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#1
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Long term trends
I am curious what you folks think of long term trends say 10 years down the road. As many of us get older and scale down alittle do you think there will be as many set collectors of the cards from the 1930's through 1960'? We might be losing more collectors than we are gaining new ones. The easy deceased HOFers- Terry, Hubbell etc have not been appreciating except on premium items. I think there will always be lots of HOF collectors but once a new guy comes in say Barney Dreyfuss or Billy Southworth and there is enough supply for those of us that want one the prices drops by half or more and then stabilizes.
I do not collect for investment- just for enjoyment but as I downsize some of the niche collection I have been selling like many of my Jewish items I took large losses but I did well on rarer non HOF cards from the 50's to set collectors (but will they still be around in 10 years). Also I tend to collect guys on real oddball cards like when I saw Ken Griffey Jr in person and he actually signed I got him on a Japanese Konami card. Might be the only signed one out there but doesn't seem like it is worth as much as a topps card. I still actively buy HOFers and some other items which I will pass down someday to my son who collected with me and knows baseball history So to you guys out there what do you see happening? I will be away from my computer for a few days so won't be able to contribute more to this till I get back but anxious to here your views. |
#2
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One trend I have noticed over the past 10 years is that the "completist" collector is going the way of the Dodo. By completist, I mean collectors that had to have the entire "set" of whatever. In my view, this applies across all the hobbies and genres I collect. Not just sports.
Now, collectors are more frequently focusing on the big names, classic covers (in comic books), moonwalkers only (in space autographs)... the "hot" item de jour. Once the completists are nearly gone, this will leave many previously obscure, yet highly desirable, items in the dust.
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Steve Zarelli Space Authentication Zarelli Space Authentication on Facebook Follow me on Twitter My blog: The Collecting Obsession |
#3
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For the high end items I think their will always be a market but not sure on the rest of the items.
Anyone that has tried to get a complete signed set have had "white whales" that they had to pay a lot money to get. I am working on a 1957 set and at some point I am probably going to end my quest not because it is completed but because of money and looking at the long term value of selling it at some point (we all end up selling our stuff at the end as we can't take it to the grave) For example on eBay right now their is a nice Danny O'Connell being sold for $1200. Yes I need it for my set but also at the same time how easy in the future is that card going to be able to be sold versus $1200 worth of signed Mantle, Mays, or Aaron items. In general I think the hobby is dying with the young kids. They no longer save their allowance to go back packs of cards. |
#4
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In terms of autographs I believe and agree with Steve that "completists" are a dying breed and in 10 years complete anything signature collections will be a rare thing because of many factors. I think there are more baseball subset collectors and HoF sig collectors as completists or trying to be than any other, maybe followed by Moonwalkers ( not Michael Jackson impersonators) then Presidents and then Declaration of Independence signers. I know of very few people trying to complete football or basketball HoFers complete sets.
Baseball is what I know so I believe that getting MVP, ROY, Cy Young winners are not that hard, but I believe the days of getting complete card sets signed or all decade players or decade debut players or complete team history roster players are getting harder and harder to complete and find not just for new collectors but also for the veteran collector. I believe this stems from the continued rising cost for the vintage or rare/ultra rare signatures and more importantly a skepticism due to the growing number of forgeries entering the market for this type of material. Also TPAs I believe have muddied the water for most collectors because if the TPAs screw up a LOA there is little or no recourse back to them. The fact that the majority of kids today could care less about card, autograph or memorabilia collecting is increasing rapidly so that leaves us old guys to hold the fort down and as we get older, for most collectors because there will always be those collectors with bottomless pockets, we are less likely I feel to spend as freely as we once did because of past economic trends that affected our hobby and our wallets and the looming question of retirement as well as what am I going to do with all this stuff later or if I die before I sell it. So rarity and prices of objects plays a role but I also think life and time, whether it is now or 10 years down the road or longer , does too for the dying " completest" collector in all fields. |
#5
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Quote:
muddying of the market with so many gu/autos has killed it. I remember being a kid in the 90s when game used cards still sold for 10-15 dollars for no names. now it seems every time you open a pack you get one and it sells for 1$ its sad. also the "adults" have killed the market with high end product that someone like me (a college student) or a kid could only dream of getting. also the number of fakes on the market make everyone skeptical and more hesitant to buy anything its a sad day for baseball cards |
#6
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In the process of putting together my 53 set, I've noticed that auction prices are much lower than expected. About three months ago, a Karl Drews slabbed by SGC went up on eBay, and I was expecting it to go for over $500. I won it for $390, and the week before that there were a number of other auctions that also closed well below what I would have expected. I don't know if this is because of a lack of completists or if I just have unrealistic expectations. I've also noticed that rare signatures more often come up for trade than for sale, which makes completing a set that much more difficult.
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Signed 1953 Topps set: 264/274 (96.35 %) |
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