AL Wild Card Scenarios

[Peter_Spaeth]

How incredible is it that there could be a four way tie?
https://www.mlb.com/news/american-le...kers-explained

[SteveS]

As a Dodger fan, I'm looking at that scenario. In no way do I believe in or advocate throwing games, but if the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, they end up in a tie and a one-game extension of the season in San Francisco to decide the division winner. The loser of that game will host the Wild-Card game. The Dodgers' starting staff isn't in the best shape right now. Seems as though it would be better for them to just go straight to the Wild-Card and not have to play an extra game that wouldn't provide that great a benefit if they win, and puts a big strain on the pitching staff either way.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SteveS

As a Dodger fan, I'm looking at that scenario. In no way do I believe in or advocate throwing games, but if the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, they end up in a tie and a one-game extension of the season in San Francisco to decide the division winner. The loser of that game will host the Wild-Card game. The Dodgers' starting staff isn't in the best shape right now. Seems as though it would be better for them to just go straight to the Wild-Card and not have to play an extra game that wouldn't provide that great a benefit if they win, and puts a big strain on the pitching staff either way.

At least you aren't looking at having to pitch Kershaw with the season on the line.

[irv]

Go JAYS!

[bxb]

Regarding the AL, although it is fun to imagine the different wild card scenarios, it is likely irrelevant, as whoever emerges will likely be trounced by Tampa in the first round.

[Jcosta19]

I think the most overlooked part of all this craziness is that the AL East already has four 90 win teams, despite having to play each other.
Only time in divisional era that has ever happened was 1978 AL East (which had 7 teams) and a heck of a play in game.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by bxb

Regarding the AL, although it is fun to imagine the different wild card scenarios, it is likely irrelevant, as whoever emerges will likely be trounced by Tampa in the first round.

Deuces wild indeed with a four way playoff.

Arozarena can't wait for his post-season grand slam.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Jcosta19

I think the most overlooked part of all this craziness is that the AL East already has four 90 win teams, despite having to play each other.
Only time in divisional era that has ever happened was 1978 AL East (which had 7 teams) and a heck of a play in game.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

The Orioles helped out a lot.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If my math is correct, with 4 games today, that means there are 16 possible combinations of winners. What's above my head without going through all 16 is how many of those combinations result in 2, 3, and 4 team ties.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If my math is correct, with 4 games today, that means there are 16 possible combinations of winners. What's above my head without going through all 16 is how many of those combinations result in 2, 3, and 4 team ties.

Wait 12 hours Peter and you will not have to figure anything.

Twelve is a smaller number than 16, so you should be able to handle it.

I'd give you the answer you want, but I'm busy prepping for the Packer game.

By the way Kershaw finished with 10 wins, so he is an elite starting pitcher.

[nineunder71]

Your math is not correct

1 game can only have 2 different outcomes, hence 4 games can only have 8 different outcomes?

Only 1 scenario can have a four team playoff: Both Boston & NY would have to lose, and both Seattle & Toronto would have to win

The only way a 3 team playoff can occur is if again both Seattle & Toronto win, and either Boston or NY lose

Go Mariners !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’ve been following this Cinderella all season

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If my math is correct, with 4 games today, that means there are 16 possible combinations of winners. What's above my head without going through all 16 is how many of those combinations result in 2, 3, and 4 team ties.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by nineunder71

Your math is not correct

1 game can only have 2 different outcomes, hence 4 games can only have 8 different outcomes?

Only 1 scenario can have a four team playoff: Both Boston & NY would have to lose, and both Seattle & Toronto would have to win

The only way a 3 team playoff can occur is if again both Seattle & Toronto win, and either Boston or NY lose

Go FISH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’ve been following this Cinderella all season

There is also more than one possibility for a 2 team playoff for the second wild card.

And if NY and BOS both lose and TOR and SEA both win, there is a 1/16 chance of a four team playoff.

[Piratedogcardshows]

That's why baseball is the best sport. So intriguing on so many levels.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by nineunder71

Your math is not correct

1 game can only have 2 different outcomes, hence 4 games can only have 8 different outcomes?

Only 1 scenario can have a four team playoff: Both Boston & NY would have to lose, and both Seattle & Toronto would have to win

The only way a 3 team playoff can occur is if again both Seattle & Toronto win, and either Boston or NY lose

Go FISH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’ve been following this Cinderella all season

No, if each game has two possible outcomes, the total number of outcomes is 2 times 2 times 2 times 2. You multiply, not add.

You're also wrong about 3 team playoff scenarios. Suppose Seattle wins and the rest lose. Seattle, Boston, and NY are then tied. Same if only Toronto wins.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If Boston and NY both win, the rest is irrelevant, two team playoff. I think that happens 1 in 4 times. Plus, if all 4 teams lose, two team playoff. 1 in 16 odds of that. So 5 in 16 of a two team Boston NY playoff.

1 in 16 of a 4 way tie.

But now it gets more complicated. Suppose NY OR Boston wins but not both, and both Seattle and Toronto win. All four teams get in, one clear winner and three way tie for the second wild card spot, and you now need TWO play in games just to get to the wild card game LOL.

Or, if NY OR Boston wins but not both, and Seattle OR Toronto wins but not both, you have one clear winner and a two way tie for the second wild card spot.

Or, if NY and Boston both lose, and Seattle OR Toronto wins but not both, you have a three way tie for first.

This is insane.

[nineunder71]

Yes, you are right in the 3 way, I forgot the both lose, one win scenario

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

No, if each game has two possible outcomes, the total number of outcomes is 2 times 2 times 2 times 2. You multiply, not add.

You're also wrong about 3 team playoff scenarios. Suppose Seattle wins and the rest lose. Seattle, Boston, and NY are then tied. Same if only Toronto wins.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by nineunder71

Yes, you are right in the 3 way, I forgot the both lose, one win scenario

Enough to make one's head spin.

[Casey2296]

Giants win today and they break the single season win record for any SF/NY team beating John McGraws 1904 106 win season.

[nineunder71]

This is fun, but I’m getting confused, haha

I’m now counting 17 different combinations that could happen. That doesn’t seem like a logical # to me, but please tell me where I am mis-counting

All could win
All could lose
There are 4 combos were 1 team wins, the other 3 lose
There are 4 combos were 1 team loses, the other 3 win

That’s 10 different combos so far

I’m getting confused trying to add the 2 win 2 lose combos:
I’m counting 7 different ways that could happen as follows:

Tor & Sea Win
Tor & NY Win
Tor & Bos Win
Sea & NY Win
Sea & Bos Win
NY & Bos Win

HAHA, never mind, thats only six,

YES HEAD SPINNING

[frankbmd]

Two other possibilities exist for 2022.

1. Just have the AL East start the season with a four team wild card playoff and go directly into the wild games. Why play 162 games to get into a one game playoff.

or

2. Just have the AL East play their entire schedule as double headers. With a 324 game season the chances of wild card ties would be reduced, not eliminated but less likely.

I don't know how to resolve the inevitable law suit between Seattle and Baltimore though.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Giants win today and they break the single season win record for any SF/NY team beating John McGraws 1904 106 win season.

This is an American League thread, son.

[Peter_Spaeth]

So to recap (I think)

There could be a four way tie for the top wild card spot.
There could be a four team playoff with three teams tied for the second wild card spot, requiring a total of three games to sort out. How awesome would this be.
There could be a three team playoff with two teams tied for the second wild card spot.
There could be a simple wild card game.

[conor912]

Even more wild is that all 4 teams play at 3pm et today. If ever there was a reason for a split tv, today would be it. If MLB was smart they’d broadcast all 4 for free to suck fans into the post season. While a Boston fan, I’d love to see Seattle pull through.

[nineunder71]

Yes, us National Leaguers need to just stay quiet, but on this note:

Go Giants!!!! I’m a Rockies fan and really just hate the Doodies (Dodgers)

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

This is an American League thread, son.

[Peter_Spaeth]

From one of the math geniuses on Blowout.

Probability of any sort of play-in game: 56.25%

Two-way tie for the second WC spots: 25%

Three-way tie for the two WC spots: 12.5%

Three-way tie for the second WC spot: 12.5%

Four way tie for the two WC spots: 6.25%

This gives no consideration to today's matchups.

New York -155
Seattle -180
Boston -210
Toronto -420

[nineunder71]

That totals 113% chance of something happening, I’ll assume he’s right

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

From one of the math geniuses on Blowout.

Probability of any sort of play-in game: 56.25%

Two-way tie for the second WC spots: 25%

Three-way tie for the two WC spots: 12.5%

Three-way tie for the second WC spot: 12.5%

Four way tie for the two WC spots: 6.25%

This gives no consideration to today's matchups.

New York -155
Seattle -180
Boston -210
Toronto -420

[nineunder71]

I’m just gonna stop while I’m behind, never mind

At least I’m having fun, anyone got a participation award

Originally Posted by nineunder71

That totals 113% chance of something happening, I’ll assume he’s right

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

From one of the math geniuses on Blowout.

Probability of any sort of play-in game: 56.25%

Two-way tie for the second WC spots: 25%

Three-way tie for the two WC spots: 12.5%

Three-way tie for the second WC spot: 12.5%

Four way tie for the two WC spots: 6.25%

This gives no consideration to today's matchups.

New York -155
Seattle -180
Boston -210
Toronto -420

I know that 4-team parlays are very tough to hit, but I wouldn't be surprised if they all win today. I just pray that the M's can find a way to sneak in. It's just been soooooooo damn long.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by SteveS

As a Dodger fan, I'm looking at that scenario. In no way do I believe in or advocate throwing games, but if the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, they end up in a tie and a one-game extension of the season in San Francisco to decide the division winner. The loser of that game will host the Wild-Card game. The Dodgers' starting staff isn't in the best shape right now. Seems as though it would be better for them to just go straight to the Wild-Card and not have to play an extra game that wouldn't provide that great a benefit if they win, and puts a big strain on the pitching staff either way.

Ok, I am confused. How is a playoff game to advance to the NLDS and have home field through the playoffs worse than a wild card game against the Cardinals to advance to the NLDS and never getting home field?

[nineunder71]

Clearly, all this excitement has clouded some of our brains

Originally Posted by rats60

Ok, I am confused. How is a playoff game to advance to the NLDS and have home field through the playoffs worse than a wild card game against the Cardinals to advance to the NLDS and never getting home field?

[SteveS]

rats60, the Dodgers' starting staff is a bit shot. Kershaw is out. Urias pitched last night. Buehler may or may not start today. If he does and the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, that leaves Scherzer for the tiebreaker, and he stunk it up in his last two outings. I just don't like the chances in that road game. If I were managing the Dodgers (and I have no idea why they never promoted me from souvenir stand salesman to manager in 1985), I would make today a bullpen game. Still try to win, of course. But if Scherzer has to start the tiebreaker, that would leave Buehler ready for the Wild-Card. Obviously it's better to win the division as you said, but I'm pessimistic about that happening.

[nineunder71]

Your pessimistic thoughts are right on que!

The division win streak will end, and then Arenado, a SoCal boy, will ‘rake’ you guys right on back to Beverly Hills where you can enjoy a beautiful winter retreat….it really is nice there!

U heard it here first!!

Originally Posted by SteveS

rats60, the Dodgers' starting staff is a bit shot. Kershaw is out. Urias pitched last night. Buehler may or may not start today. If he does and the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, that leaves Scherzer for the tiebreaker, and he stunk it up in his last two outings. I just don't like the chances in that road game. If I were managing the Dodgers (and I have no idea why they never promoted me from souvenir stand salesman to manager in 1985), I would make today a bullpen game. Still try to win, of course. But if Scherzer has to start the tiebreaker, that would leave Buehler ready for the Wild-Card. Obviously it's better to win the division as you said, but I'm pessimistic about that happening.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SteveS

rats60, the Dodgers' starting staff is a bit shot. Kershaw is out. Urias pitched last night. Buehler may or may not start today. If he does and the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, that leaves Scherzer for the tiebreaker, and he stunk it up in his last two outings. I just don't like the chances in that road game. If I were managing the Dodgers (and I have no idea why they never promoted me from souvenir stand salesman to manager in 1985), I would make today a bullpen game. Still try to win, of course. But if Scherzer has to start the tiebreaker, that would leave Buehler ready for the Wild-Card. Obviously it's better to win the division as you said, but I'm pessimistic about that happening.

How quickly things change in baseball. A week ago we would have said the Dodger starting rotation was invincible -- imagine, a 20 game winner as arguably only your fourth best pitcher behind two first ballot HOFers and a youngster on his way to superstardom.

[SteveS]

Colton, I agree that the division streak is likely over, but in the postseason the Giants will get a one-way ticket back to the Tenderloin. I'm just happy that after all that money-spending and cockiness, the Padres finished out of the money.

Peter, Urias has been the best pitcher all season. He deserves the Cy Young, but most likely won't get it. If wins don't count anymore, just award the World Series to the team with the lowest ERA or highest WAR and we won't have to worry about any of this playoff math.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SteveS

Colton, I agree that the division streak is likely over, but in the postseason the Giants will get a one-way ticket back to the Tenderloin. I'm just happy that after all that money-spending and cockiness, the Padres finished out of the money.

Peter, Urias has been the best pitcher all season. He deserves the Cy Young, but most likely won't get it. If wins don't count anymore, just award the World Series to the team with the lowest ERA or highest WAR and we won't have to worry about any of this playoff math.

Isn't Urias allowing half a run per game more than Buehler and Scherzer? IMO that matters more than wins which depend on externalities.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

This is an American League thread, son.

Ha! That’s the league with the batter that doesn’t play a position, correct?

[SteveS]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Isn't Urias allowing half a run per game more than Buehler and Scherzer? IMO that matters more than wins which depend on externalities.

He won the most games, which is what matters most. As I said, they don't award the World Series to the team with the lowest ERA.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Ha! That’s the league with the batter that doesn’t play a position, correct?

Exactly. The league where one batter in nine isn't essentially an automatic out.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SteveS

He's also winning more games, which is what matters most.

We disagree then on the importance of wins as a statistic for an individual pitcher. Suppose Scherzer loses a 1-0 game and Urias wins a 5-3 game. Would you really say Urias was better? Not I.

[egri]

While the Red Sox have already surpassed my expectations for them this season, if they do get in, it will be a short October for them. The pitching isn't deep enough, and their defense isn't doing them any favors.

[nineunder71]

Yes, Urias was your stud last year in the playoffs, along with May. However, Urias will not be this year’s Cy Young winner, as u stated, and for good reason, there are better options

I’m also happy that the Friars are out in this manner!

However, WINS do matter, as these giants have shown all year, no need to go to WAR & ERA, just win the games if you are the better team, which They have been!

Originally Posted by SteveS

Colton, I agree that the division streak is likely over, but in the postseason the Giants will get a one-way ticket back to the Tenderloin. I'm just happy that after all that money-spending and cockiness, the Padres finished out of the money.

Peter, Urias has been the best pitcher all season. He deserves the Cy Young, but most likely won't get it. If wins don't count anymore, just award the World Series to the team with the lowest ERA or highest WAR and we won't have to worry about any of this playoff math.

[mrreality68]

Let the Race begin

All Teams are out of the starting gate

Let’s see where we end up in a few hours

[bmattioli]

Between Football and the Redsox I have 4 games on watching this all unfold.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by egri

While the Red Sox have already surpassed my expectations for them this season, if they do get in, it will be a short October for them. The pitching isn't deep enough, and their defense isn't doing them any favors.

I agree with your reasoning but I have not lost hope, short series, a few guys get hot and a few opponents get cold, and presto.

[egri]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I agree with your reasoning but I have not lost hope, short series, a few guys get hot and a few opponents get cold, and presto.

Peter, I hope you're right.

[nineunder71]

Again, Go Fish!!

Originally Posted by egri

Peter, I hope you're right.

[rugbymarine]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Giants win today and they break the single season win record for any SF/NY team beating John McGraws 1904 106 win season.

Every thread needs a card, right?

[SteveS]

Quick story about my experience in a season finale. I played for Venice High School. In the last regular-season game of my senior year, we needed to beat Palisades to get into the playoffs. We were losing by three going into the bottom of the seventh (the games were seven Innings). We loaded the bases, and Pali brought their third baseman to the mound to relieve. First batter he faced hit a walk-off grand slam for the win and postseason berth. Who was that Pali player who served it up? Some guy named Steve Kerr. Wonder whatever became of him.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Exactly. The league where one batter in nine isn't essentially an automatic out.

Giants pitcher Logan Webb just hit a two run shot to increase their lead 9-1.

[JollyElm]

chevychasenomath.jpg

“It was my understanding that there would be no math.”