Ripple Effect on Vintage

[T205 GB]

Does it happen very often when a Card of a specific player shoot through the roof, the other cards of that player seem to take a surge in price also?

Mantle is a great example of this happening since the 52 Topps sold for a record breaking price. Seems like in the past few weeks there are less and less great priced early Mantle cards. Some have damn near tripled in price.

Is this only something that Cobb, Ruth, Wagner, and Mantle can do?

[packs]

It's always been a fact is you ask me. You aren't going to find many cheap Ruth cards because Ruth in general is expensive independent of any one card. Mantle's value is ever climbing as time goes on too. I don't think it's any one card that influences the others but instead a general tier reflective of the variables that go into someone having expensive cards.

[T205 GB]

examples:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1954-Red-He...torefresh=true


https://lelands.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=87918

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by T205 GB

examples:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1954-Red-He...torefresh=true


https://lelands.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=87918

I don't see a ton of spillover for a lot of players, but I gets it's somewhat logical that as a crown jewel card goes through the roof others will try to grab say the 2nd or 3rd "most special cards" both (a) assuming they too will rise in price and (b) because they've thrown in the towel on ever owning the crown jewel card. Have seen that with Mantle and maybe some Jackie cards. Not many others. I can't see it with more modern players like Jeter and Trout, who have one or two really rare cards. JMHO.

[KMayUSA6060]

The most comparable cards to the one the skyrockets see the quickest reactionary increase, while cards that have less similarities are still of the subject may take longer to increase.

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I don't see a ton of spillover for a lot of players, but I gets it's somewhat logical that as a crown jewel card goes through the roof others will try to grab say the 2nd or 3rd "most special cards" both (a) assuming they too will rise in price and (b) because they've thrown in the towel on ever owning the crown jewel card. Have seen that with mMntle and maybe some Jackie cards. Not many others. I can't see it with more modern players like Jeter and Trout, who have one or two really rare cards. JMHO.

Makes perfect sense.

[Touch'EmAll]

Consider the percentage increase. You can have a $10k card increase $5k to $15k, thats a 50% increase. You can have a $500. card increase $250. to $750, thats the same 50% increase. I have a run of PSA 8 Hank Aaron's. Not that many years ago what used to be a $1k card now is a $2k+ card - over a 100% increase. Am sure PSA 8 Mays' have done the same - extremely well. If on more of a budget, nice for the grade PSA 7's of Hank and Willie could be good current values.

[Exhibitman]

Of course it can and should be expected to happen: it is an Econ 101 concept, an imperfect substitute good. A substitute good is a good with demand that is increased when the price of another good is increased. Imperfect substitutes have a lesser level of substitutability. If you can’t afford a high grade 1952 Mantle, a lower grade card is an imperfect substitute with a fairly high level of substitutability. If you cannot afford even a beater 1952 Topps Mantle and you want a Mantle card, you might go for a decent 1956 Mantle instead. I think that is what is going on with a lot of collectors. Most of my Mantle cards are low to midgrade because I wasn’t going to pay for a high grade example.

As for other cards, it happens all the time, just not at the high $$/very public profile of the Mantles. When I decided to buy some early Ryan cards, I opted for a 1969 Topps Ryan in really nice condition instead of a 1968 Topps RC. I'd have done the same for Bench except I bought a collection that happened to have a Bench RC in it.

[packs]

What kind of metric could you really produce for a guy like Mantle though? His cards are already at a pretty high tier in comparison to other HOFers like, say, Frank Robinson. If a PSA 10 1957 Topps Robinson rookie sold for big money I really don't think you'll see an increase in the price for 1961 Frank Robinsons. Mantle and players like him are distinct to me in that they're a head above everyone else and different rules apply.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by packs

What kind of metric could you really produce for a guy like Mantle though? His cards are already at a pretty high tier in comparison to other HOFers like, say, Frank Robinson. If a PSA 10 1957 Topps Robinson rookie sold for big money I really don't think you'll see an increase in the price for 1961 Frank Robinsons. Mantle and players like him are distinct to me in that they're a head above everyone else and different rules apply.

I guess all I would say is that there is a certain demographic of men with the disposable income to spend 85K or 200k or
500K on a card and for many of them their childhood idol was disproportionally Mickey Mantle. They are wealthy and set and they can afford to buy a piece of cardboard that costs as much as a home. Why do a lot of 60 year old men spend big bucks on vintage Camaros and Mustangs. Because it means something to them. No value judgment from me. Mantle is the closest thing to Ruth out there. Iconic. Larger than Life to some. Marilyn Monroe vs Jayne Mansfield. Elvis vs Carl Perkins. Andy Warhol vs whoever.

[packs]

I agree. What I'm trying to say is that there will only ever be a ripple effect for a guy who commands a ripple. I don't think you'll ever see a ripple effect for Enos Slaughter independent of any price any of his cards command on a day. The others won't go up because of a large sale, at least I don't think so.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't think you'll ever see a ripple effect for Enos Slaughter.

My dreams are officially crushed

[irv]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I don't see a ton of spillover for a lot of players, but I gets it's somewhat logical that as a crown jewel card goes through the roof others will try to grab say the 2nd or 3rd "most special cards" both (a) assuming they too will rise in price and (b) because they've thrown in the towel on ever owning the crown jewel card. Have seen that with Mantle and maybe some Jackie cards. Not many others. I can't see it with more modern players like Jeter and Trout, who have one or two really rare cards. JMHO.

I've been watching this one that is posted in modern and it got me thinking, before this thread, now that it is getting out of reach for many, what is/will be the 2nd most popular card of his to start climbing exponentially?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-SP-Foi...la8&rmvSB=true

Doing a quick Google/E-Bay look, I came up with this one but there are a ton of refractor and other current unique cards of his that currently are commanding more money so who knows for sure?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/362316090966
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/352347656463

Likely most of his cards will rise despite the current PWCC one but in my opinion, once word gets out what this one sells/sold for, I think it will speed up considerably.

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by irv

I've been watching this one that is posted in modern and it got me thinking, before this thread, now that it is getting out of reach for many, what is/will be the 2nd most popular card of his to start climbing exponentially?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-SP-Foi...la8&rmvSB=true

Doing a quick Google/E-Bay look, I came up with this one but there are a ton of refractor and other current unique cards of his that currently are commanding more money so who knows for sure?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/362316090966
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/352347656463

Likely most of his cards will rise despite the current PWCC one but in my opinion, once word gets out what this one sells/sold for, I think it will speed up considerably.

That SP Foil is a tough card in that grade. Regardless the bid history is total BS and the price is bogus.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by irv

I've been watching this one that is posted in modern and it got me thinking, before this thread, now that it is getting out of reach for many, what is/will be the 2nd most popular card of his to start climbing exponentially?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-SP-Foi...la8&rmvSB=true

Doing a quick Google/E-Bay look, I came up with this one but there are a ton of refractor and other current unique cards of his that currently are commanding more money so who knows for sure?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/362316090966
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/352347656463

Likely most of his cards will rise despite the current PWCC one but in my opinion, once word gets out what this one sells/sold for, I think it will speed up considerably.

People will just buy PSA 9s instead or the BGS 9.5s that got rejected by PSA because they were cut small at the factory. That price reflects that only 22 have been graded PSA 10 out of over 100k that were made. Any rise in his cards will be in other grades above 8 of that Jeter and not in other rookie cards with print runs of ~ 1 million. There are ~8600 PSA 8 SP Jeter, so that will always provide a reasonable alternative for someone wanting a Jeter RC.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by packs

I agree. What I'm trying to say is that there will only ever be a ripple effect for a guy who commands a ripple. I don't think you'll ever see a ripple effect for Enos Slaughter independent of any price any of his cards command on a day. The others won't go up because of a large sale, at least I don't think so.

I agree.

[WWG]

Originally Posted by T205 GB

That SP Foil is a tough card in that grade. Regardless the bid history is total BS and the price is bogus.

Here's some past auction prices:

A PSA Gem Mint 10 #279 Jeter sold for $24,450 and $37,000 in 2012 and $33,842 in 2013
A PSA Gem Mint 10 #279 Jeter sold for $37,375 in 2016
A PSA Gem Mint 10 #279 Jeter sold for $54,576 in 2017

[irv]

Originally Posted by T205 GB

That SP Foil is a tough card in that grade. Regardless the bid history is total BS and the price is bogus.

I'm not sure I'm picking up what you're putting down? Are you saying this card is falsely being run up like we experienced in the summer of 16, or something else?
I don't follow his cards at all, (but may now?) so I was fairly unaware (knew a little bit of that) just how tough that foil card is.

Originally Posted by rats60

People will just buy PSA 9s instead or the BGS 9.5s that got rejected by PSA because they were cut small at the factory. That price reflects that only 22 have been graded PSA 10 out of over 100k that were made. Any rise in his cards will be in other grades above 8 of that Jeter and not in other rookie cards with print runs of ~ 1 million. There are ~8600 PSA 8 SP Jeter, so that will always provide a reasonable alternative for someone wanting a Jeter RC.

I wasn't aware of those numbers so what you say makes sense. Personally, I can still see his cards rising at a decent rate before they settle out or come back down to earth, but it sure will be fun to watch once this PWCC auction is over.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by conor912

My dreams are officially crushed

heh, that's funny.

[irv]

Originally Posted by WWG

Here's some past auction prices:

A PSA Gem Mint 10 #279 Jeter sold for $24,450 and $37,000 in 2012 and $33,842 in 2013
A PSA Gem Mint 10 #279 Jeter sold for $37,375 in 2016
A PSA Gem Mint 10 #279 Jeter sold for $54,576 in 2017

Interesting! I thought what we were seeing with this recent PWCC one was just a new trend. I had no idea this card was selling for so much 5-6 years ago.

With that being said, in reality, the PWCC one doesn't seem really all that crazy now.

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by irv

Interesting! I thought what we were seeing with this recent PWCC one was just a new trend. I had no idea this card was selling for so much 5-6 years ago.

With that being said, in reality, the PWCC one doesn't seem really all that crazy now.

Sorry Dale I hope you didn't take offense to what I was saying. I was just stating that the bid history for that Jeter SP Foil is sketchy. I don't think it would be a stretch to say there is some pricing manipulation.

[irv]

Originally Posted by T205 GB

Sorry Dale I hope you didn't take offense to what I was saying. I was just stating that the bid history for that Jeter SP Foil is sketchy. I don't think it would be a stretch to say there is some pricing manipulation.

None taken whatsoever, Andrew. I was just confused on what you were saying and wasn't sure if you were talking about the actual bidders and the amount of bids they had or something else?

I did think, until I seen those previous sales, that this card was being run up/manipulated compared to previous prices realized, but now I realize that might not necessarily be the case?

[T205 GB]

You can check the bid history of those guys. One is 100% and the other is 93%. Right now PWCC has a lot of Jeter Foils for sale on auction format and this big card selling will cause the others they are selling to jump also. I couldn’t get the 10 for 15K but this 9 works for $7000 if the 10 just sold at $65000. I could just be a conspiracy guy too!

[irv]

Originally Posted by T205 GB

You can check the bid history of those guys. One is 100% and the other is 93%. Right now PWCC has a lot of Jeter Foils for sale and this big card selling will cause the others they are selling to jump also. I couldn’t get the 10 for 15K but this 9 works for $7000 if the 10 just sold at $65000. I could just be a conspiracy guys too!

I looked at those as well. Makes one wonder, doesn't it.

[WWG]

$99K
Underbidder has 14 retractions.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-SP-Foi...rue&rmvSB=true

[irv]

Originally Posted by T205 GB

You can check the bid history of those guys. One is 100% and the other is 93%. Right now PWCC has a lot of Jeter Foils for sale on auction format and this big card selling will cause the others they are selling to jump also. I couldn’t get the 10 for 15K but this 9 works for $7000 if the 10 just sold at $65000. I could just be a conspiracy guy too!

Things that make you go, Mmm.

Originally Posted by WWG

$99K
Underbidder has 14 retractions.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-SP-Foi...rue&rmvSB=true

Nothing to see here, it is well under their 25 bid retraction limit if you have never done business with them before.

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by irv

things that make you go, mmm.



nothing to see here, it is well under their 25 bid retraction limit if you have never done business with them before.

lmao:d

[T205 GB]

Looks like eBay has a BVG 7.5 54 Red Heart Mantle for $1499 with a bid. Looks like the market is on the rise for Red Hearts now. Wish I could afford to buy up a bunch of those or just one 52 Topps Mantle in VG

[WWG]

Originally Posted by irv

Things that make you go, Mmm.
Nothing to see here, it is well under their 25 bid retraction limit if you have never done business with them before.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brent Huigens View Post[/list]As pointed out by many of you, 25 is indeed a very high number of bid retractions to be considered reasonable in a six-month period. It stands to reason that any bidder who is bidding with discipline and control should have very few justifiable retractions. Brent and I put great consideration on how we would roll out this process. Truly, if we placed the threshold at something lower like 10 or 5, we feared it would be too much of a drastic change. Ultimately, our goal is not to punish bidders, but rather to inform users of the rules as we believe in due time bid retractions will diminish.

We are starting with 25 as the threshold to help get the word out. Starting in Q1 2017 it will be reduced to 10, and later in 2017 it may be reduced to 5.

[T205 GB]

Lets Try to keep the train on the tracks here. We are talking about the ripple effects of certain players cards selling at great increases and how it draws the rest of the field up with it.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by conor912

My dreams are officially crushed

I am hoping for a unibrow explosion....

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by Leon

I am hoping for a unibrow explosion....

Have a big card there if it ever happens. Probably the best brow in the business

[WWG]

Originally Posted by T205 GB

Have a big card there if it ever happens. Probably the best brow in the business

"Lets Try to keep the train on the tracks here. We are talking about the ripple effects of certain players cards selling at great increases and how it draws the rest of the field up with it."

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by WWG

"Lets Try to keep the train on the tracks here. We are talking about the ripple effects of certain players cards selling at great increases and how it draws the rest of the field up with it."

Touche` Lol

[Leon]

Originally Posted by T205 GB

Touche` Lol

So he's saying Wally doesn't have a chance?

Back to the serious baseball card topic......In the early vintage space I am not sure I have seen big players bring up lesser known players. I don't think the tides raise all cards equally.
.

[T205 GB]

Yeah I think Mr Moon will not be surging any thing other than a pair of clippers that get tangled in those brows.