Keuchel & Kimbrel: What's your take?

[clydepepper]

I find it difficult to believe that these two pitchers still haven't not been signed.

While I have no idea what salary they're asking for, there definitely should be someone willing to try.

Keuchel, admittedly, hasn't duplicated his 2015 Cy Young season, made $13.2Million in 2018 and has Scott Boras as his agent...but I still think he could help Boston among others.

The Kimbrel situation is even more puzzling: Boras is NOT his agent and he averaged 13.9K/G last year...also for $13M. Though starting pitching is the Red Sox need right now, don't you think those pitchers would do better knowing that they have a still dependable closer to sew things up?

Both of this players' situations may very well be a product of Tampa Bay's revolutionary approach to their pitching staff.=

[mckinneyj]

Because both were made "qualifying offers" by their prior teams, if they sign with another team prior to this year's June draft, the prior team will be due draft pick compensation from the signing team. Apparently no team is willing to meet both the asking price of these players and also lose a draft pick to do so.

With respect to Kimbrel, if the Sox were to re-sign him they would hit the next level of salary cap overage which would then result in them having their 1st pick in next draft slide down 10 spots lower in the order - this combined with Kimbrel's asking price has kept them from re-signing. There's also that Kimbrel has not performed particularly well in the post season (recall that the Sox used their starters in relief and left Kimbrell on the bench at the end of last year's series) and seems (IMO) to be in general decline (still very good but not what he used to be and maybe risky to sign long term).

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mckinneyj

Because both were made "qualifying offers" by their prior teams, if they sign with another team prior to this year's June draft, the prior team will be due draft pick compensation from the signing team. Apparently no team is willing to meet both the asking price of these players and also lose a draft pick to do so.

With respect to Kimbrel, if the Sox were to re-sign him they would hit the next level of salary cap overage which would then result in them having their 1st pick in next draft slide down 10 spots lower in the order - this combined with Kimbrel's asking price has kept them from re-signing. There's also that Kimbrel has not performed particularly well in the post season (recall that the Sox used their starters in relief and left Kimbrell on the bench at the end of last year's series) and seems (IMO) to be in general decline (still very good but not what he used to be and maybe risky to sign long term).

I can't stand that quirky delivery of his, and when he's struggling as he surely did in the post-season last year, it's all the more annoying. I don't know if those few games really tell us much about the state of his career, but I have a feeling that career is not going to continue in Boston.

[KCRfan1]

Originally Posted by mckinneyj

Because both were made "qualifying offers" by their prior teams, if they sign with another team prior to this year's June draft, the prior team will be due draft pick compensation from the signing team. Apparently no team is willing to meet both the asking price of these players and also lose a draft pick to do so.

With respect to Kimbrel, if the Sox were to re-sign him they would hit the next level of salary cap overage which would then result in them having their 1st pick in next draft slide down 10 spots lower in the order - this combined with Kimbrel's asking price has kept them from re-signing. There's also that Kimbrel has not performed particularly well in the post season (recall that the Sox used their starters in relief and left Kimbrell on the bench at the end of last year's series) and seems (IMO) to be in general decline (still very good but not what he used to be and maybe risky to sign long term).

+1

Couple that with both players outrageous asking price and contract lengths at the beginning of FA I'm not surprised either player remains unsigned. Keep in mind, neither player was in a hurry to sign and were content to stick to what they felt they were " worth ". EVEN if a team decided to sign one of these players the player would not be immediate help to the team. The player would need to see game action in the minors before joining the MLB team. That's probably another 2 weeks lost.

[packs]

I"m not surprised about Keuchel. He's over 30 now and was very hittable last season. He even gave up more hits than innings pitched. I wouldn't be interested in signing for more than a few million dollars. If he wanted to get paid, he should have accepted the qualifying offer and had a bounce back year. Why he thought he would have earned a multi-year deal after his performance last season is more puzzling than anything.

Kimbrel is on the wrong side of 30 too. Closers typically have a short shelf life. Very few are elite for more than a decade and Kimbrel is entering his 10th season. He still wants elite closer money but he's no longer likely to be an elite closer.

Both of these players suffer from being too complacent in their careers. They should have accepted the qualifying offers and proved their mediocre (post/regular) seasons were aberrations instead of a window into the future that people assume they were.

[chaddurbin]

I think if they are signed after may 1st the compensatory pick goes away. Of course if they stick to their guns of wanting 4+ years deals they will remain unsigned. This is not the mid 2000s where you suddenly get better after you turn 30.

[Yastrzemski Sports]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I can't stand that quirky delivery of his, and when he's struggling as he surely did in the post-season last year, it's all the more annoying. I don't know if those few games really tell us much about the state of his career, but I have a feeling that career is not going to continue in Boston.

I agree 100%. He should have ditched that gimmick. No one cares. It reminded me of Nomar in the 2003 playoffs against the Yankees. He would waste tons of time messing with those gloves to miss the ball.

[packs]

I think it's equally unlikely Kimbrel signs with the Braves. They've already laid out money for Acuna, Albies and spent 23 mil on Donaldson. I'd be shocked if they spent anything else.

[Chicosbailbonds]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

I think if they are signed after may 1st the compensatory pick goes away. Of course if they stick to their guns of wanting 4+ years deals they will remain unsigned. This is not the mid 2000s where you suddenly get better after you turn 30.

The pick goes away on the day of the baseball draft.

[midmo]

Originally Posted by clydepepper

I find it difficult to believe that these two pitchers still haven't not been signed.=

It's been tough on Derek. He drafted both in our fantasy league.

[Yastrzemski Sports]

This is all part of the changing business of baseball. The way of the future is extensions for players when they are young into their free agency years like Trout, DeGrom, Bogaerts, etc. For me, I think this is wonderful that players are more likely to stay with a team for most of their careers.

Free agency has not gone well for players in the past couple of seasons. Harper and Machado got their money but they are elite players and got very lucky that they found a team with more money than brains. But it didn’t seem that many teams were lining up for these guys. More players ended up like Keuchel and Kimbrel where they either took a small short term deal or ended up unemployed. Baseball has marched forward just fine without them.

Part of the problem is that both of these guys were looking for $100m plus. They probably could have signed a deal if they were more reasonable. Both are over 30. Last season both of their ERA went up over a point. Keuchel was a .500 pitcher. Kimbrel fell apart in the post season. These players (and their agents) have overvalued themselves. If you want to work, sign a deal and work. It reminds me of the Andre Dawson story. He was almost out of baseball. He went to the Cubs and begged them saying he would sign for any amount they were willing to pay handing them a blank contract. He won an mvp and went on to the Hall of Fame. Take a lesson in humility from a legend.