Comps: Breakdown of a Babe-a-licious Deal

[JollyElm]

godfathergreentintspullmebackin.jpg

Yammering alert: this is nothing but a single card I purchased, so it should probably be relegated to the 'new pick-ups' thread, but I wanted to
start a new thread instead (with rhymes, apparently) to go in-depth about examining graded card comps.
So, if you’re in the mood for a light weekend read with a touch of humor, carry on...otherwise, cut your losses and run!!


The beginning:
We all have a sixth sense when it comes to the cards and sets we are very interested in and highly familiar with.
The personal expertness (which doesn't seem like an actual word, but I assure you it is), which often gives us a bit of an advantage in specific areas of the collecting world.

For me, this sums it up...
iseegreentints25.jpg


So when I ran into this new listing (it was the first 'hit' in my search - meaning it was only listed a mere moments before, because this search constantly has new items added 24/7),
my ears perked up like The Easter Bunny after chugging a basket full of Red Bulls!!!
Even without checking comps, my brain was screaming that this price was too good to be true!!! It's a beautiful and newly graded ("Today's SIX is yesterday's NINE") piece of deliciousness...

(Spoiler alert: this screenshot is from AFTER I hit the BIN button. The original listing had an opening bid of $69.95 (or maybe $69.99?) and a Buy-It-Now of $99.95.)
1962babe139originallisting.jpg
(Newly detected: just noticed that next to "Condition" the listing says PSA 4, NOT PSA 6. Maybe that's an important element in this tale?)

Due to my pseudo-expertise in ‘green tints,’ I know a few things:
• First, 'The Babe' in his 60 homer, eco-friendly glory (get it, 'green'?) is quite clearly the key card to the 'green tint' subset.
• Secondly, high grade versions are extremely tough to come by and almost never seen, so nice looking mid-grade cards sort of fill the rather empty 'high grade' slot (only an occasional 7 or 8 ever comes up for sale).
• Lastly, and very importantly, these variations go for decent bread. Thusly, a nice looking six must be 'worth' a good amount (not a cruise to Alaska money,
but certainly enough to upgrade your 6 piece Chicken McNuggets meal to a 10 piece), so this price seemed to be much, much too low.


The zeroing in:
As a collecting predator, I immediately jumped into action to stalk my auction prey, with my first stop being the PSA Auction Prices Realized site, because the data is quick and easy to examine.
Here is what the 'general pricing' showed me when I looked up 1962 Topps #139 Babe Ruth Green Tint. The 6 had a disassociated $150 amount listed...

1962babe139pastsales03.jpg

A deeper dive of 'recent' PSA 6 sales was required...

1962babe139pastsales01.jpg

Okay, so apparently I was wrong. There is nothing crazy about the opening bid being 'only' $69.95, because it's perfectly in line with recent sales (Or so it would seem. Stay tuned.).


The speculating:
Perhaps the dealer checked this same site, and set his $69.95 price to match the data, thinking that if it sold for anything more than that, it would be gravy??

(But a bit of strangeness was also revealed by the fact I saw a very noticeably off-centered PSA 5 sold for $113.50 in January.
If such a 5 is worth so much, shouldn't a very nice 6 well eclipse that price??)


And I also thought of that March 22, 2021 sale for 150 bones. An outlier or a COVID climb, perhaps?
Nope, that didn't sound right, so I dove into the first two listings themselves, and BOOM!!! I was right to be suspicious...

1962babe139pastsalesPSA6sA35.jpg
1962babe139pastsalesPSA6sB35.jpg

Neither of those cards were listed correctly, as both had dreaded qualifiers attached to them, so those prices were pure fiction!! The MC is pretty damning, because that cuts (pun intended) the value of the card off at the knees.
The ST is a bit of a gray area, because if the wax/gum residue is on front, it could be 'corrected' easily enough and resubmitted, but if it's on back (as this one would seem to be), then its permanence hurts the value big-time.

So, if the latest real, true PSA 6 sold four years ago for $150, then the card I'm looking at is an absolute steal for a hundred shekels, no??


The lateral thinking:
My GT experience told me that there are untold numbers of these variations listed incorrectly by PSA, so I also searched 1962 Topps #139 Babe Ruth (without adding "Green Tint"), and look what I discovered...

1962babe139pastsales0745.jpg

A pair of 'green tints' were hiding in plain sight there, both selling for $150 or more a couple of years back...so clearly they are worth a helluva lot more right now, right??


The opening of the books:
Knowing I needed more info, I engaged the past sales feature of eBay itself and followed it to the great 130point site to grab me some more data.
It showed two very recent sales of PSA 6 cards (the one in the middle here is the 'regular,' non-GT version) for some serious scharole (refer to the pic of Michael Corleone from earlier)...

1962babe139pastsales02.jpg
1962babe139pastsales04.jpg

Over 300 clams (I'm running out of synonyms for money) apiece???!!!!
Couldn't I simply buy the card immediately and flip it for a sweet profit????? What am I missing???!!!!
(The sound of the ticking clock in my head was growing louder and louder as I thought of someone beating me to this great deal!!!)
Like the aforementioned (that word makes me sound smart) Christian-inspired rabbit, shouldn't I jump, and I mean jump immediately?????

Fighting with my cheap self (who wanted to bid just a little above the opening bid in the hopes of eventually getting it for less than the $99.95 BIN), I finally (politely) told that version of myself to go EFF himself, and hop I did, clicking the hell out of that Buy-It-Now button!!!!


The landing:
And here is my prized Babe at last. An absolute beauty!!!

I either got him for 1/3 of what it should have gone for, based on the $300+ prices, or 1/3 less than what it should have sold for, based on the $150 prices (it was my understanding that there would be no math), so one way or another it was a big win!! (Or was it? Keep reading.)

1962babe139final.jpg


The metaphorical shooting myself in the foot:
But just like every road whore has the clap, there's always a price to pay when you wanna bring a babe (or 'The Babe') home.

hookerleaningintocar40.jpg

Since this entire thread is only focused on comps (eye appeal, etc., is just assumed), the end result is that I did myself no favors.
The phenomenal price I paid now sadly represents the latest comp to buyers out there...meaning those great 300 buckaroo amounts are meaningless things of the past, and my card is ONLY 'worth' the $99.95 I paid for it.

(Now I gotta search eBay for tissues to dab my flowing tears.)


Edited to add:
The listing of alternatives:
To go full circle, these are the current listings for graded sixes...

1962babe139currentPSASGC6listings.jpg

[savedfrommyspokes]

Nice pick-up Darren, awesome looking GT card.