So do you think Kershaw retires?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Left the game in the 2nd inning after a recurrence of the "forearm discomfort" which is usually a euphemism for "Tommy John surgery is in your immediate future" they tried the rest cure and in 4 games since coming back he had two strong outings and two dumpster fires.

At 33 now he'd miss all of next season. As much as I love him does it really make sense to try a comeback at 35?

If he does retire where does he rank on your list of all time greats? How much does the injury bug of the last 5 or 6 seasons hurt your ranking of him? Even though he did rack up Cy Young votes in most of those seasons!

[G1911]

I'd rank him lower than most; but mostly because he has pitched so few innings. Less than 2,500 if he retires today. I'm fine with pitchers pitching less innings per game than they used too, but this mentality is not seeming to extend careers very much, if at all. Pitchers are pitching far less total innings before they are done; it's hard to put a guy with 2,451 innings alongside the greats who clocked far, far more. I'd put him just a notch below Pedro, way ahead of Koufax, but significantly below the greats who produced for many, many more total innings.

On the other hand, he has no real decline to knock him for. He has a 137 ERA+ in his last four seasons, which are his "decline" years. That's absurd, he's still very, very good and producing major value, he's just not the ERA leader every single year now. So far he has aged very well, from a rate stat point of view even as the injuries cut his work load further.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Left the game in the 2nd inning after a recurrence of the "forearm discomfort" which is usually a euphemism for "Tommy John surgery is in your immediate future" they tried the rest cure and in 4 games since coming back he had two strong outings and two dumpster fires.

At 33 now he'd miss all of next season. As much as I love him does it really make sense to try a comeback at 35?

If he does retire where does he rank on your list of all time greats? How much does the injury bug of the last 5 or 6 seasons hurt your ranking of him? Even though he did rack up Cy Young votes in most of those seasons!

I think he gets the surgery (assuming it's Tommy John) and see's how his recovery goes before making a decision on the future of his career. In terms of how'd I rank him? Probably somewhere in the Schilling/Glavine/Mussina range. I think at his peak he was a force to be reckoned with, much like Pedro Martinez, but he's clearly on the decline and he won't pitch to see the back end of his thirties.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Seven

I think he gets the surgery (assuming it's Tommy John) and see's how his recovery goes before making a decision on the future of his career. In terms of how'd I rank him? Probably somewhere in the Schilling/Glavine/Mussina range. I think at his peak he was a force to be reckoned with, much like Pedro Martinez, but he's clearly on the decline and he won't pitch to see the back end of his thirties.

I dunno I like the Pedro comparison more, Nothing against the other three you mentioned, but none of them were the consensus greatest pitcher in the game for several years. I guess I'm not as hung up on longevity. You can't be a one year wonder or even a couple year fluke, but he's only had one season since 2011 that he didn't finish top 10 in Cy Young voting. That's pretty damn sustained excellence in my book. you can't find many pitchers who got Cy young votes in 9 different seasons, let alone over a 10 year span!

Schilling received Cy Young votes 4x
Glavine 6x
Mussina 9x over 17 years and only once higher than 4th

Even Pedro only received votes 7x, though like Kershaw he won 3x (though Kershaw was robbed the year they gave it to Dickey.)

Even this year he had three disaster starts and his FIP is under 3.00 for the first time in several years, so his 3.55 ERA is a little unlucky. His K rate was back up over 10 even though his velocity was topping out at 91-92 and he wasn't walking anyone as usual. Hey I'm a Dodger homer, I get it, but I just don't think you are giving his body of work the credit it deserves.

I have Pedro in my top 5 all time and to me he and Kershaw are a very apt comparison with incredibly similar career numbers.

Oh and Kershaw is the Live Ball era Career leader in ERA among starters. WAY ahead of Whitey Ford in 2nd. In an era of rampant scoring he's the greatest at not allowing runs to score. Isn't that a pitcher's job? Or if he's just supposed to keep guys off the bases? He's the greatest live ball era starter in WHIP also.

[Peter_Spaeth]

To me he will always be the man who got shelled in the post season, inexplicably, time after time after time.

On his regular season record, you have to rank him pretty high, 15-20 ish I would think, not top 10.

[Mike D.]

If he retired today, Kershaw would be #31 all time in WAR for a starting pitcher.

Of those ahead of him, only Clemens (for obvious reasons), 19th Century pitcher Jim McCormick, and likely future inductees Curt Schilling and Zack Greinke are not in the Hall.

If he needs to go under the knife, though, I think he does it...with a new elbow he could pitch 2-3 more seasons and move himself into some really interesting comp conversations.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

To me he will always be the man who got shelled in the post season, inexplicably, time after time after time.

On his regular season record, you have to rank him pretty high, 15-20 ish I would think, not top 10.

A timely injury and the Dodgers are probably happy with an improved chance of winning the World Series.

[egri]

I think he'll get the surgery and come back as a reliever. He's not the force he used to be, but he still has enough left in the tank.

[packs]

HOFer for sure but a very low tier one in my opinion. Even Tim Hudson has 200 wins.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

HOFer for sure but a very low tier one in my opinion. Even Tim Hudson has 200 wins.

3 Cy Youngs and 2 second places. 2.49 career ERA. Dominant for a decade. Very low tier? No. Way.

[packs]

How do you view Greinke?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

How do you view Greinke?

Definite HOF, a tier or two below Kershaw, I would have to think about ranking him but maybe somewhere in the 30s or could slip to the 40s because his ERA while solid isn't in elite range.

[packs]

I don't know. Pitchers aren't as glamorous as hitters and to truly be an elite A-level HOFer I think you have to be a guy like Pedro or Randy Johnson and if you're not, there's not a lot that separates you from everybody else.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't know. Pitchers aren't as glamorous as hitters and to truly be an elite A-level HOFer I think you have to be a guy like Pedro or Randy Johnson and if you're not, there's not a lot that separates you from everybody else.

Look at Kerhsaw's record. He had a run of 7 or so dominant years, not sure why you feel he isn't in at least the Pedro category. Big asterisk of course postseason but I'm leaving that out of the equation.

A full point of ERA separates him from Greinke.

[packs]

Randy won 4 CY in a row and struck out almost 5,000 batters. Pedro has 3,000 K's, which is akin to 3,000 hits. Kershaw has no milestone.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Randy won 4 CY in a row and struck out almost 5,000 batters. Pedro has 3,000 K's, which is akin to 3,000 hits. Kershaw has no milestone.

Johnson clearly was better, but Johnson in my mind is a top 10 pitcher if not higher, never got the appreciation he deserved vis a vis Maddux and Clemens.

Pedro's great run is remarkably close to Kershaw's if you compare. And both won 3 Cys with 2 seconds during their runs.

[D. Bergin]

Not like Pedro was a dominant force in the Playoffs either.

One Red Sox manager once got fired for leaving Pedro in a game for too long. Which kind of boggled my mind at the time, considering Pedro was supposed to be the best pitcher on the planet.

Both have an excellent lifetime WHIP in the Playoffs, suggesting they tended to be the victim of some bad luck on batted balls, and neither were the horse to close out games that they started. At least not by the time that time of the year rolled around.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Not like Pedro was a dominant force in the Playoffs either.

One Red Sox manager once got fired for leaving Pedro in a game for too long. Which kind of boggled my mind at the time, considering Pedro was supposed to be the best pitcher on the planet.

Both have an excellent lifetime WHIP in the Playoffs, suggesting they tended to be the victim of some bad luck on batted balls, and neither were the horse to close out games that they started. At least not by the time that time of the year rolled around.

Clayton tended to be good for most of the games he pitched, which is probably why his WHIP isn't all that bad, but he just got shelled in big innings time after time which is why his ERA is just miserable.

The 2003 playoff game was terrible managing, Pedro had nothing left and everyone knew it except Pedro and Grady Little. Pedro intimidated him into leaving him in. Francona would have ignored him.

[packs]

It's not that I think Kershaw wasn't as good as he was, I just don't put him in the same conversation as the elite guys. He didn't pitch enough to be one.

I don't say this to take anything away from Kershaw but I see him in the same class as Johan Santana, who I think was well on his way to being a HOFer too. But he pitched even less than Kershaw did. Although in that time Santana did win 2 CY and also won a Triple Crown. Kershaw was clearly better but the accolades aren't too far away from each other.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

It's not that I think Kershaw wasn't as good as he was, I just don't put him in the same conversation as the elite guys. He didn't pitch enough to be one.

I don't say this to take anything away from Kershaw but I see him in the same class as Johan Santana, who I think was well on his way to being a HOFer too. But he pitched even less than Kershaw did. Although in that time Santana did win 2 CY and also won a Triple Crown. Kershaw was clearly better but the accolades aren't too far away from each other.

Where do you rate Koufax?

[packs]

Pretty high talent wise but not as high career wise. I wouldn’t say he was an elite HOFer either. Elite talent for sure.

[soxinseven]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Clayton tended to be good for most of the games he pitched, which is probably why his WHIP isn't all that bad, but he just got shelled in big innings time after time which is why his ERA is just miserable.

The 2003 playoff game was terrible managing, Pedro had nothing left and everyone knew it except Pedro and Grady Little. Pedro intimidated him into leaving him in. Francona would have ignored him.

Although I think we should have gone to the bullpen, saying he had nothing left in the tank isn't exactly true. Pedro's last pitch was 95 mph and broke Posada's bat. The ball landed about 35 feet on the outfield grass.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by packs

How do you view Greinke?

Google his name. Lots of pictures will come up. (I couldn't resist.)

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by soxinseven

Although I think we should have gone to the bullpen, saying he had nothing left in the tank isn't exactly true. Pedro's last pitch was 95 mph and broke Posada's bat. The ball landed about 35 feet on the outfield grass.

He had given up three straight hits, no?

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He had given up three straight hits, no?

I remember yelling at my TV when he even came out for that inning. If I recall correctly, he gave up some VERY loud outs the inning before.

What a Hall of Fame starting pitcher is will evolve with the game. I actually think Santana will get in some day via one of the era committees, when people figure out that another 300 game winner is going to be a long wait.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mike D.

I remember yelling at my TV when he even came out for that inning. If I recall correctly, he gave up some VERY loud outs the inning before.

What a Hall of Fame starting pitcher is will evolve with the game. I actually think Santana will get in some day via one of the era committees, when people figure out that another 300 game winner is going to be a long wait.

The prior inning he had walked off the mound and made his characteristic gesture to the sky, thinking he was done for the night.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Right up there with Babe Ruth, Bucky Dent, and Bill Buckner.

[soxinseven]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He had given up three straight hits, no?

Absolutely. No need to build a case here Pete. I feel they should have turned it over to the bullpen. That being said, doesn’t change the fact that a broken bat flare tied the game.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by soxinseven

Absolutely. No need to build a case here Pete. I feel they should have turned it over to the bullpen. That being said, doesn’t change the fact that a broken bat flare tied the game.

True that. It was the Curse.

[Mike D.]

Can we go back to talking about Kershaw? This conversation is spooking me a few hours before Yanks/Sox wildcard game.