Where Have All The Ultra High Grade Cards Gone?

[Archive]

Posted By: bruce Dorskind

We continue to study the rare card market.

We carefully monitor 20 auction houses and
all E Bay postings for high grade pre-War
baseball cards.

With the notable exception of T206's and a
one time mass listings of 4 in 1 Puzzle cards,
we have noticed a precipitous drop in both
the quality and quantity of ultra high grade
pre-War cards available in public auctions.

As recently as 30 months ago, it was common to
see 5-10 PSA8 Cracker Jacks, PSA8 1941 Playballs
and high grade rare E cards up for auction each
week on E Bay.

Now, it is rare, indeed, to see these cards, except when
a dealer offers them as "Buy It Now" at 3x the market rate.

More than 25 a young kid named Billy Mastro advised us
that it is never difficult to "sell high grade cards" but nearly
impossible to buy them.

For the penultimate collector, the opportunity to add ultra high
grade examples appears discouraging, indeed.

It will not be too long before the only buying opportunities will be limited
to Mastro and REA Auctions..

What do you think?


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want

[Archive]

Posted By: Paul

I still see plenty high grade 1915 CJs. Not sure about the others.

[Archive]

Posted By: Rob D.

Not only are ultra-high-grade cards tough to find, but when they do turn up, they're often of Pittsburgh Pirates.

[Archive]

Posted By: Matt

Perhaps the initial wave brought on by grading companies has subsided and the buyers of those cards want to keep them.

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

I think when collectors buy very high grade material, they are likely to hang on to it a while because it might be impossible to replace, especially a low pop.

You still do see high grade cards in the major auctions, but it's reasonable to assume the supply is dwindling as more of these cards are ending up in major collections.

[Archive]

Posted By: Bob

Bruce- It seems like high grade cards have found their way in to collections now and will stay there for quite a while. I think more and more cards are "being taken out of circulation" as collectors buy and wait. You still see some nice cards for sale but they are often cards which have been "upgraded" by still nicer ones.
Further I think there are some really nice "raw" cards which are in collections of collectors who are not enamored by things like Set Registries and are just not currently available in the open market.
I also think some collectors are trying to ride out the current economic woes and waiting until later in the year to try and sell.
Just my theory, anyway.
tbob

[Archive]

Posted By: leon

With all due respect when they do come out do you bid on them? I know I will be auctioning off a few ultra high grade vintage cards in the near future. I expect you will be bidding to win ...Remember, you have to pay up for the best cards. But in the long run the best stuff does the best....For the most part I won't collect high grade cards due to the lack of provenance and high prices.........regards

edited.....thanks Barry

[Archive]

Posted By: Paul

Maybe some "group" of collectors has horded them all

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

Hey Leon- three posts all at 11:18! (and it's "due to").


changed ...and thanks Barry...I hate stupid mistakes I make...(leon)

[Archive]

Posted By: MVSNYC

i feel like this topic has been covered a million times, but here goes again...

i think the "ultra high-grade" cards, have been gobbled-up by a handful of collectors. these collectors do NOT need money, so they're cards are NOT for sale...they are sitting in their vaults.

[Archive]

Posted By: Paul

I think Michael (I think your Michael, right? I just know you as the person who has one of my favorit Cobbs!!) has hit the nail on the head. What other possible explanation could there be?

[Archive]

Posted By: CoreyRS.hanus

1. Not sure if it is so much that there are fewer ultra high grade cards offered, but instead that they are more and more finding themselves in certain auctions. I always thought to an informed person eBay was a dumb way to sell such stuff, and maybe sellers are more educated now how best to sell such cards.

2. Prices of many of them have sagged and maybe sellers are sitting it out until the market firms.

3. I know of some instances where such cards have been sold in private transactions, which of course would be under the radar screen.

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

Michael is correct, but his answer is not complete.

Many of the collectors who build very large collections very quickly are often the first to burn out. I have seen it many times, Copeland being among the most prominent. When one of these collections comes up for sale, there will be a new infusion of high grade material into the marketplace.

And of course it will be quickly gobbled up by the next generation.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jay

I think you both used the word "penultimate" incorrectly

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

Jay is correct. Penultimate means "next to last."

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Prizner

"2. Prices of many of them have sagged and maybe sellers are sitting it out until the market firms."

my thoughts exactly.

[Archive]

Posted By: MVSNYC

paul- i am michael...but i do not currently own any cobb cards.

p.s. barry- agreed that your answer is more complete.

[Archive]

Posted By: DD

We feel there are a cadre of other words that could have replaced penultimate. The truculence of the initial poster, however, precludes corrections and suggestions in his vitriolic posts, whether the point being made is accurate or not.

[Archive]

Posted By: Alan

There's a guy who spends $5 million per year on ultra high grade cards. I wonder if he has them all.

[Archive]

Posted By: boxingcardman

"More than 25 a young kid named Billy Mastro advised us that it is never difficult to "sell high grade cards" but nearly impossible to buy them."

Yeah, but it's getting easier and easier to make them and get them into PSA slabs (ooohhhh, gentlemen, start the bitch-slaps now).

"For the penultimate collector, the opportunity to add ultra high grade examples appears discouraging, indeed."

Of course it is; as the next to the ultimate collector he's always going to be the underbidder.

But seriously, the so-called condition rarity cards are "sticky downwards" because the folks who plunk down big bucks for those cards generally aren't about to panic sell when the economy craps the bed. On the buying side, lots of people are feeling about as confident in the economy as a faith healer with appendicitis and they are laying off potential big purchases. Since there are relatively few people who actively buy the so-called condition rarities, even a few of them laying off will be felt overall. That's what you get with a thinly marketed commodity; volatility.



Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

A faith healer with appendicitis.

[Archive]

Posted By: Ricky Y

As the economy begins to look sunny again...they'll appear for sale at a profit.

Ricky Y

[Archive]

Posted By: Brian

Where Have All The Ultra High Grade Cards Gone?

They have gone to the people that pay for them, instead of just talk about them.

[Archive]

Posted By: steve

You could come up with a few theories as to why, but a higher percentage of the "good stuff" is being held.

Personally, I am holding my top end rarities with no anticipation of selling - always looking to add.

What are you folks currently doing? Are you letting some choice items out, or are you too holding? If you are letting them out, what avenue of selling do you prefer?

steve

ps - check out my 1926 Ruth on the pickup thread. WooHoo!

[Archive]

Posted By: Jason L

Surely, there will be more coming out to market shortly.

card doctors can experience inventory shortages, shipping delays, and fall behind like any other suppliers

[Archive]

Posted By: Joe D.

if you are investigating this issue of 'Where Have All The Ultra High Grade Cards Gone?'....
you can cross my name off of the list.

They are certainly not in my collection.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff S.

Not ultra high-grade, but apparently higher grades come to those who crack and resubmit. I got the 70 back 4 months ago, sold it, now it's being offered at an 80 on Ebay for roughly double my price.

[Archive]

Posted By: Cobby33

Maybe because nobody can (or wants to) afford these overpriced specimens in this market, thus, people are not selling them for what they paid or believe they are worth.

[Archive]

Posted By: davidcycleback

"Surely, there will be more coming out to market shortly."

Excellent pun, Jason L.

You could have also said, "Surely there will be more coming out to market wrinkles-pressed-outly."

[Archive]

Posted By: DD

Jeff,
Is it the scans, or were some of the stains on the upper right removed? Also, the upper right corner looks a little stronger? It could be my imagination, or just the scans.

[Archive]

Posted By: leon

I see the same things you do....less staining and stronger upper right corner....at least it appears that way to me.....

[Archive]

Posted By: Jason L

There is nothing more frustrating than a genius misundertood!

I was pretty proud of my little creation and wondering if anyone else would notice.

Lightning in a bottle!

[Archive]

Posted By: Frank Wakefield

I think Cobby up there is close to right. I've heard a few folks whine when selling something, when it wouldn't sell for what they'd paid. Maybe they paid too much.

paene = almost
ultimus = final

almost last or almost final... gotta love words!

[Archive]

Posted By: Joe D.

looks like a difference in scans to me.

the second scan is just lighter IMO.


(and it is just a 1/2 grade bump.... heck it looks like a 6. And you can crack out and get either a 6 or a 5.5 many many times if you keep resubmitting).

jmho.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff S.

The corner looks a little stronger to me, but I think the decrease in stains may be due to a softer scan. There's a slight diamond cut to my original - the 80 looked slightly less, but I put it up on Photoshop with horizontal grids and it seemed to be the same. PS - it's currently offered by a banner advertiser.

[Archive]

Posted By: MVSNYC

in the first scan there is smchutz to the left of his glove...in the second scan it's gonzo

[Archive]

Posted By: Joe D.

"PS - it's currently offered by a banner advertiser."



now the conversation just got a heck of a lot more interesting.

taking it up a notch!

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff S.

The first is the 70, 2nd is the 80. Mike I didn't even notice the mark missing to the left of his glove - unless it's the scan?

[Archive]

Posted By: John

The Market is soft nothing more nothing less, PSA 7 and above T206’s for example are selling for less when they go up for sale as compared to many months ago. The few that do go up are going up with BIN that equal past prices not current prices and therefore don’t sell. Higher grade cards that are left to sell on straight bids are shifting down, now’s a great time to buy but a bad time to sell, especially tougher items, most folks are hanging on until a spring back unless your willing to pay last years prices.

Although most likely pedestrian to the group above…an example from my experiences, early last year I won the Lowdermilk from an REA auction and paid a little over 4.5k and this year I won the Miller in a higher grade for less than 1.8k.

[Archive]

Posted By: Zinn

I believe Bruce correctly used the word "penultimate" as he was, as I saw it, referring to "second tier" collectors rather than the whales who have all the money in the world to acquire what they want.

Damn: Just read up and saw that the very bright fellow Adam Warshaw had already picked up on this.

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

John- the print on the back of the Lowdermilk looks brown. Is it, or is it just the scan?

[Archive]

Posted By: John

It's a faded black Barry that scan just makes it look brown...

[Archive]

Posted By: barrysloate

Thought you landed a new find. It's interesting because there has always been some debate about brown vs. black Lenox, and brown T207's. Some people say the brown text is just faded black, others insist there is a distinct color difference. Your Lowdermilk is another example of it, because it sure looks brown in the scan.

[Archive]

Posted By: brian

"Where Have All The Ultra High Grade Cards Gone?
They have gone to the people that pay for them, instead of just talk about them."

that made me laugh so hard, I almost choked on my Dasani.
George Dreer is supposed to have a lot of ultra high grade cards, so if Dorskind is nice to him, maybe he'll throw him a bone?

[Archive]

Posted By: Zinn

George Dreer(sic)Dreyer:

I thought he had announced that he was selling out. Great opportunity for the Bruces but bad news for the Bank.

[Archive]

Posted By: Charlie Barokas

Mike,

Good eye! I was able to lick my finger and scrape off the "schmootz" with my finger nail. However, I have said "schmootz" in an airtight petrie dish and can re-apply if so desired. Lastly, after cracking out cards its a good-idea to put them in a plastic screwdowns which might flatten the card out every so slightly which probably accounts for the upper-right.

Charlie

[Archive]

Posted By: boxingcardman

“Surely, there will be more coming out to market shortly. Card doctors can experience inventory shortages, shipping delays, and fall behind like any other suppliers.”

"Where Have All The Ultra High Grade Cards Gone? They have gone to the people that pay for them, instead of just talk about them."

Now that’s funny stuff!




Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

[Archive]

Posted By: brianp

They are all being processed and upwardly envigorated in the various Dr. Frankencard's labs across the nation to be eventually entombed forever for frenzied consumption by the ultra high graded card junkies who only come out out at night for impossibly razor sharp corners and bleached white borders.

just a possibility,

Brian

[Archive]

Posted By: Bob

John- Your purchase of the T207 Ward Miller for the sale price is the best buy I have seen over the last 2 years. Incredible! That is a much, much tougher card than Loudermilk, Lewis or any of the other "biggies" in the set and a "6" is mind-blowing. Congrats.
tbob

[Archive]

Posted By: Bruce Babcock

To echo tbob, a great deal on the Ward Miller. The nicest I've seen and a great price.