1952 Rosen Mantle SGC 9.5 Final Price – Too high, too low, just right?

[parkplace33]

The Heritage 1952 Rosen Mantle SGC 9.5 sold Saturday for $12.6 million. Here is a new article about the sale: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carliep...h=6e4799033be2. I would like to get NET54’s thoughts on the price for this card.

I am in the camp of the price was too low. When I first saw the listing, I was sure it would go for close to $20 million. So while I get it was a record baseball card sale, I just thought with recent sky prices and the Mr. Mint storyline, it would have been more.

In other forums, I have seen the same argument made and here were the reasons why:

1. The grading company
2. The “toning” of the card
3. The auction house
4. Current inflation and stock market trends
5. Abundance of high end cards being recently auctioned off

I don’t think any of those really impacted the card (maybe number 5). It just a headscratcher to me on why it didn’t sell more.

What say you?

[mrreality68]

To me it was the right price.

Since it was presented at National Show, it had major press, it was in a big auction house that knows how to market and has big client base, and it had approx 30 days of bidding there was no way anyone missed it that wanted to bid.

It had a lot of movement the final day and obviously the person that had the bid prior to the winning bid was not willing to go higher indicates that is the price as of now.

Perhaps if the market goes up and/or some others decide to jump in if it comes up again soon it will go higher.

I am sure the buyer was thrilled and I am sure when he/she decides to move it down the line it will command more

[Seven]

I think it was the right price. It's not perfect, in fact I thought the card was slightly overgraded due to the provenance. Having Rosen's name attached to it, still carries some weight I believe. I'm sure whoever purchased it, is happy they got it at that price, though when you're buying a piece of cardboard for 12 Million I don't think you'd object to paying a little bit more for it.

[Exhibitman]

It's the highest price ever paid for a card, so I don't have a criticism of the price; how could I?

Is $75,000 for a PSA 1 a good price now???

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by exhibitman

it's the highest price ever paid for a card, so i don't have a criticism of the price; how could i?

Is $75,000 for a psa 1 a good price now???

hell to the no it's not !!!

[jchcollins]

Agreed, every time the "highest price ever paid for a sportscard" gets upped, it's hard to assert that whatever it is necessarily should have gone for more...

I think the goal of the person who consigned it was to just get over $10M. I would agree it was probably overgraded a tad due to the provenance, but that was still cool to see, especially the Rosen letter from 1991.

If Marshall Fogel ever parts with his PSA 10 Mantle, (he's said he will be buried with it...) I would expect that to go for considerably more.

It would be interesting to see if Ken K. ever sells the Gretzky Wagner, how that would do in comparison to this most recent '52 Mick. I think many collectors who have been around for more than 5 minutes still likely consider that the most valuable card in existence - whether it's trimmed or not.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

It's the highest price ever paid for a card, so I don't have a criticism of the price; how could I?

Is $75,000 for a PSA 1 a good price now???

Not clear to me if this has a gravitational pull on other 311s or it's just its own thing, what do people think?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by peter_spaeth

not clear to me if this has a gravitational pull on other 311s or it's just its own thing, what do people think?

fomo

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

fomo

I am neutral on the prices on the lower end going up much, very quickly, due to this sale.
They have elevated a lot, quickly and recently. But who knows? It wouldn't surprise me if I am wrong. fomo is real LOL
.

[Rare Stuff]

https://youtu.be/qBXSUVWY1Ug

Here is a close look video I took of the Rosen 52 Mantle at The National.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

fomo

Well, low and midgrade ones come up often enough in auctions, we'll know soon.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

It's the highest price ever paid for a card, so I don't have a criticism of the price; how could I?

Is $75,000 for a PSA 1 a good price now???

Judging by the 9 different PSA 1 52 Mantles on eBay priced lower than this and not selling, it is nowhere near $75K.

[Lorewalker]

I have no idea if the price is right but it was another great shot in the arm to that segment of the hobby and for SGC. I think it could cause more collectors to buy a 52 who did not already own one and it might bring newer more affluent individuals to jump into the hobby. So it could have an impact on demand, short term.

My hope is that all centered PSA 4.5s will increase in value. If not certain people's Sundays will be at risk.

[BeanTown]

Now, I’m not a Topps expert and I have never collected the 52 set. I know the Mantle is a “short print” but correct me if I’m wrong…. Didn’t they make 2 print runs or was it 3? How many Mantles are out there which are ungraded and graded.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

Now, I’m not a Topps expert and I have never collected the 52 set. I know the Mantle is a “short print” but correct me if I’m wrong…. Didn’t they make 2 print runs or was it 3? How many Mantles are out there which are ungraded and graded.

It is in the high series, the 1952 Topps high series is the shortest print run of any Topps series. Within that series it was printed twice on the sheet, along with Robinson and Thompson. So those 3 have double the population of other 1952 high numbers, but less than any other Topps cards.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

Now, I’m not a Topps expert and I have never collected the 52 set. I know the Mantle is a “short print” but correct me if I’m wrong…. Didn’t they make 2 print runs or was it 3? How many Mantles are out there which are ungraded and graded.

SGC has graded 590 Mantles, but only 3 copies at a 9 or higher (2 are 9s, and this 9.5) and PSA has graded 1,496 Mantles, which includes 8 9s (2 with qualifiers) and 3 10s.

So the total population is 2,086 graded between those 2 (plus however many Beckett has graded, though I wonder how many are still in Beckett slabs that haven't been crossed over) with (3) 10s (1) 9.5, (8) 9s, and (2) 9 qualifiers

SGC has graded only (6) at a 8 or 8.5, and PSA (35) 8s, (5) 8.5s, and (8) 8 Qualifiers.

So, its not a rare card, but its rare in high grade. Most of the other cards in the set have been graded 400-500 times by PSA and less than 100 times by SGC.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by G1911

Judging by the 9 different PSA 1 52 Mantles on eBay priced lower than this and not selling, it is nowhere near $75K.

Phew. I sold mine for about $2500 back in 2005.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Phew. I sold mine for about $2500 back in 2005.

I was going to offer you $2,600!

[oldjudge]

To me it is absolute insanity. The 9.5 sold for 18x the 7.5 which looked almost as good.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

To me it is absolute insanity. The 9.5 sold for 18x the 7.5 which looked almost as good.

i havent looked at relative POP On the card but i would say there is a lot more involved than just saying a 7 sold for this so what did a 8 sell for that

If there are 200 examples of a 7 and only 1 example of a 8 ..i would imagine there to be a huuuuge difference in price..

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

i havent looked at relative POP On the card but i would say there is a lot more involved than just saying a 7 sold for this so what did a 8 sell for that

If there are 200 examples of a 7 and only 1 example of a 8 ..i would imagine there to be a huuuuge difference in price..

Right. Any vintage in high grade starts to move exponentially the higher the grade and lower the pop. It used to amaze me when grading first started how much more a run of the mill vintage Topps card in a PSA 8 would go for over a 7. With a card like that in super high grade, you aren't looking only at eye appeal anyway in terms of the difference between the numbers on the slabs. Buy the card not the grade yes, but the people bidding on that card at the end are in an entirely different league.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Right. Any vintage in high grade starts to move exponentially the higher the grade and lower the pop. It used to amaze me when grading first started how much more a run of the mill vintage Topps card in a PSA 8 would go for over a 7. With a card like that in super high grade, you aren't looking only at eye appeal anyway in terms of the difference between the numbers on the slabs. Buy the card not the grade yes, but the people bidding on that card at the end are in an entirely different league.

right cause you sell the grade not the card......if you arent, please find me an EBAY listing for a card for sale that say ' card is overgraded and not due for a bump, but do for crossover drop'

[oldjudge]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

i havent looked at relative POP On the card but i would say there is a lot more involved than just saying a 7 sold for this so what did a 8 sell for that

If there are 200 examples of a 7 and only 1 example of a 8 ..i would imagine there to be a huuuuge difference in price..

Who cares what the pop is--look at the card. Wake up--the king has no clothing.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Who cares what the pop is--look at the card. Wake up--the king has no clothing.

Jay - You & I certainly agree that overall “eye appeal” should rule versus a “numbers game”. Unfortunately, when it comes to extremely low pop/highest graded iconic cards, the “numbers” steal the show and nothing is ever going to change that notion.

Regarding the $12.6 million figure, I think it borders on insanity to think that number is a so-called disappointment. To the best of my knowledge, the recent $7.25 million private sale of an SGC 2 T206 Wagner was the previous highest recorded sports memorabilia sale. The $12.6 million figure is a 74% increase over that Wagner sale, a mind-blowing spike and certainly a huge boost to an already red-hot sports card market. Every hobbyist should be celebrating this sale. It is truly a landmark event that may transcend the hobby to another level.

[drmondobueno]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Who cares what the pop is--look at the card. Wake up--the king has no clothing.

+1

[hcv123]

I think there are 2 factors to consider in the question.

A) Current market value. As has been previously stated the possibility that a potential buyer of the card did not see it is so miniscule that I think (in this case) it is fair to say all willing buyers were able to place bids and the market (those buyers) set the current fair market value. Regarding the list of comments on other threads:

1. The grading company - This is an interesting one. As PSA has no 9.5 grade it would be difficult to compare apples to apples. I do believe a PSA 10 would sell for more. In general for post war cards PSA cards at comparable grades command stronger prices. I do not think a PSA 9 would have gotten close to 12.6M.

2. The “toning” of the card - a non factor - The card is drop dead incredible!

3. The auction house - a non factor - while there are other houses that it might have done as well at, I do not believe given (as previously stated) the amount of press and visibility this particular card had that the result would have been higher in any other auction house.

4. Current inflation and stock market trends - I suspect that in most cases a person who can afford to invest 12.6 million in a baseball card, is both wealthy and diversified enough that both inflation and the stock market were not a factor.

5. Abundance of high end cards being recently auctioned off - Again a non factor - this is a card on a whole other level. Certainly the most Iconic post war card.


B) The other factor that I haven't seen mentioned yet is the relative value of baseball cards compared to other collectible categories. In that regard, I think the baseball card hobby is just getting warmed up. I see demand continuing to grow, especially so for the higher-end cards most of which are in ridiculously low supply relative to the demand. When I think about art or sculpture for example, 12.6 Million for one of the top 4 examples of one of the most iconic and high demand cards in the hobby just doesn't seem like that much money.

In conclusion - I think the buyers fairly set the current market on the card and I think the hobby has a lot further to grow! As an aside, pre auction I also thought the card had a really good chance of going north of 15M.

[53toppscollector]

It isn't the hot take, but I think honestly the price is always the "right" price, because price is driven by supply and demand. This auction was hyped up, the card was a very rare offering, and it smashed the previous record. This was the price the market demanded right now. With outlier cards like this, it is hard to know what the impact will be across the hobby, or even for a 1952 Mantle in a different grade. Will some casual collectors see the articles about this sale and decide they need to go and get a lower grade copy of the card now, thus bumping the prices up? Maybe, maybe not.

What will be interesting is to see what kinds of cards are offered up via the big auction houses over the next 6 months or so. Will this sale bring other high grade copies of rare cards to market to try and capitalize on this? Maybe, maybe not. I think Ken Kendrick has said he has no interest in selling his Wagner or Mantle, for example.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by hcv123

I do not think a PSA 9 would have gotten close to 12.6M.

Even though the PSA 8 went for almost 3 Million a couple years ago?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by hcv123

B) The other factor that I haven't seen mentioned yet is the relative value of baseball cards compared to other collectible categories. In that regard, I think the baseball card hobby is just getting warmed up. I see demand continuing to grow, especially so for the higher-end cards most of which are in ridiculously low supply relative to the demand. When I think about art or sculpture for example, 12.6 Million for one of the top 4 examples of one of the most iconic and high demand cards in the hobby just doesn't seem like that much money.

I hesitate to disagree with Howard, because he's a good friend, and has helped me immeasurably to get close to finishing my Master Mays set. He's also been a tremendous font of knowledge about almost every regional and oddball issue that is out there. And he's a true gentleman, so the last thing I want to do is start some sort of a Net54 spat, rife with ad hominem attacks, personal insults, and dirty words like "investor". So hopefully he will excuse my disagreeing with him.

But I sure hope he's wrong! Simply because when prices go up, it means that my dollars don't stretch as far when it comes to picking up great pieces for my own collection.

When I think about items with insane prices that are unmoored from reality, typically I think about things like original artwork, high end real estate in Vail (or her sister cities, of which there are many), wineries in Napa, rare classic cars, etc. When it comes to these items, I would posit that the biggest factors are:

1) Universality - they are sought by rich people around the world with money to burn.

2) They are extreme status symbols. There's nothing quite like owning an original DaVinci to show to the world and especially your filthy rich friends that you're a big deal, and possibly an even bigger deal than your other filthy rich friends.

I would argue that in many ways, at least on the baseball side, most of our cards don't have universal appeal. While certainly baseball is played outside of the U.S., including in South Korea, Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, and all around Latin America, I'm not convinced that for crazy rich people from those areas, collecting cards from U.S. players is going to be a huge draw. Not to mention all of the crazy rich people with money to burn from most of the rest of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, etc., just aren't going to be as excited to acquire American baseball cards compared to original artwork from a master.

When it comes to status symbols, baseball cards just don't have quite the same cache and panache as many of the other items that are out there. They're certainly not nearly as visible, and therefore usually not nearly as public. While I'm a poor excuse for a coastal elite, whether you're talking about the old money crowd, or even the new money crowd with all of the tech money, I just don't get the sense that a lot of them are looking to spend a lot of cash on our world. I would surmise that in some ways, those groups would not get the same amount of street cred amongst their peers from buying high-end baseball cards that they would get from buying other high-end items.

At the same time, $12M already has a lot of crazy priced into it. As others have observed, the odds are good that the Gretzky T206 Wagner or some of the PSA 10 1952T Mantles would probably fetch a higher price - possibly $20M, $50M, or more. And obviously at those prices, there are only so many houses in Vail, original pieces of art, and classic cars that would routinely fetch those prices.

So bottom line for me is that I have a hard time really seeing that our world will truly rival some of those other markets in terms of prices. But at the same time, maybe we're already kinda sorta there!

Not that I haven't been wrong before, and the odds are good that I will certainly be wrong again. But I really hope that I'm not wrong about this.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

To me it is absolute insanity. The 9.5 sold for 18x the 7.5 which looked almost as good.

totally agree...the 7.5 was the smarter buy!!!!!

TPGing is an opinion...somewhat arbitrary remember. An 8 today is a 7 tomorrow. a 10 tomorrow was a 9 yesterday.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

totally agree...the 7.5 was the smarter buy!!!!!

TPGing is an opinion...somewhat arbitrary remember. An 8 today is a 7 tomorrow. a 10 tomorrow was a 9 yesterday.

Spoken like a collector. An investor would evaluate the flip as much as or more than the card.

[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

The Heritage 1952 Rosen Mantle SGC 9.5 sold Saturday for $12.6 million. Here is a new article about the sale: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carliep...h=6e4799033be2. I would like to get NET54’s thoughts on the price for this card.

I am in the camp of the price was too low. When I first saw the listing, I was sure it would go for close to $20 million. So while I get it was a record baseball card sale, I just thought with recent sky prices and the Mr. Mint storyline, it would have been more.

In other forums, I have seen the same argument made and here were the reasons why:

1. The grading company
2. The “toning” of the card
3. The auction house
4. Current inflation and stock market trends
5. Abundance of high end cards being recently auctioned off

I don’t think any of those really impacted the card (maybe number 5). It just a headscratcher to me on why it didn’t sell more.

What say you?

Something such as this Mantle are so far out of my range of owning, I just cannot say one way or another. It is like hitting the lottery on one side and buying a crapload of tickets on the other side and being off by one on each of the 6 numbers.

Just cannot begin to fathom if it is too much, not enough, or just right.

I'll stick to porridge.

Cheers,

Butch

[Shoeless Moe]

I think we can all agree on whoever bought the card is nuts.

Or if you prefer eccentric.

Or a billionaire who wipes his ass with hundred dollar bills.

It's a frickin' piece of cardboard that was mass produced.

[Sean]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

I think we can all agree on whoever bought the card is nuts.

Or if you prefer eccentric.

Or a billionaire who wipes his ass with hundred dollar bills.

It's a frickin' piece of cardboard that was mass produced.

Yes, someone traded a lot of pictures of dead presidents for one picture of a dead baseball player. Not really life and death stuff.