1914 Cracker Jack Bubble Burst?

[ErikV]

I'd like to get the board's take on the current Cracker Jack market.

Unless one has lived in a cave for the last 4 months or so, we all
know how the 1914 Cracker Jack craze has hit a fever pitch. I've
monitored this market pretty closely during this span. I've spoken
to a couple of board members about this, and it seems to me there's
been a gradual change as of recently.

It seems to me that since the National concluded - 12 days ago -
a rash of Cracker Jack cards have hit ebay and for some bizarre
reason aren't selling. I'm aware of the rare Frank Smith #90, was
listed on ebay, then, followed by a price reduction ended without selling.
Another rare Ray Caldwell #129 got listed on ebay. It too has had a
price reduction and has not sold. A number of other cards including
WaJo, Schalk, Lajoie, Clarke and a number of commons have failed to sell.

A few nights ago Sterling auctioned a number of CJs. While the prices
ended rather healthy, I was just a bit surprised as they seemed just a
little lower than I expected, given the market being as hot as it has been.

I've also seen a number of '14 CJs listed on the B/S/T board fail to sell.
Yes, a couple of days ago a nice Ed Walsh PSA 4, Zimmermann SGC 40,
Scott SGC 30 all sold, but many others have sat idle for a few days now.
It does appear that the mid-grades 4s,5s, and 6s such as Hummell, LaPorte
and Leach did well. So, I ask the board, has the market begun to cool some?

Opinions anyone?

ErikV

[GregMitch34]

You're going too much on the BINs at ebay--auctions there this week have done very well with records prices across the board for "5s" and 4.5 commons (860 to 1380). There was a "2" common that went up at BIN today and sold within 20 minutes for 650. And so on. Yes, most of the ridiculous priced BINs have not sold but that's to be expected. As you noted, the Sterling prices quite strong. Yes, a lot of sales show that a plateau may have been reached--but look at the height of the plateau! Couldn't expect prices to keep doubling and tripling much longer...I must say, my combined pop report (now updated) may have had effect in helping people distinguish between fairly easy to get and very scarce CJs, certainly prices show discrimination (even if folks still paying too much in many cases).

[kamikidEFFL]

I don't collect CJ's but always loved the art work. But as for pricing it seems anything CJ from 14 is still hot. I agree with what Greg said the cards can only go so high. They can't keeping doubling etc. only wish I bought the 14's years ago to make some money now.

1914 Cracker Jacks still appear to be red hot based on what I'm seeing. Will it last? Don't know.

[GregMitch34]

Awaiting bit of surge for the 1915s. Not same thing, as so many more of them, but cleaner cards generally and you can actually buy a 7 or 8 which look brand new. Collectors sure to move on to them as 14s stay high...

[ErikV]

Greg,

You say I'm going too much on BINs at ebay. I beg to differ. I thought I articulated
my stance pretty well. The majority of the BINs have a best offer attached. In
many cases, offers were declined. Many of the sale prices in the B/S/T section
are suggested prices, and can be negotiated -especially when a group of cards
are purchased. I never put an expectation on the prices doubling or tripling.

Jesse and Dan, do either of you have any articuable facts to show that these cards
are still hot?

Just to clarify, I'm not denying that these cards are still in demand. I seem to
think that based on the above mentioned observations, I think these cards have
begun to level off some. Perhaps those who are collecting this set already have
the cards that are not selling, thus the appearance of a slowdown of sorts.

[usernamealreadytaken]

Articulable facts? Are we talking cards or justifying a Terry stop?

I tend to agree - as BB King would say, the thrill is gone. Although caught up a bit myself, I have backed off; remembering that a mid-range PSA 2 will again be had for under $100... Buy high, sell low...

These were both sold in the last week:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1914-Cracker...item51c177a263

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1914-Cracker...item2ed57d7a1f

[GregMitch34]

As I said, virtually every card has earned a record price in past two weeks of auctions, eBay and auction houses. If that's not "still hot" I don't know what is. And that's a "fact." If doubles or triples in price in just a few months, and then stays at that level I'd say that's still "hot" even if leveling off. Hardly a "burst bubble."

[kamikidEFFL]

Love of the game auctions that end tonight are proving that the 14's are still bringing in some decent #'s.

For example

1914 Chief Bender SGC50 is currently sitting at $950. Last time one sold was an SGC45, last Recently sold on ebay for $795. That was in May. If you add the 20% BP to the one being auctioned now then it will easily sell over $1100. Love of the Game has a few others so will see if after tonight if they still are hot. I mean they are still getting a ton of interest.

Now to be honest I think that people are just buzzing about them right now. Just these topics alone anytime someone brings up 14 CJ's people have them in mind. Ill agree that they aren't crazy priced like they were a month ago but they still are bringing some premium prices.

[kamikidEFFL]

I checked the final price and it sold for close to $1400 on that Bender. That shows you that they still have some fire power for the better grade ones in my eye.

[uniship]

3 factors that seem to point to future lowering of prices:

1 - About 200 new '14 cracker jacks have been graded in just the last 4 months or so, that indicates to me there is still a ton out there raw and pops will not only increase, but probably at a relatively quick pace compared to past few years.

2 - It seems everyone and their brother is looking to cash in on the increased prices, so the the availability of these cards for sale has to be near an all-time high right now and will likely continue if prices don't come down to earth

3 - because of that many set collectors are more easily getting over the hump and will not be needing as many cards.

Unless a fresh new class of set collectors enters the market (and that's not a given due to high cost of entry - even at lowered prices), I don't know how these prices do not come down to more reasonable levels in the coming months and years. Then again, it is perhaps the greatest set in all of card collecting (another topic) so who really knows.

my 2 cents.

[GregMitch34]

You may be right. I have only argued that they have not come down at all now and might still be going up. That Bender SGC 4 that went for over 1300 at LOG last night again sets record for that, as do most other sales. I know REA has amazing batch coming up (I have a card in it) and LOG had preview at White Plains with another dozen, from a McGraw 7 (a lot of McGraws out there) to a Maranville 3 and Cicotte 2.5 (much, much tougher).

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

I think what you're seeing now is a defined segmentation of the market with long time collectors still looking to complete the set in their "grading range". The high end collectors are still making strategic purchases but have had to pay more for grades 4+ as the newer collectors have come in over the last 9 months and have generally pushed up prices in all grades with lower grades getting bumped the highest.
I think most new collectors start with the lower grades and then look to upgrade over time so as long as the set gets a steady flow of new collectors, I think prices will continue to stabilize and even increase over time but slower for the higher end examples.
Just curious for some of the newer collectors like myself..what's your average cost per card in your set? Mine's currently at $657.

[ErikV]

Did anyone happen to notice the rather large group of 1914 Cracker Jacks
that sold on ebay Saturday night? Did the prices seem low? A very decent
looking PSA 1 Slim Sallee sold for ONLY $416!!! A couple of other PSA 1s
sold in the $130-$150 range. The Ray Schalk PSA 2 sold for a very reasonable
$493. Is it fair to say that the Cracker Jack rave has passed and they're
cooling off now?

ErikV

Originally Posted by ErikV

Did anyone happen to notice the rather large group of 1914 Cracker Jacks
that sold on ebay Saturday night? Did the prices seem low? A very decent
looking PSA 1 Slim Sallee sold for ONLY $416!!! A couple of other PSA 1s
sold in the $130-$150 range. The Ray Schalk PSA 2 sold for a very reasonable
$493. Is it fair to say that the Cracker Jack rave has passed and they're
cooling off now?

ErikV

I think ending auctions late Saturday night is always a bad idea. Unless you are a buyer and have your eye on one of those cards and also happen to have a 10% off ebay coupon that expires the next day. Then it's cool.

[tiger8mush]

50% lower and I'll be a buyer again