T206 cards poised for largest 2 yr. percentage price increase.

[iwantitiwinit]

Since we have commented a bit over the past 2 weeks on future t206 price increases how about listing 5 t206's you expect to have the largest percentage price increase using a 2 year time horizon.

Here are mine:

1. Plank
2. Johnson portrait
3. Lajoie portrait
4. Mathewson portrait
5. Tinker portrait

Bonus pick: Magee Portrait (as always)

[ruth_rookie]

I have a feeling most selections will be cards that folks already own, sort of a way of justifying previous (or upcoming) purchases. In the trading world we call it “talking your book”. So maybe we should include an “own” or “don’t own” designation? And I’m also gonna leave the big four off of my list, since they’re traded so infrequently that one aggressive buyer can skew the data with one outrageous purchase.

Regardless, here are mine in no particular order:

Cobb bat on (own)
Wajo portrait (don’t own)
Matty portrait (own)
Lajoie portrait (don’t own)
Cobb bat off (own)

[jasonc]

Nice thread, Robert.

Just my opinions:

1. Plank
2. Johnson (Portrait)
3. Young (Portrait)
4. Cobb (Bat Off)
5. Demmitt/O'Hara

[Gradedcardman]

Originally Posted by ruth_rookie

I have a feeling most selections will be cards that folks already own, sort of a way of justifying previous (or upcoming) purchases. In the trading world we call it “talking your book”. So maybe we should include an “own” or “don’t own” designation? And I’m also gonna leave the big four off of my list, since they’re traded so infrequently that one aggressive buyer can skew the data with one outrageous purchase.

Regardless, here are mine in no particular order:

Cobb bat on (own)
Wajo portrait (don’t own)
Matty portrait (own)
Lajoie portrait (don’t own)
Cobb bat off (own)

I would bet that is why most post anyway !!

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by ruth_rookie

I have a feeling most selections will be cards that folks already own, sort of a way of justifying previous (or upcoming) purchases. In the trading world we call it “talking your book”.

This just became my favorite new phrase, thanks for the knowledge.

I think this is half the discussion on prices and "future growth". Ever notice how a low sales point is always an anomaly, however a new crazy high oddball brings only the question "is this the new normal?"

[Sean]

Originally Posted by iwantitiwinit

Since we have commented a bit over the past 2 weeks on future t206 price increases how about listing 5 t206's you expect to have the largest percentage price increase using a 2 year time horizon.

Here are mine:

1. Plank
2. Johnson portrait
3. Lajoie portrait
4. Mathewson portrait
5. Tinker portrait

Bonus pick: Magee Portrait (as always)

Here are mine:

1. Plank
2. Cobb bat on shoulder
3. Johnson portrait
4. Young portrait
5. Evers blue sky

PS- I own one of each

And Robert, did you mean Magie?

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by ruth_rookie

I have a feeling most selections will be cards that folks already own, sort of a way of justifying previous (or upcoming) purchases. In the trading world we call it “talking your book”. So maybe we should include an “own” or “don’t own” designation? And I’m also gonna leave the big four off of my list, since they’re traded so infrequently that one aggressive buyer can skew the data with one outrageous purchase.

Regardless, here are mine in no particular order:

Cobb bat on (own)
Wajo portrait (don’t own)
Matty portrait (own)
Lajoie portrait (don’t own)
Cobb bat off (own)

I appreciate you making that distinction, and I like the phrase “talking your book.” I’ve always thought about it as “pumping a card.” Maybe I’m just skeptical, but it feels like there are many examples of dudes going to great lengths to bring exposure to a card “organically” when, coincidentally, one happens to be up for auction. I don’t think this thread is an example of that at all, but there are others on the main board, I believe.

Also, I agree with this list, but I might replace Nap with Cy portrait.

[rats60]

Wagner
Plank
Cobb Green
Johnson Portrait
Mathewson Portrait

[frankbmd]

Would anyone have said Titus ten years ago?

I'll go with Puttman.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I appreciate you making that distinction, and I like the phrase “talking your book.” I’ve always thought about it as “pumping a card.” Maybe I’m just skeptical, but it feels like there are many examples of dudes going to great lengths to bring exposure to a card “organically” when, coincidentally, one happens to be up for auction. I don’t think this thread is an example of that at all, but there are others on the main board, I believe.

Also, I agree with this list, but I might replace Nap with Cy portrait.

Better than trashing a card you are secretly hoping to win. The old Hal Lewis playbook.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Would anyone have said Titus ten years ago?

I'll go with Puttman.

Titus recipe for fake hype =

Slowly buy up at least 75 - 100 commons ( mostly graded, between 2-5 grades are fine).
Make a post fanning them out stating you have been investing as you see an upside.
Tell a few other colleagues you have secretly been working to corner the market but finding frustration as "I just can't seem to find many anymore, the supply seems low" (this doesn't need to be true).
Those collectors spread the rumor in boards and in hushed tones about "the accumulator".
Dealers raise prices hoping to bring you in like a sucker, people panic and start buying.
You wait till the hype drifts up during the next couple years.
Slowly sell individual cards at the peak and make a mint from the panic.
Laugh to yourself over how easy that was.

It's all a house of cards...literally.

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by ruth_rookie

I have a feeling most selections will be cards that folks already own, sort of a way of justifying previous (or upcoming) purchases. In the trading world we call it “talking your book”. So maybe we should include an “own” or “don’t own” designation? And I’m also gonna leave the big four off of my list, since they’re traded so infrequently that one aggressive buyer can skew the data with one outrageous purchase.

Regardless, here are mine in no particular order:

Cobb bat on (own)
Wajo portrait (don’t own)
Matty portrait (own)
Lajoie portrait (don’t own)
Cobb bat off (own)

Full disclosure I own all but the Plank but I almost own the entire set so it would be natural I would own many of them. When I cite the Johnson it is a bit self-serving since I have a PSA 5 Sovereign and was pleasantly surprised at the price realized for the PSA 6 just sold by PWCC. I have thought for a long time that the card is underpriced as I felt he was the next card to appreciate significantly given the attractiveness of the card coupled with his achievements. I am also kicking myself for not buying more Johnson's when the opportunity presented itself as well as the Lajoie's which seem to be much more difficult to find as noted by another commenter in another post. I was acutually surprised to see how few Lajoie portraits have come for sale over the past 3 months on ebay.

Lastly, in relation to the Magee, I am speaking about the Magee not the Magie. I have always loved the image and feel that there have to be fewer Magee's around that other cards in the same series for 2 reasons: 1) The Magee replaced the Magie so that replacement would cause there to be a bit fewer Magee's than other cards printed in that entire piedmont series run and 2) counterfeiters have taken Magee's out of circulation in an attempt to alter them leaving a lesser population of existing Magee's.

I have been trying to purchase Magee's whenever possible.

[Throttlesteer]

WaJo port.
Young port.
Matty port.
Speaker
Dahlen Brooklyn (when inducted)

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by Throttlesteer

WaJo port.
Young port.
Matty port.
Speaker
Dahlen Brooklyn (when inducted)

Very good point. If Dahlen gets elected by the Early Baseball Committee in 2020 (as his WAR suggests he might), both Boston and Brooklyn versions will likely take off — especially in higher grade.

[SetBuilder]

I would be very cautious to expect further significant price increases. The global economy has serious cracks in its foundation and US debt levels have never been higher. We're also overdue for a recession. I fear it's going to be very ugly.

[orly57]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

I would be very cautious to expect further significant price increases. The global economy has serious cracks in its foundation and US debt levels have never been higher. We're also overdue for a recession. I fear it's going to be very ugly.

So 1914 Cracker Jacks then?

[SetBuilder]

Originally Posted by orly57

So 1914 Cracker Jacks then?

Time.

If you are new to the hobby and bought cards as speculative vehicles, you may be in for a lot of short term pain should the economy go south.

If you plan on holding the cards for 10+ years, you'll probably be fine.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

I would be very cautious to expect further significant price increases. The global economy has serious cracks in its foundation and US debt levels have never been higher. We're also overdue for a recession. I fear it's going to be very ugly.

I have gotten emails or seen ads nearly every day for the past ten years saying the same thing from some market guru or other. Always the same message about the debt and the Fed and the dollar; always the same predictions of massive drops in stock prices, and so on and so forth. And always backed up by analysis purporting to show it's just around the corner, or already started. Got them at Dow 10,000, and 12,000, and 15,000, and 20,000, etc. etc. They always want to sell you some guide to making money in a crash. Carry on.

Here's one of my faves, Porter Stansberry, predicting 2018 will be the beginning of the end.
http://thecrux.com/a-huge-rally-and-...gger-collapse/

He doesn't tell you he's had the same message since 2009 lol. You would have done real well listening to his crap.

[SetBuilder]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have gotten emails or seen ads nearly every day for the past ten years saying the same thing from some market guru or other. Always the same message about the debt and the dollar; always the same predictions of massive drops in stock prices, and so on and so forth. And always backed up by analysis purporting to show it's just around the corner, or already started. Got them at Dow 10,000, and 12,000, and 15,000, and 20,000, etc. etc. They always want to sell you some guide to making money in a crash. Carry on.

Here's one of my faves, Porter Stansberry, predicting 2018 will be the beginning of the end.
http://thecrux.com/a-huge-rally-and-...gger-collapse/

He doesn't tell you he's had the same message since 2009 lol. You would have done real well listening to his crap.

No one wants to spoil a good party. Every asset I can think of has gone up at least 5-fold since 2010. I remember just a couple of years ago buying Apple shares at $90, and now it's at $215. Over a trillion dollar market cap already. Facebook from $50 a share to over $180 in less than 3 years. Bitcoin. Real Estate. Coins. Cards. Everything.

Some wisdom and a little knowledge of history can be very sobering at times.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

No one wants to spoil a good party. Every asset I can think of has gone up at least 5-fold since 2010. I remember just a couple of years ago buying Apple shares at $90, and now it's at $215. Over a trillion dollar market cap already. Facebook from $50 a share to over $180 in less than 3 years. Bitcoin. Real Estate. Coins. Cards. Everything.

Some wisdom and a little knowledge of history can be very sobering at times.

Bitcoin has come partway back to earth. You're right, but you could have put together a sky is falling scenario in 2010 too. Or any year after that. How many people thought it was insane when AMZN hit 500? How many people were convinced that the market's recovery following early 2009 was just a dead cat bounce? How many people thought Bitcoin made no sense at 1000?

[SetBuilder]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bitcoin has come partway back to earth. You're right, but you could have put together a sky is falling scenario in 2010 too. How many people thought it was insane when AMZN hit 500?

The US is $22 Trillion in debt and running $1T deficits at the tail end of one of the longest economic expansions on record. Cost to service that debt is already $500B+ a year, almost bigger than Medicare and the military. Consumers have more debt today than they did in 2006-7 before the collapse. A lot of it is unsecured debt for things like subprime autos and discretionary items.

Everyone binged on debt while rates were near zero.

Just keep that in mind.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

The US is $22 Trillion in debt and running $1T deficits at the tail end of one of the longest economic expansions on record. Cost to service that debt is already $500B+ a year, almost bigger than Medicare and the military. Consumers have more debt today than they did in 2006-7 before the collapse. A lot of it is unsecured debt for things like subprime autos and discretionary items.

Everyone binged on debt while rates were near zero.

Just keep that in mind.

I read the gloom and doom folks all the time. They always sound persuasive. I'm just saying people who listened to them have missed out on unbelievable growth. I can't believe Stansberry and his ilk have a single paying client left with his track record.

[SetBuilder]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I read the gloom and doom folks all the time. They always sound persuasive. I'm just saying people who listened to them have missed out on unbelievable growth.

That's fine. I've been bullish the last few years. Some people are permanently pessimistic and it can be annoying, I agree. But they may be broken clocks soon. This is the longest period between recessions. Ever.

Can you honestly tell me this expansion is going to continue indefinitely?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

That's fine. I've been bullish the last few years. Some people are permanently pessimistic and it can be annoying, I agree. But they may be broken clocks soon. This is the longest period between recessions. Ever.

Can you honestly tell me this expansion is going to continue indefinitely?

No, corrections are always inevitable, but rule no. 1 has always been don't try to time the market or you'll get burned, no?

[SetBuilder]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

No, corrections are always inevitable, but rule no. 1 has always been don't try to time the market or you'll get burned, no?

Don't try to time the market, but don't buy at the top either. There is a subtle difference between the two.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

Don't try to time the market, but don't buy at the top either. There is a subtle difference between the two.

That's the whole point, you can't tell a top without hindsight. People thought Dow 10K was a top.

[SetBuilder]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

That's the whole point, you can't tell a top without hindsight. People thought Dow 10K was a top.

You can sort of tell. When the price of something goes up 500% in a relatively short period of time it's probably not wise to buy and bet on another 500% rise.

Gravity.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

You can sort of tell. When the price of something goes up 500% in a relatively short period of time it's probably not wise to buy and bet on another 500% rise.

Gravity.

Mebbe. I thought about buying a few shares of AMZN just for fun at 1000. Then I said to myself, this is madness, the numbers make no sense based on its earnings, not even for fun. Not long after that it was at 1300 and I did it just to spite myself. And now it's close to 1900. So you just don't know and crystal balls, IMO, are useless.

[SetBuilder]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Mebbe. I thought about buying a few shares of AMZN just for fun at 1000. Then I said to myself, this is madness, the numbers make no sense based on its earnings, not even for fun. Not long after that it was at 1300 and I did it just to spite myself. And now it's close to 1900. So you just don't know and crystal balls, IMO, are useless.

Amazon is almost a monopoly. If they're not already, they probably will be soon.

You're cherry picking.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

Amazon is almost a monopoly. If they're not already, they probably will be soon.

You're cherry picking.

And wishing I had picked many more cherries. But anyone can buy it, they have the same information I do.

[ruth_rookie]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

Consumers have more debt today than they did in 2006-7 before the collapse. Everyone binged on debt while rates were near zero.

I know I did... on baseball cards!!!

[SetBuilder]

Originally Posted by ruth_rookie

I know I did... on baseball cards!!!

You bought baseball cards on credit?

[Sean]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

You bought baseball cards on credit?

I have, a T206 Plank in 2006, a Merkle/ Brown Lenox in 2004, a Merkle/ Pirate in 2013, and a 1914 CJ Mathewson in 2016.

And they all turned out to be good moves (well, 3 out of 4 anyway).

[Sean]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

No, corrections are always inevitable, but rule no. 1 has always been don't try to time the market or you'll get burned, no?

This is the exact advice that I got from my money manager.

[Sean]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have gotten emails or seen ads nearly every day for the past ten years saying the same thing from some market guru or other. Always the same message about the debt and the Fed and the dollar; always the same predictions of massive drops in stock prices, and so on and so forth. And always backed up by analysis purporting to show it's just around the corner, or already started. Got them at Dow 10,000, and 12,000, and 15,000, and 20,000, etc. etc. They always want to sell you some guide to making money in a crash. Carry on.

Here's one of my faves, Porter Stansberry, predicting 2018 will be the beginning of the end.
http://thecrux.com/a-huge-rally-and-...gger-collapse/

He doesn't tell you he's had the same message since 2009 lol. You would have done real well listening to his crap.

I don't know, Peter. I've heard that he's successfully predicted 12 of the last 3 recessions.

[BLongley]

When everything is great and when retail investors want buy stocks without any worry is when the bull market is near the end. This entire bull market has been climbing the "wall of worry"... "going to retest the March 09 lows", the US Debt Downgrade, the Greek debt crisis, then euro contagion, the flash crash, oil crash and then concerns of recession, etc...etc... bottom line the market has moved higher throughout history.

Since 1926 there have been 8 Bear markets with an avg duration of 1.4 years with a cumulative loss of 41%.

Since 1926 there have been 9 bull markets with an avg duration over 9 years and with a cumulative return of 476%.

It seems it's paid off to be more optimistic in the growth of US industry.

[T206Collector]

Can’t wait to see what the signed Cobb (don’t own), signed Speaker (don’t own), and signed Baker (own) will fetch in the upcoming REA.

Just talking my book!

[packs]

None of the cards will appreciate. In 2 years there will be a huge downturn and they will go back to being nickel stocks. Sell them to me for 10 cents on the dollar while you can.

[ruth_rookie]

Originally Posted by SetBuilder

You bought baseball cards on credit?

Was a joke. Guess I should’ve added a smiley face at the end of the sentence. ��

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Would anyone have said Titus ten years ago?

I'll go with Puttman.

I don't know about Puttman, but I'm in agreement with the general thinking here. The cards most likely to double or triple in price over the next two years are probably (almost certainly?) some common players. Now if you can only figure out which ones you're all set.

[CW]

Originally Posted by orly57

So 1914 Cracker Jacks then?

Hilarious comment considering that issue has probably fluctuated the most (both up and down) during the 18 years I've been collecting graded cards.

[Stampsfan]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

I don't know about Puttman, but I'm in agreement with the general thinking here. The cards most likely to double or triple in price over the next two years are probably (almost certainly?) some common players. Now if you can only figure out which ones you're all set.

The same applies to penny stocks. Personally, I struggle somewhat to predict the future.

[BruceinGa]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

The cards most likely to double or triple in price over the next two years are probably (almost certainly?) some common players. Now if you can only figure out which ones you're all set.

I hesitated to mention commons but I firmly believe that, especially better grades.

[Frank A]

It could be that tough T206 back, front combinations will jump. Some of them have very low pops.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Scrap!!

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Frank A

It could be that tough T206 back, front combinations will jump. Some of them have very low pops.

Either that or someone will discover they have a long lost cousin in the set, and corner the market

[Rhotchkiss]

These very rare backs, and I think Drums lead the way:Brown Old Mill
Brown Lenox
Drum
Broadleaf 460
Uzit

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

These very rare backs, and I think Drums lead the way:Brown Old Mill
Brown Lenox
Drum
Broadleaf 460
Uzit

I think Uzit is the one that could see a big jump. There are pretty much the same number of Drums and Uzits in the PSA pop report, but Drums go for a lot more. I can see Uzits closing the gap.

[MVSNYC]

Ryan, I agree with that list.

I also agree that Uzit has some room to to gain on Drum. I've always found Uzits extremely tough to acquire.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Ryan, I agree with that list.

I also agree that Uzit has some room to to gain on Drum. I've always found Uzits extremely tough to acquire.

PSA has graded 143 Uzits and 132 Drums. I don't understand why a Drum is 2.5 to 3 times the price of an Uzit.