No HOF for Dahlen, Price Drop?

[The Nasty Nati]

Now that we know Bill Dahlen did not make the cut for the Hall of Fame yesterday and I believe that was his last chance, do you think the prices of his cards will drop? For years he's been priced at the lower tiered HOFer level for high hopes he would eventually get in....I have a feeling his prices will drop.

And it was interesting to see an explosion of T206 Dahlen cards on ebay come up days before the decision.

[GregMitch34]

The other odd Dahlen thing (and this is true for some other cards) is the vast difference in pricing of the Brooklyn and Boston cards. The pop reports just don't sustain that big a gap. I wonder if anyone would like to mention OTHER cards or variations (not in backs) they feel have a certain aura of scarcity that doesn't quite hold up in the pop reports. Not saying they shouldn't get some premium but not as much as they seem to get.............

[The Nasty Nati]

The Brooklyn version is definitely more rare. Most likely the reason why the pop reports have similar numbers is because more people are willing to spend the grading cost to encapsulate the Brooklyn version than the Boston one. So there's probably more Brooklyn submissions than the Boston version.

[Cozumeleno]

Originally Posted by The Nasty Nati

The Brooklyn version is definitely more rare. Most likely the reason why the pop reports have similar numbers is because more people are willing to spend the grading cost to encapsulate the Brooklyn version than the Boston one. So there's probably more Brooklyn submissions than the Boston version.

This - I completely agree.

[Joshchisox08]

Doubtful he's HOF worthy and his Brooklyn card is priced as so. Ironically more so than actual HOF players.

[GregMitch34]

That sounds like guess work--that it's vastly more scarce. Self-fulfilling wish if you happen to own the Brooklyns? So many cards, of all grades, are graded today that this sounds like an outmoded argument. The difference in numbers between them is very modest at PSA, a little more at SGC but still far from sustaining the massive value gap. I predict the gap will shrink quite a bit. It's just too easy to get a Brooklyn at eBay or AHs.

[CMIZ5290]

Prices should not go down because he was never in the Hall to begin with. I actually didn't think his T206 values would go up that much even if he made the Hall (which he should have)

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by The Nasty Nati

Now that we know Bill Dahlen did not make the cut for the Hall of Fame yesterday and I believe that was his last chance, do you think the prices of his cards will drop? For years he's been priced at the lower tiered HOFer level for high hopes he would eventually get in....I have a feeling his prices will drop.

And it was interesting to see an explosion of T206 Dahlen cards on ebay come up days before the decision.

His Brooklyn card is significantly higher than most HOFers, let alone lower tier HOFers. There are some lower tier HOFers in the $1200-1400 range for a PSA 7, a PSA 7 Dahlen just sold for $5700 at REA....

[The Nasty Nati]

Personally I think his prices will drop in the coming years because he has no chance of getting in now. His value was always around the possible HOF hype.

He just doesn't have the same allure as someone like Hal Chase who's T206s are priced rather similiar (maybe excluding the Pink or Trophy variation). Dahlen's T206 Boston cards will drop. The Brooklyn card will always been pricier though more for their rarity than anything.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by The Nasty Nati

Personally I think his prices will drop in the coming year because he has no chance of getting in now.

He's priced at around the same for T206 Hal Chase cards (maybe excluding the Pink and Trophy variation) but I think that his Boston cards will drop. The Brooklyn card will always been pricier though.

I'm assuming you mean his Boston version card being around the same as Chase dark and white cap, not the Brooklyn version...

[The Nasty Nati]

Originally Posted by CMIZ5290

I'm assuming you mean his Boston version card being around the same as Chase dark and white cap, not the Brooklyn version...

Yeah that was confusing, that's what I meant.

[GregMitch34]

Again, the Dahlen Brooklyn card is NOT a rarity--PSA alone has graded 230 so far...

[judsonhamlin]

And his T205 card remains among the slightly tougher cards in that set, so scarcity should be enough for that card to hold its value as well.

[paul]

Why is everyone assuming Dahlen will never get in? He will likely be on the ballot again in 3 years.

[Topps206]

I refuse to believe it's his last chance. They must not give up.

Monster cards are not cheap. His ones go for a nice penny still.

[Topps206]

Originally Posted by Joshchisox08

Doubtful he's HOF worthy and his Brooklyn card is priced as so. Ironically more so than actual HOF players.

What would lead you to doubt his worthiness? Is it because non-historians voted him down?

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by paul

Why is everyone assuming Dahlen will never get in? He will likely be on the ballot again in 3 years.

+1...But I did think this year was the best and most likely chance.

[Topps206]

So long as he garners a minimum of 50% or higher, I think he has a shot.

[Cozumeleno]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

That sounds like guess work--that it's vastly more scarce. Self-fulfilling wish if you happen to own the Brooklyns? So many cards, of all grades, are graded today that this sounds like an outmoded argument. The difference in numbers between them is very modest at PSA, a little more at SGC but still far from sustaining the massive value gap. I predict the gap will shrink quite a bit. It's just too easy to get a Brooklyn at eBay or AHs.

I'm not sure the pop reports really indicate that it's overpriced.

Currently, there are about 50% of the O'Hara and Demmitt St. Louis variations (PSA) as there are of their New York versions. The Dahlen Brooklyn accounts for about 80% of the Boston version.

The O'Hara/Demmitt STLs are about 40X-50X over their NY versions (You can get a PSA 1 NY of those cards for about $20-$25 as opposed to about $900-$1,000 for the STL in PSA 1).

Conversely, the Dahlen has only about a markup of what, 10X? Obviously the O'Hara/Demmitt STLs are significantly rarer. But the premium for those is far greater than the pop reports suggest they should be when you compare then with the Dahlen pop reports.

[Jantz]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

The other odd Dahlen thing (and this is true for some other cards) is the vast difference in pricing of the Brooklyn and Boston cards. The pop reports just don't sustain that big a gap. I wonder if anyone would like to mention OTHER cards or variations (not in backs) they feel have a certain aura of scarcity that doesn't quite hold up in the pop reports. Not saying they shouldn't get some premium but not as much as they seem to get.............

There are a dozen or so Greg that are tough to find even with "common" backs.

[sreader3]

Both T206 Dahlens are among the most difficult subjects in the set, with Brooklyn being scarcer. The big joke price/difficulty wise, in my view, is Mr. Titus.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by sreader3

Both T206 Dahlens are among the most difficult subjects in the set, with Brooklyn being scarcer. The big joke price/difficulty wise, in my view, is Mr. Titus.

His mustache sells!!

[Joshchisox08]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

Again, the Dahlen Brooklyn card is NOT a rarity--PSA alone has graded 230 so far...

It seems like one of those cards that would be very hard to get even in a low grade by collectors on a real strict budget. I don't think I've ever seen a Brooklyn Dahlen under $500

[Cozumeleno]

Originally Posted by Joshchisox08

It seems like one of those cards that would be very hard to get even in a low grade by collectors on a real strict budget. I don't think I've ever seen a Brooklyn Dahlen under $500

They are relatively hard to find in lesser condition but you can get them cheaper than that. Was one of the hardest cards to find for me for sure. Often on eBay they are pricey because the few posted are usually in better condition. But here's a trimmed one that's up there now for about $200.

[GregMitch34]

Again, you are referring to pricing as indicating they are scarce. In fact, there are generally several in lower grade available at eBay most times. I remember when Mike Powers prices were heading for the heights, then as more cards got graded you could see that it was barely more scarce than average. There are many other examples. All of those cards should get SOME premium but what they've gotten is way out of line, and will fall as pop reports continue to be stronger measure.

[Cozumeleno]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

Again, you are referring to pricing as indicating they are scarce. In fact, there are generally several in lower grade available at eBay most times. I remember when Mike Powers prices were heading for the heights, then as more cards got graded you could see that it was barely more scarce than average. There are many other examples. All of those cards should get SOME premium but what they've gotten is way out of line, and will fall as pop reports continue to be stronger measure.

Several low-grade Dahlen Brooklyns on eBay most times? Not from what I've seen at all.

There's a total of one up there right now (Raw low-grade or below a Graded 3). Yes, there were several in the past couple of weeks with this HOF frenzy, but outside of that under normal circumstances, they are not easy to find there. In fact, if you search the completed items on eBay, there was only one other one up there from mid-August to today (again, outside of the past couple of weeks). I was personally looking for one for a couple of months before that and came up completely empty. Nothing on eBay. Posted in the B/S/T, to no avail. I had to resort to searching old Net54 threads and finding a seller who had previously listed one.

I'm not saying there's nothing true in what you say with regards to the rarity of the card overall, but I'll have to disagree on the eBay thing. The recent history before the HOF talk have shown them to be relatively difficult to find there.

Then again, maybe our definition of 'low-grade' is the difference here.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by sreader3

Both T206 Dahlens are among the most difficult subjects in the set, with Brooklyn being scarcer. The big joke price/difficulty wise, in my view, is Mr. Titus.

Agree on Titus other than high grades. Near impossible to get in a PSA 7 or higher....