National pricing

[Snapolit1]

Will be real interesting. Anyone who doesn’t realize prices have come down hard in many corners of the hobby isn’t paying much attention. I’ve mostly been buying memorabilia, primarily ticket stubs and photos lately. Prices are down pretty hard on most of what I look at. Things that exploded up to 7-8k are now down 50% or more. If sellers are going to stick to prices from last winter and then add a National premium on to that …. going to hear a lot of stories like “good crowd …. didn’t sell as much as I wanted”. I dont envy sellers in this environment. Seems the economic pressures have now really impacted the hobby significantly. Will alway be the multi millionaires buying the $800,000 cards …. but the guy making $75,000 or $100,000 is not buying the way he used to. I see the same stuff sitting on ebay and sitting and sitting. No, no one is going to pay you $5000 for a ticket stub that just sold at an AH for $1700. No one is going to pay you $12,000 for the photo you bought last year for $2700.

[Jetsfan]

Although I won’t be attending, I wonder if the smart strategy this year would be to attend later in the week and see if sellers are more willing to negotiate (assuming they’re holding firm on prices earlier in the show). Of course, that would be if you’re not looking for super rare items which I’d think could go day 1.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Jetsfan

Although I won’t be attending, I wonder if the smart strategy this year would be to attend later in the week and see if sellers are more willing to negotiate (assuming they’re holding firm on prices earlier in the show). Of course, that would be if you’re not looking for super rare items which I’d think could go day 1.

Super rare will always sell. If it's a card people spend years chasing someone will open the wallet quickly. It's the PSA 4 and 5s that we see in every auction that are really hard to price in this market.

[brikks]

Hey all. This will be my first National as well. I'll be looking for 1914 Cracker Jacks and a few other pre-War vintage. I was planning to use VCP for a starting point on prices, but also hoping to get some good value for paying in cash. I'm more of a negotiator than haggler, so hoping good vibes are on my side.

[rjackson44]

The vintage market is strong no one is giving anything away no one ,,dont know what steve is looking at ??

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

The vintage market is strong no one is giving anything away no one ,,dont know what steve is looking at ??

I follow Gehrig cards to what some would say it a rather obsessive degree. It's like 95% of my collection. Prices have softened. In some cases rather significantly. Here's one rather striking example.

Heritage just sold a 1925 Gehrig Exhibits 3(MK) for $75,000
LOTG sold a 1925 Gehrig 3(MK) Exhibits in March 2021 for $160,000

Just like the stock market . . . not every stock moves in tandem.

[1954 topps]

I'm still seeing record sales on high grade 1950's stuff. Stars, commons, doesn't matter. High condition centered cards always have a strong market.

[Republicaninmass]

Signed cards have never been higher!

Signed 52t May's psa 3...40k!!!

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I follow Gehrig cards to what some would say it a rather obsessive degree. It's like 95% of my collection. Prices have softened. In some cases rather significantly. Here's one rather striking example.

Heritage just sold a 1925 Gehrig Exhibits 3(MK) for $75,000
LOTG sold a 1925 Gehrig 3(MK) Exhibits in March 2021 for $160,000

Just like the stock market . . . not every stock moves in tandem.

You realize this is/was a 3-5k card?

Or no the "market was wrong" for 30 years and "just discovered" it is worth 75-125k?

5k to 75k in less than a decade Certainly isnt "crashing"

[Snapolit1]

Who said anything was crashing?

I just think for the vast majority of cards sellers are not going to get 2021 prices for them. Big boy cards will continue to do ok largely. People who pay $200,000 for a card aren't too concerned with gas prices and rent going up. But supposedly the economy is the number one concern of most Americans by far. If that’s the case would be awfully peculiar if our corner of the world is somehow unaffected.

Rich people will continue to buy new BMWs. Will people who aren’t rich going to continue to buy new Toyotas and KIAs?

[BobbyStrawberry]

I have no experience in the world of 5- and 6-figure cards, but for 3- to 4-figure prewar cards, recent AH results and the bst here sure seem to indicate an overall downward trend in prices from 1-2 years ago.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

I have no experience in the world of 5- and 6-figure cards, but for 3- to 4-figure prewar cards, recent AH results and the bst here sure seem to indicate an overall downward trend in prices from 1-2 years ago.

But apparently people who only focus on the marquis waterfront cards don’t see this.

[Rhotchkiss]

That Gehrig example is pretty dramatic and, I think, surprising.

[Snapolit1]

Market got a little frothy last year. We were all bored and inside all day trying to keep ourselves amused. Now things are a little more “normal”.

My intent was not to dump on the market. But just to say that while there is usually a National or big show premium tacked onto to nice stuff, I suspect this year there will be a lot of inflated asks. I hope seller’s get what they ask. Good for them. But for people setting up with cases full of cool shit we do t have a show at all.

I hope I find a lot of cool shit to buy. I also hope I make massive money playing cards. If they both happen I will be the happiest guy in AC.

[Snapolit1]

Might even hit the Boardwalk after midnight.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Prices on 90s basketball have absolutely cratered. I suspect this is more broadly the case in many modern segments.

Whatever the reality, based on reports I have heard since time immemorial, I expect people going to AC will see mostly aspirational prices at least until the end of the show.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Might even hit the Boardwalk after midnight.

It's down pretty hard out there, not crashing though

[Johnny630]

People are going to be spending like it’s no tomorrow; the vintage card market, significantly higher end, is Stronger than ever and will see higher and Higher sold prices. The consumer who buys vintage higher end cards is in very Sound financial shape.

Modern, I have no idea…the current is the same as Bally’s; it’s a Casino.

[Oscar_Stanage]

As someone trying to add mid tier HOFers, I have not seen the market move at all. I am actually surprised as I figured these would fall hard.
The prices I am seeing are still $300-$500 for something graded "G" with solid presentation:
Joss, Rube, Bender, Baker, etc. I won't be paying those prices, but I don't expect any for less at the Natty.

Perhaps the ultimately bellwether is $900 for any of the 3 Lajoies in "G".
have not seen these come down, will see.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Market got a little frothy last year. We were all bored and inside all day trying to keep ourselves amused. Now things are a little more “normal”.

My intent was not to dump on the market. But just to say that while there is usually a National or big show premium tacked onto to nice stuff, I suspect this year there will be a lot of inflated asks. I hope seller’s get what they ask. Good for them. But for people setting up with cases full of cool shit we do t have a show at all.

I hope I find a lot of cool shit to buy. I also wish I make massive money playing cards. If they both happen, I will be the happiest guy in AC.

I agree Steve, I get what you’re saying however, there will be a lot of inflated asking prices; I've spoken with several larger dealers about this. They told me they’d instead hold on to their material at high asking prices because said dealer made so much over the past two years they’re OK with holding. They further said the market would get hot again, and the cards would be just as high, if not higher, so they’re not letting go.

[BeanTown]

Every thread needs some cards. Love early Gehrig cards from the 20s. Here are a couple color variations that you don’t see often.

[Snapolit1]

Those Gehrigs are in no danger of crashing anytime soon. Beautiful amazing cards.

[oldjudge]

The true indicator will be REA which opens tomorrow. My guess is that prices on better baseball material will do just fine. But, like they say, time will tell.

[Brian Van Horn]

There is one constant about the National, outside of an arrest or two. Prices are overrrrpriced. That, however, is down from overrrrrrrrrrpriced. The word "bargain" is rarer than any rarity.

[parkplace33]

If you are going to the National looking for deals, you will be sorely disappointed. Prices have soften, but you never know that from dealers.

[glynparson]

Honestly my stuff is priced between don’t care if it doesn’t sell and should sell because it’s less than ebay or vcp and I’ll discount off that. The stuff that’s high I Ike so I don’t mind keeping. The other stuff I might still like but not as much and have to sell Some things to pay bills.

[Casey2296]

If we're talking about rare cards, say less than 10 examples, the "good deal" is access to that card. The network is what's valuable, "I know a guy who knows a guy" etc. Price at that point is secondary depending on how bad you want that card. Are there good financial deals at that point, I believe there are, I had a friend find me two cards at the National that are pretty rare for what they were at a negotiated price I was happy with, but he knew the dealers and they knew him.

[oldjudge]

For me the problem in recent years wasn’t the prices; I expected them to be high. The problem was that there was virtually no scarce 19th century baseball material except on the auction house tables. Hopefully, that will not be the case for those attending this year, but that would surprise me.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Might even hit the Boardwalk after midnight.

Fine idea, as long as you are packing.

[bnorth]

I know during the amazing run up junk era was selling like crazy. Stuff I couldn't give away was suddenly selling like crazy. Now it has really slowed down. Not back to can't give it away but nothing like big run up.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

For me the problem in recent years wasn’t the prices; I expected them to be high. The problem was that there was virtually no scarce 19th century baseball material except on the auction house tables. Hopefully, that will not be the case for those attending this year, but that would surprise me.

Richard M always has a nice selection of rare 19th century cards and TIK still comes up with some stuff.

[ullmandds]

while I agree that many segments of the hobby are down from their pandemic highs...while the cream of the crop still sets records when they transact. The national is ALWAYS full of mostly overpriced cards...especially the good stuff! Why should this year be any different?

Same as it ever was!

[Snapolit1]

sometimes the best move is get the guy’s card and reach out to him in a week with your fingers crossed. has worked for me. has also not worked.

[Steve_NY]

As an exhibitor, I never expect to get 100% of my asking price for most items. I am even negotiable on the rarest of the rare.

I tend to sell at 85% to 90% of my asking price, and this year I am showcasing ten showcases or more (all locked) of the common to the rare. But I am also focusing on significantly rarer items that could feasibly sell in the $10,000 to $100,000 range or more.

Some of those items I am not that negotiable but it depends on whether I have a good show or not. You never know.

I have not experinced this decline in prices that the rest of the market keeps talking about. Well maybe in non sports cards and sets. I expect to have a good show and if not, I will curb my buying during the rest of 2022 and into 2023.

Steve Sabow
DynamicTwo@aol.com
914-522-3853

Booth 1100 6 booths in the main entrance

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Steve_NY

As an exhibitor, I never expect to get 100% of my asking price for most items. I am even negotiable on the rarest of the rare.

I tend to sell at 85% to 90% of my asking price, and this year I am showcasing ten showcases or more (all locked) of the common to the rare. But I am also focusing on significantly rarer items that could feasibly sell in the $10,000 to $100,000 range or more.

Some of those items I am not that negotiable but it depends on whether I have a good show or not. You never know.

I have not experinced this decline in prices that the rest of the market keeps talking about. Well maybe in non sports cards and sets. I expect to have a good show and if not, I will curb my buying during the rest of 2022 and into 2023.

Steve Sabow
DynamicTwo@aol.com
914-522-3853

Booth 1100 6 booths in the main entrance

Report back in this thread next week how you did please.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Steve_NY

As an exhibitor, I never expect to get 100% of my asking price for most items. I am even negotiable on the rarest of the rare.

I tend to sell at 85% to 90% of my asking price, and this year I am showcasing ten showcases or more (all locked) of the common to the rare. But I am also focusing on significantly rarer items that could feasibly sell in the $10,000 to $100,000 range or more.

Some of those items I am not that negotiable but it depends on whether I have a good show or not. You never know.

I have not experinced this decline in prices that the rest of the market keeps talking about. Well maybe in non sports cards and sets. I expect to have a good show and if not, I will curb my buying during the rest of 2022 and into 2023.

Steve Sabow
DynamicTwo@aol.com
914-522-3853

Booth 1100 6 booths in the main entrance

im guessing you have better stuff than most!!!!

[Steve_NY]

I guess that I work hard every year to find rare items. I would say I am in the top 10 percent, but what does that really mean.

The last time we did AC, I barely made my goal, but I hope I will do that quickly this year.

I am making a display in 2 of my showcases of Topps Test cards, wrappers and unopened packs. I also will have many proof cards as well.

If you are a collector of test cards, you really need to see my display, It should be interesting.

In fact, if I don't sell it before the show, I will be highlighting some really rare Topps test packs including only the second 1968 Topps Test Basketball pack ever found. Imagine pulling a Wilt Chamberlin test card that PSA lists at $50,000+ in a PSA 8. Imagine a 9 or 10?

I am also exhibiting a 1968 Topps 3D Baseball pack and a 1968 Topps All Star Baseball Plaks pack. Among others!!!

I just revised my packs for sale list about an hour ago, so contact me if you want a copy.

Steve Sabow
DynamicTwo@aol.com
914-522-3853

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Will be real interesting. Anyone who doesn’t realize prices have come down hard in many corners of the hobby isn’t paying much attention. I’ve mostly been buying memorabilia, primarily ticket stubs and photos lately. Prices are down pretty hard on most of what I look at. Things that exploded up to 7-8k are now down 50% or more. If sellers are going to stick to prices from last winter and then add a National premium on to that …. going to hear a lot of stories like “good crowd …. didn’t sell as much as I wanted”. I dont envy sellers in this environment. Seems the economic pressures have now really impacted the hobby significantly. Will alway be the multi millionaires buying the $800,000 cards …. but the guy making $75,000 or $100,000 is not buying the way he used to. I see the same stuff sitting on ebay and sitting and sitting. No, no one is going to pay you $5000 for a ticket stub that just sold at an AH for $1700. No one is going to pay you $12,000 for the photo you bought last year for $2700.

Thanks Steve for the insights. And if you can point that out to all the people on eBay who are outbidding me I would appreciate that too.

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

[mrreality68]

Some prices are coming down but it is mot consistent and sometimes the next auction the prices look like they are going back up depending the bidders and card.
Right now it might seem a little soft for some but is that because of summers auction fatigue? Every summer there seems to be a ton of auctions at the same time plus Nationals and there is only so much money to go around for all those cards. I am finding that as I bid on cards another auction opens with cards that I want more than what I am currently bidding on(wish I could get them all) so I stop bidding on that card or I am not bidding at all until I see what is coming in the next auction so I do not miss out.

Related to eBay I find that many people put their collection on eBay just for viewing and not really interested in selling but just a place to show off so they put prices that no one would want to pay. I have seen many cards on their for years and years and literally seen them not only not sell but they raise the price

[puckpaul]

I think the February to April 2021 period was a peak speculative run in many parts of the market. Prices corrected in the next few months and to me appear to be steady to strong still since then. One reason is that many interesting cards in PSA 8-10s (thinking 80’s hockey and basketball) never gave people reason to grade them and they weren’t readily available before the price runup, so they hit a frenzy but then supply eventually (and PSA backup loosening) caught up and prices took a decent hit.

Of course the more rare and vintage, the less available and its hard to see too much evidence of the correction. Lower grade Ruths are still strong, but some of the prices in that period were a bit high perhaps. Something like a Gehrig is 3(mk) might have been a fever pitch auction, but excepting that, the Gehrig card remains strong. It probably has more volatility than others because it was so neglected for so long and has had a huge run.

That said, it’s hard to see that the general harsh repricing of equities and bonds and many assets will not spillover to take some of the fluff out of cards here. Thus far it still seems generally strong.

[Johnny630]

Ten years from now we will all be looking at these prices and saying to ourselves man that was cheap back then.

All the good stuff is going up up and away. Get it before it's out of reach.

[Touch'EmAll]

I would bet the big '52 Mantle at Heritage will help fuel vintage prices. Don't see how the Mantle auction would have a negative affect of nice vintage stuff. I am still having hard time pulling the trigger on similar such cards I used to buy, but now the gap may even widen. My recent motto, "don't sell what you have, just be sure to keep it, 'cause you probably aren't going to replace it."

[darwinbulldog]

The Topps era cards that show up most often in the auctions are generally down about 50% from their peak. It's a fool's errand trying to predict what they'll do over the next year, but it's easy to predict that sellers are not going to be extrapolating from the past 17 months of downward slide in setting their prices today.

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

Check out today's article in the Athletic about the current state of the card market. Good stuff

[Ray Van]

Originally Posted by ajjohnsonsoxfan

Check out today's article in the Athletic about the current state of the card market. Good stuff

Haven't read the whole thing yet but skeptical when seeing this early comment in the article:"What is happening now, those within the industry told The Athletic, is that some cards are coming down in price — market corrections, mostly in resale — and the overall market is slightly cooling off of 2021’s record year for retail and resale."

If looking at the hobby as a whole, not vintage, I'd suggest that MOST cards are coming down in price and the overall market is SUBSTANTIALLY cooling off of 2021's record year.

Pretty much everyone interviewed in the story has a vested interest to maintain that the market is healthy despite the recent downturn.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Ray Van

Haven't read the whole thing yet but skeptical when seeing this early comment in the article:"What is happening now, those within the industry told The Athletic, is that some cards are coming down in price — market corrections, mostly in resale — and the overall market is slightly cooling off of 2021’s record year for retail and resale."

If looking at the hobby as a whole, not vintage, I'd suggest that MOST cards are coming down in price and the overall market is SUBSTANTIALLY cooling off of 2021's record year.

Pretty much everyone interviewed in the story has a vested interest to maintain that the market is healthy despite the recent downturn.

ya weirdly written stating over and over the market is healthy...yet noting numerous areas where prices have come down. quite verbose as well.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by ajjohnsonsoxfan

Check out today's article in the Athletic about the current state of the card market. Good stuff

Damm. Starting to think I was the only person seeing this. Lots of people told me I was dreaming or crazy.

[glchen]

Personally, I think the Athletic article (Link) is very reasonable in its analysis, and I agree with a lot of it. With the stock market dropping significantly, inflation, recession, etc, it makes sense that the card prices should also drop. However, there are still a lot of folks with plenty of money. The iconic or really rare prewar cards that everyone wants are not going down. (Modern is a different story with too much artificially created supply such as refractor variations.) I remember a few years back saying that I was waiting to buy the E98 Black Swamp Cobb PSA 9 when it hits $3-5K. That was a pipe dream that is never happening. I seriously doubt that the 1921 E121 Ruth in PSA 3 will ever come back to 10K or the 1915 CJ Cobb PSA 4 will similarly come back to $10-15K. Everyone wants these cards for their collection, including me!

Here's my recent Gehrig pickup that I paid out the wazoo for.

[Ricky]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

I would bet the big '52 Mantle at Heritage will help fuel vintage prices. Don't see how the Mantle auction would have a negative affect of nice vintage stuff. I am still having hard time pulling the trigger on similar such cards I used to buy, but now the gap may even widen. My recent motto, "don't sell what you have, just be sure to keep it, 'cause you probably aren't going to replace it."

My motto as well…

[Ricky]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

Richard M always has a nice selection of rare 19th century cards and TIK still comes up with some stuff.

I don’t see a Richard M on the dealer list.