Vintage Set Breaks in 2023

[parkplace33]

One surprise I have seen in the card collecting community this year is the amount of online vintage set breaks. For those not familiar, you basically buy a spot to get a card from a set. Here is an example:

1939 Play Ball Set Break

Set is worth $10,000 (estimate)

162 cards in the set

$10,000 divided by 162 cards = $62 a spot

You buy in at $62 dollars to get a randomly drawn card from the break. Of course, you could get the Williams or Dimaggio or other HOFers or you could just get a common card.

It will be interesting to see if the trend continues in 2023.

[skelly423]

I'm skeptical about these types of auctions. There are plenty of bad actors out there who will gladly parcel off a few commons, and never send the big cards out (or send the big cards to friends who bought into the same break).

In theory it's a great way to get major cards for cheap, but that only works if the auction is honest, and sadly I'd wager the vast majority aren't.

[rjackson44]

run fast from these

[Rich Falvo]

I've done a handful of these, though not in a few years. I wouldn't have a problem doing it again from a dealer I am familiar with. The reputable ones broadcast the draw live and record it.

I have to say, the '52 Topps set break I participated in got pretty exciting when my name still hadn't been announced before reaching the high number series. I ended up getting a card numbered in the 330's if I remember correctly.

[ullmandds]

not for me...but...it'd be cool to see a t206 break!

[x2drich2000]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

not for me...but...it'd be cool to see a t206 break!

Likewise, not for me. Out of curiosity, I ran the numbers based on the T206 set in the last LOTG auction. Assuming a 20% commission/profit for the owner/breaker:

Hammer w/bp = $79000
20% breakers take = $15800
Total set price = $94800
520 spots = $182.30 /spot

Definitely doesn't seem completely unreasonable to me, but that's a lot of spots to fill.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Rich Falvo

I've done a handful of these, though not in a few years. I wouldn't have a problem doing it again from a dealer I am familiar with. The reputable ones broadcast the draw live and record it.

I have to say, the '52 Topps set break I participated in got pretty exciting when my name still hadn't been announced before reaching the high number series. I ended up getting a card numbered in the 330's if I remember correctly.

I guess everyone wanted to be 311 that draw.

[Rich Falvo]

Originally Posted by Fred

I guess everyone wanted to be 311 that draw.

Definitely, but there are many cards in the set worth more than the buy-in was. I sold the common I got and basically broke even.

[Fred]

I've never participated in something like this. How does it work? They fill all the slots and then start drawing number? I think I've heard that they do these live over a webcast to give an appearance of being completely "above board" on the actual drawing.

Do some of the companies or individuals that we hear have ethics issues try to do these set breaks? If so, do people blindly trust those people to complete the drawings?

Any links that can be provided to different set break videos?

[Rich Falvo]

Originally Posted by Fred

I've never participated in something like this. How does it work? They fill all the slots and then start drawing number? I think I've heard that they do these live over a webcast to give an appearance of being completely "above board" on the actual drawing.

Do some of the companies or individuals that we hear have ethics issues try to do these set breaks? If so, do people blindly trust those people to complete the drawings?

Any links that can be provided to different set break videos?

Check out Burl's Sports. They do a lot of these.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

One surprise I have seen in the card collecting community this year is the amount of online vintage set breaks. For those not familiar, you basically buy a spot to get a card from a set. Here is an example:

1939 Play Ball Set Break

Set is worth $10,000 (estimate)

162 cards in the set

$10,000 divided by 162 cards = $62 a spot

You buy in at $62 dollars to get a randomly drawn card from the break. Of course, you could get the Williams or Dimaggio or other HOFers or you could just get a common card.

It will be interesting to see if the trend continues in 2023.

I have been in a few. Mainly got commons because that is what the odds favor. Got a rally nice HOFer in one break so basically I have got lucky and broke even.

To me it is like doing group submissions. A guaranteed win for the one doing it. I can't imagine a scenario that either don't make some cash/free submissions.