SMR arrived - laugh for the month

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Posted By: steve

Does this hobby have a legit monthly price published in hard copy format?

SMR is absolutly completely worthless - my year and a half old infant could price cards more in line with real life values.

As a test, I posted B/S/T - wanted, will pay 100% Full SMR for PSA 6 & 7 T206 Cobb, Matty, W.Johnson, Young.

Come on folks - FULL 100% SMR - how could you not sell to me when getting such a great deal with my offer to buy, buy, buy at FULL book!

steve

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Steve,

You are correct. The SMR prices suffer from a severe lack of attention. Obviously VCP is the best but in my opinion the Beckett Graded Card Quarterly represents a solid effort.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

I think many collectors use SMR as a guide, even if they have to apply some sort of multiplier to arrive at a realistic price expectation. It does give an idea of the relative value of different cards within a particular set. I track T206 HOFers in mid-grades (most with very plentiful graded populations) and they have been going lately for somewhere between SMR and double SMR on eBay, depending on the quality of the card within the grade (centering, print and image quality, etc.). And of course prices do vary from one auction to the next, depending on who happens to want the card and shows up to bid on it.

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Posted By: nbrazil

SMR is practically useless for pre war cards.

For post war, specifically in the 5-7 range, the SMR price is the maximum to pay for a card. A yaz rookie in PSA 7 condition is $180 according to SMR. Most collectors would then bid, say, $160 on the card (of course, this is on average. cards that have higher aesthetic appeal and a likelihood of being bumped up in grading may go for SMR or above). This is less true for more popular, high demand cards (hank aaron, mantle, mays rookies and scarcer more condition sensitive issues (wilson franks)).

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Nbrazil,

You left out low pop commons out of the equation for post-war. One can pay in the thousands for a $50 common psa 8.

Jim

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Posted By: Jimi

Eric,

While I agree with you on SMR, I'd rather use a guide/website in which I do not have to use multipliers for. I understand that a great deal of effort needs to be put into making SMR function correctly, but there are other sources that are taking over.

Jimi

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

I subscribe to VintageCardPrices.com and have found it to be very helpful in assessing market values; it will become more so in the future as their data base of historical prices grows. SMR meanwhile can't react to every minor fluctuation in the market; they could for example raise the values on T206's because of recent sales activity, only to find them come back down to earth again.

SMR is good for assessing value changes over the long term, and as I said before, as a baseline for the relative values of cards within a set. On some scarce high demand items (either truly scarce or condition scarce) buyers completely throw out the book when bidding, but otherwise I think most do use it as a reference point. It is to a large degree self-fulfilling prophecy and PSA wields considerable power to influence the market with that thing.

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Posted By: JimB

I think Eric makes the key point here: that SMR can be good for determining the relative value of cards in a set. It is not flawless on that either, but can be a good guide for how much Cobb is worth relative to Bresnahan in a given set, etc.
JimB

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Posted By: Josh Adams

I read it for the articles.

Go Go White Sox
2005 World Series Champions!

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Posted By: steve

The irritating this is that they CAN do something about the poor pricing, but for whatever reason they WILL NOT.

PSA/SMR could easily hire some one single dude to gather correct price data and report per real transaction values. Just one more guy on the payroll devoted to this problem could solve all.

We already have a monthly price guide - SMR - just lets make it real - Please, Please all you PSA folks lurking out there.

One could argue that they are artificially keeping the market lower than it should be.

steve

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Posted By: MVSNYC

steve-

i knew you were up to something when you posted that in the BST area, seemed fishy and they are not the typical cards you collect (in that high-grade anyway)...

i spoke with Joe Orlando about 2 years ago, in an effort to try to get them to raise prices in the SMR (specifically T206, in my case)...

Joe said they were going to SLOWLY raise some of the prices. he said if they did it too fast or sudden, it would "jolt" the market...

i'm still waiting.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Actually PSA is in a bind when it comes to SMR. Let's say they have a card listed for $250 that typically sells for around $1000. Even if they wanted to correct it, they can't list it for $250 one month and then quadruple it the next. It would create the wrong impression, even if they explain that the entire system was adjusted. Collectors would think the market exploded overnight. The best SMR could do is gradually increase prices until the guide is more accurate. But in a volatile market even that is a challenge.

Edited to add Michael, you and I said the same thing at the same time.

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Posted By: James Gallo

Here is the problem with SMR.

Dealers love to throw it at you. Well SMR is this so I can only pay this. I JUST had that happen to me, when I know for a fact all of the stuff I was trying to sell goes for above SMR...

In addition the modern prices are even sadly off and it takes over a year to get new cards listed.

Lastly, although you get a general price trend and it would be hard to track trends there are certain cards that are stupidly low.

I will gladly pay $3500 for a M101-4/5 Joe Jackson in PSA 4, that is 1100 over SMR.

There are certain players and rare cards that the prices are so far off is pathetic. All the Black Sox, several tougher Cracker Jacks and E-90. It would not be hard to adjust a small section of the guide and is would also not be hard to track the top end cards and get a good idea of true value based on transactions.

As stated it just seems that PSA doesn't care so why should I care to use their products when they don't seem to care about the end user.

James G

Looking for 1915 Cracker Jacks and 1909-11 American Caramel E90-1.

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Posted By: nbrazil

anyone know how exactly PSA got their SMR prices in the first place...and how they adjust prices monthly? I would hope these prices do not come out of a vacuum, but are based on some reliable, INDEPENDENT research.

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Posted By: Dan Paradis

It can't be that difficult to update the pricing... Start with Old Judge - American Caramel and do a page a week.

Also, why not change some of the early vintage to show pricing from "Auth" - PSA 5 or 6 instead of PSA 4 - PSA8 (except for Fan Craze and similar cards).

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Posted By: Bobby Binder

SMR is the reason why I created VCP because of the poor price information out in the market. It is our goal to become the new price point standard. What needs to be done to convince people there is a better source?

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Posted By: Kevin Saucier

Mine went from the mailman to the trashman.

One thing I could never understand. They list what some cards sold for but it's not even closse to the value they give it.

Made up example:

A PSA 9 Cobb sold for $85,000 in 2005. PSA 9 Cobb value listed, $24,000. huh????

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Posted By: Matt

Bobby - you've got to come up with a way to make your data mobile (for those of us who don't have i-phones).
Unless I visit Peter Chao's brothel and card shop, I can't go into a card store or card show and use the data.
Maybe add a way to 'quick print' the last 100 prices of a card in any condition to paper? That way, if I know I'm going somewhere looking for a card, but I don't know exactly what condition I will find, I can easily have the data to reference.

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Posted By: Mark L

They may say that they are moving slowly to correct the values but the prices look stationary to me. I think they raised the value of M116's last year, as did the Standard Catalog, but on the whole they seem oblivious to the current market. Could it be that they like to keep prices low because they use the SMR to establish the value of the cards that they grade? You'd think they'd want the values to be high since it allows them to charge higher fees. Or do they want values to be low because they won't have to pay out very much when they damage a card or make an error and must offer a refund? You might say that there simply aren't very many people who give a rat's patootie about vintage cards and so they don't serve our market. But a lot of money is spent on those old cards, so I don't understand the neglect.

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Posted By: Darren

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, it's just plain irresponsible to publish an inaccurate price guide.

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Posted By: barrysloate

I don't think they really care if the prices are accurate. They need a vehicle to accept advertising, so a few lightweight articles, a slapdash price list, and that's their reason for publishing monthly.

I think it's about the advertising revenue, not the price guide.

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Posted By: Darren

An inaccurate price guide can help a dishonest dealer dupe an unsuspecting seller. "It's in print, therefore it must be legitimate."

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Posted By: Fred C

Is the SMR a "feel good" book that's supposed to make you feel good about the hobby because it tells you that your collection of cardboard is worth "a lot of money"? How doe the SMR gauge their valuations? It's a hype rag more than anything.

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Posted By: JimB

Kevin said,

"One thing I could never understand. They list what some cards sold for but it's not even closse to the value they give it."


I have wondered the same thing. Obviously one odd sale does not necessarily change the value of a card (though it does sometimes), on rare items, two or three sales is indicative of a new valuation in the market.
JimB

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

I too would very much like to know how PSA derives their SMR figures. It must be based to some degree on actual sales data, but I would like to know what algorithms they apply in deciding when to make an adjustment.

In the current SMR issue, the value of 1954 Bowman commons in NM-MT 8 has been adjusted downward from $55 to $45. That's the only change for that entire set. How the heck did they arrive at that?

Also, the value of 1933 Goudey #149 Babe Ruth in Mint 9 has been adjusted upward from $85,000 to $90,000. As far as I know, and according to the current PSA population report, this card does not exist in PSA 9. So what abstract concept did they apply, in deciding to increase the value of a card which does not in fact exist? Did they do a survey of card collectors and ask them what they would pay for it if it did?

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Posted By: Red

Why is it that the SMR gets slammed for inaccurate prices when the Beckett and SCD yearly guides which have been around for 2-3 times longer are actually much worse.

In another thread Mr. Gallo asked what people thought an M101 type Buck Weaver was worth. Somebody posted the prices from the SCD as NM $225, Ex $110, VG $65. How accurate are those prices?

Printed guides and on-line guides aren't selling cards and can't force anybody to buy and sell at the listed prices. If pricing was an exact science then all the prices in the VCP for the same card in the same grade would be the same. The prices are all over the place so that just goes to show there are many factors that go into the price of each example of the card. VCP can only tell you what different exampes of the card have sold for in the past. It can't tell you what the next one will sell for, which is what it seems some people are looking for in a guide. It's just not possible.

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Posted By: Dave Williams

Forget the pricing, the last SMR had no articles worth reading, a continuing trend.

The articles might as well have been advertising for REA.

It's rivaling SCD for irrelevance.

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Posted By: Ricky Y

SMR is a very poor measuring stick for buying and selling.

I usually keep tabs on a group of cards that I want and track the ebay sales and also auction lists/results.

It would be great if bb cards had something like the coin dealers who have a wholesale grey and blue sheet that are issued and updated weekly and gives you a decent guideline for graded coins.

Ricky Y

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

REA got some free promotion for that 1914 Cracker Jack set that they will be auctioning, but boy that is a beautiful looking bunch of cards. And it's not as if potential buyers of that set wouldn't have found the auction anyhow. One thing they say in the article is that they have no idea what that set is worth -- it will be interesting to see what it goes for.

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Posted By: Cobby33

SMR is pretty worthless.
Like Jim C., I highly recommend Beckett's Vintage/Graded card guide.

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Posted By: Doug

I would have to agree. The Beckett vintage/graded guide is a lot better, but it's not perfect either. At least it usually has better articles. I would unsubscribe from the SMR if PSA gave you the option, I don't even read it.

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Posted By: Jason L

without opening.

It's a terrible waste of paper.

Regarding the source of thr price guide's values, I believe it is an algorithm that incorporates their top dealer's buying prices, average ambient temperature of their hometown's atmosphere during the winter months, average price for a staffer's lunch, and the square root of the average daily volume of mousse in Joe Orlando's hair.

That's what I heard, anyway

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Posted By: Cat

OK, the price guide is worthless, but I like the advertisements. Because of the REA advertisement, I now know that they will have a Kalamazoo Bats John Ward in their upcoming auction.

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Posted By: Brian

I know what "Quixotic" means because of SMR. That's gotta count for something.

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Posted By: barrysloate

REA will also have a Burke Ale poster in their auction. That is a really amazing advertising poster, featuring Cap Anson and Buck Ewing.