OT: baseball stats are out of control

[Peter_Spaeth]

From ESPN, and no this is not a parody.

Left-handed Royals are 1-for-20 with 12 strikeouts this postseason in at-bats to end in offspeed pitches in the lower third of the zone or below. Eric Hosmer is 0-for-9 with five strikeouts against such pitches this postseason.

Royals righties hit just .199 in at-bats to end in a changeup from a right-handed pitcher, third worst in the AL. Ryan Vogelsong allowed a .178 average in at-bats that ended in a changeup to right-handed hitters; he allowed a .397 average in similar pitches to left-handed hitters.

[HRBAKER]

The nerds are here to stay.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

The nerds are here to stay.

ESPN is just data mining ex post facto. Nerds would know better than to focus on such stupid combinations of factors.

[frankbmd]

Spaeth considers himself a clean up hitter posting 2.40 times per day (PPD).

With this effort he has started 366 threads for an average of .221 threads per day (TPD).

His threads vary from banal to several exhibiting modest insight for a .323 thread relevancy rate (TRR).

Often seemingly obsessed with Kansas City, he tries to divert attention from himself by changing his avatar every 57.2 days (ACR).

His spell checker functions well with a spelling error rate of 0.02% (SER).

His grammar scores above the 95th percentile of the typical high school graduate.

It is not known whether he is a "bi-dextrous poster" or a "hunt and pecker".

Interestingly his email "tongue" reverts to a primitive dialect perhaps from his childhood.

Capitalization and punctuation vanish.

This form of communication is believed to originate from the Missouri River valley, but this is merely speculation on my part.

A background check in KC came back with only the following "Peter who?"

[Peter_Spaeth]

Mr. MD, it appears my TRR is higher than your AHR (attempted humor rate, defined as percentage of posts that are actually funny divided by those where you are attempting to be funny).

[frankbmd]

Even the best of sluggers have to put up a few singles. No one ever knocks it out of the park every time.

[CW]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Spaeth considers himself a clean up hitter posting 2.40 times per day (PPD).

With this effort he has started 366 threads for an average of .221 threads per day (TPD).

His threads vary from banal to several exhibiting modest insight for a .323 thread relevancy rate (TRR).

Often seemingly obsessed with Kansas City, he tries to divert attention from himself by changing his avatar every 57.2 days (ACR).

His spell checker functions well with a spelling error rate of 0.02% (SER).

His grammar scores above the 95th percentile of the typical high school graduate.

It is not known whether he is a "bi-dextrous poster" or a "hunt and pecker".

Interestingly his email "tongue" reverts to a primitive dialect perhaps from his childhood.

Capitalization and punctuation vanish.

This form of communication is believed to originate from the Missouri River valley, but this is merely speculation on my part.

A background check in KC came back with only the following "Peter who?"

Frank... if I ever get the chance to meet you I am going to:

a) buy you the beverage of your choice, and

b) give you an awkward man-hug.

You deserve both.

[steve B]

I also have mixed feelings on the stats being so detailed.

As many have said, on the face of it stats like that are beyond silly.

But..........

When I went to the SABR conference in Boston a few years back someone from the Red Sox gave a talk about the system that generates those stats. At the time there were only a few teams using the same system, and they all exchanged video of all at bats with notes on the details. The system could sort by any combination of details. So stats like the ones quoted were possible.

On of the things that struck me was that they weighted the value of a particular but of information based on age. His example was a particular pitch that Manny Ramirez had a hard time hitting. The number of times he'd seen that pitch while at a count that was more risky for him -like 2-2 or 3-2 wasn't a big sample. Maybe 10-12 at bats. And they extended into the previous season. (No secrets divulged, the "new" data he showed was a year or two old.) The 6 or so at bats the year before were all strike outs, but the ones that were newer were mostly strikeouts but included a hit and home run. What he said was that the older data showed that Manny had a serious weakness, the new data showed that He knew and had been working on it.

They used the data for selecting pitches, and matchups, and for finding places where their own players needed work. The story behind the data was that Manny was told he was vulnerable to a certain pitch and he scoffed until he was shown the at bats. That afternoon he insisted on seeing just that pitch for almost all of BP. And continued asking to see it a lot more.

It's not perfect, but can help spot tendencies and areas where some extra practice might make a player a bit better.

Steve B

[jimivintage]

While I agree that baseball stats seem ridiculous (and my dad and I have argued that point for years), we tend to live in a data driven world these days. Schools are now driven by data and incentives, and so are businesses (the same as ESPN and MLB.)

When I see Terry Francona walk out to the mound to take Corey Kluber out of the game when it seems he has complete control in the 8th inning, there is some sort of data that Francona looked at that made him go get Scott Atchinson out of the pen. I scream for a bit, but then what do you do when you see the stats (Atchinson has a 0.45 ERA lifetime during night games on the road since 2006 against so-and-so on deck?)

I love and hate all this data!

Jimi

[DaClyde]

While I love the level of analytics being done that the managers can use to get an edge, I do hate it that no pitcher is allowed to work themselves out of a jam past the 4th inning. Seeing a guy with a shutout thru 8 getting pulled because he walks a batter or allows a hit is irritating. It is especially irritating when the reliever then proceeds to give up 3 runs and lose the game.

[nebboy]

Yep they are way way aggressive with 2 strike counts but that is their style. Go back and do numbers on hits on first pitch thrown, and the stats would be outstanding.

[Jobu]

I like baseball stats, though I like sabermetric stats (BABIP, FIP, etc) more than the type that you posted here. Part of my problem with the Elias-type matchup stats that you mention is that the tiny sample sizes make most of them meaningless.

For those interested, I think the best site for sabermetric stats and analysis on the internet is fangraphs (www.fangraphs.com) - they have a definition section that tells you what each stat is along with articles explaining them and tons of great articles about player performance. The database also goes really far back - speaking of which, Ty Cobb hit .323 in his age 41 season, how crazy is that?

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

From ESPN, and no this is not a parody.

Left-handed Royals are 1-for-20 with 12 strikeouts this postseason in at-bats to end in offspeed pitches in the lower third of the zone or below. Eric Hosmer is 0-for-9 with five strikeouts against such pitches this postseason.

Royals righties hit just .199 in at-bats to end in a changeup from a right-handed pitcher, third worst in the AL. Ryan Vogelsong allowed a .178 average in at-bats that ended in a changeup to right-handed hitters; he allowed a .397 average in similar pitches to left-handed hitters.

C'mon Peter. EVERYONE knows that. But you could save a ton of money....

[mark evans]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

From ESPN, and no this is not a parody.

Left-handed Royals are 1-for-20 with 12 strikeouts this postseason in at-bats to end in offspeed pitches in the lower third of the zone or below. Eric Hosmer is 0-for-9 with five strikeouts against such pitches this postseason.

Royals righties hit just .199 in at-bats to end in a changeup from a right-handed pitcher, third worst in the AL. Ryan Vogelsong allowed a .178 average in at-bats that ended in a changeup to right-handed hitters; he allowed a .397 average in similar pitches to left-handed hitters.

I agree 100%. I enjoy statistics and was a pretty decent math student back in the day. But, this is an example of overkill.

[insidethewrapper]

If you play daily fantasy league baseball , the WOBA stat is the best. I love drafting a new lineup everyday of the season. It's fun. I love doing the research.