When commons are not commons - the end

[gonefishin]

Just wanted to know everyone's thoughts on commons. With today's market and where it is headed (nobody really knows). When will a "common" not become a common any more. Collectors and investors seem to be buying up the vintage market. Does that mean that common cards that currently are relatively affordable, become less common and scarce? Could this be a new investment strategy? A $5 common today could become a $10 common within a year - not a bad return. Thoughts?

[Rhotchkiss]

I don’t know. Except for a few discrete sets that have always had cache (t206, 1914 CJ, 33 Goudey), I think commons are a bad investment generally, and I think that will remain the case, if not worsen, as set collectors get fewer and farther between.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I don’t know. Except for a few discrete sets that have always had cache (t206, 1914 CJ, 33 Goudey), I think commons are a bad investment generally, and I think that will remain the case, if not worsen, as set collectors get fewer and farther between.

I would agree. Are people less likely to collect sets as the key cards are unobtainable for a collector (not an investor)? If even a beater Goudey Ruth is over $2000, maybe less people will attempt the set.

[JimC]

My only rebuttal to this would be that I think high grade pre war commons can do very well. The level of grade varies based on the set, but if less than 10-15% of a set can be found in a particular grade or higher then the demand for those cards is likely to be there. Just my two cents.

[Vintage Vern]

I think over time rarity will have value, and no name commons will have a place especially ones that are few, and far between. All it will take is change of thinking from a different generation of collectors.

I'll give an analogy between my Dad. myself, and my son. All have a passion in cars. My dad was all about street rods 20s to 40s and try five Chevrolets. While I enjoyed them, and had a few I wouldn't mind having my heart was into 60s- the early 70 muscle cars, and I also love the pro street rage. My son may feel the same as me but he's totally into 90s Camaros and Japanese tuners. Values of some cars will be there, but others die with different generations. As time passes popularity changes to the next in thing, and when things get too expensive people start to get attracted to other things. It's a strange thing for every hobby to watch things you thought would always hold value that don't, and something else takes over. Hell, old cards may be used for noise makers again that once had 6 digit value at one point. While the Verne Clemons of the world may not ever have the value of Ruth it sure is harder to find. I like that challenge. I just hope I can get them before they're the next big thing. At some point the obscure rare common may have more value if the new breed of collectors shift their focus.

[Republicaninmass]

I see more people collecting signed cards and signed sets. Commons are just boring

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by JimC

My only rebuttal to this would be that I think high grade pre war commons can do very well. The level of grade varies based on the set, but if less than 10-15% of a set can be found in a particular grade or higher then the demand for those cards is likely to be there. Just my two cents.

+1, T206 Rucker portrait in a 5 just went for $500, beautiful "common".

[RCMcKenzie]

Without my glasses, this one looks like Babe Ruth after hitting a home run. Bescher was actually really good, as most of the set of 50 images were of contemporary stars. They are unknown commons today. I think of this card as rare, but there are 3 more on eBay. Going for a Bescher back run, instead of buying an e102 Cobb.

[RCMcKenzie]

When I use the term "common", I mean the player. For example, a T205 Fred Olmstead, instead of a T205 Cy Young.
A 1956 Topps Hank Aaron is commonly found, but it's not considered a common.
If you want all your money back in the future, you should buy the best players, in the most popular sets, that you can afford. I should follow my own advice, but I don't.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I don’t know. Except for a few discrete sets that have always had cache (t206, 1914 CJ, 33 Goudey), I think commons are a bad investment generally, and I think that will remain the case, if not worsen, as set collectors get fewer and farther between.

100% agree

[Leon]

Commons from scarce sets will hold their value, imo...

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Leon

Commons from scarce sets will hold their value, imo...

While I tend to agree, it is very hit or miss and certainly not always the case. Take T208's for example -- awesome set and crazy, super rare. Back in like 2010 there were a few people collecting the set and competing against each other for available cards. Those people have given up the chase (for whatever reason) and the value of T208s are today half of what they were in 2010.

For example, an SGC 2.5 Harry Davis sold in 2009 for $6,000. However, a PSA 4 sold in 2019 for $3,000.

A Jimmy Dygert SGC 3 sold in 2009 for $20,400 (a dumb result), yet an SGC 4 sold in 2011 for $4,700 and then again for $4,200 in 2016

A PSA 4 Topsy Hartsel sold in 2009 for $6,600, but then an SGC 3 only sold for $2,500 in 2021

[Leon]

I agree, Ryan. I remember when the first T208 came out in years. There were many bidders and it sold for that crazy number....20k....

But that brought out a set and some others and the prices went down. I think a few people completed their sets and then demand tanked as it was only type collectors, like myself, collecting them. And we only need 1 to fill the slot. That was a rare instance and not unlike other cards that have done that but it's not common.
I have been on both sides of that equation, more than once.

I paid 250 for that Krause, 3 yrs ago, so I am not too worried about it going down.

I picked up this T208 recently and feel it was priced right, not low and not high...

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

While I tend to agree, it is very hit or miss and certainly not always the case. Take T208's for example -- awesome set and crazy, super rare. Back in like 2010 there were a few people collecting the set and competing against each other for available cards. Those people have given up the chase (for whatever reason) and the value of T208s are today half of what they were in 2010.

For example, an SGC 2.5 Harry Davis sold in 2009 for $6,000. However, a PSA 4 sold in 2019 for $3,000.

A Jimmy Dygert SGC 3 sold in 2009 for $20,400 (a dumb result), yet an SGC 4 sold in 2011 for $4,700 and then again for $4,200 in 2016

A PSA 4 Topsy Hartsel sold in 2009 for $6,600, but then an SGC 3 only sold for $2,500 in 2021

[bounce]

Set collecting is still one of the best ways to enjoy the hobby, particularly with vintage.

I like it as it keeps you in the collecting game, but gives you the time to find the star cards that really make sense with your set.

It takes patience, but it's rewarding.

And ask yourself this question - are high eye appeal mid-grade 1950s/1960s "commons" more or less expensive than they were a year ago, 5 years ago, 10 years ago?

Is it a great investment strategy? Not in relation to collecting the stars as others have noted. So you may not get rich, but you also are pretty unlikely to get slaughtered. Slow and steady as you go.

[John1941]

Originally Posted by Leon

Commons from scarce sets will hold their value, imo...

I'm actually a big Harry Krause fan. I love his story, how he was 18-8 with a 1.39 ERA as a rookie, then hurt his arm. He went to Pacific Coast League and ended his career 20 years later with over 300 pro wins.

[skelly423]

Originally Posted by gonefishin

Just wanted to know everyone's thoughts on commons. With today's market and where it is headed (nobody really knows). When will a "common" not become a common any more. Collectors and investors seem to be buying up the vintage market. Does that mean that common cards that currently are relatively affordable, become less common and scarce? Could this be a new investment strategy? A $5 common today could become a $10 common within a year - not a bad return. Thoughts?

As always, there seems to be a split between "collectors" and "investors". I certainly agree that as an investment, commons are a terrible place to spend your money. As a collector, however, I get a satisfaction from complete sets that I would not get if I only bought HOFers and stars. My collection won't be worth as much as it could be if I stuck to the stars, but I'll enjoy it a whole lot more.