T-206 Back Rarity Pricing?

[Prof]

Hi everyone, I'm sort of dipping my toe back into cards lately. I've never been a big baseball guy, but I've always been weirdly drawn to old tobacco cards since I saw a T-206 Wagner on a show when I was a kid.

In October, I picked up a rough 1912 C-46 Chick Gandil for an absolute steal as my first official tobacco card due to a mis-listed auction... Only $21! But, an additional $31 for taxes+fees+international shipping+handling. (I'll share pics later.)

Anyway, back to the T-206... I have a couple of questions. I've been doing research, but want some input from a few seasoned collectors.

Question 1: Does anyone know how accurate the back multiplier prices are from this T206 museum page and article on PSA? The PSA article has a 2015 date at the top.

T206 Back Multiplier

PSA Back Rarity



Question 2: So, if I go by that PSA chart... any low grade Uzit PSA 1 common should be worth at least around $1250? A Drum $3,500? And a Lenox $750?

I have my eye on an ungraded Uzit right now that would probably be a PSA 1.5-2, but don't want to overpay.

Question 3: Why are the Drums seemingly more than double the value of Uzit, even though they appear to be similarly rare?

Question 4: I know that PSA brings the best resale value across the hobby, but SGC seems comparable for extreme vintage. Would I be really shortchanging myself by going with SGC? I do like the look of their slabs more, but don't want to screw myself out of 30% if I chose to flip down the line.


Thanks, all. I appreciate any help!

[oldeboo]

My opinions below...

Originally Posted by Prof

Question 1: Does anyone know how accurate the back multiplier prices are from this T206 museum page and article on PSA? The PSA article has a 2015 date at the top.

The back multiplier information is a good starting point. It gives a decent reference point for price in relation to rarity. Any prices from 2015 I wouldn't pay much attention to. Your best bet is to find recent sales. There are many intricacies within T206 that cause cards that are considered commons to fluctuate. There are many collectors aggressively collecting a certain back at any given time. Some people hoard certain players and will pay more and more as examples dry up. Players like Titus get a premium because he had a mustache. There are all kinds of examples like this. Try to find a recent sale(s) of the same player and back combo. If you can't find that, then resort to finding similar players with the same back.

Question 2: So, if I go by that PSA chart... any low grade Uzit PSA 1 common should be worth at least around $1250? A Drum $3,500? And a Lenox $750?

Again, check for recent comps. As an example, here is a PSA 1 Uzit that sold last night.
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...e?itemid=93366

Question 3: Why are the Drums seemingly more than double the value of Uzit, even though they appear to be similarly rare?

The Drums are slightly more rare, I believe. Once you get to the top of rarity in T206 you are talking about large price increases. If there is one or two known examples of something, it's hard to determine any sort of a fixed price or value.

Question 4: I know that PSA brings the best resale value across the hobby, but SGC seems comparable for extreme vintage. Would I be really shortchanging myself by going with SGC? I do like the look of their slabs more, but don't want to screw myself out of 30% if I chose to flip down the line.

As a collector, the card and the quality of the card are of the most importance. If you think the card looks nice for the price, someone down the line will probably agree. That's all I'll really say on that.

[Luke]

The short answer is that you kind of just have to look at a bunch of actual sales to get a hang of pricing. If you try to use someone's rule of thumb it will likely be helpful to get you in the ballpark, but will still be off by a pretty decent percentage. All those numbers you list are outdated at this point and t206museum hasn't been an active site in many years so those multipliers likely aren't too helpful.

Best bet is to scour the ebay sold listings using 130point.com, search for all the backs you're interested on REA, Love of the Game, and Sterling Auctions completed sales, and use google to find specific front/back combos that have sold. Just know that any sale older than a couple years probably needs to be adjusted up for today's market.

Just one of the many great things about collecting t206s is that they change hands all the time, so you can have a get real good sense of the market if you do some research and then continue to monitor realized prices.

[Prof]

Thanks for sharing some information.

I figured the PSA article and T206 museum were a little dated. I mean, the T206 museum looks like it belongs in a museum at this point.

I was searching 130point, but their data only goes back so far. (I'm used to using it for basketball card searches.) I think there were only three Uzits in the last three months, and couldn't really get a vibe for comps there.

I didn't think to check REA, but very cool that one happened to end last night. Can't get more recent than that.


No way I'll ever be a big collector of the set, but I'm definitely going to pick up a few here and there if I can find a nice price.

The whole culture, minutiae, and numerous ways of attacking collecting the set is very interesting to me. I'm surprised there hasn't been a documentary about it.

[Sean]

The chart that you provided is incomplete. There are multiple backs for some brands. Broadleaf comes in a 350 and a 460 back, and there's a big difference in price. Hindu comes in Brown and Red varieties. Lenox comes in Black and (rarely) Brown. And there is the Brown version of the Old Mill Southern back.

[Rhotchkiss]

Prof, the set is called "the monster" for a reason, and, objectively speaking (granted I am biased) it is likely the greatest and most complicated sports-card set extant.

Generally speaking, you can break the backs into several tiers. Here is my take:

Tier 1: Common Backs -- Piedmont and Sweet Caporal (although there are some series and factories in both that are quite difficult).

Tier 2: Less Common Backs: Sovereign, Old Mill, SL OM, Polar Bear (but some old mills are very difficult with certain players/poses and some Sovereigns can likewise be quite difficult)

Tier 3: Rarer Backs -- EPDG, American Beauty, Tolstoi, Brown Hindu

Tier 4: Rare Backs -- Red Hindu, Black Lenox, Carolina Brights, Broadleaf 350, Black Lenox

Tier 5: Super Rare Backs -- Uzit, Broadleaf 460, Drum

Tier 6: Wicked Super Rare Backs - Brown Lenox, Brown Old Mill, Ty Cobb Back

Not every card with every back, and, as mentioned above, some common poses can be very difficult, even in a more common back. Some front/back combos are near impossible and/or the only one known. And sometimes, a rare back is actually fairly common (see Duffy and McGraw Glove at Hip Red Hindu). To complicate things, certain backs has different series and different factories, although the former is much more relevant for your query; Sovereign 460's tend to be tougher than 150-350 (although no portraits) and Broadleaf 460's are much rarer than their older 350-counterpart.

Regarding value, I think its more than just back rarity, but also the rarity of the front/back combo. And, sometimes certain cards and certain backs get hot or cold.

Bottom line, there is a lot to learn and its best to do it organically, rather than rely on a value multiplier. My advice is to buy HOFers and/or rare backs and better and you cant go run in the long run. Have fun!