home runs, statistics and steroids

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

someone on the SABR-l list posted this article and it should be read by everyone that thinks steroids are the root of all evil in baseball. It's a bit lengthy, but well worth the read.

http://www.arthurdevany.com/webstuff/images/HomeRunHitting.pdf

Jay

Last year there was a fistfight between fans and players at a professional basketball game. Not to be outdone, the National Hockey League has announced that not only will several fans be beaten every period, but one lucky fan each game will be run over by the Zamboni.

[Archive]

Posted By: barry arnold

Thanks for directing us to the article,Jay.
I'm most pleased to see a fellow professor(the author) spend his time on what
really matters----baseball.

As far as accuracy of the statistical methodology to support his
thesis, I must defer to the mathematicians on this board.
Still, a good read with so much of the recent, almost autohypnotic, focus being on
steroid abuse.

Barry

[Archive]

Posted By: John J. Grillo

As a lowly assistant-professor, I read the article and thought some points thought-provoking. The author's analysis on steriods is a bunch of crap imo

The author is missing the argument and limits his argument to the sport of baseball. The author should have focused his research a little more scientifically about the relationship between steriod use and athletic performance. The Olympics ban it for a darn good reason.

I do not think there is a single educated person who thinks steriod use is going to make you hit more home runs. However, what steriods will do is increase your strength, and for those (i.e. athletes) who strength-train, the result is going to be increased muscle mass. In addition, the use of steriods reduces the amount of muscle-recovery time after exercise...(i.e. soreness, nagging injuries). As an athlete becomes tired during a 162 game season, steriod use will enable the athlete to recover quickly, and also extend the career of an athlete beyond their peek years.

What the author should have mentioned is how many home runs did Ruth, Mantle, Killebrew, Mays, et al, hit in their late 30's and 40's. Compare that to the Bonds' McGwire's of the world still bashing a zillion home runs when they should've been on the downside of their career.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

The author looked at steroid use in baseball because that is the topic of moment. Not the Olympics, not football or any other sport. Confining it baseball keeps it focused on the topic at hand, does steroids increase HR production.

"What the author should have mentioned is how many home runs did Ruth, Mantle, Killebrew, Mays, et al, hit in their late 30's and 40's."

I guess by this argument Aaron was on steroids too. he did most of his HR hitting in his later years.

Jay

Last year there was a fistfight between fans and players at a professional basketball game. Not to be outdone, the National Hockey League has announced that not only will several fans be beaten every period, but one lucky fan each game will be run over by the Zamboni.

[Archive]

Posted By: identify7

It seems to me that almost everyone in this country is educated. I wonder at what level of education the snobbery of "I am trained, maybe stoopid, but trained" kicks in.

"I do not think there is a single educated person who thinks steriod ..."

[Archive]

Posted By: daviddbreadman

I experimented with steriods in my college years (typical reasons, non sports related over a 3-6 month period). I was also a baseball player (for fun, I was pretty good but never major league worthy). There is absolutely no truth to the conclusions of that article. When I was taking steriods I gained about 30 pounds 180 to 210 and had a pretty imposing physique but at no time were my muscles bulging so much to stand in the way of me generating the increased bat speed to clobber the ball like I never had. I felt like a million bucks and everything in my life enjoyed the same uplift as my muscles did at the time. There is no doubt in my mind that these superstar cheats in todays game would have ended there careers the same as the lackluster stars going by the names of Jim Rice and Fred Lynn. (yes I'm a Boston fan) Maybe that author should have stuck a few needles in his ass like I did before he wrote that crap.

[Archive]

Posted By: John J. Grillo

edited to add: my phrase..."I do not think there is a single educated person..." could've been phrased better; however, with that said..

"educated" doesn't imply highest education level attained...it implies doing a little reading and research on the subject. You do not have to be a college grad to read or research...no level of snobbery intended or implied.

with that said, Jay, yes, Aaron had some great years in his late 30's; however my argument is that he went downhill quickly. When he reached 40 years of age, his stats were awful.

There will be exceptions to the rule. Barry Bonds has talent in perfecting the art of swinging a bat. It's the steriod use, that allows him to maintain a physical and/or emotional intensity that non-steriod users cannot possible match...it's cheating and like I said before, it is banned for a reason.

[Archive]

Posted By: Anson

Hmmm...I consider myself mildy educated and I would have thought that more muscle physique and increased strength might make more fly outs become home runs? I guess I'm wrong. Maybe McGwire and Bonds would have hit all those home runs earlier in their careers..............they didn't.

I call BS on the fact that steroids do not allow power hitters to hit home runs. I am well aware of the impact of steroids, such as Winstrol, since I have them at work.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

Mac did hit a ton of HRs right out the gate. We don't know if he was already doing steroids or not. The thing people seem to forget is that when you make it to the majors, you do not have your hitting skills perfected yet. This comes with time. I'm sure if you look at every player, thier skills increase after entering the league whether they took steroids or not.

I'm not saying that they don't help, but it's not the sole reason for the increase. Training is better and because HR hitters make the big bucks, people swing for the fences more. As Boggs, Gwynn and anyone else that knows anything about hitting, swinging to get a hit and swinging to get a HR are two different things. More than a few players ahve said they don't like participating in the AS game HR Derby because they claim it messes with their swing because they need swing different for that contest.

Jay

Last year there was a fistfight between fans and players at a professional basketball game. Not to be outdone, the National Hockey League has announced that not only will several fans be beaten every period, but one lucky fan each game will be run over by the Zamboni.

[Archive]

Posted By: identify7

Jay: Certainly not every player has his hitting skills perfected upon his entry to MLB, and I sure would like to see Pujols get out of his funk and start some serious hitting. Harry Heilmann is a prime example of a player who took forever to get started, Bonds too. But Keeler for example, and certainly Boggs were strong out of the gate, but faded (well for them, faded).

[Archive]

Posted By: Anson

Mcgwire and Bonds were guite capable of hitting home runs before steroids, no arguement there. However, eclipsing 70 is something that NOBODY has every done before. In fact, Maris, Ruth, and Mantle didn't come close. Until the alleged steroid cases, how many times did McGwire and Bonds eclispe 50 home runs?

Barry Bonds was a Hall of Fame talent before the roids. But, he blew it and now will live with the dark cloud forever. Mcgwire was a one-dimensional guy who really never had a true shot at the Hall until the roids. Hey, at least Dave Kingman hit his home runs fairly.

It's not fair to compare Heilmann to Bonds or Mcgwire in regards to being a late bloomer. Yes, it's true that steroids don't help you time a pitch or make contact with the ball. But, as previously mentioned, steroids increase strength and facilitate the recovery and healing process. Today's late bloomers wouldn't be blooming if it wern't for the steroids. At least not what we're seeing. To put it in perspective, Bonds is the only athlete in the history of ANY sport to elevate his play to the top of the heap AFTER reaching his late 30's. No other athlete can come close.....period. Do you think it was his ability to finally find his swing late in his career? C'mon

[Archive]

Posted By: David Smith

As I have said before, Barry always had the ability to hit the baseball but with steroids, those warning track fly balls turn into Home Runs. Then the opposing managers and pitchers get scared and Intentionally Walk him which helps to increase his Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, OPS and MVP Awards.

This increases his pay and fan attendance but cheapens baseball and the statistics, at least in my opinion.

David

[Archive]

Posted By: identify7

I don't know, but I don't think that Bonds' success has much to do with steroids. But even if it did, that would not invalidate his performance in my eyes.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

I guess the only way to get all the purists to stop whining and perserve the supposeded sanctity of baseball's records, all training and medical treatment should be reverted to 1950s or early so that everyone is playing on a level playing field. Training, medicine and other things that indirectly affect the game will always improve creating bigger, better, stronger players. If it isn't steroids, it's will be something else. Players will always will, and always have, looked for an edge and that will never stop.

It's nice to myopicly look back to years gone by, but the game is has never been "pure" and has always been in state of constant flux. Why do you think it is so hard compare players from different eras? It's also the reason you shouldn't hold players of the 1960s to the standards of the 1930s when considering them for the HOF. For that matter, 1930s was far from "pure" and stuck in the craw of old timers who whistfully dreamt of Deadball era when they player "real" baseball.

It's all relative. Accept the game for what it is today and realize that the game never be what it was in 70s, 30s, 10s or the 19c. The game can never go back, only forward.

Jay

Last year there was a fistfight between fans and players at a professional basketball game. Not to be outdone, the National Hockey League has announced that not only will several fans be beaten every period, but one lucky fan each game will be run over by the Zamboni.

[Archive]

Posted By: davidcycleback

I look at steroids by asking the following two questions:

1) If steroids don't help a baseball player become better, why do the baseball players take steroids?

2) If the baseball players taking steroids feel there is nothing wrong with taking steroids, why do they deny taking them?

[Archive]

Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

Mantle started slow 1951; but after all he was only 19.
And, Stengel brought him up from Joplin of old Western
league (definitely not much Minor Lge groming) a little
too soon. And, at 5:11 and 170 lbs, he was no "King Kong".
But, by 1952 he was in full swing.

But, let us extrapolate what his numbers could have been
if he used steroids:

700 Ft....Home Runs (instead of 565 Ft)

70+ ......Single season HRs (multi years)

700+ .....Career total HRs (instead of 537)

Incidently, I fully agree with John G. and Anson that this
author's analysis is BS.

[Archive]

Posted By: identify7

I regret disagreeing with such a knowledgable group of baseball historians. However, I ask you the following: if you inspect the size of the members of the 500HR club, can you correlate HR production with body mass?

I can not.

[Archive]

Posted By: identify7

Dr. Rudd: Apparently a valid question, but it assumes that baseball players employ logic in their choices.

Opposing views may cite some ballplayers polish their bats, while others ruff them up; some apply pine tar - or formerly did, while others rub them with chicken bones - or are reported to do so. And what is the story with batting gloves? Certainly you do not feel further examples of sports trends which dictate behavior independent of results, need to be expounded upon.

But it does make sense that if you are big and strong, you can hit more home runs than someone who is smaller (Im not sure that I got that quote of Kluszweski talking to Aaron right).

[Archive]

Posted By: davidcycleback

For every single MLB player who has tested positive for steroids, the player has denied taking it, denied intenionally taking it or appologized/been embarassed for taking it (In a rare feat, Palmerio both denied intentionally taking steroids and appologized). I have never heard a single one of these players say that he intententionally took steroids and it was an okay thing to do.

Even before steroids were illegal in MLB, players like Bonds and Palmeiro threatened to sue over accusations of usage.

These are not the actions (reactions) of a population that thinks taking steroids is okay or harmless. Don't argue with me about the issue, argue with the baseball players.

[Archive]

Posted By: identify7

drcycleback: do not empower others to determine right from wrong, establish that based on your own criteria. Exactly what is improper, in your assessment, in the taking of a substance which will improve your ability.

[Archive]

Posted By: davidcycleback

Ask Bonds, Palmeiro or McGwire. They have often stated that they are against the use of steroids. I beleive McGwire said MLBers using it is a bad influence on kids, Bonds is also against kids using it and Palmeiro has said he considers it cheating.

[Archive]

Posted By: identify7

what is improper, in your assessment, in the taking of a substance which will improve your ability.

[Archive]

Posted By: davidcycleback

Stereoids are bad for you, even causing premature death, and kids imitate professional athletes. If MLBers take more and more steroids, 11 and 12 year olds will take more steroids. I also think that it is bad when, in order to compete with others using the drugs, a 17 high school senior or 18 Dominican or college junior has to take dangerous drugs.

If and when taking steroids without a presciption becomes legal, I will reconsider my position as stated above. But, as it is illegal for both 37 MLBers and 11 year old kids to be taking steroids without a prescription, my position remains.

[Archive]

Posted By: identify7

Thank you drcycleback.

I hope that you will consider further inquiries regarding your opinion, which is valued by us all.

Specifically: If a professional athlete, fully informed of the potentials associated with a substance, and with the concurrence of a doctor, avails himself of the option of taking a performance enhancing drug; has that athlete done something immoral?

Edited to add:

Never mind, David. I am not sure that this question has merit. Thank you for your candor.

[Archive]

Posted By: Anson

Banned substances do not reflect the changes or trends of a game through time. I am, by no means, a purist. But, I do feel that, unless you allow all MLB ballplayers to use particular enhancements, then it IS cheating. These guys took this stuff under the radar of Major League Baseball. IF you want to give them a pat on the back and pretend that, all of a sudden, 35-45 year olds should be breaking every power record to date, go ahead.

As I stated earlier, Bonds would have made the Hall and been considered a great no matter what. He chose to use the steroids and degrade his career in the minds of many. Many of the current 500-HR club members took full, avg 30-hr per season, careers to achieve their status. They didn't pile up 200-250HR over a 4-year period, late in their careers (where most players of the past were in their twilight).

I would love to ignore the impact of steroids and move on like everyone else. It's a dark cloud over an otherwise great game. But, I don't put it on the same level as spitballs, nail files, and pine tar.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

Steroids were not banned by baseball until 2 years ago. So technically, these players were not breaking any baseball rules. And yes, I do believe that baseball should not have to make a rule to make something illegal that is already legally against the law. This where the player's union needs to be held accountable.

I never understood why baseball didn't need to make coke and pot use illegal, but they need to create a rule that makes steroids illegal. Once again, this falls to the player's union. Coke and pot don't make you a better player, but steroids will, so the players union will fight tooth and nail to try and keep it around. Just look at the joke of a punishment scale they have. Why in the world doesn it take 5 or more times of being caught before they realize there is a problem. Getting the caught the second time should clue enough there is a problem.

Jay

Last year there was a fistfight between fans and players at a professional basketball game. Not to be outdone, the National Hockey League has announced that not only will several fans be beaten every period, but one lucky fan each game will be run over by the Zamboni.

[Archive]

Posted By: warshawlaw

But why don't we ever hear stuff about steroids and pitchers? Haven't some of the caught players been pitchers? I would think that if a pitcher could bulk up and add a foot to his fastball, so to speak, it would have a huge impact.

Not that any relief pitcher for the Dodgers I can think of would have gained massive weight in his upper body and neck over an off-season and suddenly set the record for most consecutive saves or anything...

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

Actually, I think most of the players that have been busted for postive tests have been pitchers. And let's not mention a certain Astros pitchers that is doing unheard of things at an even more advanced age than Bonds. But god forbid anyone even whisper the "S" word when they talk about him even though he shows many of the classic signs of use.

This also points up the fact that even though hitters are bulking up, they are also competing against juiced up pitchers.

Jay

Last year there was a fistfight between fans and players at a professional basketball game. Not to be outdone, the National Hockey League has announced that not only will several fans be beaten every period, but one lucky fan each game will be run over by the Zamboni.

[Archive]

Posted By: warshawlaw

I don't think the body by Pillsbury Clemens sports is a classic sign of steroid use.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

Clemens is far from the fat tub of goo that is David Wells or others pitchers.

Jay

Last year there was a fistfight between fans and players at a professional basketball game. Not to be outdone, the National Hockey League has announced that not only will several fans be beaten every period, but one lucky fan each game will be run over by the Zamboni.

[Archive]

Posted By: Judge Dred (Fred)

Clemens on roids? Wow. Look at another ex-Astro whose career lasted much longer than most. I believe that Clemens and Ryan can attribute their longevity to a strict training regimine and the fact that they only had to abuse themselves every 5 days or so. I'd be willing to bet that they protected those arms and realized the importance of strong legs in their profession.

Bonds will always be the poster "child" (athlete) for baseball players "accused" of taking steroids. Bonds is a gifted athlete but the fact that he keeps denying it really makes a lot of the public feel insulted. Bonds says that steroids doesn't improve help eye/hand coordination... no duh... but that bat speed thing has just a little to do with the equation of crushing the ball. Bonds eye/hand coordination didn't need improving, he's gifted with great eye/hand coordination.

Look at the STATS for Bonds:

1986 - 1999 AB: 6976 HR: 377 HR/18.5 AB

2000 - 2005 AB: 2164 HR: 263 HR/8.2 AB

I have a hard time believing that he had an epiphany about hitting a baseball after coming off his injury in 2000. He trained hard in the off season and came back stronger than ever. Yes, players mature and often reach their prime later in their careers but this is a bit of a stretch. Remember the "clear" and the "cream" and thousand dollar tubes of "flax seed oil"...

I realize some people in this forum are going to hate this post but since it was brought up I thought I'd throw in my 2 cents...

I'm sorry if anyone is offended by my opinion, but it is my opinion. Bonds would have gone down as one of the greatest ball players without any enhancements. It's too bad his legacy will be questioned and tarnished.

I give credit to McGwire for being an honest person.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

McGwire honest? You are kidding, right? I guess if you consider avoiding answering the question being honest, then so be it.

Jay

Last year there was a fistfight between fans and players at a professional basketball game. Not to be outdone, the National Hockey League has announced that not only will several fans be beaten every period, but one lucky fan each game will be run over by the Zamboni.

[Archive]

Posted By: warshawlaw

Doesn't that even out I mean for every guy sporting a big neck and shriveled 'nads with lumber in hand, isn't there a pitcher who's suddenly found 5 mph on his fastball?

[Archive]

Posted By: Anson

It makes for more kinetic energy to increase velocity on the ball, once it leaves the bat.