will anyone be able to purchase a koufax 7 @ $1750....

[begsu1013]

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[begsu1013]

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[Leon]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

request that no comments be posted or discussion.

just simply "yes" or "no" clicks.

That worked well. (and I voted no)

[ullmandds]

Another post in the wrong section

[Leon]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Another post in the wrong section

Actually it's a thread and is a continuation of another already here so it got let go. Everyone should try to put stuff in the correct sections...thanks

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Another post in the wrong section

But as Leon has himself said, Pete, this kind of post has an overflow effect on pre-war. IMHO, that is because the conditions referred to have the potential of diverting our $$$ from where they might well be better placed to the direction in which the herd is travelling.

Best wishes,

Larry

[begsu1013]

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[ls7plus]

Bob, I can only tell you that Leon, with the depth and wide diversity of his contacts within the hobby, as well as the numerous posts from knowledgeable collectors expressing shock and amazement at the rate at which key cards are increasing in value over the past MONTHS, has led me to retreat from my former rather ignorant stance that the purchasers of these key cards at enormous prices were true collectors, rather than investors. I am a devout student of collectibles, acquiring as much information as I can and analyzing it, which is essentially exactly what I do in my appellate law practice. That study, carried out over the course of the last few decades, leads me inevitably to the conclusion that collectibles do not increase as rapidly in value as key cards from the '50's and '60's have been when the demand is originating from true collectors who know the field, rather than investors, who may have some knowledge, but not nearly enough, and are not in it for the long term.

I made reference to the current market for such cards resembling a Ponzi scheme in another post: when the market is comprised primarily of investors selling to other investors, with higher prices at every stage, the market can be sustained only as long as new investors are coming on the scene. That is the very heart of a speculative boom. When those new investors fail to appear to purchase the cards at greatly inflated values (i.e., substantially more than any true collector would pay), the bottom drops out of the market as it mathematically must--value is proportional to demand divided by supply. If the value is set by investors who have entirely or largely departed the scene, the value of the item will fall to the level of that which a true collector would pay for it. If indeed this is such a speculative boom, as I now have come to accept (Leon and the other long term collectors on the board can be quite persuasive, and I try to always be open to reason), then no other result is even possible.

As to how long such a speculative boom lasts, it has usually been no more than several years duration in coins, and perhaps a bit longer than that in car collecting. The Koufax rookie, if we are indeed in the midst of such an unstable, unsustainable boom, will fall back in value, but how much it will fall or when would be anyone's guess.

May you profit from your purchases,

Larry

PS: my post began before the original poster made his request to limit comments.

[glynparson]

1750 may be a touch low. I figure around 2250-2500 they will settle back down to. I am an optimist about such things though.

[midwaylandscaping]

This thread and one other on net54 answered one question I had. Emphatically.

[packs]

I think buying and selling in the next year might be the only way to make a buck on the card. I don't know this for a fact, but I would think it's baby boomers who are pushing the prices up. If that's true, 10 or 15 years from now many of them will be gone. Their collections will flood the market as heirs look to cash in. Without a steady supply of people who value Koufax as a player, his cards will fall out of favor. Mantle I think is a solid "investment" but I don't think guys like Koufax are if your goal is to buy now and sell later.

[Paul S]

Disagree on the Koufax. As a sextogenerian (yes, I am exactly the same age as Sixto Lezcano), I can tell you that Koufax is firmly ensconced in baseball lore and will not fall out of favor - he's beyond a legend, and not only for those of us who saw him pitch, either in person or on TV. A good friend of mine who is also a friend of Sixto - and both his (my friend's) children, boy and girl, who never saw Koufax live, know precisely who he is and can quote you his bio and stats as easily as they, and the rest of us, can quote Mantle or Wajo. They don't live in a vacuum. Why do those of us now still buy and covet prewar vintage of players we never saw.

But really, comparing the 52T Mantle with the 55T Koufax rookie is unfair: it's like comparing the T206 Wagner to a Young or Wajo. I think one piece of $$$ criteria between now and then is the fact that we take much better care of the postwar than people did in the prewar era: there's so many of them, and nowadays encased in plastic.

Anyway, gotta run. Me and Sixto need to catch the Early Bird Special at the diner.

[packs]

Again I could be totally wrong, but I would think that's the exception and not the norm. If I asked 100 people between 10 and 20 if they bought a pack of baseball cards recently I'd think I'd get 99 no's. I have a hard time believing that a kid who never collected cards growing up would suddenly decide to collect them later in life.