% of Low Grade vs. High Grade Trading Cards

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Posted By: Jerry Hrechka

My thought is that lower grade cards of any cardboard trading card should vastly exceed higher grade cards, just due to neglect, wear and tear, & aging.
So what % of trading cards could be expected to survive in high grade under objective probability analysis? - Assuming total originality ( No trimming, doctoring etc.)
Don't even know if this kind of analysis is possible.
But my low grade beaters are very valuable to me. Love to hold them, look at them & trust me the sight of them never makes me want to vomit.

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Posted By: G. Maines

One tenth of one percent (using proprietary statistical analysis technique).

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Posted By: Jerry Hrechka

So that means for every PSA7 there should be 999 cards graded lower? - My math is kinda fuzzy here.

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Posted By: peter chao

It's probably useless to try and calculate a percentage. A better approach would be to use a two-dimensional graph with an x and y axis. On the x axis you put the year and on the y axis you put the estimated percentage in high grade. As you go further back in time the percentage in high grade should be dropping.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Jason L

Whoa!

So, you are suggesting that we plot a chart of percentages (thereby suggesting that we have a series of data), without the convenience of having any of the data?

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Posted By: peter chao

Jason,

But we do have some evidence of the individual years, at this point in time the PSA registry people need to pick up the ball. By looking at each year and set you can make an approximation as to the percentage that would be in near mint.

Peter C.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

if we use "z", we can make a three-dimensional graph...

i think the question is trying to compare high-grade vs. low grade within particular sets...not today vs. 80 years ago...so graphing time is not necessary.

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Posted By: peter chao

If you leave out time, then 2 dimensions is enough. Just create a bar graph, with the set on one axis and the percentage in near mint on the other axis.

Peter C.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

peter- it was a joke...

lighten-up Francis.

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Posted By: marty quinn

i don't think jerry is asking for a graded card percentage, he might, but i think he refers to raw cards, you cannot use time like mark says, with no pop for raw cards this ? is hard or impossible to answer, 999-1, hmmm, then why the big fuss over the prices for high graded cards if indeed they are that rare.

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Posted By: peter chao

Okay, if he's referring only to raw cards, then we have very little data. Our best approximation would be to use the PSA and SGC registries.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Leon:

Your pet is distracting the adults again.

Gil

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Posted By: peter chao

Gil,

I've never been a "teacher's pet," I've spent a lot of time going to the principal's office though. LOL.

Peter C.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

To get back to the original poster, I have never seen a card that actually made me vomit, although I have seen some with enough ugly stains, creases, or pieces missing to cause me to gag briefly.

Seriously, Scot Reader has done some rough estimates of the total number of T206's that were originally produced, and the number that have likely survived to the present day. (I don't have access to his study where I am right now, away from home.) His estimate could be used as a denominator to estimate the percent that have survived in high grade (assuming that most of the higher grade ones have been holdered by now).

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Peter, you know darn well that I was not referring to a teacher's pet.
My reference was those little attention seeking yapping, tail wagging annoyances who insist on jumping up on your legs, just when you are putting your best moves on the redhead .... to A chorus of "ain't he cute" ... when you just want to wring his neck.

Stifle yourself Edith. Stifle.

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Gag. I should have known better than to try a serious post on this subject.

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Posted By: G. Maines

Yes, Jerry H.
I considered a nominal equivalent to PSA7 in my estimate. Your question was not directed at the extremes, so that seemed reasonable.

But seriously, it does not matter what data analysis technique you use when there is such limited data. Perhaps Eric's suggestion of using the t206s is a good alternate approach. The trick is always going to be to accurately estimate the number of cards which survived in an "under a PSA7 equivalent" condition.

It would be very interesting to compare numbers for Goudey, t206 and Old Judge.

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Posted By: Jerry Hrechka

My question applied to all cards of a given type - the total of both raw and graded. I was just curious if any such study has ever been done. I guess I should research the study on T206's that Eric mentioned.

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Posted By: G. Maines

Jerry,
My estimate was for application to all pre-war baseball cards, independent of other type subdivision. S. Reader's study may provide good insight into the t-206 set. Also do not miss other interesting threads which skirt this subject, such as:

http://www.network54.com/Forum/153652/message/1193281129/How+many+T206+sets-

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Posted By: peter chao

Jerry,

Of course it's important to review Scot Reader's estimates on the no. of T-206 cards that have survived, then look at the PSA registry for slabbed T-206s.

Probably only the more expensive or valuable T-206s have been slabbed, so you would expect more low grade cards to be unslabbed. From the registry information you could make an educated guess at the raw card distribution.

Peter C.

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Posted By: G. Maines

Peter: What formula do you recommend to do this?
" From the registry information you could make an educated guess at the raw card distribution".

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Posted By: peter chao

Gil,

Well, there are 2 ways you could do this. First, you could look for a vintage set with a well-known population and distribution and then look at the percentage that are actually slabbed and their condition. This is probably not feasible because there are few if any vintage sets with a well-known population.

Secondly, you can look for at modern cards with a well-known population and distribution and then look at the percentage that are actually slabbed and their condition. This is more feasible but what's true for modern cards might be very different for the T-206.

Peter C.

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Posted By: MVSNYC

this is not going to read so easily, but this is from a spread sheet my friend made a few years ago for me for the T206 PSA POP. at the time they had graded 47,622 (now i think it is 80,000+...the percentages he provided show how each grade ranks...(i.e. a PSA 8 (and above) represented only 3.97% of the total T206 that PSA graded...

hope this makes some sort of sense, maybe someone else could do a better job...

1-2, 3-4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 TOTAL


6722, 19335, 5847, 3116, 3116, 1703, 175, 11 47622

84.45%, 70.33%, 29.58%, 17.11%, 10.51%, 3.97%, 0.39%, 0.02%

Numbers above indicate the percentage of each card grade PLUS the ones above it in rank.
Edited to add, this is a pretty simple math problem, and i think the easiest way to answer this question, is to analyze the PSA pops (so much easier to read than SGC)...that will give a good indication of "% of Low Grade vs. High Grade Trading Cards"...

***you can see how once you hit NM-MT, then MINT, then GEM MINT...the numbers go down exponentially...they basically fall off the map, (i.e. a PSA 9 or 10 = SUPER rare)

trying to do it from raw cards is an "exercise in futility"...as my boss would say...

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Posted By: G. Maines

This could be a good starting point. Would you consider adjusting the percentages to accomodate the liklihood that there is more motivation to grade a psa8 than a psa2, and therefore a greater percentage of the existing population of high grade cards have been submitted?

Of course, I have no idea regarding these factors, but as an initial guess, I will offer: for cards graded at 6 or above 50% of the population is slabbed now. PSA4-6 = 25%, below PSA4 = 10%.

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Posted By: peter chao

Gil,

Your percentages can be empirically verified when you look at modern cards because for some sets the populations are well-known. However, as you know for some of the modern cards almost half the cards are in PSA 7 or better, so their distribution would be quite different than for T-206.

Peter C.