Comparison of perceived scarcity/value of E90-1 cards - Now vs. 1982

[brianp-beme]

I dragged out my 1982 copy of The Sport Americana Baseball Price Guide (4th Edition) the other day, and for fun I checked what were the listed prices for cards in the E90-1 American Caramel set, as that is a set that has had a fair amount of reevaluation of scarcities in the past few years. The prices in the 'Mint' column (in my opinion a wholly fictional category for this set before the proliferation of Card MD's) for a common was $6.50, with a top of $200 for the well-publicized, even back then, scarce card of Mike Mitchell.

I decided it would be interesting to compare the current E90-1 Kraken list (here is a link to the thread):

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=247839

to the prices in this 1982 guide to see how the perceived scarcities/values of the cards in this set have changed over the years. The Kraken list I have pasted below was derived by my perception of the relative scarcity/value of the cards, with the input of many N54 members as well. For simplicity sake I decided to not get too crazy with the point system...there are quite a few cards currently in the '1' category that are less common/more popular than their friends, and probably could have been classified as being '2' in value, but hey, what can you say.

I have left the Kraken values of each listed card on the left, and have added the mint price listed in the guide on the right. To the end of the list I have added cards that were given higher than $6.50 values in the book, but only rated a '1' on the Kraken scale.

I think you will find the differences in perceived scarcity/valuation interesting. Enjoy, and discuss if you must!


20 Joe Jackson $40

10 Tris Speaker $75
10 Honus Wagner (throwing) $40

7 Hugh Duffy $75
7 Mike Mitchell $200
7 Honus Wagner (batting) $40
7 Cy Young (Cleveland) $25

5 Fred Clarke (Pittsburgh) $40
5 Ty Cobb $75
5 Willie Keeler (portrait - red) $25
5 Jake Stahl $40
5 Bill Sweeney (Boston) $135
5 Ed Walsh $75

4 Peaches Graham $75
4 Christy Mathewson $40
4 Eddie Plank $18
4 Cy Young (Boston) $18

3 Bob Bescher $6.50
3 Patsy Dougherty $6.50
3 George Gibson (back view) $25
3 Harry Howell (wind up) $12
3 Ed Karger $25
3 Willie Keeler (throwing) $40
3 Addie Joss (throwing) $40
3 Nap Lajoie $25
3 Tommy Leach (throwing) $7.50
3 Hans Lobert $18
3 Larry McLean $18
3 Dots Miller (sunset) -variation not in guide book
3 Orval Overall $18
3 Dave Shean $12
3 George Stone (left hand showing) $7.50
3 Jerry Upp $12

1 each for the rest of the 88 cards, including the below with more than the $6.50 common pricing in the 1982 guide. On the left I have indicated either their current Kraken value ('1'), or a value of '2' for those I think could have been originally listed as such:

2 Frank Baker $12
1 Chief Bender $12
1 Kitty Bransfield (blue background) $9
1 Kitty Bransfield (pink background) $12
1 Roger Bresnahan $12
2 Mordecai Brown $25
1 John Butler $9
1 Frank Chance $18
1 Hal Chase $7.50
1 Fred Clarke (Philadelphia)
2 Wally Clement $12
2 Eddie Collins $12
2 Sam Crawford $12
2 Ray Demmitt $12
1 Art Fromme $12
1 George Gibson (front view) $7.50
1 Roy Hartzell (green background) $7.50
1 Roy Hartzell (pink background) $7.50
1 Harry Howell (follow through) $7.50
1 Hugh Jennings $12
2 Addie Joss (portrait) $18
2 Willie Keeler (portrait - pink) $18
1 John Knight $18
1 Tommy Leach (batting) $7.50
1 Rube Marquard $12
1 Stuffy McInnes $7.50
1 Vic Schlitzer $18
2 Johhny Seigle $18
2 Jimmy Sheckard $12
1 George Stone (no hands) $7.50
1 Jesse Tannehill (Chicago NL) $7.50
1 Lee Tannehill (Chicago AL) $7.50
1 Ira Thomas (Philadelphia) $7.50
1 Roy Thomas (Boston) $7.50
1 Joe Tinker $12
1 Bobby Wallace $12
1 Hooks Wiltse $18

And finally cards listed in 1982 as $6.50 commons, and on the Kraken as '1' point, but probably deserve to be '2':

2 Harry Bemis $6.50
2 George Davis $6.50 (not a HOF in 1982)
2 Paddy O'Connor $6.50
2 Vic Willis $6.50 (not a HOF in 1982)


Brian

[brianp-beme]

Even the fact that Joe Jackson and Honus Wagner in 1982 were considered to be in the 4th level of pricing in this set is not enough to make people comment?

Brian (a grumpy vintage bb card collector whose shame blame game just went down in flames)

[judsonhamlin]

Missed this thread the other day. Some of the surprises are the relative prices of both Youngs as compared to other HOF players and the fact that Knight is listed at 3x the other commons. Relatively speaking, Lobert, McLean, Shean and Upp have increased greatly in relative value, while Duffy seems to have leveled out. Thanks for sharing.

[ullmandds]

You put lipstick on a pig...and it's still a joe jax e90-1!

[rats60]

I didn’t collect prewar until 1984 so I can’t comment specifically on those prices in 1982. However, by 1984 dealers didn’t necessarily respect Beckett pricing on scarce cards. They weren’t likely to under sell cards like those. I find it hard to believe that dealers were actually selling Wagner and Jackson for less than Speaker. Those prices may have come from surveys and not actual sales.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

You put lipstick on a pig...and it's still a joe jax e90-1!

That's a 6 figure lipsticked pig to you!

Brian

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by rats60

I didn’t collect prewar until 1984 so I can’t comment specifically on those prices in 1982. However, by 1984 dealers didn’t necessarily respect Beckett pricing on scarce cards. They weren’t likely to under sell cards like those. I find it hard to believe that dealers were actually selling Wagner and Jackson for less than Speaker. Those prices may have come from surveys and not actual sales.

I agree concerning the guide's accuracy of pricing at the time...quite often it seemed askew to me, even back then. But overall I think it was a decent snapshot of the collective mindset at the time, and I imagine you could have easily gotten a Joe for Ty pricing back then.

Brian

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by judsonhamlin

Missed this thread the other day. Some of the surprises are the relative prices of both Youngs as compared to other HOF players and the fact that Knight is listed at 3x the other commons. Relatively speaking, Lobert, McLean, Shean and Upp have increased greatly in relative value, while Duffy seems to have leveled out. Thanks for sharing.

I agree. The Knight is indeed a cool looking card, but probably mid-tier in regards to scarcity, as are the similarly priced Schlitzer and Wiltse.

Bemis, Bescher, Dougherty, Leach batting, and Stone no hands, all at or near common pricing, would be examples of cards whose scarcity were not recognized at the time...I know I benefited years ago from that fact.

Brian

[rats60]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

I agree concerning the guide's accuracy of pricing at the time...quite often it seemed askew to me, even back then. But overall I think it was a decent snapshot of the collective mindset at the time, and I imagine you could have easily gotten a Joe for Ty pricing back then.

Brian

Agree. No one considered it a rookie card, but his cards were high demand and I always saw them bringing “Cobb” prices.

[tedzan]

The Joe Jax card was considered "ugly" back in the early 1980's and it's price was less than $100, mainly due to lack of demand.
By the late 1980's, after the very popular movies EIGHT MEN OUT and FIELD of DREAMS were in the theatres, this same Joe Jax
card was selling for $500 - $1000.

The relatively hi-value for the 2nd Series Cy Young (Cleveland) card is a joke. The actual image on this card is that of Irv Young.





TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[brianp-beme]

Even though the art depicts Irving, the makers definitely intended this card to represent Cy, because of the Cleveland designation. I agree that the Boston portrait version is way more attractive and appealing (since that is actually Cy pictured), but the Cleveland version is definitely tough to come by, and it is a Young shown pitching for Cleveland. American Caramel snuck one past the kids back then, and adults today are still being fooled into forking out the dough for this one.

Brian

[pkaufman]

The price is based on the rarity of this card, irregardless of the player shown. Even if denoted as a common as Ted suggests, the card is very tough in any grade. In EX and above, almost non-existent.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by pkaufman

The price is based on the rarity of this card, irregardless of the player shown. Even if denoted as a common as Ted suggests, the card is very tough in any grade. In EX and above, almost non-existent.

I agree to a certain extent, but I still think the Cy Young name and HOF status attached to this card probably causes its current pricing to be more than double what it would be if it were universally considered a normal player. Part of the reason I eventually settled on a 7 Kraken status instead of a 5.

Brian