PSA/SGC grade est. - Aim high or low?

[scomeau]

Need help w estimating strategy: I'm struggling. I want to grade a bunch of items pre & post war and neither grading company has replied to my question via email. I'm not trying to cheap out, but I don't want to spend $40 for what turns out to be a $99 card.

The problem: Even with PSA's SMR, VCP, eBay as sources for pricing, prices are all over the map based on grade. Makes sense, but grading is hard and it seems to change. I often don't know how to differentiate cards that are between 4 and 7 or higher grades. A 4 from a 7 - probably easy enough, but sometimes 2 or 3 grades are possible.

I'm no pro, but the value difference between 5 and 6 for say, a '56 Topps Williams, is pretty big $180 vs $275. Small potatoes if just one card, but how about a '55 Clemente or a hundred 1956 Topps? I can't tell what I might get back even when I apply PSA's published criteria - such as 'minor edge chipping' vs 'slight notching chipping'. What is 'some loss of gloss' compared to 'average loss of gloss'? Maybe you see a million examples and have a feel, but I find it so difficult.

Submission estimate: So, using the Williams example, if I submit it as a less than $250 service level, and I have mis-estimated, what will the grader do? Should I encourage a generous grade by paying the higher freight?

Your experiences:
Do you get an impartial grade whether you under or over estimate?
Does the grader contact you if you have submitted too low? too high?

Some have advised to estimate enough to cover your investment. I get that, but I'm not dealing. I'm collecting. I want an accurate grade and that's all.

I have a lot of cards (M116's and T202s as an example), whose grade is going to be a guess either because arguable condition or tampering I can't see. And the gap could be wide in $ and grade.

I just don't know what to do. If I submit a nice M116 Plank thinking it's a 6 or 7, but I get a grade of 4 for reasons I can't see, the cost to grade is big. And would they ever give it an 8 if deserved but submitted as a mid-level service.

HELP!

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by scomeau

I want an accurate grade and that's all.

HELP!

If this is truly all you want send them to SGC. As far as pricing each card on the submission form put in the price you would need to replace it. The card is raw now so graded prices are irrelevant. It really is that easy. Good luck on whatever you decide.

[scomeau]

Ben,

Your reply is good advice - particularly if I had recently purchased a card at a specific price. I took many of my 50's cards out of the wax back then. How do I assign a value to that?

The grading subjectivity is so tough to anticipate. The perfect answer would be that they take a card, grade it, and then charge you an appropriate fee. Of course this could clearly be accused of grading high to maximize their revenues. I don't think that's their goal. When I have a chance, I meet with graders at shows, and they are helpful, but not always possible for me.

I just wonder what the grader does when they get a '6' submitted as if it were a '4'. And/or what the grader does if they get a '4' submitted as a '6'.

I think the graders aren't quick with advice because there's no good answer that preserves their integrity.

I think the system is bad, but it is institutionalized, and I don't see it changing.

[Jobu]

Don't risk going too high. If you have underestimated the value of the card(s), the grader will call you to tell you that you owe them more money. I have never heard of anyone getting a call offering a refund bc they could have submitted at a lower tier (doesn't mean it hasn't happened). Also, don't put down 1/3rd of what they are clearly worth and piss someone off. These guys understand pricing and the impact grades have on that - they also know an honest pricing effort on your part.

[scomeau]

That sounds like a good common sense approach. Good to hear that they'll sometimes alert if too low rather than grade it artificially low.

So, if I have a card that could be a 4, 5, or 6. Better estimate a 5 and submit accordingly. If it's a 7, they'll probably contact me. If it is a 7, I'm happy to pay. They have reasons not to subvert their consistency for a few bucks.

Thanks.

[scomeau]

Took me a while to remember who Jobu is. Ha! Good pick!

[swarmee]

No no no, price it as a RAW card in the same condition, not an already graded card. Check eBay sale values or COMC list prices to see raw card values. The replacement value of a raw card is a raw card.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by scomeau

Ben,

Your reply is good advice - particularly if I had recently purchased a card at a specific price. I took many of my 50's cards out of the wax back then. How do I assign a value to that?

The grading subjectivity is so tough to anticipate. The perfect answer would be that they take a card, grade it, and then charge you an appropriate fee. Of course this could clearly be accused of grading high to maximize their revenues. I don't think that's their goal. When I have a chance, I meet with graders at shows, and they are helpful, but not always possible for me.

I just wonder what the grader does when they get a '6' submitted as if it were a '4'. And/or what the grader does if they get a '4' submitted as a '6'.

I think the graders aren't quick with advice because there's no good answer that preserves their integrity.

I think the system is bad, but it is institutionalized, and I don't see it changing.

This is what I have done and yes it is time consuming. I look up each card on eBay advanced search sold listings. I have them listed low to high in price and when I start seeing cards in the same condition that is my value.

[xplainer]

Originally Posted by scomeau

Need help w estimating strategy: I'm struggling. I want to grade a bunch of items pre & post war and neither grading company has replied to my question via email. I'm not trying to cheap out, but I don't want to spend $40 for what turns out to be a $99 card.

The problem: Even with PSA's SMR, VCP, eBay as sources for pricing, prices are all over the map based on grade. Makes sense, but grading is hard and it seems to change. I often don't know how to differentiate cards that are between 4 and 7 or higher grades. A 4 from a 7 - probably easy enough, but sometimes 2 or 3 grades are possible.

I'm no pro, but the value difference between 5 and 6 for say, a '56 Topps Williams, is pretty big $180 vs $275. Small potatoes if just one card, but how about a '55 Clemente or a hundred 1956 Topps? I can't tell what I might get back even when I apply PSA's published criteria - such as 'minor edge chipping' vs 'slight notching chipping'. What is 'some loss of gloss' compared to 'average loss of gloss'? Maybe you see a million examples and have a feel, but I find it so difficult.

Submission estimate: So, using the Williams example, if I submit it as a less than $250 service level, and I have mis-estimated, what will the grader do? Should I encourage a generous grade by paying the higher freight?

Your experiences:
Do you get an impartial grade whether you under or over estimate?
Does the grader contact you if you have submitted too low? too high?

Some have advised to estimate enough to cover your investment. I get that, but I'm not dealing. I'm collecting. I want an accurate grade and that's all.

I have a lot of cards (M116's and T202s as an example), whose grade is going to be a guess either because arguable condition or tampering I can't see. And the gap could be wide in $ and grade.

I just don't know what to do. If I submit a nice M116 Plank thinking it's a 6 or 7, but I get a grade of 4 for reasons I can't see, the cost to grade is big. And would they ever give it an 8 if deserved but submitted as a mid-level service.

HELP!

OK. Being careful not to sound like an A-hole, but you are not ready to send cards off to PSA or SGC. You need to get a handle on what you have, and the grade you expect to get back.

Submit at the graded level the "raw card is valued", not the hoped for graded.

Sorry, with no disrespect intended, you are not ready to submit. A little homework yet to do.

-Jimmy

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by xplainer

OK. Being careful not to sound like an A-hole, but you are not ready to send cards off to PSA or SGC. You need to get a handle on what you have, and the grade you expect to get back.

Submit at the graded level the "raw card is valued", not the hoped for graded.

Sorry, with no disrespect intended, you are not ready to submitted. A little homework yet to do.

-Jimmy

I agree Jimmy. I think it is more of trying to make something way harder than it really is. Very common on first submissions.

[scomeau]

Haha, Jim. I don't think you are a dark body part! I get what you say, but I will disagree.

I have looked at hundreds of graded cards in my own hands, and frankly, if I were to guess the grade without looking, I would be one grade off at least 50% of the time. And I see many dealers on eBay with great feedback who very frequently argue that the card in question could easily be a grade higher. To me that means even the 'experts frequently disagree. So, maybe I'm not as green as you think. Haha.

I look at hundreds of examples on eBay and in auctions, too. Scans on eBay can't possibly show enough detail to hit a grade on the nose. Even graded cards are difficult to rate with a scan. The auctions have a lot of credibility, but they are so often selling stuff in the stratosphere which most of us can't relate.

I think some of the ambiguity is due, in part, to times changing related to card values/grades. Certain cards or sets gain or lose popularity, and I think there is an inescapable bias based on card 'heat'. Hot cards are scrutinized more closely and grades seem to be more conservative.

The circular logic is pretty obvious: I'm asking for a grade, but have to do my own grading to get it. And SGC does not publish their criteria as far as I can see. PSA does, but it's very subjective.

So, I think my judgment quandary of not being able to pin a grade may be some ignorance, but I really think it's pretty valid.

Do you get back grades you anticipated most of the time?

[scomeau]

Ben,

So which is it? I haven't prepared enough as Jim suggests, or I'm over thinking and complicating the process too much.

My gripe is that grades are difficult to pin, and therefore price estimates (service levels) are therefore hard to choose. And it can really matter!

I'm not saying there's an easy solution, but doesn't that ring true? The graders grade with impunity and usually offer no particular explanations.

[xplainer]

OK, it isn't about igorance. Sorry I came across like that.
Look here:http://www.sgccard.com/GradingScale.aspx

Best of luck.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by scomeau

Ben,

So which is it? I haven't prepared enough as Jim suggests, or I'm over thinking and complicating the process too much.

My gripe is that grades are difficult to pin, and therefore price estimates (service levels) are therefore hard to choose. And it can really matter!

I'm not saying there's an easy solution, but doesn't that ring true? The graders grade with impunity and usually offer no particular explanations.

You are not prepared because you are over thinking and greatly complicating the process. I done it my first time and would bet most others have also. The card value part is really not that strict. Go to eBay sold listings and find something similar(does not have to be exact) raw condition and use that price. Graded values mean absolutely nothing.

SGC grading levels for cards are $250, $500, $2000, $5000, ect. they could care less how you value the card unless you try sending in a $2000 card at a $500 grading level. So say you have a mid grade 54 Topps Ted Williams and send it in at the $500 level. They could care less if you value it at $1 or $499. I hope this helps.

[swarmee]

Didn't we just have this conversation?
http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=232522

[scomeau]

Jimmy and Ben,

That helps. Thank you. Somehow, I missed those criteria from SGC.

I guess it was Beckett's customer service that told me they don't share their grading criteria. I took them at their word.

Have you ever had PSA or SGC get back to you indicating you underestimated? Just wondering if they really do or if it's an urban (Faber?) myth.

Ben does have a point about me making a small mountain out of a mole hill, though. I have been trying to consider whether to become a gold or platinum member of either or both while trying to take into account the potential monthly specials, insurance fees, and my grading headache. I will have a cocktail and try to chill.

Thanks guys. If we agree or not, I enjoy the forum and you took the time.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by scomeau

Jimmy and Ben,

That helps. Thank you. Somehow, I missed those criteria from SGC.

I guess it was Beckett's customer service that told me they don't share their grading criteria. I took them at their word.

Have you ever had PSA or SGC get back to you indicating you underestimated? Just wondering if they really do or if it's an urban (Faber?) myth.

Ben does have a point about me making a small mountain out of a mole hill, though. I have been trying to consider whether to become a gold or platinum member of either or both while trying to take into account the potential monthly specials, insurance fees, and my grading headache. I will have a cocktail and try to chill.

Thanks guys. If we agree or not, I enjoy the forum and you took the time.

I am a gold club member(SGC) because of their monthly specials. To be honest I use SGC for my personal collection because they really do a better job of grading. Plus their slabs look so much better than the others. If selling I get in on a PSA group submission.

Yes if you sent something in way over the value of the submission level you will get a call. I have had Matt(great guy) at SCG call me a couple times about different issues.

[scomeau]

Hi John,

Yes, in a way, but I didn't get a lot of specific advice on how to sensibly estimate. Particularly when a one-grade jump can be a BIG jump. If I'm submitting an '87 Ripken, I'm not so crazy.

If, as Ben suggests, if I were looking at a raw 54 Bowman Williams (and I have one!), I find it hard to pick the level for submission.

Simple as that. So I was looking for a strategy. One fellow suggested that if a card sits on the fence, pick the lower rail and if my choice is too conservative, the grader will ask me to reconsider. Or so he says.

I would love to know if frequent submitters are usually disappointed, satisfied, or thrilled with the results, and how that might affect their submission.

Sorry if I'm beating a dead horse.

[scomeau]

Ben,

Great input. I met Matt when last in Boca. Good to know he reached out.

I think I agree with your assessment, too. SGC for my wall and grand children. PSA to sell unwanted material.

Thanks.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by scomeau

Hi John,

Yes, in a way, but I didn't get a lot of specific advice on how to sensibly estimate. Particularly when a one-grade jump can be a BIG jump. If I'm submitting an '87 Ripken, I'm not so crazy.

If, as Ben suggests, if I were looking at a raw 54 Bowman Williams (and I have one!), I find it hard to pick the level for submission.

Simple as that. So I was looking for a strategy. One fellow suggested that if a card sits on the fence, pick the lower rail and if my choice is too conservative, the grader will ask me to reconsider. Or so he says.

I would love to know if frequent submitters are usually disappointed, satisfied, or thrilled with the results, and how that might affect their submission.

Sorry if I'm beating a dead horse.

After submitting a few times you will get an idea of what to expect. Usually if you are surprised it is because you missed something on the card. I find SGC to be more consistent. I have both 54 Williams, a complete 59 Fleer Ted Williams set and a bunch of other cards there now. I wrote down my guesses on the 59 set and will compare when they get back.

[Bill77]

Just to get more of an idea as to what you are thinking of grading some scans of a card or two would help you get a little more info. But just using the examples from your 1st post I would think that you could submit your better cards at either SGC's Grand Slam level or maybe even the Express level as the cards mention in your 1st post are in that price range ($500-$2000).

If I'm way off I'm sure someone will say something.

[scomeau]

Ben,

The '59 set is one of my favorites of that era. I like the red Mantle and the blue Musial, among others. Great players and nice design and colors.

I have a bunch I opened myself. Of course, I crunched most of them! No matter, though.

[scomeau]

Ben, Oops, I thought you meant the Topps '59. I have a couple of the Williams set.

[scomeau]

Bill,

I see what you mean, but the Plank for instance, is just a little short. So, it might be an 8 or an 'A'. If I submit it cheap and it's good, I hope they would not grade it low due to my service level. If I submit it as a 'Walk Thru' ($2,000 - 9,999), it could cost me $200 for an 'A'. In general, that's my dilemma.

Thanks for your help.

[Bill77]

For prices on the Plank I was going by these http://www.ebay.com/itm/1911-M116-Sp...8AAOSwRQlXeThc and http://www.ebay.com/itm/1910-M116-Sp...wAAOSwPCVX63Zd
Which shows that value like grades are also subjective.

Bill Avery

[Rhotchkiss]

Dumb question- i assume PSA will charge same price to grade an SGC or BVG card as it does to grade a raw card?

[EvilKing00]

Id give price on raw card cause thats what u have. Id also use sgc

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Dumb question- i assume PSA will charge same price to grade an SGC or BVG card as it does to grade a raw card?

Yes, it's considered a crossover submission. If it's the only card you're submitting, it will cost the same as if it was raw. Say the card is a BVG 6; you can have PSA only take the card out and slab it if it meets your PSA grade requested. So if you would lose money on a PSA 4.5, but make money on a PSA 5, you can set 5 as the min grade for crossover and PSA won't crack it out unless it is at least a PSA 5.

I submitted 10 cards from SGC/BVG to PSA a few months ago and 5 of 10 crossed over at the same grade, while two lost a half point. The other 3 didn't meet the min grade I requested and were returned in the original holder.

The additional cost is that you can't submit them in a group with a single return shipping. You have to pay separate return shipping if you submit a raw card along with a graded card. A card already in a PSA holder you want to try to bump would be a "review" submission.

[scooter729]

I submitted a bunch of 1986 Fleer basketball cards last month as a bulk order (under $100 per card assumed value). One was Karl Malone, which I figured was an 8-9 ($50-$75); it came back as a 10, which is $750+.

This is a good example that they grade the card blindly of the submission level. On the flip side, I've subbed cards at $500+ level and got slammed on grades.

So, give it a fair estimate - they're not going to nitpick and worry about precise values unless you're sending Mantle rookies in on bulk common orders.

[toledo_mudhen]

I've found that when I get a card that I THINK is a 7 then assume it is a 6. Never disappointed this way and sometimes pleasantly surprised. Also SGC is rock solid consistent - whether you like it or not.

[scomeau]

John,

Interesting results. From a business perspective, I guess you would count that 10-card crossover as a win - but only because most feel that PSA slabs are more respected in the market? If not, I would have been disappointed.

Obviously an expensive and inconclusive stunt, but it would be interesting to crack those 10 and submit the to PSA raw to see what you would get in return.

[scomeau]

Lonnie,

Nice to preserve mental health!

[scomeau]

Scott,

I'm seeing more people with that type of result, and it's reassuring.

[Rhotchkiss]

Swarmee, thanks for the detailed response. I guess it comes down to a business decision whether to cross over and pay the money (knowing you may end up keeping in old case or accepting a downgrade). I have about 10+/- "big boy" cards in SGC holders (all SCG 70+ HOFers, most of which are T206 and all of which are worth between $1,000 - $10k a piece in their current holders). Even though i am not a seller, I feel they are worth more in a PSA folder (even though I feel SGC is just as good on T206s), which means its a question of whether I want to spend $2k+ seeking one or more upgrades/straight crossovers that justify the expense. Regardless, I appreciate the insights.

[glynparson]

For as low a cost as possible for an insured value you are comfortable with. If you need to be charged more they will contact you. If you overpay you are doubtful to be refunded.

[smtjoy]

Lots of good advice, I have had thousands of cards graded and only one time got a call that my value was off. Be fair but i also usually value it 1-2 points lower than what I think it will grade (which to me is more the raw value).

I also highly recommend sending in a trial 10 card or so sub just to get a feel. Most first time subs get hammered (mine was brutal) as you over estimate the condition, estimate grades first, send them in then when returned re-examined see where they differed.

I also highly recommend getting a 10 x loupe and a black-light to help judge condition better.

I prefer SGC for my collection as I think they are more consistent and a ton easier to submit to, I use PSA for 1950's and newer cards I plan to flip/sell (SGC for all pre war).

Good luck!

[scomeau]

SMTJOY

Good points all. There seems to be a somewhat prevailing belief that PSA is better for post war, SGC for older stuff.

As for a loop and black light, you're right even though I hate to go there. I did buy a lot of raw stuff years ago and am disappointed that so many are 'A'. Back in Teletrade days, you couldn't break a seal to examine, and general trust was higher (maybe not deserved!).

[Leon]

+1 Good advice

Originally Posted by glynparson

For as low a cost as possible for an insured value you are comfortable with. If you need to be charged more they will contact you. If you overpay you are doubtful to be refunded.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by scomeau

I think the system is bad.

Well, you could, I don't know....leave them raw.

[PhillipAbbott79]

Originally Posted by bnorth

If this is truly all you want send them to SGC. As far as pricing each card on the submission form put in the price you would need to replace it. The card is raw now so graded prices are irrelevant. It really is that easy. Good luck on whatever you decide.

I think Becket is gaining ground on respect. Their standards have stiffened and their pricing I believe is cheaper than PSA. I think they have a flat fee if I am not mistaken and its not that much, where the majority of the cost is insurance to ship the card back. Unsure about SGC. I will not use SGC at all.

I asked Beckett why I had to commit to determining value before knowing if something was trimmed or not, and never got an answer, as the card was in fact trimmed(it was a re-grade). You could tell he really did not want to answer that question. In all, to get a 10,000 dollar card graded and shipped, insured, it would have been something like a hundred and change. Uninsured something like under 30 bucks if I recall.