Drying up cards-- maybe not

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Posted By: leon

Figured I would start a new thread pertaining to the sentiment about where all of the nice cards have gone. Answer: A lot are still out there. Maybe just not as many are making it to auction houses? In the last two weeks I managed several very good private buys from board members. An M117, (2) D303 General Bakings, the E222's- AWA and AWH, a D304 (still on his way)- all done privately, and several good Ebay buys too..... I am only saying this to illustrate that there are still good cards to be had. Vigilance is a prerequisite..........(most all of the issues in the other thread were true too about supply)....good luck and happy hunting

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Posted By: Jimmy Scott Elkins

buying up all the rare cards in sight! Just kidding! You are correct - the BEST way to obtain the scarcer cards is through private deals. Every now and then, some rarer cards are listed on eBay - you had better be ready to bid however. This brings me to another point - Anybody else notice how mid-grade T206's are going for more $ than ever on eBay - especially Johnson, Matty and Young??? It also seems that the lesser HOF'ers are increasing in value along with the scarcer 150 Series cards. Brent Garrett and I have been talking about these increases. However, we have both been out of the Hobby for a couple years and just getting back into it within the last few months - maybe it is just us - maybe we are trying to find these cards at the price levels of a couple years back?

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Posted By: TBob

I was discussing this with Leon the other day. It's not so much that cards are drying up as there is an influx of new blood in the vintage card hobby. I don't know if this is more collector driven or investment driven, although I have my suspicions, but there has been an influx. Couple this with the fact that there are some collectors out there, myself included, who are set collectors as opposed to type collectors and are in it for the long haul and don't plan on flipping the cards anytime soon, and you can see why the caramel card market has been blazing lately. Right now might be a good time to move horizontally in to the T213 Coupon set or the T209s while the prices are still within reason. Obaks are still out there at a reasonable price too (T212) and thank God most collectors don't collect them because they are "minor league" cards, never realizing that the 3 sets contain the first appearance (dare I say the "R" word?) of many major league players and are beautiful to boot.

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Posted By: Adam J. Baxter

I think that most of the current frenzied buying, especially on eBay, has a lot more to do with new collectors getting into pre-wwI and II issues then cards drying up. I began to see a real flurry of bidding on eBay around mid-November, especially on caramel issues. I collect N172, T212, and Caramel issues and the only substantial change IMO has been with the caramels. Bidding competition for these has been very heavy and the tougher the issue, the tougher the competition. There definitely seems to be a lot of "new blood" buying up e-cards, especially everything from e92 thru e98. Obaks, when they've been available, have seen a little bit of an increase bidding, especially with what seems to be newer collectors. While the competition for those has been a little bit higher, the prices have stayed very reasonable. N172's don't seem to be doing as well as they had been for lower grades, but mid-grade and slabbed examples still seem to be doing well overall. I think a lot of deals can still be found in many of the vintage minor league issues, T209, T210 and T212. Which is great as I love'em. Just my opinion based on what I've seen on eBay lately.

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Posted By: botn

I would have to agree. I have bought more collections and spent more money in the past year then I have in any other year. I have also managed to put away a nice collection of higher grade caramel cards. I do see prices on certain issues fluctuating as of late.

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Posted By: MW

Anyone who makes blanket claims of vintage cards drying up, usually does so for a very specific reason. One reason I can think of off the top of my head is that they're in charge of consignments for a major auction house and they're not "getting any".

In reality, I think the hobby runs in cycles. During any given month there will be a set du jour that a group of collectors will chase after with an unbridled passion. The short term result is that this issue will appear to be drying up, when in fact, it merely reflects a common market dynamic. New collections and private vintage stocks are constantly being introduced to the hobby. Collectors don't live forever (well, except for Leon who will probably be buried with his cards), so eventually, even the rarest issues find their way back into the hands of other eager collectors.

Also, I think collectors are becoming more intelligent. No longer are they willing to be held hostage by the consignment whims of a major auction house. Instead, they realize that many other, more promising avenues exist for the liquidation of their prized vintage cards -- whether it be eBay or retail sales to other collectors. The net result is that some companies are beginning to feel the dreaded "vintage crunch." Of course, this cuts into profits and makes it much more difficult for some company executives to buy themselves a new Mercedes.

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Posted By: Eric Pugh

For once in my life, I could not agree more with you, and that last line about the Mercedes was a good one. The fact is, if you are vigilant, as the previous poster stated, you can find collections of untapped, ungraded cards that can make your "find of the year". Every time I invest in an ad or really work the convention circuit - something positive seems to always happen. I would be interested to hear from MW or someone who has a history of running major advertisments seeking collections - to learn of what those results are typically like.

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Posted By: murcerfan

..as the hobby continues to be more and more internet based, it seems much easier for casual collectors to become "advanced", as the information about cards is readily available, not to mention the cards and images of cards. It's like going to a card show every night, only it's 24/7/365.
Ten years ago, only us freaks that studied the SCD bibles and related literature and scurried around to shows, where information could be piecemealed together from conversing with other freaks.

also, the exploding population of graded vintage cards and the e-bay phenomenom, allow one the action without the fear of getting burned or having to do much more than clicking one's 'mouse'.

I think a lot of these factors will conspire to show some real swings in supply and demand, at least in the short term. It is inevitable that demand will outstrip supply for pre-war cards.

Then again, maybe I'm just stumbling across another elysian field, happy in my own ignorance

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Posted By: Mrc32

I'm not sure that the T-205s that I collect are exactly drying up. When I started my set at the beginning of the year there were only 50-75 cards on ebay at any one time. Now there are usually 125 or more on any given day.

The quality is sporadic so I am not sure one can say all the top condition cards are gone into collections forever.

I will say that the prices have shot through the roof for that set. I'm paying 50-75% more than I was just last spring. Since I am disciplined in what I pay, my building of this set has slowed down.

I can't speak for other sets, just the one that I collect T-205s, but there are a lot of really nice collections out there. Eventually they will come to market, whether it is ebay or another auction house.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

1: Us! Between the active posters and the lurkers, there are at least 50 "hardcore" prewar collectors here. When a few of us get a "bug" on a specific set or type of card (e.g., the caramel cards ebola of the last several months), the infection often spreads. Some of us get the bug, too; others see a chance to make some $$ by snapping up examples of the cards in question and offering them to the victims of the bug. Look at the ebay bidding lists--lots of the same names appear. ebay then sets the market tone: collectors see lots of bucks on these cards on ebay and keep them or self-market them rather than consigning them (I could kick myself for consigning a lot of lower grade e cards to auctions around 5 years ago). So, to a Mastro, it looks like the supply is drying up.

2: It's the economy, stupid! The stock market is going back up, real estate is through the roof, and there are signs at long last of some actual sustaned growth. Perceptions are everything and when people see and hear about troubles and job losses, they tend to batten down the hatches and stop spending, even if their fields are unaffected. Conversely, when things seem to be going well or are perceived to be improving, people loosen up again.

3: Good Ol' American Competition: There are a lot of major auctions now. Lelands, Mastro, Lipset, Lifson's new one, Superior, SCP, Madec, etc., etc., etc. Mastro used to be the only auctioneer with a booth at shows; now there are several. The pie is being cut up a different way.

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Posted By: Harry

They are still getting their share of material to sell. Lelands recent auction was about 5 million and the Mastronet auction did over 10 million. There are more and more vintage items on ebay. Their stock is at an all-time high and the company is worth more than 40 billion dollars- that is more than either Ford or General Motors!

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Posted By: Julie

that would be like--like feeling sorry for LEON (no comparison meant, Leon, except in having a good deal of what you want: in your case, your collection, in their cases, $$$.)

I am getting stuff cheaper than I was a year ago--but I have noticed that the major auctions (Mastro, Verkman, Leland's SCP, etc.) have less vintage material than usual. Barry SLoate had a DANDY one not to long ago, though.

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Posted By: leon

Even us Luckey guys have feelings too. I certainly don't always get what I want. I wish I did (sort of). I will say that I am head over wallet addicted though....Who was it that said that money is easier to replace than cards?..take care and happy holidays....

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Posted By: John(z28jd)

Leon,or whoever originally said it,im going to steal that phrase "money is easier to replace than cards".

the other day i needed to dress up for an occasion and i have absolutely nothing resembling dress up clothes. My mother told me to go out and buy something and i told her i just spent all my money on cards which i literally did.Had to borrow $3 to buy the last money order,thats how broke i was.Didnt tell her it was almost $500 for 2 cards.I think im addicted

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Posted By: Julie

..still want to steal it?

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Posted By: John(z28jd)

Sure why not Julie,its the holiday season so id be more than willing to steal anything from you!!

To be honest,i think Leon put it more eloquent than you did,so im going to steal it from him.I already used it a few times with the LL trademark at the end

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Posted By: runscott

I'm envisioning a whackier version of the "Keanu Reeves/Diane Keaton" thing.

Are you two meeting in Paris?