Random Effects Models, Correlation Coefficients,

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

and Linear Regression Analysis be darned. It is my contention that anyone who has actually played baseball knows that some people hit better in the clutch than others. Similarly rallies are real and success and failure is contageous.

This is the reason that I agree with Jay that Tony Oliva was a powerful force on the Twins, much more so than Killebrew; and the same is true for Berra/Mantle and countless other combinations of clutch hitters with sluggers.

The primary reason that I value the clutch hitter above the slugger is that in the midst of a rally the former is likely to double while the latter will more often strike out. And rallies produce significant runs, turn games around or put them out of reach.

So what? So: who is the best? How about a slugger who doesn't typically deflate a rally with a strike out. Johnny Mize, the Klu, Ted Williams come to mind.

Or maybe the boys from Sabr are right, all of this is imaginary. What do you think?