Biggest bucks: Wagner or Ruth?

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Posted By: Rob D.

Do you think there's a clear-cut favorite on which card will sell for more money in the REA auction: the T206 Wagner or the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth rookie? I check the front page of the auction a few times daily, and I don't think these two cards have been more than $10K to $30K apart since Day 1. Last time I checked the Wagner was at $200K and the Ruth at $210K.

I can see good cases being made for either card selling for more than the other.

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Posted By: Phil Garry

I definitely think the Ruth. Better condition and fewer population make for an unbeatable combo.

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Posted By: Anonymous

Have always favored the Wagner.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

No question the Ruth goes higher in my opinion. I'm amazed that the Wagner reached such a high price already. Wasn't more than a year that a Wagner 1 was going for 150K.

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Posted By: Matt

Can we infer from the minimum bids that REA thought the Wagner?

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Posted By: Rob D.

That's an interesting point, Matt, because I found it odd that the minimum on the Wagner was $50K, and the estimate $100K-plus. The minimum on the Ruth was $10K, yet the estimate $200K-plus.

Of course, I think most people take REA's estimates with a grain of salt.

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Posted By: leon

I think the Ruth will go higher. As for this Wagner in a 1 holder it is a very, very nice "1"...and could probably be a 2, imho. There is way too much varience in condition and eye appeal of "1"s......regards

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Posted By: Dave F

Well...not sure how they came up with the starting bid amounts. But, I would imagine REA will come out way ahead themselves on the Wagner over the Ruth. Since the guy that had the lot of T206's sent them to Beckett instead of SGC or even PSA, I can't fathom he had enough since to work the same consignment fee that the seller with the Ruth had. I bet they come off 3x higher on what they get off the Wagner.

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Posted By: Joann

Ruth.

One reason to have a lower starting bid is to allow as many people as possible to qualify for the extended round before the bid gets too high. Maybe they thought that the Ruth would need more action, or maybe even get more action and interest so they allowed for it by creating more space between the minimum and where they thought it would end up.

I think the image on the Wagner, as stated in the auction, is really outstanding. The focus and depth is so great.

J

(Rob - check your email.)

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Posted By: CoreyRS.hanus

I don't think the reserves with either of those cards, both being being but a fraction of the card's market value, will have any bearing in the end. The market will determine their value and I don't think even having those cards with no reserve will in the end make any difference.

As to where they end up, my prediction is the Ruth will go at least $100K higher than the Wagner.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

the respective consignors might have had an influence on the minimum bids...

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Posted By: JimB

Prices on the Ruth are tougher since there have been so few examples sold - albeit one in each of the last couple of REA auctions. But I think the market possibilities are wide open.

This is only the second Wagner to be offered after the Gretzky Wagner more than doubled in price. The last one, at the National auction last summer, set a record. This one has already beaten the record set last summer for a Wagner graded 1. If to some degree the value of the others are tied to that Gretzky, it makes sense that low grade examples have increased at relatively similar rates.

Who knows which of these will be more in the end. It really just comes down to the bidders, their means, and their levels of desire. On cards like these, they are both so over-the-top that it almost does not make sense to talk about relative merits of the cards. The Wagner is the premier card in the hobby and BN Ruth is only a half step down and in a group of maybe a half dozen elite cards at that next tier.
JimB

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Posted By: dan mckee

Biggest money should be Wagner. The Ruth is a much tougher card as only about 10 are known and only 3 of those are Red. The Wagner count should be around 70 known. I have never owned a Wagner but dad has owned 2 Ruths. Don't ask.

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Posted By: Aaron Seefeldt

Hey Dan, say hello to your old man for me... hope all is well.

-Aaron Seefeldt

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Posted By: Jason L

The Ruth should go for more because the Wagner isn't worth the money.

And Dan, how can we possibly not ask after a comment like that!
That's like confiding in the Board that I own 2 Bentleys, but only one Maybach, because it doesn't fit into the last bay of my 18-car garage full of Ferrari GTOs.


nobody get excited...empty pockets, vivid imagination.

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Posted By: Cobby33

Reserves/minimum bids are sometimes set based upon an advance to the consignor, if any.

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Posted By: JimB

Wagner just passed the Ruth. It is at $258.5k with the BP!
JimB

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Posted By: Harry Wallace (HW)

I would take the Wagner any day. There are many more cards that are rarer than the Wagner, but nothing transcends the hobby more than that card. There will always be more demand for that card than any other. It is an extremely beautiful card from the most collected pre-war set.

The Ruth is a great card, but it is not that great looking and not too many collect Baltimore News cards, especially the minor league cards. Also, it seems as though ther are many more Ruth cards from that set than any of the other players. That never made sense to me. Where are all of the commons?

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Posted By: Joseph

Here's a picture of the two Wagners currently on the block:



The card on the left is currently at 179k with the juice at Heritage...on the right is the REA offering.
Now I don't much about grading--Leon is right: the REA card is way under-graded, particularly when you compare it to the SGC Heritage--but I do know what I see. And the card on the right should sell for at least two times the one on the left.

This is all about supply and demand. The Wagner is an icon, desired by many. The Ruth card, of course, is rare indeed, but has a much smaller, cultured market. The chance to acquire a Wagner that seems like its in great shape compared to a truly poor example that's selling for $179k or more will not be passed up by some person who has wanted this card for years. For this reason, I believe the REA Wagner will get the bigger bucks.

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Posted By: quan

would it be crazy for 1 bidder to try and win both cards (one for your 1st wife and the 2nd for your trophy wife)? the card transcends the hobby and part of american folklore, so it'll never depreciate. the only problem is he might face some competition thus driving the prices up for both.

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Posted By: Rob

why is it that from the "Beckett T206" find that the Wagner is in such worse shape than all the others from the find? Just doesn't seem to be consistent condition-wise w/the rest of the lot.

I'd rather have the Wagner than the Ruth, but would happily take either I think they'll sell w/in 10% difference of each other.

Rob

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

I can't imagine spending over 200K for that Heritage Wagner. It's so damaged...why spend all that money when another 30K or so will get you a 'good' 1? If you have that much money that you can spend 200K on a card surely you have 250, right? I feel the same way about the Planks. It's not like these cards can't be had -- they both come up for auction multiple times a year.