Scarcity

[mintacular]

I am need of a metaphor to understand the volume of prewar cards compared to post-war. Could someone break this down in simple terms? Obviously, there is some variation depending on how far back or how fast forward you go, but I am just interested in a "ballpark" estimate of each. Perhaps by the end of the thread it will be necessary to break it down more specifically per decade in each said era....So, for example, a simple "run of the mill" common T206 might sell for $20 and its equivalent 1950s common, $2. Therefore, the pre-war stuff is (generally) x10 more scarce?

[Matt]

Originally Posted by mintacular

So, for example, a simple "run of the mill" common T206 might sell for $20 and its equivalent 1950s common, $2. Therefore, the pre-war stuff is (generally) x10 more scarce?

That logic is faulty. Scarcity does not equal value. Supply & demand.

Also, I'm not sure what the average pre-war card is (or if there even is such a thing) but T206s are the most plentiful of all pre-war issues.

Why not just compare current listings on eBay - that should give you a rough metric. Compare the results of a baseball card search for T205s vs 1955 topps or something like that.

[mintacular]

Let's assume demand is relatively close or equal for a common pre-war common vs. 50s one...And if it's vastly different, than perhaps we could revert to the original Q of scarcity rather than "market value"

[Jim VB]

You'd have to dig much deeper for an answer to this question. Even in the 50's and 60's, there were huge differences based merely on series.

[mintacular]

my query is unaswerable as there are too many variables. I guess I just want a broad picture on the volume of cards prewar vs. postwar...

[ChiefBenderForever]

I do know that the paper drive of WWII was the demise of a lot of remaining baseball cards that were laying around. Also on the back of the 1914 Cracker Jacks it says they printed up 10,000,000 million of each card so they were plentiful at one time. Because Topps started issuing complete sets in 1959 I would guess that 58 and under are much less abundant but still plenty around.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by mintacular

my query is unaswerable as there are too many variables. I guess I just want a broad picture on the volume of cards prewar vs. postwar...

pre-war is to brick as post-war is to building.

[mintacular]

thus far. Are there any stats about how many cards were produced each year (/likely survived...). Example: 1909 2M produced/10% survived; 1959 10M produced/30%; 1979 50M produced/80% etc....

[Jim VB]

Originally Posted by mintacular

my query is unaswerable as there are too many variables. I guess I just want a broad picture on the volume of cards prewar vs. postwar...

I think it's unanswerable if you're looking for accurate numbers and ratios.

I think it becomes more reasonable if you're looking for gradations of exactness.

As Matt suggested, do an ebay search for T206. See how many you get. Then do one for T205. Then T208, etc.

There's your ratios.

[brian1961]

Howdy Pat,

You have some pretty good responses already, but here's my ten cents. No matter how many T-206s or Cracker Jack were made, and no matter how many 1952 or 1959 Topps were cranked out, it comes down to how many have survived today. Even if they made a ka-zillion T-205s, and only 50,000 are around today, that is just part of what matters, though.

Someone mentioned the key phrase--supply and demand. The supply of something might be rare as a hundred-thousand dollar bill, but if it's ugly, or depicts common players, most collectors do not work up much of a sweat over them, except the "type-kwandos"--those guys LOVE that rare stuff, and they really do get their kicks with them, which is cool. I like their passion.

Demand is really a very crucial factor, because it plays out in more ways than a lot of collectors realize. For instance, supply might seem abundant, but if it is really popular and beautiful, and a lot of collectors admire that particular set or player, then the available supply is diminished severely. Those collectors could easily savor those cards for 10 - 20 - 30 years. That is a long time. (T-206 definitely comes to mind) You best know that when a desirable piece hits the market, a lot of collectors are now factoring in "frequency of availability". That is not official, just made it up, but regardless, it describes the importance of knowing what you are facing when you decide to collect a very popular set or player. Demand breeds higher prices, of course, particularly for the upper echelon and especially the highest graded specimens.

Wrapping it up Pat, the guys who said to go to eBay are right on for showing you what is readily available now. There is post-war galore for most of the gum cards. The pre-war picture I do not know, but suspect it varies. There are post-war regional cards that are brutal as all get out. Please don't go down that road--I don't want the competition! The auction catalogs will convey what costlier and often more desirable items are available.

Now finally, one of the best ways of knowing what is "out there" is to check the population reports of PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator) and SGC (Sports Card Guaranty). You have to be a member of PSA to get the full dope on their pop reports, but it's well worth it if you are going to seriously persue certain sets/players. SGC, bless their hearts, offer their pop reports for free. Granted, there is controversy over what is still out there ungraded, but the pop reports, since they are now 15 years old, offer pretty accurate patterns of scarcity and theoretical availability.

Now that I have bored you to tears ol' Pat, collect what you love, usually the money will follow when you sell. -Bri (ol' Mike)

[Leon]

For some of us that only got back into collecting later in life, like me, it's sometimes hard to realize the other worlds of baseball card collecting. I had a friend come over a few years ago that buys/sells/collects mostly 1950's baseball cards. After we chatted a little while I reallly had my eyes opened as to what was really going on. I am just going to take a wild stab here but I believe our Pre-WWII baseball card collecting is less than 1% of total baseball card collecting...and it could be much, much less......and this too was told to me by a good friend, full time, California dealer. I think his words were something like "the pre-war market is like a pimple on an elephant's arse ." There's a metaphor fer ya'!!

[egbeachley]

[QUOTE=brian1961;759683
Now finally, one of the best ways of knowing what is "out there" is to check the population reports of PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator) and SGC (Sports Card Guaranty). [/QUOTE]

You couldn't come up with a worse way to compare populations. Many (most?) low grade T206's are graded. Few low grade 60's Topps have been graded.

[JasonL]

I encountered the same issues when I attacked that line of thinking/questioning upon my entry into pre-war in 2006. Much of it is unknowable, learned through the experience of searches, estimated best by some sort of triangulation using auction catalogs, Ebay searches and Population reports.

I think the volume of surviving material of pre-war vs post-war is much much lower. The passing of years has deminished the collectable material, as well as perhaps (and this is debatable) the collecting audience in the pre-war arena. Values are very fickle, driven by demand in ways that don't always seem sensible.

Generally, there is one rule that I have learned thus far:
If I want it, it probably costs more than I have. If it doesn't, then I buy it.

I wish there was more science to this art, but I have never seen definitive numerical answers to your question regarding #s produced vs surviving, and how that then feeds demand. If you find more info in your quest, please share. otherwise, give up and just enjoy collecting what you like, I suppose. Wish I could be more help.

A good example of demand driving price:
A) Honus Wagner T206: estimated population of 50
Average price probably well over $200k+
B) 1949 Bowman PCL: I have seen estaimtes that only 2,000 total cards remain of this 36 card set. Assuming even distribution, then only 55 cards of each remain. possibly alot less than that.
Average price probably $250

[drc]

To put it in perspective, what is by far the most commonly found Pre-WWI cards? T206. Rough and varying estimates say there are about 2,000-2,500 examples of each T206 player card (not including rarities). And that's for the most plentiful issue.

By the way, scarcity is a measure of supply versus demand.
Rarity, on the other hand, is a strictly a measure of the population.

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

You couldn't come up with a worse way to compare populations. Many (most?) low grade T206's are graded. Few low grade 60's Topps have been graded.

I was assuming the man would not be interested in low-grade 50s/60s Topps. The population reports are unimportant for these low-grade cards, since there is no real future value increase for them. The cost of having each card graded, for most of them, is way more than the value of the card itself.

With fewer prewar, it seems to pay to have many of them graded.

I'm sorry; I probably did not express myself well. --Brian

[drdduet]

There maybe 100 - 1000 post war collectors (1950's - 80's) for every one prewar collector, and between 1000 - 10,000 modern collectors for every post war collector. Just some "off the fly" nonsensical estimates.

[mintacular]

so far. And to be sure, the thread should be titled "rarity". I noticed a few comments suggested pre-war collecting is a "pimple on the ass" compared to other time eras, but isn't that a result of being "priced out"? I would imagine the number of pre-war collectors would increase dramatically if cards cost $5 instead of $50...

[Rickyy]

survival rate definition can also be expanded to mean complete card or partial card too..like zeenuts with coupon are much harder to find than those with them...George Miller cards are often chopped in half and/or cancelled... some are scarce in numbers produced to begin with like the Yoohoo cards and then you find most of them are incomplete because they are missing tabs...

[Bosox Blair]

I'm definitely in the camp that believes close reliance upon these grading company pop reports can be dangerous and misleading.

That said, Mintacular has an inquiring mind, and there is some fun to be had in running some searches of these pop reports.

I agree that there is little point in running commons. Why would you? Search stars from the same "series" and you are much more likely to get meaningful data (the owner has a bigger incentive to send it in for grading).

Here's something from SGC:

They have graded:

245 T206 Tris Speaker cards

349 '53 Topps Mantle cards (low #)

155 '53 Topps Willie Mays cards (hi #)

This obviously tells us nothing conclusively, but this type of data may be interesting to Mintacular.

[mintacular]

Can pop reports really tell you much at all regarding my original Q? I would think 9/10 collectors, especially senior folks, don't send cards to grading companies as this service is relatively new. I would think pre-war collectors that aren't trying to resell their collectibles at this time would NOT be motivated to pop their Tris Speaker in the mail to authenticate an item they already know to be original. (JMO)

[cozmokramer]

I'm always curious about this for OLD JUDGEs... Go back to the 19th century stuff.

These were photos pasted onto backings... How many of each did they do back then? Was it 1000 of each player? 10,000 of each, or 100,000 or more?

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Can pop reports really tell you much at all regarding my original Q? I would think 9/10 collectors, especially senior folks, don't send cards to grading companies as this service is relatively new. I would think pre-war collectors that aren't trying to resell their collectibles at this time would be motivated to pop their Tris Speaker in the mail to authenticate an item they already know to be original. (JMO)

Hey, I'm one of the people who says do not use pop reports blindly as a measure of scarcity (as I stated in my first post).

That said, there is nothing out there that will answer your question. You want ballpark? You'll have to use rough estimates. These things are as good for that as anything I'm aware of.

Also, in your estimate of 9/10 vintage collectors not using grading services, I think you are wrong on that. I believe much more than 10% of vintage collectors use grading services. Do they send in every card? No! But that point has already been covered. Some (esp common and low grade) are just not worth it.

But anyways, if 9/10 people who own a T206 Speaker don't send it in, and 9/10 people who own a '53 Mantle don't send it in, then their relative scarcity (to each other) will be accurately reflected by the pop report.

[mintacular]

BoSox Blair that any evidence provided related to "pop. reports" provides a very incomplete (if not completely inaccurate) picture regarding the quantity of pre-war vs. post-war cards...

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by mintacular

BoSox Mike that any evidence provided related to "pop. reports" provides a very incomplete (if not completely inaccurate) picture regarding the quantity of pre-war vs. post-war cards...

We definitely agree on that!

Best of luck in your collecting!

[sox1903wschamp]

Good Discussion. I guess I am one of the 10% that did send a T206 Speaker into SGC and no, I am not a senior. I purchased my Speaker back in the Teletrade days of the 90's and wanted it graded a few years back for various reasons. One of the biggest was to see if the grade assigned matched the auction description. I have no plans to sell it and have since had my entire subset of T206 Red Sox graded. Makes for a really nice looking display.