Economic Effects...

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Posted By: James Gallo

So seeing as I was away for the past week and barely watched the economic events I was very curious as to if there was any talk on the board. I didn't see anything and I wanted to see what people thought of the following.

I see a few possible impacts, buying changes, doesn't change, or it stops altogether.

Do you think buying will increase or decrease in any of the following price ranges

1) under $1000

2) $1000-$5000

3) $5000-$10,000

4) $10,000- $50,000

5) $50,000+


Will people changed their buying habits or not buy stuff at all. I know I was planning on doing a large submission with SGC but will now probably hold off. I will probably also only buy specific stuff and not do any odd buying or upgrading at this point.

I know when the markets drop often people look at other options and I think cards would be a likely choice.

Any thoughts?


James G

Looking for 1915 Cracker Jacks and 1909-11 American Caramel E90-1.

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Posted By: Marc S.

there has been a drop-off in prices of many <$1,000 items [think T-206 commons in VG - EX/MT range, or E107s in low grade), but seemingly only huge upside in >$50,000 items.

There is a spectrum of impacts, and it impacts some things more than others....there are no great generalizations that can be made across the board. I think that post-war collectors have probably been hit the hardest.

m

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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

James

Certainly all major external events impact collecting whether it be
coins, furniture or baseball cards.

It has been our experience that the middle market is the one most
adversely affected by an economic downturn.

Small items provide pleasure. As long as someone is not giving up
the ability to feed his/her family or pay for the school they will continue
to shop/collect.

On less expensive items there tend to be a great many bidders and the impact
of 10-20% fewer bidders (probably one or two people on any item) will not be
significant

The very rare and extremely expensive items do not appear often. While there
is no hard statistical data, our best guess is that there are less than 500 people
who spend $50,000 a year or more baseball memorabilia. Remember that includes
cards, uniforms, autographs, advertising pieces and hundreds of other items

Clearly a percentage of those people will feel the impact of the current crisis. The prices
for the lesser of the high priced items will be noticeable. Certain collectors will postpone
selling their collection. By the same token those collectors who have to sell to continue
their life style will sell. The new items they bring to market will impact the market
It is uncertain how. If the item is extremely special, there are enough wealthy collectors
that it is likely to do well. If it just another group of common high grade Goudeys or T 206s
prices will fall.

As for the mid range items, we have already seen a drop and would think that a further drop
is coming. Watch for more unsold and withdrawn items.

Lots of good luck in your own collecting


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: barrysloate

I think you will see the most activity with #1 and #5.

The lower end market will be more active as there will be less collector money available for those cards costing several thousand dollars.

The higher end market will continue strong as a specific group of buyers will not be significantly affected.

The middle market will slow down. This encompasses cards not desirable enough for the major collectors, and too expensive for the others.

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Posted By: Bill Stone

On May 16,2005 a Pope John Paul Topps signature card drew a top bid of $72,484.00 which I thought was goofy. That same $72,484.00 would have bought 1,450 shares of AIG. On September 17, 2008 the AIG shares were worth about $2,900. I wonder what the value of the Pope's card is today? The fact is I think the collector who has a true enjoyment in owning baseball cards is going to buy them because they bring pleasure and memories and that anyone who invests in stocks or autographs or cards just for financial gain is going to have moments of disappointment.I could pull out a T210 Jackson and enjoy it even if the value falls in half but not so with my certificate for shares of AIG.

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Posted By: B D

cards that can be replaced with money have dropped in price.
cards that you have to be there when for sale or someone has to die for them to come up in auction have gone up! period! this trend will continue I suspect

BcD

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Posted By: samuel

I'd say there will be no change in range 4, a continued rise in range 5, and declines in ranges 1-3.

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Posted By: Jerry Hrechka

I have seen no decline in the Non-Sports card market.

Prices on scarcer/rarely seen items are increasing exponentially.

I just bought (Within the last week) Nine (9) R21 1937 Wolverine Gum Ripley's Believe It Or Not Cards - in F/G condition, and sold them for over 10X what I paid for the cards.

I bought them & had them sold within 48 hrs.

I agree with Bruce Dorskind, true scarcity will always hold it's value better than condition scarcity.

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Posted By: davidcycleback

I've had no recent trouble selling items in the $100 to $200 range. I sell straight (set prices), but the items in auctions have also realized strong pricing.

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Posted By: boxingcardman

But I have seen a decline in prices on average stuff. Rarities still command strong prices.

Cards will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no cards.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Posted By: Chris

My post war sales have been as strong as ever, and they've ranged from $20-$800.

I haven't had an easier time winning auctions, either. I won so few items yesterday it was absolutely infuriating.

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Posted By: David Poses

I'd say there are other components which need to be taken into consideration besides pure dollars- scarcity and popularity.

The more obscure sets, which serious collectors seem to migrate to, but are on the whole, unpopular, I suspect, will not lose value, as there is always someone who has been waiting forever for a Red Sun or e100 to show up on eBay and will thus pull the trigger with little hesitation.

Another category, which I'll call popular-ish, I think, is more likely to decrease in value. By this I mean a series/set which is relatively easy to come by, that the common collector or newbie tend to venture into after getting sick of the Monster. I'm thinking e90s, T207s, etc. I've picked up a bunch of cards with little competition lately, the prices of which were considerably less than the exact same cards several months ago.

Something I have noticed fairly consistently is a phenomenon where a relatively easy to find card goes for a low price on eBay. The following week, the same card in similar condition is listed, and everybody who did NOT win the card in the previous week flocks to it, hoping to pick it up cheap, but laying down a big snipe just to be safe. This happened with an e90 Hal Chase a few months ago- I think it was a PSA 2 and it sold for $665. The week before, the same card went for around $200. In January, I picked up a PSA2 e90 chase for $125. The next week, a PSA 2 e90 Chase went on eBay and sold for $175.

This is a wacky hobby.