|
|
#1
|
||||
|
||||
The Long-Term Future of Vintage Cards
Wanted to get some seasoned collector's opinions on this - more just for conversation fodder as I know no one can predict the future and many factors are at play here (economy, next generation's interest in baseball/collectibles). What do you think the long-term (25-50 years) future is for vintage baseball cards.
Alot of people speculate that someone like me is part of the current up-tick bubble - 40 year old man who collected junk cards as a kid now with more financial stability getting back into a hobby for childhood nostalgia and small time side investment for next generation. However, I think I'm a little unique in that I grew up with Jose Canseco, Will Clark and Ken Griffey but now that I am back into collecting enjoy chasing low-mid grade cards of HOFers like Aaron, Mays and Clemente who I never saw play and honestly my dad was a bit of a Mantle fan but not exactly the type to talk at length about baseball greats. I love the history of the game and art of vintage cards and hoping to instill this in my kids. But if the majority of vintage collectors currently are more in baby boomer range does that mean 25+ years from now there will be little base support collecting vintage cards at all? Is there any sense younger collectors are gravitating more to vintage or still chasing blue and purple refractor auto cards (or more likely not interested in cards at all as dealers not kids really drive that market). Will cards in general go the way of stamps and coins or is there something unique about cards that will there always be strong given their robust history? Will there be a resurgence of interest in tangible, historic collections as the digital age progresses or will the more millennial attitude prevail that there is nothing inherently valuable about a piece of cardboard as it has no practical utility? Will a box of PSA 8 Aarons some day sit next to a box of Hummels at a flea market for $5 apiece? Instead of stores that start "that $500 card used to be in the spokes of my bicycle" will we tell stories that start "that $2 card used to be in my safety deposit box encased in plastic?" |
#2
|
||||
|
||||
This hobby is unique in its sense of history, reverence of the sport's greats, and how it translates into collecting activity. I never saw Babe Ruth play; he died long before I was born. Doesn't matter. The history keeps him alive and his cards are more desired now than ever before. The luster is never going to wear off Aaron, Robinson, Clemente, Mantle, Ruth, Cobb, etc. The modern collectors playing pack lotto today will be drawn to the older cards eventually.
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... Last edited by Exhibitman; 09-20-2019 at 11:17 AM. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
I do not have the slightest idea myself on what the card market will be doing in 25 years, and won't live to find out, but I know from hanging out here for awhile there will be no shortage of folks with answers to your question.
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
I might live to see what happens in 25 years.
If it's anything like the last 40 + it's going to be interesting. |
#5
|
||||
|
||||
+1
__________________
. "A life is not important except in the impact it has on others lives" - Jackie Robinson “If you have a chance to make life better for others and fail to do so, you are wasting your time on this earth.”- Roberto Clemente |
#6
|
||||
|
||||
I am going to be 56 years old this year (freakin' A...really???) and have been collecting since I was nine years old. I have been a card show promoter, a card store owner, collector, show dealer and probably about almost all one can be in this hobby and let me just say 25 years ago they were still asking this same question.
The line that designated vintage has now moved to the early 80's, those guys who were not supposed to be collecting the 50's cards because we never saw the players play are now collecting the 50's and beyond (like me) and the hobby is now stronger than ever despite the latest scandals. If you are asking what the long term effects on time will be to vintage cards, I Will say now what many said 25 years ago. There may be a few less collectors but we have to get the kids involved now to ensure hobby growth. Either way, if I had to bet a few Ripken rookies on it I would say that the hobby and more notably, vintage cards will be just as popular then as they are now. I hope I live long enough to see my predictions come true. |
#7
|
||||
|
||||
I am 42 and also grew up with Canseco, etc but now just collect cards of guys I never saw play.
I am not sure. Demographics suggest a negative price correction when the boomers pass on simply because there are so many of them and not enough gen Xers or millenials to fill their shoes, even if they collect as much on average, which is itself questionable. With pre war vintage I don’t think there will be much impact since supply is so low, but stuff from the 50s and 60s will likely take a hit. Beyond that....who knows? Maybe AI will mess up society so much that humans don’t collect anything 50 years from now. Or maybe it will make us collect more than we do now? We are entering uncharted waters and history doesn’t offer much of a useful guide. My daughter (just shy of 2 years old) collects cards featuring pictures of cute puppies on them though, so maybe the upcoming generation will still collect cards after all!
__________________
My blog about collecting cards in Japan: https://baseballcardsinjapan.blogspot.jp/ |
#8
|
||||
|
||||
Well, according to John Tesh radio, young millenials are turning back to vintage. They have restored the polaroid camera to prominence, and they have even recharged the disposable camera industry. So it is quite possible that the generation known for ruining fast food restaurants and mega box stores will actually save a couple hobbies.
As for my opinion about 1980-1993 cards, I think you will find that Hall of Famers' cards will increase, but the rest will be left in the dust. It's slowly happening now. What I think will actually bounce back in value will be Starting Lineup figurines. How many of those will still be in boxes in 25 years? My son saw mine and asked if he could play with them. Since they hold almost no value, I said sure. Starting Lineup figures, with card and/or poster will make a comeback.
__________________
Barry Larkin, Joey Votto, Tris Speaker, 1930-45 Cincinnati Reds, T206 Cincinnati Successful deals with: Banksfan14, Brianp-beme, Bumpus Jones, Dacubfan (x5), Dstrawberryfan39, Ed_Hutchinson, Fballguy, fusorcruiser (x2), GoCalBears, Gorditadog, Luke, MikeKam, Moosedog, Nineunder71, Powdered H20, PSU, Ronniehatesjazz, Roarfrom34, Sebie43, Seven, and Wondo |
#9
|
||||
|
||||
LOL - too funny!
__________________
Successful transactions with: Chesboro41, jimivintage, Bocabirdman, marcdelpercio, Jollyelm, Smanzari, asoriano, pclpads, joem36, nolemmings, t206blogcom, Northviewcats, Xplainer, Kickstand19, GrayGhost, btcarfango, Brian Van Horn, USMC09, G36, scotgreb, tere1071, kurri17, wrm, David James, tjenkins, SteveWhite, OhioCard Collector, sysks22, ejstel. Marty |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
I've heard stars will go up in value. But what about complete sets? Are people going to care about common player A or B? Or high # A or B? Just curious. I've started working on sets (57, 58 and 62), but I'm not sure I want to continue. Just seems those are so numerous and easy to find. I mean, I'm paying $1 for Ex condition 1957s and $3 for Ex condition 1962 Topps high #s. Where does the value start?
__________________
Anyone on Twitter? Here's my new handle @1millionrangers I have done deals with: snowman, exhibitman, roquan, vintagetoppscards, bobsbbcards, sayitaintso, tsp06, gorditadogg, 4reals, bnorth, clydepepper, jcfowler6, jimmer77, tsp06, Bartholomew_Bump_Bailey, swk473 plus others. |
#11
|
||||
|
||||
Supply and demand will drive things as always. Not trying to reduce this to an economic-only issue but what I've seen since 1970 is that most people like to collect what they think will retain value.
We know the supply isn't going to change much so the more unknown factor will be demand. Possibly less interested collectors percentage-wise going forward but increasing population so demand overall could remain much like it is today. Or not. LOL Will future generations have the same reverence for pre-WWII baseball? Or pre-1980 for that matter? Who knows surely not me.
__________________
Past transactions with ALR-Bishop, Fleerfan, Leerob538, Northviewcats, wondo, EconTeachert205 "Collectors were supposedly enjoying the pure hobby of baseball card collecting, but they were also concerned with the monetary value of their collections." House of Cards by John Bloom, 1997. |
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
Last edited by JUrsaner; 04-21-2020 at 06:45 PM. |
#13
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
I started collecting as a kid during the junk wax era. Took many bicycle rides down to the neighborhood liquor store to get my "weekly fix" of late '80s/early '90s Topps wax packs. It was like hitting the jackpot when I scored a good deal on some late '70s to mid '80s cards. Spent many hours staring at those unattainable '50s and '60s Clemente Aaron Mantle Mays Koufax etc. cards displayed behind the glass at local card shops. Fell out of the hobby after the junk wax bust of the early '90s, and then got back into collecting about 10 years ago, mostly affordable collector-grade stuff I found online. I find it to be an enjoyable hobby tied to a game I've loved since playing little league as a kid. I never buy to flip, although I have sold cards a few times on Ebay to free up a little cash, or when I decided to shift my collecting focus to a different niche or era on a couple of occasions. It's still fun to flip through my collection from time to time, admiring the history/nostalgia of the player images, and the stats and trivia on the backs. As far as the investment aspect is concerned, I'd say that it holds about 50% of the weight in my purchase decisions. It is comforting to know that I'll be able to liquidate some of my collection someday, if the need ever arises. |
#14
|
|||
|
|||
Hummels
From OP: “Will a box of PSA 8 Aarons some day sit next to a box of Hummels at a flea market for $5 apiece?” Ouch - that definitely made me wince! You are a wordsmith sir!
|
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Best Long Term Investment for $1000??? | yankee4jc | Postwar Baseball Cards Forum (Pre-1980) | 72 | 04-03-2019 12:46 PM |
Your thoughts on sharpie long term | homerunhitter | Autograph Forum- Primarily Sports | 11 | 01-11-2018 07:13 AM |
Best long term storage for vintage | IgnatiusJReilly | Postwar Baseball Cards Forum (Pre-1980) | 15 | 12-03-2017 11:34 AM |
Long term trends | theshleps | Autograph Forum- Primarily Sports | 10 | 10-07-2015 10:42 AM |
What is the long-term value of Game-Used cards? | michael3322 | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 46 | 12-28-2010 06:44 PM |