93 Jeter SP Rookie Pop Report Jump Doubles

[Johnny630]

Has anyone else but me noticed this ?

The pop report on th SP Jeter Rookie in PSA 10 has been sitting at 11 for almost 20 years. Now after the National it’s 22 !

From what I’ve heard, I hope someone else can confirm, that a gentleman subbed several at the National and got 10 Or 11 PSA 10’s!!!!

This card is super condition sensitive, PSA usually kills them for any minor flaw.

Whomever had 10’s prior to the National has got to be shocked!!

Thoughts

[AGuinness]

Back in May it was 22. That's when the card hit nearly $100,000 at auction and I cited the PSA pop report for 10s in another thread:

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=254951

I figured that a bunch of 9s would be resubmitted, plus other raw cards sent in, and the population of 10s would go up after the auction. Hasn't happened, yet, it seems (since May).

[Johnny630]

Thanks Garth :-)

So it jumped to 22 in This May??

[AGuinness]

Wish I could tell you, but that was the first time I really went out of my way to look at the population. It could have doubled between April and May for all I know!

[Dpeck100]

It has been climbing for the past five years for sure. You might be able to look at some older auctions from PWCC, EBAY, and various auction houses to see what was quoted in the listing. It definitely didn't double overnight.

[Republicaninmass]

And to think When psa is stricter than it has ever been!

These could have gone to 11 way back when

[stevecarlton1972]

I could be wrong but I feel his rookie 1993 SP card is way overvalued right now. Or it could be one of those cards that just transcends the hobby and will always be something that collectors hold in high regard like the Honus Wagner, Mantle Rookie, or even the Griffey Upper Deck Rookie.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by AGuinness

Back in May it was 22. That's when the card hit nearly $100,000 at auction and I cited the PSA pop report for 10s in another thread:

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=254951

I figured that a bunch of 9s would be resubmitted, plus other raw cards sent in, and the population of 10s would go up after the auction. Hasn't happened, yet, it seems (since May).

IMHO, that price is totally absurd when in fact he was really essentially the same player as Trammell--check the OPS+ for both, and if anything, Trammell was superior in the field (I watched him for almost 20 years). Jeter was simply more of a compiler, and had the good fortune of playing for New York.

To each his own, and happy collecting,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by stevecarlton1972

I could be wrong but I feel his rookie 1993 SP card is way overvalued right now. Or it could be one of those cards that just transcends the hobby and will always be something that collectors hold in high regard like the Honus Wagner, Mantle Rookie, or even the Griffey Upper Deck Rookie.

The former assertion is correct, and the latter proposition totally absurd IMHO. As stated, check the OPS+, which alone has a 90+ % correlation to runs created. He was essentially Allan Trammell offensively, just not quite as good a fielder.

Highest regards,

Larry

[BLongley]

The NY Yankees and World Series wins is what puts his cards to that higher level. He became the face of the Yankees when they hadn't won a World Series in years and then became a dynasty...like most players whose cards are expensive...it becomes more than just stats. Otherwise Willie Mays cards would be worth more than Mantles...etc...

Originally Posted by ls7plus

The former assertion is correct, and the latter proposition totally absurd IMHO. As stated, check the OPS+, which alone has a 90+ % correlation to runs created. He was essentially Allan Trammell offensively, just not quite as good a fielder.

Highest regards,

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

IMHO, that price is totally absurd when in fact he was really essentially the same player as Trammell--check the OPS+ for both, and if anything, Trammell was superior in the field (I watched him for almost 20 years). Jeter was simply more of a compiler, and had the good fortune of playing for New York.

To each his own, and happy collecting,

Larry

Clean-cut, drug-free, respectful, All-American young man in an era of Bonds, A Rod, Clemens, etc. And correctly or not, people perceived him to be a big game player which elevated perception way above his stats.

[Dpeck100]

Don’t forget his legendary lineup of chicks he kicked to the curb.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

The former assertion is correct, and the latter proposition totally absurd IMHO. As stated, check the OPS+, which alone has a 90+ % correlation to runs created. He was essentially Allan Trammell offensively, just not quite as good a fielder.

Highest regards,

Larry

The people paying for that card may not have grown up when trammel was playing....its all in the timing...plus all of the playoffs/world series ..im sure when george foster was playing he was considered a star but now hes a common

[HasselhoffsCheeseburger]

We're counting that $99k sale legit? Oh, okay. Guess I missed that memo. Carry on.

Arthur

[Dpeck100]

Arthur for what it’s worth the winning bidder did claim it and PWCC said it was paid for in the SI story.

That said I think it had some very questionable bidding towards the end so hard to say it could routinely sell for that price.

[Republicaninmass]

I think there is one in an auction house at 62k plus juice

[Dpeck100]

One from 2008 when it was a Pop 9 and the recent sale.

76k

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Arthur for what it’s worth the winning bidder did claim it and PWCC said it was paid for in the SI story.

That said I think it had some very questionable bidding towards the end so hard to say it could routinely sell for that price.

I am SHOCKED!! At the bidding that is.
Not that the winning bidder bid that much or paid, it seems there are quite a few guys who can be persuaded to part with more of their money for a particular card than a more seasoned collector would view as rational.

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

IMHO, that price is totally absurd when in fact he was really essentially the same player as Trammell--check the OPS+ for both, and if anything, Trammell was superior in the field (I watched him for almost 20 years). Jeter was simply more of a compiler, and had the good fortune of playing for New York.

To each his own, and happy collecting,

Larry

But it is impossible to separate Jeter being the face of the most famous team in American sports for 20 years. The 52T Mantle would not be the second or third most important card in the hobby if Mickey Mantle had spent 14 years playing in Kansas City.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

The former assertion is correct, and the latter proposition totally absurd IMHO. As stated, check the OPS+, which alone has a 90+ % correlation to runs created. He was essentially Allan Trammell offensively, just not quite as good a fielder.

Highest regards,

Larry

Jeter has a career oWAR of 96.3, 20th all time. That is higher than Jimmie Foxx, Mike Schmidt, Albert Pujols and Ken Gfiffey Jr. Alan Trammell has a career oWAR of 63, 83rd all time right between Bernie Williams and Larry Walker. People remember the offense and don't really care about defense. They care about championships, which Jeter leads 5 to 1. They care about his postseason records, including most hits, total bases and runs scored. They care about milestones like 3000 hits and being 6th all time in hits. That is why Jeter will be a 1st ballot HOFer with one of the highest vote % ever and Trammell couldn't get 75% of the vote from the baseball writers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

On Baseball Reference Trammell ranks ahead of Jeter on JAWS, just barely. All a question of which metric you want to trot out.

Jeter's off-stat sheet attributes are probably as high as anyone who has ever played the game though. New York. Yankees. Playing for many great teams in many post-seasons (and yes he is part of the reason they were great but put him on the Orioles and they still aren't winners.) Even if somewhat wooden, a fine, role-model type individual amid the human disasters that were many stars of the era. Intangible leadership qualities (the Captain). Memorable plays in the field perhaps overshadowing his average fielding abilities (flip play, going into stands). The perception, at least, that he played better on the big stage and in clutch moments.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by BLongley

The NY Yankees and World Series wins is what puts his cards to that higher level. He became the face of the Yankees when they hadn't won a World Series in years and then became a dynasty...like most players whose cards are expensive...it becomes more than just stats. Otherwise Willie Mays cards would be worth more than Mantles...etc...

The problem with that is, in Jeter's case, it's like buying a home without a foundation. His trademark hit was a fisted blooper into right field. To each his own re collecting--I just wouldn't look at the price paid for a PSA 10 as an investment, unless you could calculate a way to make it a tax write-off in 10 to 20 years.

Best wishes,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by rats60

Jeter has a career oWAR of 96.3, 20th all time. That is higher than Jimmie Foxx, Mike Schmidt, Albert Pujols and Ken Gfiffey Jr. Alan Trammell has a career oWAR of 63, 83rd all time right between Bernie Williams and Larry Walker. People remember the offense and don't really care about defense. They care about championships, which Jeter leads 5 to 1. They care about his postseason records, including most hits, total bases and runs scored. They care about milestones like 3000 hits and being 6th all time in hits. That is why Jeter will be a 1st ballot HOFer with one of the highest vote % ever and Trammell couldn't get 75% of the vote from the baseball writers.

As I said, Jeter was a quantitative compiler, and very, very clearly almost exactly the same quality player as Trammell. Plus, WAR (worthless analytical rat-shit) currently has Milwaukee's Cain as the best player in the NL. Is there anyone---anyone--who would take him over Baez, Freeman, Carpenter or any number of others? If so, watch out for the guys in the white coats! And if anyone truly thinks that Jeter was a better player than Mike Schmidt (the best 3rd baseman of all time) or Jimmy Foxx, better take cover immediately--the gentlemen in the white coats are rapidly gaining on you! Quick, duck--they just missed grabbing your coattails!

As an illuminating example of just how worthless WAR is, in any form, MLB Now had as a guest the person in charge of calculating and keeping track of defensive runs saved. In response to co-guest Ken Rosenthal's question, that person acknowledged that in point of actual fact, a defensive run saved is not actually a defensive run saved, because those who calculate such things totally ignore the context in which an outstanding defensive play is made. Thus, a diving stab and subsequent putout on a grounder about to get through the infield with the bases loaded and two out is worth exactly the same as the same play made with a runner on first and two out--one defensive run saved. In reality, the expected run value in the latter situation is far from a complete run-- it is actually 0.2203. Counting it as nearly .78 greater than it actually is in this and other such situations hugely inflates the defensive component of WAR. And insofar as the baserunning component of WAR is concerned, check out the guys who tend to lead the league in runs scored, which is of course the ultimate objective of running the bases--TO GET HOME! They most frequently are the players with the highest OBP, coupled with the capacity to get themselves all around the bases with one swing while standing at home plate--can you say Babe Ruth (led the league in runs scored 8 times)? Mickey Mantle (led 5 times, despite all his injuries)? Ted Williams (yes, with six top totals, he led the league in runs scored more times than DiMaggio, despite missing nearly 5 full years of his prime to military service)? Which is why Ralph Kiner, who could hardly have been said to have been touched at all with the gift of speed, scored over 100 runs 6 TIMES! Luis Aparacio had speed to burn, both to steal bases and take the extra base, yet he never, ever scored 100 runs in a single season even once in his career. The baserunning components of WAR are thus also greatly inflated.

Insofar as offensive WAR is concerned, my information is that it is based upon Pete Palmer's linear weights values, due largely to the fact that Bill James' far more accurate formula for calculating runs created--shown to be consistently accurate within 2-3%--is more cumbersome to use and more complicated.

In the middle of last season, WAR had Andrelton Simmons as the most valuable player in the AL. No, I'm not kidding--Simmons (who is admittedly a very fine fielding shortstop)! My point with regard to WAR is that when your methodology leads you to absurd results, the intelligent person questions his methodology, rather than following it blindly wherever it may lead.

Concluding, it will be interesting to see where Jeter's popularity ends up if he is actually doing what he appears to be doing with the Miami francise--stripping it of expenses by trading quality players and getting very little in return--and selling it 5-7 years down the road to double his and the other investors' money (in case anyone hasn't noticed, that is approximately the rate at which the value of sports franchises is appreciating).

As I've stated, buy him if you like him, but don't think he was in any way, shape or form any kind of world-beater as a player. It is indisputable that there have been a very, very large number of better players throughout the history of the game than Derek Jeter.

May collecting bring you joy rather than distress,

Larry

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Concluding, it will be interesting to see where Jeter's popularity ends up if he is actually doing what he appears to be doing with the Miami francise--stripping it of expenses by trading quality players and getting very little in return--and selling it 5-7 years down the road to double his and the other investors' money (in case anyone hasn't noticed, that is approximately the rate at which the value of sports franchises is appreciating).

Jeter's performance as an executive will have zero impact on his long-term popularity, IMO. If such was the case, Michael Jordan's popularity would have plummeted by now based on his lack of success as an executive. The list of superstar players who have failed as managers is long, and it doesn't hurt their standing as players.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Bored5000

Jeter's performance as an executive will have zero impact on his long-term popularity, IMO. If such was the case, Michael Jordan's popularity would have plummeted by now based on his lack of success as an executive. The list of superstar players who have failed as managers is long, and it doesn't hurt their standing as players.

Funny how the opposite is true! Plenty of managers headed to the hall that were par players or worse

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Funny how the opposite is true! Plenty of managers headed to the hall that were par players or worse

That seems to be a pretty well-known phenomenon that superstar players often poor managers because they often have difficulty relating to role players or guys with limited skills. Sure, there are exceptions. But so many of the best managers were average to below average players.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

As I said, Jeter was a quantitative compiler, and very, very clearly almost exactly the same quality player as Trammell. Plus, WAR (worthless analytical rat-shit) currently has Milwaukee's Cain as the best player in the NL. Is there anyone---anyone--who would take him over Baez, Freeman, Carpenter or any number of others? If so, watch out for the guys in the white coats! And if anyone truly thinks that Jeter was a better player than Mike Schmidt (the best 3rd baseman of all time) or Jimmy Foxx, better take cover immediately--the gentlemen in the white coats are rapidly gaining on you! Quick, duck--they just missed grabbing your coattails!

As an illuminating example of just how worthless WAR is, in any form, MLB Now had as a guest the person in charge of calculating and keeping track of defensive runs saved. In response to co-guest Ken Rosenthal's question, that person acknowledged that in point of actual fact, a defensive run saved is not actually a defensive run saved, because those who calculate such things totally ignore the context in which an outstanding defensive play is made. Thus, a diving stab and subsequent putout on a grounder about to get through the infield with the bases loaded and two out is worth exactly the same as the same play made with a runner on first and two out--one defensive run saved. In reality, the expected run value in the latter situation is far from a complete run-- it is actually 0.2203. Counting it as nearly .78 greater than it actually is in this and other such situations hugely inflates the defensive component of WAR. And insofar as the baserunning component of WAR is concerned, check out the guys who tend to lead the league in runs scored, which is of course the ultimate objective of running the bases--TO GET HOME! They most frequently are the players with the highest OBP, coupled with the capacity to get themselves all around the bases with one swing while standing at home plate--can you say Babe Ruth (led the league in runs scored 8 times)? Mickey Mantle (led 5 times, despite all his injuries)? Ted Williams (yes, with six top totals, he led the league in runs scored more times than DiMaggio, despite missing nearly 5 full years of his prime to military service)? Which is why Ralph Kiner, who could hardly have been said to have been touched at all with the gift of speed, scored over 100 runs 6 TIMES! Luis Aparacio had speed to burn, both to steal bases and take the extra base, yet he never, ever scored 100 runs in a single season even once in his career. The baserunning components of WAR are thus also greatly inflated.

Insofar as offensive WAR is concerned, my information is that it is based upon Pete Palmer's linear weights values, due largely to the fact that Bill James' far more accurate formula for calculating runs created--shown to be consistently accurate within 2-3%--is more cumbersome to use and more complicated.

In the middle of last season, WAR had Andrelton Simmons as the most valuable player in the AL. No, I'm not kidding--Simmons (who is admittedly a very fine fielding shortstop)! My point with regard to WAR is that when your methodology leads you to absurd results, the intelligent person questions his methodology, rather than following it blindly wherever it may lead.

Concluding, it will be interesting to see where Jeter's popularity ends up if he is actually doing what he appears to be doing with the Miami francise--stripping it of expenses by trading quality players and getting very little in return--and selling it 5-7 years down the road to double his and the other investors' money (in case anyone hasn't noticed, that is approximately the rate at which the value of sports franchises is appreciating).

As I've stated, buy him if you like him, but don't think he was in any way, shape or form any kind of world-beater as a player. It is indisputable that there have been a very, very large number of better players throughout the history of the game than Derek Jeter.

May collecting bring you joy rather than distress,

Larry

Cain has the highest dWAR in the NL, kind of like Trammell having a similar WAR to Jeter. People don't care about Cain because they don't care about defense.

Even using OPS+ Jeter was significantly better than Trammell. He was 5% higher over a career of more than 3200 extra plate appearances. His slash numbers across the board were 25 points higher. Jeter only had one season below league average, at age 36. How is that accumulating stats? Any team would take a middle infielder who was an above average hitter. At age 36, Trammell was done as a regular. During his prime, Trammell was below average 7 of 15 seasons where he played 100 + games. Jeter was consistantly very good through out his career and in the post season. He was much better offensively than Trammell, that is why he will be a 1st ballot Hofer and Trammell couldn't get elected in 15 tries.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Just looked at the stats again. Jeter was 25 points higher in BA, 25 points higher in OBP, and 30 points higher in SLG. That seems a fairly substantial gap so not quite sure I understand the argument that they are virtually identical?

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by rats60

Cain has the highest dWAR in the NL, kind of like Trammell having a similar WAR to Jeter. People don't care about Cain because they don't care about defense.

Even using OPS+ Jeter was significantly better than Trammell. He was 5% higher over a career of more than 3200 extra plate appearances. His slash numbers across the board were 25 points higher. Jeter only had one season below league average, at age 36. How is that accumulating stats? Any team would take a middle infielder who was an above average hitter. At age 36, Trammell was done as a regular. During his prime, Trammell was below average 7 of 15 seasons where he played 100 + games. Jeter was consistantly very good through out his career and in the post season. He was much better offensively than Trammell, that is why he will be a 1st ballot Hofer and Trammell couldn't get elected in 15 tries.

No, he wasn't "much better than Trammell." 110 or 111 OPS+ for Trammell, 115 OPS + for Jeter. Very nearly the same with regard to quality, with the difference due to different playing conditions and different eras. You simply confirmed what was stated earlier--Jeter was a quantitative compiler (neither remotely compares to Schmidt at 147 OPS+ or Foxx at 163 as an offensive player, and OPS correlates to run production at a rate in excess of 93%. Plus, as I recall, Schmidt won 10 gold gloves). But if you like him, buy him. Collecting should be individualistic fun for each of us. My concern is that to some, it exposes the hobby to ridicule when a 1993 card supposedly sells for $99,000, and rarer cards of substantially better players a mere fraction of that.

Highest regards in any even,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Just looked at the stats again. Jeter was 25 points higher in BA, 25 points higher in OBP, and 30 points higher in SLG. That seems a fairly substantial gap so not quite sure I understand the argument that they are virtually identical?

Different eras and different playing conditions, Pete. OPS has a 93%+ correlation to run production. Trammell, at 110 or 111 OPS+ (depending upon your source) is hardly much different than Jeter's 115 OPS+. OPS+ adjusts for different eras and playing conditions, and is one valid means of comparing players across different eras (I personally prefer Bill James formula for runs created compared to the league average, which has been shown to be accurate within 2-3%, and achieves the same goal but more accurately--OPS+ is in reality something of a shorthand for James' complete formula--to each his own). Simply by way of example, runs created shrank pretty substantially when the slider came into widespread prominence after WWII (it existed earlier, but was not widely used), so one cannot simply compare purely basic stats like batting averages, etc. of the 1920's (when most pitchers employed only a fastball or curveball, with an occasional straight change) to the 1940's and '50's. Plus much larger gloves came into being over that period of time.

Best wishes always,

Larry

[robkas68]

With respect to the whole Jeter, Trammell thing. Trammell was really good. Jeter was better. That said, Jeter gets more pop than he deserves (Yankee effect, etc.). He was no Ted Williams.

With respect to the card prices, I think it is all sorts of silly and that lends itself to a possible fall. I have Jeter SP in a bvg 8.5 which is about $250. The “subtle difference” in my card and a 10 justifies a 400x increase when if you broke the cases there is a decent chance they could both wind up a “9” is a bit hard to swallow. However, the Jeter example is probably no more ridiculous than any other modern “10” hysteria. 1986 Fleer Basketball Johnny Moore is $4,000 in a 10 and $12 in an 8. There are 54 “rare” 10s compared to over a thousand 8s. So if I have a 10 and you have an 8, throwing in a 1939 Ted Williams rookie in let’s say a 5 and a 1939 Dimaggio in a 5 evens out the deal? That is the price difference because your Johnny Moore card has a tiny bit of wear on one corner that is “easily detectable” when you look at it under a magnifying glass?

That’s my definition of silly.

[HasselhoffsCheeseburger]

Haven't there been multiple PSA 10s to come up for sale since the $99k? And haven't none of them even sniffed $70k? I'm not alone here, right? Other people smell what I'm stepping in, right? I mean, it's kind of laying out there like a stale fart.

Arthur

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by robkas68

With respect to the whole Jeter, Trammell thing. Trammell was really good. Jeter was better. That said, Jeter gets more pop than he deserves (Yankee effect, etc.). He was no Ted Williams.

With respect to the card prices, I think it is all sorts of silly and that lends itself to a possible fall. I have Jeter SP in a bvg 8.5 which is about $250. The “subtle difference” in my card and a 10 justifies a 400x increase when if you broke the cases there is a decent chance they could both wind up a “9” is a bit hard to swallow. However, the Jeter example is probably no more ridiculous than any other modern “10” hysteria. 1986 Fleer Basketball Johnny Moore is $4,000 in a 10 and $12 in an 8. There are 54 “rare” 10s compared to over a thousand 8s. So if I have a 10 and you have an 8, throwing in a 1939 Ted Williams rookie in let’s say a 5 and a 1939 Dimaggio in a 5 evens out the deal? That is the price difference because your Johnny Moore card has a tiny bit of wear on one corner that is “easily detectable” when you look at it under a magnifying glass?

That’s my definition of silly.

The artificial creation of a gem mint grade, and the set registry, were strokes of genius. How well PSA understood the egos of collectors with money. To you and to me, it's absurd, of course. Here is my inferior Jeter which cost $300 or maybe even less not all that long ago.

[robkas68]

I've changed my mind. The .5 grade difference is really really meaningful and I am highly embarrassed to display my "8" corners subgrade card on this fine forum. Not only is the price difference totally justified, but my willingness to put up with sloppy corners probably speaks to my worth as a human being and I have to thank Beckett for pointing out this flaw in my character. If I try to be better, perhaps the net54 community will forgive me.

[robkas68]

While still deeply humiliated by my 8.5, I will point out that I think my 9.5 centering is better than your 9.5 centering. I think my centering is really like a 9.57 while yours is really like a 9.46 and they just rounded up. I hoping that this will be a point of reflection for you Peter on your standards. You can't always count on the 22 year old kid at Beckett cutting you a break.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I would be ashamed to own that card.

[rats60]

The difference between Jeter and Trammell is a lot. That is like saying Ralph Kiner and Jeff Bagwell were just as good of hitters as Willie Mays and Hank Aaron. They were not, they were ~5% worse and played few years in the majors. The ability to play at a high level for a long time is better than playing at a lower level for a shorter time.

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by HasselhoffsCheeseburger

Haven't there been multiple PSA 10s to come up for sale since the $99k? And haven't none of them even sniffed $70k? I'm not alone here, right? Other people smell what I'm stepping in, right? I mean, it's kind of laying out there like a stale fart.

Arthur

The pic of the example that went for 76k was very recent. Still a far cry from 99k.

23 grand is 23 grand.

[BearBailey]

Well this made me pull my sp jeter rookies out of the common box, next step get around to getting them graded.

[aconte]

Here's my cheaper version.