Ebay experiment: PSA vs. SGC

[Mark17]

OK, not quite apples to apples, but close.

This evening I ran these 2 auctions:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/155085096215
https://www.ebay.com/itm/155085093904

Same card, identical descriptions, closing the same night within 2 minutes of each other. The results:

PSA 5 received 11 bids and sold for $118.50. It had 143 views.
SGC 4.5 received 1 bid and sold for $60.00. It had 35 views.

I can't imagine the half grade difference alone could count for the quadruple number of views, or doubling of the high bid.

[ullmandds]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFRBPNEt6Hs

[Leon]

Sgc one is quite off center...
.

[ullmandds]

oops!

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Leon

Sgc one is quite off center...
.

ya...the difference in centering is pretty significant...and with a common registry set type card like this the difference will be more noticeable than say a goudey ruth...imo!

[JollyElm]

When I see anything graded a 4, my immediate thought is 'wrinkle or crease,' and when I see anything graded a 5, I have no such 'fears.' That (I assume common thought among collectors) probably plays a role.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

When I see anything graded a 4, my immediate thought is 'wrinkle or crease,' and when I see anything graded a 5, I have no such 'fears.' That (I assume common thought among collectors) probably plays a role.

And when I see a 4 now, my immediate thought is 6 or 7 but the submitter was some anonymous collector not a favorite with connections.

[ValKehl]

I suspect the main reason the PSA card sold for significantly more is because it's much better centered, as others have noted.

The PSA cards had 4 times as many views as the SGC card. This could be interpreted as collector bias toward PSA, which many/most of us already acknowledge, especially for post-War cards.

Also, there are collectors who are putting together 1957 Topps sets with all cards graded the same. A mid-grade set collector might well strive for a complete set graded 5-EX. But, I've never heard of a collector striving to complete a set graded 4.5. This could be one reason the PSA card generated more interest and the higher price.

[bobbyw8469]

I just checked out VCP averages for your experiment. You had an opening bid for the PSA 5 of $60 with a VCP average of $108. For your SGC 4.5, you had an opening bid of $60 with a VCP average of $68. Your experiment isn't as revealing to me as you think it is. Everything sold near their average. If anything, it gives me hope that the market is crashing in the face of this recession.

[darwinbulldog]

I'm currently running a pair of Walter Payton rookies, an SGC 7 and a PSA 7. Both look equally nice to me. Here's where they stand with a couple of days left.

1976 Topps #148 Walter Payton SGC 7 Near Mint HOF RC Chicago Bears
$355.00 Current bid
+ Shipping (buyer pays $5.00)
91
Views
39
Watchers
19
Bids


1976 Topps #148 Walter Payton PSA 7 Near Mint HOF RC Chicago Bears
$315.00 Current bid
+ Shipping (buyer pays $5.00)
137
Views
46
Watchers
40
Bids

[Zach Wheat]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I just checked out VCP averages for your experiment. You had an opening bid for the PSA 5 of $60 with a VCP average of $108. For your SGC 4.5, you had an opening bid of $60 with a VCP average of $68. Your experiment isn't as revealing to me as you think it is. Everything sold near their average. If anything, it gives me hope that the market is crashing in the face of this recession.

What was surprising to me was the differential in # of views. Glenn's auction described 1 post above, is much closer.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

I'm currently running a pair of Walter Payton rookies, an SGC 7 and a PSA 7. Both look equally nice to me. Here's where they stand with a couple of days left.

1976 Topps #148 Walter Payton SGC 7 Near Mint HOF RC Chicago Bears
$355.00 Current bid
+ Shipping (buyer pays $5.00)
91
Views
39
Watchers
19
Bids


1976 Topps #148 Walter Payton PSA 7 Near Mint HOF RC Chicago Bears
$315.00 Current bid
+ Shipping (buyer pays $5.00)
137
Views
46
Watchers
40
Bids

I would be curious to see where these end.

[Frank A]

With the price of cards today, the set registry will probably collapse. Who in their right mind would pay some of the stupid prices for commons. After that the rush for PSA will probably cool off a lot.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I would be curious to see where these end.

Here's where they ended up. PSA sold for about 6% more than SGC in this case.


1976 Topps #148 Walter Payton SGC 7 Near Mint HOF RC Chicago Bears
$547.87 Current bid
+ Shipping (buyer pays $5.00)
213
Views
48
Watchers
33
Bids


1976 Topps #148 Walter Payton PSA 7 Near Mint HOF RC Chicago Bears
$580.00 Current bid
+ Shipping (buyer pays $5.00)
305
Views
66
Watchers
58
Bids

[bobbyw8469]

Interesting....thank you for sharing.

[timzcardz]

The images in the auctions do not appear to be of the same quality.

The image of the PSA card appears much clearer/crisper that that of the SGC card.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And when I see a 4 now, my immediate thought is 6 or 7 but the submitter was some anonymous collector not a favorite with connections.

This is becoming more and more true every day it seems. I don't believe for one second that all submitters just get graders assigned to their orders at random. I've had so many cards at PSA come back 2 full grades low in recent months. I won't even send them anything anymore. I just end up paying twice to grade it. Now I just send it straight to SGC where I get a fair and accurate grade every time.

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by Snowman

This is becoming more and more true every day it seems. I don't believe for one second that all submitters just get graders assigned to their orders at random. I've had so many cards at PSA come back 2 full grades low in recent months. I won't even send them anything anymore. I just end up paying twice to grade it. Now I just send it straight to SGC where I get a fair and accurate grade every time.

Ditto +1

[bobbyw8469]

My most recent $50 sub was a mix of T206's and 30s, 40s, and 50s cards. They HAMMERED the T206's (Sorry Sonny).....

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

My most recent $50 sub was a mix of T206's and 30s, 40s, and 50s cards. They HAMMERED the T206's (Sorry Sonny).....

Oof. Ya, my last sub was pretty bad too. I had a Pele RC, a 52 Bowman Mays, and a 49 Bowman Jackie that were all in VGish condition. No creases or wrinkles or surface flaws, no print defects, nothing like that. Just some moderate corner wear. PSA gave me 1s on both the Pele and the Mays, and tried to upcharge me to give me a 2 on the Jackie. I told them to pound sand and just send me the Jackie back ungraded. Then I sent them all off to SGC where they got 2.5s and 3.5s.

It's getting bad. Before, I was only getting the terrible/noob/inexperienced graders on ultra-modern stuff. Now, I'm getting them on $10k+ cards.

I also have a beautiful 86 Fleer Jordan RC that is dead-centered and dead mint. It was in an SGC 9 holder when I bought it, but I decided to grade shop it around for fun. PSA rejected it as a crossover (which they often do) so I cracked it out and decided to send it in raw. They said it was "altered" , so I sent it to BGS and they gave it a 9++ (9.5, 9, 9, 9.5 sub grades - almost a gem mint. It's one of the nicest 9s I've ever seen. PSA screwed me twice on it. And I know the 86 Fleer set and grades very well. I've subbed hundreds of these cards. My grades are always spot on with 86 Fleer basketball (or at least they were until recently at PSA, and they're still spot on with SGC and CSG).

PSA is putting inexperienced graders on high-end vintage stuff now. Guys who just finished slamming a Red Bull that came back from lunch break with Cheetoh fingers who had never even seen a vintage card prior to their training course last month.

And if you believe the "we have 2 to 3 graders evaluating every card" line that PSA proclaims, I've got a bridge to sell you. That's nonsense.

It's gotten so bad, that I now find myself seeking arbitrage opportunities for cards in PSA slabs whose serial numbers start with 6xxx. I'm not even all that interested in flipping cards, but PSA is now flooding the market with $10k cards in $4k holders. Getting your cards slabbed with PSA used to be a value add. Nowadays, a card often loses value after they put an EX-MT card in a 3 holder.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

This is becoming more and more true every day it seems. I don't believe for one second that all submitters just get graders assigned to their orders at random. I've had so many cards at PSA come back 2 full grades low in recent months. I won't even send them anything anymore. I just end up paying twice to grade it. Now I just send it straight to SGC where I get a fair and accurate grade every time.

I've said for years to anyone who would listen, all submitters are equal, some are more equal than others.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I've said for years to anyone who would listen, all submitters are equal, some are more equal than others.

Spaethism