New Poll: Which Active Players are 'Shoe-in' HOFers?

[clydepepper]

Any or all of these or anyone else:

[dgo71]

I think they'll all get in actually, but Kershaw has too much career left ahead of him (hopefully) to say he's a shoo-in just yet, IMO. Beltre may struggle with people who think his career was tainted and/or that he was a compiler.

[packs]

I think Beltre gets in but I think he has to wait just like Piazza and Bagwell did, for the same reasons.

[vintagetoppsguy]

Originally Posted by packs

I think Beltre gets in but I think he has to wait just like Piazza and Bagwell did, for the same reasons.

As an Astros & Bagwell fan, I believe he used. I was surprised that he got in so quickly. I figured he eventually would, but I thought he would have a longer wait.

Here's an interesting article on Bagwell.

http://www.baseballevolution.com/ash...onspiracy.html

[packs]

I kind of wish this poll had different players in it, with the exception of Beltre. His career is interesting to discuss but I don't think many people will be voting against Ichiro. I'm wondering how people feel about Joe Mauer, Chase Utley or Michael Young. It's more fun to talk about the fringe guys.

[conor912]

A shoe-in can only be identified post-prime. The first three are in. Beltre's on the fence. Kershaw needs another 3+ years of prime to enter the discussion.

[rats60]

2 people don't think Pujols is a Hofer? All of those guys are a lock right now, even Kershaw. Beltre has 3000 hits, a lock for HOF, and is a top 5 defensive 3b. Kershaw lacks traditional stats such as wins, but his ERA and other "ratio" stats are insane. He also has 3 Cy Youngs and a MVP. That trumps his poor post seasons and years of service.

As others have said, the interesting discussion is the borderline guys like Mauer or Sabathia. What do they need to do to make the HOF?

[Peter_Spaeth]

The perception of Beltre doubtless is hurt by so many years toiling in Seattle and Texas, and not much postseason exposure.

[packs]

I think suspicions will haunt him but they didn't keep Pudge from being first ballot. Beltre's career bugs me because he put up his best year in LA while known cheaters like Shawn Green, Paul Lo Duca and Eric Gagne were on the team. He hasn't come close to his 2004 season since and it was during a walk year. He then stinks it up in Seattle, gets hurt during that walk year, and signs a contract with Boston. It's a one year deal and during that walk year he puts up his best season since 2004. Then he signs a huge contract with Texas.

His career has picked up at dubious times and I can't help but pay attention to it. But I also don't think it'll hurt him other than delaying the inevitable IF it does get delayed.

[Jim65]

Originally Posted by rats60

2 people don't think Pujols is a Hofer?

I didnt vote for Pujols. The question is whether he is a shoo in not whether he is a HOFer. There are enough rumors about him and PED use, there might be some writers who feel he should wait like Piazza had too.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Bill since you want to discount as atypical Beltre's 2004, what do his Seattle numbers look like if you don't include 2009? Quite a bit better, I expect.

[the 'stache]

Excluding his dismal 2009 season, Beltre's OPS + in Seattle, between 2005 and 2008, is 105. 5% above league average. Over the same four year period, Raul Ibanez had a 121 OPS.

Beltre's '05-'08 slash line is .319 OBP/.454 SLG/.773 OPS.
The AL average slash line from '05-'08 is .344 OBP/.433 SLG/.777 OPS.

Before going to Boston, when he had that career 105 OPS +, Beltre had had 7,455 plate appearances. How do we overlook that mediocrity for so long? Mike Trout has had 4,065 plate appearances in his career. Take how long Trout has played, (nearly) double it, and that's how long Adrian Beltre was a fringe league average hitter.

I can't overlook that. There is no logical way to explain how Beltre turned into a star after playing so long. That seems to happen to guys that go to Boston. David Ortiz was lousy in Minnesota. He had a career 108 OPS +, though he only had 1,908 career plate appearances. But he goes to Boston, and suddenly, he's got a 140 OPS +. And not banging countless shots off of, and over the Green Monster. Ortiz was a left handed pull hitter. The Monster is in left field.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bill since you want to discount as atypical Beltre's 2004, what do his Seattle numbers look like if you don't include 2009? Quite a bit better, I expect.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Excluding his dismal 2009 season, Beltre's OPS + in Seattle, between 2005 and 2008, is 105. 5% above league average. Over the same four year period, Raul Ibanez had a 121 OPS.

Beltre's '05-'08 slash line is .319 OBP/.454 SLG/.773 OPS.
The AL average slash line from '05-'08 is .344 OBP/.433 SLG/.777 OPS.

Before going to Boston, when he had that career 105 OPS +, Beltre had had 7,455 plate appearances. How do we overlook that mediocrity for so long? Mike Trout has had 4,065 plate appearances in his career. Take how long Trout has played, (nearly) double it, and that's how long Adrian Beltre was a fringe league average hitter.

I can't overlook that. There is no logical way to explain how Beltre turned into a star after playing so long. That seems to happen to guys that go to Boston. David Ortiz was lousy in Minnesota. He had a career 108 OPS +, though he only had 1,908 career plate appearances. But he goes to Boston, and suddenly, he's got a 140 OPS +. And not banging countless shots off of, and over the Green Monster. Ortiz was a left handed pull hitter. The Monster is in left field.

Brooks Robinson has an OPS+ of 104. Would you not vote for him? Beltre has an OPS+ of 117. Beltre started his exceptional run at the plate since his age 31 season. Starting at age 25, he only had 2 down years. I don't see that as out of line, especially from a foreign player. It some times takes time to adjust to playing and living in a foreign country. Roberto Clemente's peak was age 31 to 35. I know convension today is a player's career is pretty much over by age 30, but that is not always true.