the trouble with cards that don't often come to market

[abothebear]

I may have to sell or trade some of my collection in the near future. My collection is by no means extensive or particularly valuable. But of the few cards I have, some are somewhat rare. And by rare I mean that I can find almost no recent sales on ebay of them, or of anything resembling them. And as someone who does not buy or sell very often, and never in auctions outside of ebay, I do not know my way around the "adult table." There have been several times lately when I've made a move to sell or trade and been paralyzed about what to do in terms of value. I don't want to overvalue, yet I can't afford to undervalue. I also don't sell on ebay, so I am afraid to put something there and not have bidders because of having no sales history to inspire confidence in bidders.

One example is the !936 Goudey Type 3 (borderless) Premiums. There are almost no sales listed on ebay for any of these cards. The PSA population is extremely low. I happen to have a few that are in surprisingly good condition. They are not graded, but would likely grade at or above the top in the pop. Two are HOFers and the other is nearly so. I imagine there aren't too many collectors out there clamoring for this set, but I would like to find them. And if I had to sell one of the HOFers in particular, I am sure there would be player collectors interested in it.

Another one (low-value category) is a low-condition MP&co 3-card strip with 2 HOFERs on it. MP&Cos were inexpensive, but are on the rise. I have seen several multi-card strips before, so I know they are not particularly rare, but there is no ebay sales history to draw from.

And there are others.

So my questions are these...

What do y'all do to establish a good market value for these kinds of cards when trying to price them fairly for both buyer and seller?

If I sell or trade them here, how do people generally consider sales listings with listed price "or best offer"? Have sellers had success with that method? Do buyers make offers?

Lastly, I have a Churman's Ruth, but it is ungraded. I hate to get it graded, though I don't mind the look of the SGC slabs. I suppose if I had to sell that one, graded would be necessary? or not? I guess an add-on to this question would be should I get the Goudey Type 3s graded if I am selling or trading? And is there a line where grading doesn't matter for sales, or it is better to not grade (I have a Harrington's ice cream card in lower-condition, for example)?

Thank you for your help!

.

[rand1com]

VCP has the limited pricing for graded cards in the 1936 Goudey Borderless set. I see that a Jimmie Foxx in a 6 sold for $1100 or so in 2022.

You did not say which HOFers you have but there are only 5 in the set and Foxx is by far the best.

As you stated, it is difficult to price cards like this. True auctions generally garner the best results but they would need to be in a major auction to bring in the most potential bidders and sometimes even rare items fall through the cracks.

You can always throw up a price you would be happy with on here and see if there is any interest.

To be honest, the vast majority of items for sale here do not sell because of high pricing.

I know because I list a few items here from time to time and rarely sell anything even though I think I price reasonably. That is because I am the seller. I tend to overvalue my own items and undervalue everyone else's items. Human nature! Ha.Ha.

If you ever undervalue an item, it sells immediately on here but that does not happen all that often.

I have probably listed 25 or so items over the last year and sold a couple of them. Needless to say, someone thought they were priced fairly in those instances but not in the vast majority of cases.

My advise would be to post clear scans and an asking price you can live with and see if you get any nibbles. If not, no harm.

Just be sure the price you list is one you can live with if someone is willing to pay it on here.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by rand1com

I know because I list a few items here from time to time and rarely sell anything even though I think I price reasonably. That is because I am the seller. I tend to overvalue my own items and undervalue everyone else's items. Human nature! Ha.Ha.

I am so impressed by your self awareness and honesty!

[brunswickreeves]

You could consign them to online auction, and set a minimum that you would accept. This way, the market will determine the value and price accordingly, but you can also predetermine what you would effectively purchase for at the min if you were the buyer.

[raulus]

I would posit that there are two types of rare items:

1) stuff that everyone knows and wants
2) stuff that is obscure with thin demand

I suppose there will always be stuff that falls between these two poles as well, which means you get to guess about which approach will yield the better result.

An example of #1 is the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth. Or the T206 Wagner.

An example of #2 might be a Venezuelan topps issue. Or maybe Bazooka complete boxes. Among many others, of course.

For group #1, an auction is almost always going to be a brilliant approach, particularly when the market is strong and everyone seems determined to go nuts paying astronomical prices for these items. List it, get out of the way, and watch the price go to the moon.

For group #2, my experience is that auctions are often a poor way to sell. Often the buyer is either someone who just happens to be in the market at that time for that precise item, or an opportunistic buyer who knows that they can get it for a steal now and then wait patiently for the right buyer to come along who will pay a king’s ransom to buy it and avoid having to wait years or decades for another one to come onto the market. Unfortunately, when it comes to the auction format, you need multiple highly motivated bidders who all can’t live without your item. The odds of that happening for items in group #2 tend to be very much hit or miss.

Naturally, if you’re going to sell an item from group #2 outside of an auction setting, then you will probably need to pack your patience, as you might need to be willing to wait months or years before someone comes along who is willing to pay a price that you think is fair. Of course, selling through an auction assures that you sell on a specific timeline, but might easily result in the item selling for a relative bargain.

That’s the trade-off, and unfortunately when you’re selling items from group #2, your options are often to go fast and take your chances with the auction results, or go slow with more control, but a much longer timeframe outside of an auction.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by raulus

I would posit that there are two types of rare items:

1) stuff that everyone knows and wants
2) stuff that is obscure with thin demand

I suppose there will always be stuff that falls between these two poles as well, which means you get to guess about which approach will yield the better result.

An example of #1 is the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth. Or the T206 Wagner.

An example of #2 might be a Venezuelan topps issue. Or maybe Bazooka complete boxes. Among many others, of course.

For group #1, an auction is almost always going to be a brilliant approach, particularly when the market is strong and everyone seems determined to go nuts paying astronomical prices for these items. List it, get out of the way, and watch the price go to the moon.

For group #2, my experience is that auctions are often a poor way to sell. Often the buyer is either someone who just happens to be in the market at that time for that precise item, or an opportunistic buyer who knows that they can get it for a steal now and then wait patiently for the right buyer to come along who will pay a king’s ransom to buy it and avoid having to wait years or decades for another one to come onto the market. Unfortunately, when it comes to the auction format, you need multiple highly motivated bidders who all can’t live without your item. The odds of that happening for items in group #2 tend to be very much hit or miss.

Naturally, if you’re going to sell an item from group #2 outside of an auction setting, then you will probably need to pack your patience, as you might need to be willing to wait months or years before someone comes along who is willing to pay a price that you think is fair. Of course, selling through an auction assures that you sell on a specific timeline, but might easily result in the item selling for a relative bargain.

That’s the trade-off, and unfortunately when you’re selling items from group #2, your options are often to go fast and take your chances with the auction results, or go slow with more control, but a much longer timeframe outside of an auction.

The part I made bold above is spot on in my 35+ years of experience. I have several hundred cards that are only known or less than 5 known. I have found they usually sell for peanuts when auctioned or for decent money when you find the right buyer. Problem is that right buyer might take many many years to find.

So if needing to sell I would list on here first at your best price. Then move them to eBay at your best BIN price. Then list on eBay as a 10 day auction starting on a Thursday night starting at the min you would take. Then as last resort send to an AH.

[abothebear]

Originally Posted by raulus

I would posit that there are two types of rare items:

1) stuff that everyone knows and wants
2) stuff that is obscure with thin demand

For group #2, my experience is that auctions are often a poor way to sell. Often the buyer is either someone who just happens to be in the market at that time for that precise item, or an opportunistic buyer who knows that they can get it for a steal now and then wait patiently for the right buyer to come along who will pay a king’s ransom to buy it and avoid having to wait years or decades for another one to come onto the market. Unfortunately, when it comes to the auction format, you need multiple highly motivated bidders who all can’t live without your item. The odds of that happening for items in group #2 tend to be very much hit or miss.

Yes, this is my fear. I don’t need to squeeze maximum value out of these cards, but I also don’t want to take a bath on them either. I’ve been burned trying to auction rare cards of category 2 variety to the wrong audience before. I’ve also benefited being on the other side. I tried to auction two cards here one time and got no bids. In the right time and place, they could have gone for 4x the opening bud. I ended up selling or trading them, but still for much lower than they would have gone in the proper setting.

Thanks for all of the advice so far, everyone, This is helpful.

.

[Leon]

Just reading through this thread. Nice analysis.

Originally Posted by raulus

I would posit that there are two types of rare items:

1) stuff that everyone knows and wants
2) stuff that is obscure with thin demand

I suppose there will always be stuff that falls between these two poles as well, which means you get to guess about which approach will yield the better result.

An example of #1 is the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth. Or the T206 Wagner.

An example of #2 might be a Venezuelan topps issue. Or maybe Bazooka complete boxes. Among many others, of course.

For group #1, an auction is almost always going to be a brilliant approach, particularly when the market is strong and everyone seems determined to go nuts paying astronomical prices for these items. List it, get out of the way, and watch the price go to the moon.

For group #2, my experience is that auctions are often a poor way to sell. Often the buyer is either someone who just happens to be in the market at that time for that precise item, or an opportunistic buyer who knows that they can get it for a steal now and then wait patiently for the right buyer to come along who will pay a king’s ransom to buy it and avoid having to wait years or decades for another one to come onto the market. Unfortunately, when it comes to the auction format, you need multiple highly motivated bidders who all can’t live without your item. The odds of that happening for items in group #2 tend to be very much hit or miss.

Naturally, if you’re going to sell an item from group #2 outside of an auction setting, then you will probably need to pack your patience, as you might need to be willing to wait months or years before someone comes along who is willing to pay a price that you think is fair. Of course, selling through an auction assures that you sell on a specific timeline, but might easily result in the item selling for a relative bargain.

That’s the trade-off, and unfortunately when you’re selling items from group #2, your options are often to go fast and take your chances with the auction results, or go slow with more control, but a much longer timeframe outside of an auction.

[isiahfan]

Originally Posted by raulus

I would posit that there are two types of rare items:

1) stuff that everyone knows and wants
2) stuff that is obscure with thin demand

I suppose there will always be stuff that falls between these two poles as well, which means you get to guess about which approach will yield the better result.

An example of #1 is the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth. Or the T206 Wagner.

An example of #2 might be a Venezuelan topps issue. Or maybe Bazooka complete boxes. Among many others, of course.

For group #1, an auction is almost always going to be a brilliant approach, particularly when the market is strong and everyone seems determined to go nuts paying astronomical prices for these items. List it, get out of the way, and watch the price go to the moon.

For group #2, my experience is that auctions are often a poor way to sell. Often the buyer is either someone who just happens to be in the market at that time for that precise item, or an opportunistic buyer who knows that they can get it for a steal now and then wait patiently for the right buyer to come along who will pay a king’s ransom to buy it and avoid having to wait years or decades for another one to come onto the market. Unfortunately, when it comes to the auction format, you need multiple highly motivated bidders who all can’t live without your item. The odds of that happening for items in group #2 tend to be very much hit or miss.

Naturally, if you’re going to sell an item from group #2 outside of an auction setting, then you will probably need to pack your patience, as you might need to be willing to wait months or years before someone comes along who is willing to pay a price that you think is fair. Of course, selling through an auction assures that you sell on a specific timeline, but might easily result in the item selling for a relative bargain.

That’s the trade-off, and unfortunately when you’re selling items from group #2, your options are often to go fast and take your chances with the auction results, or go slow with more control, but a much longer timeframe outside of an auction.

I may be off on this...as I am not a big auction guy either....but I agree with this statement on #2...If it is semi-rare/rare and not well known...only a select group will be interetsed....depending on the era of the card a lot of PCers don't even use auction houses...but I seem to think that almost everyone checks eBay...except may for the few extreme high $ collectors. I think IMO my point is ...on average...that if you list on eBay you will miss fewer potential buyers than if you go with an auction house....plus there is only one eBay and there are dozens of AH.

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by rand1com

To be honest, the vast majority of items for sale here do not sell because of high pricing.

I know because I list a few items here from time to time and rarely sell anything even though I think I price reasonably. That is because I am the seller. I tend to overvalue my own items and undervalue everyone else's items.

Reasonably priced cards typically sell within a few days. However, high-priced cards do not, and the seller’s thread typically contains several “bump” or “ttt” posts. Surprisingly, the seller sometimes won’t even lower the price even after the fourth bump or ttt post. How did Einstein define insanity?

eBay’s fees are right around 15%. It’s has millions of eyes viewing items. Net54 may have several hundred eyes viewing a card. So, if the average eBay sale price is $100.00, list the card at $85.00 or $90.00. It’s a win-win. The seller nets more than an eBay sale, and the buyer saves money.

It’s not rocket science. Unless it’s a rare item or has extremely high eye-appeal, I’ll never pay eBay prices for a card listed on this site. Why would anyone?

[Touch'EmAll]

To realize best prices, time of year also matters. Selling in March & April always seem to be strong sales months.

eBay will have the most eyes looking at your items. For rare stuff, all it may take is a few extra eyes looking/bidding to help get a nice price.

A reputable (supposedly) ebay dealer who often offers old vintage/Pre-War cards may be a smart way to go. They also can take hassles out of your hands and make selling the easiest on you. And the speed at which you get paid may be fast this way as well. I may be wrong, but consigning to an eBay seller may cost you no more in fees than doing it yourself.

[Mungo Hungo]

At one time, eBay had a section allowing people to basically post their want lists. COMC has promised before to do that. But it doesn't look like there's any buy-sell site that really offers anything like that at the moment. Frustrating, because plenty of both buyers and sellers would benefit from that.

[gabrinus]

Just picked up this rare back and quite frankly the guy who sold it to me was a bit of a hard ass...Jerry

[brian1961]

From my limited experience, the trouble with cards that don't often come to market, ASSUMING they are scarce, rare, and desirable, distills to forcing yourself to be patient finding the right buyer who desperately wants the item.

Quoting from NEVER CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN, page 428:

"Bill Mastro said something that's appropriate here - "It's like so many things in the hobby; maybe 99 percent isn't worth a lot of money, but the 1 percent that is, is overlooked. ... And people need to understand how to find the 1 percent." (6) As I intimated , much of the material I shared is not generally known, even if bits of it have appeared in auction catalogs. Adding these vital pieces of the puzzle [through reading Never Cheaper By the Dozen] now provides you with a much clearer picture of the lure and magic of these once 'free prizes'. Had you not know anything about regionals, nor understood the undercurrent fascination behind them, you'd be apt to overlook them, or ignorantly relegate them as oddball or much less important than mainstream issues."

Just some food for thought. Cheers. --- Brian Powell