Brown Lenox Prices

[Abravefan11]

The brown Lenox back along with all other tough back T206’s has seen a dramatic price surge in the last year. But unlike other tough back prices that seem to be settling down I believe the brown Lenox prices will continue to rise.

To date just 19 different subjects have been confirmed with this back and only a small number of these have been confirmed with more than one example. The 19 confirmed are just over half of the subjects believed possible so new examples are expected to surface, but the total population will remain low in comparison to other tough T206 backs. The total number of brown Lenox examples known is a fraction of the number of Wagner, Plank or Magie and there are a third more Broad Leaf 460 subjects known.

Many collectors scoff at the brown Lenox as an insignificant color variation; however the brown Lenox are a unique group of cards, printed separately from the also scarce black Lenox. There are fewer examples known of this back than any other T206 back that was distributed in packs.*

In October of 2010 a Lajoie SGC 50 brown Lenox sold for $12,490 and at that time was thought to be a ridiculous price by some. Then in the spring REA auction an Overall PSA 5 sold for $29,375 and in the early hours of this morning a PSA 4 Al Burch sold for $12,334.

Incredible as these prices seem to some, I believe the realized prices especially the Lajoie were great buys. As the legitimacy of the brown Lenox back over the next several years gains more credibility, and the scarcity in relation to all other backs becomes common knowledge, these cards should continue to rise in value.

*The controversial Ty Cobb back is scarcer than brown Lenox however the debate continues as to whether it is a T206 or if the cards were distributed in the product. Brown Old Mill are also believed to be scarcer but were not inserted into packs.

** These are strictly my observations of the current market. I do not own a brown Lenox nor do I have one to sell.

[Leon]

Nice analysis Tim. It seems like once a card breaks a threshold price then the subsequent sales follow suite, ie...the Lajoie we sold in auction. I think, and correct me if I am wrong, that was the first time a Brown Lenox came close to that level.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think, and correct me if I am wrong, that was the first time a Brown Lenox came close to that level.

All it takes is one demented madman to ruin the pricing on a card.

[wonkaticket]

http://www.scpauctions.com/viewuserd...release_july09

http://www.scpauctions.com/LotDetail...-SGC-30-(1%2f1)

[ullmandds]

That makes...a few demented madmen!!!

[oldjudge]

http://www.scpauctions.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=14128

Sorry Jeff! I didn't see that you posted it already

[rhettyeakley]

Originally Posted by Abravefan11

The brown Lenox back along with all other tough back T206’s has seen a dramatic price surge in the last year. But unlike other tough back prices that seem to be settling down I believe the brown Lenox prices will continue to rise...

UNLESS, as a whole people determine that ALL t206 rare backs are overpriced and they all go down in value. I'll 100% admit I understand the draw of the T206 rare backs but at these price levels? I just don't see it continuing indefinitely. T206 rare backs are certainly the "flavor of the month" but there are things priced at a mere fraction of these prices that are rarer and more significant, which baffles me. But, to each their own. I'm not putting anyone down as we all should collect what we like.

[Abravefan11]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

T206 rare backs are certainly the "flavor of the month" but there are things priced at a mere fraction of these prices that are rarer and more significant, which baffles me.

Rhett - Great comments and for the most part I agree with you. I believe that some of the current T206 tough back prices are stronger than the market can support in the long term but I don't see any of them taking a dramatic step back like other issues in the past.

This is in large part due to the previous limited knowledge of the average collector regardng how difficult one particular T206 back is in relation to another. It's only been within the last several years that quality information has been shared by the most knowledgeable collectors that has shed the light on these backs and brought the scarcity levels to the attention of the hobby.

The toughest backs are reaching prices that only a small percentage of the collecting pool can afford. This has caused a trickle down effect as collectors that also want to own a back other than Piedmont or Sweet Caporal who can't afford Lenox, Red Hindu or Uzit and are buying American Beauty, Cycle, Tolstoi, EPDG and Polar Bear. There is actually a larger pool for these mid range tough backs and prices are reflecting this group of collectors desire to own them.

There are many more cards that are rarer and scarcer in the hobby than any of these cards but they all lack the number of collectors that desire to own one. I personally own several cards that have single digit examples known and that I find incredibly fascinating, but the demand for them just isn't there to bring a comparable sales price.

Love them or hate them, T206's have an incredible following and even though they may not be the rarest cards in the hobby, there are some cards or backs within the set that simply can not meet the demands of the number of people that desire to own them.

[teetwoohsix]

Great post above Tim, I agree 100%. Also, great observation in the OP.

It's also interesting trying to figure out why these particular cards were printed with this different color back. Could it have been a card included in maybe a test run on a "new premium blend" of Lenox? Or, just got a different batch of Brown ink?

Either way, it seems certain that many collectors are very aware of the rarity of the Brown Lenox back, and I agree that the Lajoie SGC 50 was a great buy !!!

I also agree that there's now more competition for the mid-level backs (Tolstoi, EPDG,CB,Sov,etc- those are more in my range as well). I do focus mainly on the fronts but I want a well rounded collection with a variety of backs as well.

Thanks for the thread-

Sincerely, Clayton

[tedzan]

Here is my theory on the T206 brown LENOX cards.....just a theory, guys, for you to ponder.....so, don't go "wacko" on me.

GIVEN......

1....All (or most) brown LENOX cards are Factory cut; therefore, not "scrap". I view them as legitimate color printing errors.

2....LENOX cards were printed (concurrent with UZIT cards) during the tail-end press runs of the T206 issue (American Litho-
graphic records, circa..early Spring 1911, confirms this).

3....the Brown ink is the same ink used to print the T206 fronts and their captions.

Then, perhaps during these late T206 press runs of the LENOX backs, the printer inked the printing plates with brown ink instead
of black ink. And, printed a few brown LENOX sheets

If so, I think we can predict with better than 50/50 probability which 350/460 series and 460-only T206 cards may be found with
the brown LENOX back by correlating with the subjects of the confirmed UZIT lists....listed here:

The bold listed subjects on this list of confirmed UZIT's are also the currently confirmed brown LENOX cards

350/460 series

Ames (hands in air)
Berger
Bradley (bat)
Burch (fielding)
Cobb (bat off shoulder)
Conroy (bat)
Crawford (bat)
Jennings (one hand)
Jennings (two hands)
Jordan (bat)
Lajoie (bat)
Lake (St Louis-no ball)
Leach (cap)
Leifield (bat)
Manning (pitching)
McQuillan (bat)
Mullin (bat)
Overall (yellow sky)
Pelty (vertical)
Pfeister (throwing)
F. Smith (Chicago & Boston)
Steinfeldt (bat)
Tinker (bat off)
Wagner (bat on right shoulder)
Doc White (pitching)
Wilhelm (bat)
Willetts
Willis (bat)
Wiltse (pitching)

460-only series

Abbaticcio (blue sleeves)
Ball (Cleveland)
Bell (follow thru)
Bridwell (portrait-cap)
Howie Camnitz (arms up)
Harry Camnitz (arms side)
Chance (bat)
Chase (trophy)
Geyer
Herzog (Boston)
Lake (St Louis-with ball)
Latham
Marquard (follow thru)
Merkle (throwing)
Murray (portrait)
Oldring (bat)
Overall (blue sky)
Schaefer (Washington)
Schlei (portrait)
Schlei (bat)
Schulte (back view)
Seymour (portrait)
Tinker (bat on)
Wiltse (portrait-cap)


I have identified 19 brown LENOX cards. Now, I'm aware of two other brown LENOX cards that have been reported, Willis (throw-
ing) and CYoung (glove). However, these two subjects do not exist with UZIT backs. Therefore, they are either anomalies to my
theory or they have been mis-reported ? ?

I expect that more brown LENOX cards will surface. So, please show or tell us of any additional ones not identified here.

Thanks,

TED Z

[Abravefan11]

Ted –

To answer your question the Vic Willis (Throwing) and Cy Young (Glove Shows) on your check list are bad confirmations. I have spoken to the person that confirmed the Willis and they directed me to the auction listing for the card and it was a Vic Willis (w/ Bat) brown Lenox. Right player, wrong pose. The Cy Young was advertised for sale on the B/S/T as a brown Lenox but turned out to be a black Lenox example. The current owner of this card is a board member who without question knows the difference between the brown and black and was able to clear this up.

I have been able to narrow down the number of possible subjects that were printed with a brown Lenox back to about 40. In doing so I haven’t seen any connection between Uzit and brown Lenox. Most cards that can be found with a brown Lenox will also be found with a Uzit but I don’t believe one to be a determining factor for the other.