What pre war issue has taken the biggest price plunge over the past 12-18 months?

[bbeck]

With the economy taking its toll on the vintage card market, what one pre-war issue has taken the biggest hit over the past 12-18 months? If you exclude super low population PSA 8's my vote would be for T201's which now seem to regularly trade at 50% SMR and at times even lower, from Near Mint 7 and down. Has any relatively main stream issue taken a bigger price decline than these cards?

[Matt]

Originally Posted by bbeck

trade at 50% SMR and at times even lower from Near Mint 7and down.

The questions is a good one, but it should be noted that SMR was never accurate for most pre-war issues. It's quite possible it was trading at 50% of SMR last year as well.

[deadballera]

prices in the 1933 and 1934 Goudey issues have gone down quite a bit.

[calvindog]

T201s and 33 Goudeys have gotten clobbered.

[Leon]

D304's are way, way down....as well as a plethora of other sets.

[iggyman]

What has been mentioned, plus I would include D322's. Heck, I've picked-up a few E103's lately at what I would consider bargain prices. A few years ago, I would have had a better chance of winning Teen USA, then finding any E103 in the $100 range.

Lovely Day...

[Orioles1954]

All I can say is that I sold my Tattoo Orbit set at the right time. SGC graded commons get peanuts now.

[Orioles1954]

Is this simply an economy issue or did the huge prices drive some collectors to sell their collections early, only not to return? In other words, has the pre-war hobby as a whole shrunk over the past couple of years?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Orioles1954

Is this simply an economy issue or did the huge prices drive some collectors to sell their collections early, only not to return? In other words, has the pre-war hobby as a whole shrunk over the past couple of years?

There is absolutely no doubt a few high profile collectors (spenders) have got out of the pre-war hobby, or are at an idle at best. That being said, with the number of new registrations on this board (several today and as said, 60+ per month) it doesn't look to be shrinking to me. I think it could even be gaining some folks. Those folks might even be a little younger and not have too much discretionary income yet. My glass is half full though. Or maybe the new registrations are due to the new general chat section .....

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by Orioles1954

Is this simply an economy issue or did the huge prices drive some collectors to sell their collections early, only not to return? In other words, has the pre-war hobby as a whole shrunk over the past couple of years?

How about the FBI investigation keeping "true" auction sales down too.

[ChiefBenderForever]

It could be a shift going on where the older generation is slowly getting out and the new one is slowly getting in, and right now the majority of the new ones getting in are really only focused on T206 but will eventually branch out into other type cards. I remember it wasn't to long ago people were asking where all the E cards were and then a lot of them became available but will slowly end up back in collections making supply less. I am kind of surprised at the prices of Goudeys as it has always been a blue chip set. So another good question is will the T206 drop or go up, or just maintain. Will T206 touger back prices come back down, I don't see that happening !

[ls7plus]

I don't think cards that are truly rare and significant will ever go out of style in the long run. It's not likely that those baseball fans who are true students of the history of the game, for example, will ever forget Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays or Hank Aaron, just to name a few of the upper echelon hall-of-famers. Our hobby has followed the trends and patterns of the truly rare coin market (not the so-called investor-grade Morgan silver dollars in mint-state 65 or better, which in many cases exist in the hundreds of thousands or even millions, but instead truly rare and significant items, such as 1790's coinage, pre-1833 gold coins--most of which were melted--and trophy coins, as for example the 1894-S dime, 1913 Liberty head nickel, and 1804 silver dollar). That market became organized in the 1850's, over 120 years before ours did, and even truly significant rarities had their ups and downs over the years (see the extensive studies and writings by Q. David Bowers). When prices are down on items of this character, as Bowers said many, many times, that's a good time to buy! It does take some backbone to go against the flow and buck the market trends, however.

[nebboy]

Diamond Stars seem to be very cheap

[majordanby]

t3s continue to go down from their ridiculous 06-07 prices (when i was unfortunately buying them).

[Bilko G]

Originally Posted by Leon

Or maybe the new registrations are due to the new general chat section .....

It could also be do to you posting on FCB lately and this site getting some positive publicity from it.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Bilko G

It could also be do to you posting on FCB lately and this site getting some positive publicity from it.

Well, from the skirmish and bath I took over there, concerning my feelings on Michael Vick, I don't know . But hey, whatever brings people to pre-war is good I guess. I do feel it is like many posters on this board have said, collectors start collecting the new stuff and work their way back to things that will hold value and maybe interest a little longer. I started out, as an adult, collecting rookie HOF'ers so had plenty of 50s-60s cards, then got tired of those and worked my way back to pre-war, which I enjoy immensely.

[Touch'EmAll]

I got toasted selling a Diamond Stars Foxx PSA 8 on ebay while back - no more! No more! No more!

From now on, in this market, its only major HOF'ers in T206 set! They honestly do stand up to a bad economy better than any other.

And PSA 8 Hank Aaron's appear to still be getting decent prices (I still have my run).

Other than that - you take your life in your own hands - roll the dice - and hope your purchases don't decline in value.

A great value these days are, don't laugh, early 1970's high end graded HOF'ers. They keep the collecting urge bright, don't cost too much, and have loads of memories with Reggie Jackson, Seaver, Ryan and the crowd.

Steve

[Exhibitman]

It's the economy IMHO because the effects are too widespread to be the result of a few collectors or 'investors' bailing out.

--People who lost their jobs obviously are out.

--People whose businesses took a hit aren't buying.

--People who may not have taken any direct hits still are panicky and holding on to their wallets.

--Dealers who are undercapitalized are liquidating inventory to raise cash.

I don't think the loss of a few collectors with megabucks would act as a downdraft on the rest of the market, any more than the death of a big collector or two affect the entire card market. It's the middle class buyers who are missing.

And I'd not underestimate the side effects of VCP: many buyers won't pay more than the last sale price as reported in VCP and usually offer slightly less for Ebay BINS, which acts as a deflationary pressure on prices.

FWIW, my research on boxing card prices for the next ed. of my book shows that the market for those cards bottomed out last fall and has shown small gains since then.

[bbcard1]

I stand by what I have always said. My baseball cards are my wife's problem as she has to decide what to do with them when I'm gone.

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

It's the economy IMHO because the effects are too widespread to be the result of a few collectors or 'investors' bailing out.

--People who lost their jobs obviously are out.

--People whose businesses took a hit aren't buying.

--People who may not have taken any direct hits still are panicky and holding on to their wallets.

--Dealers who are undercapitalized are liquidating inventory to raise cash.

I don't think the loss of a few collectors with megabucks would act as a downdraft on the rest of the market, any more than the death of a big collector or two affect the entire card market. It's the middle class buyers who are missing.

And I'd not underestimate the side effects of VCP: many buyers won't pay more than the last sale price as reported in VCP and usually offer slightly less for Ebay BINS, which acts as a deflationary pressure on prices.

FWIW, my research on boxing card prices for the next ed. of my book shows that the market for those cards bottomed out last fall and has shown small gains since then.

Good analysis.

[Fred]

Good points Adam, our thoughts are "in the same corner".

I try to keep things in perspective. I'm not buying this stuff as an investment. I buy this stuff because I enjoy it. Honestly, I'm really enjoying watching the prices drop because it makes it the "habit" more affordable.

If the card market followed the DJIA then the cards would be going up in price rather than receding. I would have to guess that, overall, all of the collectibles markets are taking a hit.

[vintagecpa]

That is an interesting statement about VCP. It makes a ton of sense. It is a case of almost too much info.

[barrysloate]

There is also this mentality now that you shouldn't buy anything unless you can negotiate a really great price for it. There is so much lowballing going on everywhere, be it baseball cards, real estate, anything. It just becomes a mindset.

[toppcat]

Originally Posted by Leon

D304's are way, way down....as well as a plethora of other sets.

Leon-the phrase is "veritable plethora"

[rdixon1208]

My wife lost her job last month. My neighbor across the street lost her job yesterday. I also know of two local collectors that are out of work. I haven't been collecting long enough to know what sets are being hit the hardest, but I know what the cause is.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by rdixon1208

My wife lost her job last month. My neighbor across the street lost her job yesterday. I also know of two local collectors that are out of work. I haven't been collecting long enough to know what sets are being hit the hardest, but I know what the cause is.

Took my wife two years to find work to replace what she lost in December 2008.

[carrigansghost]

I was out of work for 14 months out of the last two years and sold some stuff to get by. Hopefully it will turn around and I do thank those that purchased those items. I believe it's the middle class working folks keeping the prices stable.
Rawn