The Sad Tale of Matt Harvey

[barrysloate]

If you're a Mets fan, or just a fan of great baseball, the news that Matt Harvey probably needs Tommy John surgery comes as devastating news. He is unquestionably the team's most valuable property, and now he may miss the entire 2014 season.

It's strange, because last month the Mets tried going to a six man rotation to take some of the wear and tear off their starting pitching. So what was the result? Three of the six pitchers- Harvey, Hefner, and Mejia- are facing arm surgery. What's going on here?

Doesn't it seem like the more these guys are pampered, with watchful pitch counts and inning limits, the more they are getting hurt?

[Leon]

I wonder if they had/have improper training? Maybe they were being told to throw too hard too quickly or something? They are professionals but it could happen. It's hard to believe so many on one team at one time are hurt with the same condition.

[frankbmd]

Robin Roberts (305)
Early Wynn (290)
Warren Spahn (382)
Don Sutton (178)
Gaylord Perry (303)
Tom Seaver (231)
Nolan Ryan (222)

All of them pitched over 4500 innings.
I wonder what their pitch counts were in all those complete games (in parentheses).
For the younger generation a complete game is when the starting pitcher and the closer have the same name.

The highest active pitcher on the list
Andy Pettitte at 3268 innings

and the second highest
Mark Buehrle at 2851 innings

Even Tommy John pitched 4710 innings.

It does make you wonder about the current crop of pitchers and the pampered development process.

We seem to be headed for the day when there will be no pitchers qualified statistically for Cooperstown and with the PED thing perhaps no batters either.

And to make matters worse, with the impending advent of instant replay and challenges, we probably will not have any umpires that qualify either.

[barrysloate]

I was thinking the same thing Frank. Pitchers from a generation or two ago pitched complete or near complete games every fourth day and they pitched for fifteen years without a major injury. Now they are being coddled yet so many of them are getting hurt. Something appears to be wrong.

The Mets were watching Harvey carefully and were thinking of shutting him down sometime in September- they're a hundred games out of first so why risk anything- but he did say his elbow felt tender and they did nothing about it. In his last start he gave up thirteen hits in like six innings so I have to think he was already hurt. What a shame. No guarantee he will be the same.

[howard38]

/

[barrysloate]

Pitching is a profession fraught with risk, no doubt. The two great phenoms of the last five years were Strasburg and Harvey, and both suffered very bad injuries right out of the gate. It's a shame.

[howard38]

,

[barrysloate]

Jose Fernandez is truly amazing, and he doesn't get a whole lot of publicity, but that soon may change. I guess he will be Rookie of the Year.

[rjackson44]

barry they say maybe 2015 for his return unreal.

[howard38]

.

[David W]

Arm injuries to pitchers are nothing new.

What is new, is pitchers pitching effectively into their late 30's as they have been with the advent of pitch counts and 5 man rotations.

Here is a list of pitchers who were stars whose careers were effectively over by the early 30's who were stars or on the rise in the 60's or 70's.

I picked 1968 and went through the leader boards. For every Gaylord Perry, or Robin Roberts (who had his last big year at age 31) there are 10 guys who were overworked and had short careers.

Juan Marichal - last big season age 31 in 1969
Steve Blass - career over age 31
Don Drysdale - done at age 32
Sam McDowell - last big season age 27, K to IP ratio dropped greatly after that season
Denny McClain - last big season age 25
Mel Stottlemyre- done at age 32
Dean Chance - done at 30, last big season age 27
Ray Culp - done at 31
Jim Merritt- last big season age 26
Pat Jarvis - last big year age 29
Jim Maloney - last big year age 28
Bill Hands - last big year age 31
Bill Singer - last big year age 29


How about 1973
Ron Bryant - done at age 25
Don Gullett - done at age 27
Dave Roberts - last big year age 31
Tommy John - career should have been over at age 31
Andy Messersmith - last big year age 29
Carl Morton - last big year age 29
Catfish Hunter - last big year age 30
Joe Coleman - last big year age 27
Vida Blue - last big year age 30
Jim Colborn - last big year age 31
Bill Lee - last big year age 32
Dave McNally - last big year age 31


Others who come to mind with short careers - Wayne Garland, Gary Nolan. Larry Dierker, all done before 30.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by howard38

Surely either him or Puig. A great year for Cuban defectors.

Oops! Forget about Puig. I think he'll get it.

[RichardSimon]

Originally Posted by howard38

That it is. Hopefully the same fate won't befall Jose Fernandez. He might be better than both of them.

On the other end of the spectrum Clay Kershaw who is the same age as Strasburg was on a strict pitch count for his first three seasons and now may be the best pitcher in baseball.

Interesting thing about the pitch count.
The day the Harvey injury was announced I was watching SNY (Mets network) and Bob Ojeda mentioned that it is not necessarily the pitch count that matters.
It is the type of pitch that matters. The slider is the most dangerous pitch for a pitcher to throw and Harvey's slider is monstrous, traveling 90-91 mph, the fastest in baseball.
It is a pitch that tortures the arm and he probably threw 20 a game at that speed.