Critical Base Theory

[frankbmd]

Critical Base Theory (CBT) is not found in many sports. Soccer, football, basketball and ice hockey have no bases and hence no basis for Critical Base Theory applications. A brief introduction to the bases is the foundation of Critical Base Theory.

First base - To raise your OBP you must get to first base. Getting to first base has become easier with the four finger rule allowing you to bypass the batter’s box entirely, when being issued an intentional walk. First base is the safest as well. Not only are you safe if you are allowed to stay for a visit, but it is rarely stolen. I say rarely because Germany Schaefer once stole first base starting on second base. Although the first baseman was caught off guard, the maneuver was considered both unproductive and illegal. While on first base you can chat with a coach from your team, although it is unlikely that you will learn anything of value.

Second base - You generally have to hit the ball further or benefit from a throwing error to reach second base safely. However a new rule allows your manager to place you at second base at the beginning of each extra inning. This does not give you credit for a double, but enables your team to win the game with two fly ball outs (formerly considered sacrifice flies). In a scoreless game in the tenth inning in the absence of any previous walks, the opposing pitcher could pitch a “perfect” 9 ⅔ inning game and still receive the loss.

Second base is also the most frequent stolen base. About 75% of the time the thief is not apprehended. The largest second base thief in history is Rickey Henderson. His cache of stolen bases has never been found. Those who are caught stealing are favorably treated by the judges (aka umpires) and are merely required to return to the dugout. If they object to the call and pick up the base and throw it, ejection from the game becomes more likely.

Third base - Fewer ball players spend much time on third base. It is the most infrequently visited base after a ball is hit, but everyone who scores a legal run throughout the course of the game at least must touch it. This begs the question of whether any legal runs can be recorded after third base is stolen. There is no legal precedent for this situation. Fortunately second base is stolen much more frequently than third base.

The third base coach is different from the first base coach, due to a lack of visitors. He thus is required to be conversant in both sign language and pseudo-sign language. This communication is a two way street between the dugout and the batter. Pseudo-sign language is designed to fool the opposing team by rendering signs that are not real signs. Stealing signs of this nature has been a part of baseball forever, although the first sign-stealer remains unknown.

Home plate - Even though it is a plate, it acts as the fourth base necessary to touch before a run is scored. In reality it looks more like a stick drawing of a house that you might see in a kindergarten classroom than either a plate or a base. It is also the target the pitcher uses to throw strikes. The ball must pass over home plate, but not too high or too low to be called a strike by the umpire.

Critical base theory has been part of baseball since its inception. The foundations are introduced at a very young age, even before Little League when the toddlers suit up for tee ball. How many young boys want to grow up to be major leaguers? The answer might surprise you. How many scrawny little boys aspire to become three hundred pound offensive football tackles? Not many. If you happen to be 7 feet tall, everyone assumes that your future is destined to become an NBA All-Star, even if you suffer from profound clumsiness and balance issues. If your child has no interest in ice skating, you can cross ice hockey off your list as well. So the overwhelming majority of young men fall into the class of baseball hero worship. They want to hit like Mickey Mantle, throw like Nolan Ryan or be a spy like Moe Berg.

They become conversant in the terminology: hit and run plays, switch hitters, double steals, sacrifice bunts, etc. They want a base of their own defensively, but with nine players on a side everyone cannot have their own base. The leftovers are relegated to the “out” field and are not part of the “in” crowd in the infield.

In little league the outfielders learn critical skills like watching grass grow, running after batted balls long after they have failed to stop them. Catchers are the backstops, the preventers of passed balls and the guardians of home plate. They are usually also the slowest runner on the team and unaware of the dangers that await like getting hit with a bat, the ball or both, not to mention the opponent charging home to score.

The talented kids are the shortstops and pitchers. If the boy can catch, he becomes a first baseman. Dreams of stardom are fostered by Critical Base Theory. Heroes are based on the base they play. Even the outfielders can become heroes. There is no longer an outfield in Anaheim that has been renamed the Trout Field. Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg has been renamed the Aroz Arena. And the beat goes on, until…………

The dreaded lockout - The billionaire owners cannot agree with the millionaire players on how to cut the pie. Despite the well advertised current lockout, neither side is willing to negotiate unless the lock out arrives. The players have some reasonable requests and the owners do as well, but neither side is willing to give an inch, or a million or whatever. The cancellation of spring training is followed perhaps by a shortened season a mere two years after a Covid season shortened to 60 games. How are these current young superstars expected in this microcosm expected to achieve statistical success worthy of enshrinement in the Hall of Fame? Has the time past for America’s pastime? Hopefully not, Critical Base Theory is as American as apple pie and iPhones. The most hopeful words we will hear in the not too distant future are “Play Ball”. Let the bassist games begin.

The future of baseball card collectors everywhere hangs in the balance.

[FrankWakefield]

Entertaining... if you could crank out similar pieces out once a week you oughta start a podcast.

Maybe the next episode could be about why in baseball you try to never make the first out at third or home.

[BobC]

Hmmmmm, after looking at the first two posts, seems they're having a "frank" discussion.

[butchie_t]

Dude….it is baseball, not a thesis for a doctorate.

Makes my head hurt… but a really nice read regardless.

I can firmly stand behind this being taught in schools.

[tedzan]

Hey Frank and Frank,

Very, very interesting.

"Critical Base Theory" in my Baseball book which I have always been fascinated by since I was a kid is......
"Lead-off batter gets on base (however)....he will score every 3 out of 4 times".

If I recall correctly, I heard this from either Red Barber or Mel Allen during a sportscast of a Yankees game
back in the 1950's.

And, I have "tracked" this while watching BB games throughout all these years, and sure enough it is true.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by butchie_t

Dude….it is baseball, not a thesis for a doctorate.

Makes my head hurt… but a really nice read regardless.

I can firmly stand behind this being taught in schools.

+1 agree

Great Read but can’t they all just play nice in their sandbox and let’s play some ball

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by tedzan

Hey Frank and Frank,

Very, very interesting.

"Critical Base Theory" in my Baseball book which I have always been fascinated by since I was a kid is......
"Lead-off batter gets on base (however)....he will score every 3 out of 4 times".

If I recall correctly, I heard this from either Red Barber or Mel Allen during a sportscast of a Yankees game
back in the 1950's.

And, I have "tracked" this while watching BB games throughout all these years, and sure enough it is true.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

Hmmm …. 38 percent according to multiple different sites I just read?

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Hmmm …. 38 percent according to multiple different sites I just read?

Standard deviation

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Standard deviation

https://community.fangraphs.com/the-leadoff-walk/

[Yoda]

Frank, loved your piece. But it makes me wonder that if under "enhanced interrogation techniques", Rickey might confess where he hid that cache of stolen bases. Justice must be served.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Standard deviation

Standard Deviant.

Brian (am I referring to myself?)

[Deertick]

"but enables your team to win the game with two sacrifice flies fly ball outs."