1933 Goudey Lajoie #106

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Posted By: RC McKenzie

Did you guys see the 1933 Goudey Lajoie SGC 30 that sold on ebay the other day for $10,100? I thought it might have fetched more. A 'dealer' bought it (although we are all 'dealers' now with the advent of ebay). Is this card no longer considered a hobby "giant"?

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Posted By: fkw

$10K might be a bit high for a 2. SCD "books" it as $8500 in VG and many still go by what the book says so that might have something to do with the price.

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Posted By: peter ullman

if i didn't need my car...i'd think 10k for a 2 34 nap lajoie is a fair price...are we/am I becoming so highly skewed?

pete in mn

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Posted By: RC McKenzie

I wasn't implying that the price was 'cheap' only in relation to what other stuff sells for now. I guess I just remember this card being mentioned in the same sentence with t206 plank when I was a kid. If you look in Lemke's book it doesn't say anything about a 57 koufax for 56, 000 dollars lol regards

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Posted By: peter ullman

i agree it used to be mentioned amongst the most prized cards...but I guess things have changed dramatically! i still consider it a rarity of the hobby...although I guess not that rare!

pete in mn

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Posted By: cmoking

While caramel cards have shot up through the roof lately, prices on Goudeys seem to be at a standstill. Looking at prices for high end cards (PSA 8 mostly) from the late 1990s, the prices today are actually a tad lower. That can't be said for T or E cards.

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Posted By: Dylan

I think people are appreciating the rare N,T,E cards more and more

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

KING

Your observation is right on the money....and it's not only Goudeys, but Diamond Stars,
and Play Balls, also.

There has been a noticeable shift in interest these past couple of years from pre-WWII
cards in general to pre-WWI cards. How long this focus on pre-WWI cards will continue
is anyone's guess.

Care to venture a prediction.....anyone ?

T-Rex TED

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Posted By: Jason L

an earlier thread I started this past fall, in which I asked the Board for opinions on whether or not vintage cards go cold and actually decline in price...the general opinion seemed to be at that time that prices simply stall and steady out for awhile...but the tone I see here suggests that if you have patience, you can be rewarded when a set or sub-era goes unappreciated...
very interesting...if you are a collector with an interest in investment, I would say it may be time to step up on the 1930s and 40s, gentlemen...I welcome comments on this!

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Posted By: Jeff Mohler

Hi smallcapdaddy!

I have started putting together some Goudey premiums that are in good condition. The demand for these items just isn't there like in the pre-WWI cards. I don't know if they will go up in value or just tread water, but I am finding it to be enjoyable, which is what collecting is supposed to be all about. If the cards go up in value, all the better!

Jeff

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Posted By: T206Collector

First of all, there are fewer and fewer people around that remember the 1930's from their childhood, thus you are going to attract people who didn't live through it. When you put all of those people into the market, why would someone stop at the 1930's when they can easily go back to 1909 with T206? I began my vintage collecting with Goudey -- and still have the Goudey Grove I picked up in 1989 when I was 16. But with the advent of eBay and proliferation of T206 cards, it was hard to justify spending money on 1930's cards when I could just as easily put together quite a collection of 1909 cards.

I think the same will happen with 1940's, 50's, 60's cards as the collectors of those issues with memories of their childhood fade away. In 20-30 years from now, why would you collect 1950's Topps cards when you can still easily acquire T206 cards?

This assumes, of course, that older is always better. But a lot of collectors think that way. I think you'd see more interest in 1800's cards if there were more of them around. But the availability of T206 keeps the collectors coming back for more on a day-to-day basis.

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Posted By: Jason L

I want to make sure I follow what you're saying...your supposition is that if all the fans from 2 given eras are both largely now deceased, and the supply of cards from each era is roughly equal, then the contemporary collector with no first-hand experience with either era, will choose the oldest cards as the favorite to collect?
If I understood that correctly, I think I could agree with this thinking. It would be the "perception" of scarcity because of relative age, I suppose, that would drive the increased demand for the older cards....

but you will likely still see favorites in both eras, and those who will prefer the art-deco style of the 30s cards over the tobacco issues, and vice versa...

Jeff,
there's nothing better than a hobby that is rewarding at lower prices!
are you buying raw or graded? have you found better supply of one over the other?

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Paul, I think that logic is somewhat simplistic. Why do people bother to collect Albert Pujols' rookie cards for 4 figures? I agree that the Goudeys are and have been flat for a while. But all it takes is a few serious collectors to move a market. I've bought a very large amount of high end T206s and Topps cards from the 50s over the past 3 years or so and I can tell you that the cards from the 50s have performed better upon resale than the T206s (which have done really well, regardless).

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Posted By: T206Collector

Both of you made my point for me better than I did...

"if all the fans from 2 given eras are both largely now deceased, and the supply of cards from each era is roughly equal, then the contemporary collector with no first-hand experience with either era, will choose the oldest cards as the favorite to collect?"

Precisely.

People buy Albert Pujols' rookie cards for 4 figures because they see what Ruth now sells for and they impute on Pujols the same history. Pujols' card values already reflects a market consensus that he will be a HOFer.

"I can tell you that the cards from the 50s have performed better upon resale than the T206s (which have done really well, regardless)."

That is because those people who grew up in the 50's have a ton of wealth to spread around, while those who grew up in the 10's are dead -- the only collectors of 10's stuff are the historical collectors, while the 50's cards draw interest from the nostalgic collectors as well as the historical collectors. Keeping with my only point, when all the children of the 50's are dead and buried, their grandkids would prefer Cobb to Mantle because of age and perceived scarcity.

But, yes, there will always be interest in certain sets from each era for whatever reason.

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Posted By: Anonymous

relatively new to vintage cards, i gave up on the monster because in the past 6 or so months, prices seem to have gotten ridiculous. as a kid in the 70's, i always liked the look of 52 bowmans. when i realized a few months ago that i could buy 3 or 4 or 5 1952 bowmans in excellent condition for the same price as a not-so-excellent t206, i went with the bowmans for quality AND quantity.

the idea of assembling a complete set, i think, motivates a lot of people in one direction or another (hence my reluctance to carry on with the monster and proceed with the bowmans). i think price has to weigh heavily on many collectors- that being said, yes, t206 will always be popular for the above stated reasons, but as prices continue to climb on certain sets, others with less interest will invariably gain interest, if for no other reason than being a cheap alternative. as that happens, prices for those sets (52 bowmans?) will begin to rise while others (t205s?) doesn't necessarily decline, but perhaps remain flat for a while.

this whole thing seems very cyclical- pujols goes up or down based largely on his popularity and ability to smash home runs today. ty cobb and mickey mantle are dead and therefore not doing anything to help or hurt their popularity one way or another. collecting is suceptable to the same economic principles as, say the real estate market. manhattan got too expensive so people moved to brooklyn. then brooklyn got hip and prices went up- not that they declined in manhattan- another entity gained popularity- simple.

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Posted By: Jason L

interesting was Cmoking's observation that prices are actually lower for some 30-40s cards right now than they were in 1990...suggesting that market prices will actually go DOWN, rather than just stay flat...I just thought that was a very interesting observation...to see actual "downside" cyclicality in a portions of the market, rather than cycles of appreciation/plateau, as I had traditionally thought...

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Posted By: cmoking

Paul wrote: "why would someone stop at the 1930's when they can easily go back to 1909 with T206?"

The one word answer is: RUTH

The most dominant player ever, still known to this day. How many cards are produced with Babe Ruth today? Even my 9 year old nephew knows all about him (ok, maybe it is because I read him some books when he was younger!).

FWIW, I'm not sad that 30s cards haven't increased as much. I collect them, and I'm having a lot of fun with them. Not having to spend more is fine with me!

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Posted By: T206Collector

...is a good reason to collect 1933 Goudey cards, to be sure.

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Posted By: barrysloate

While some sets fall in and out of fashion, all are collectable. When the Goudeys start to appear cheap in comparison to other vintage sets, they will start to get hot. After a price surge, when they start to appear overpriced, they will cool off. And certainly the Ruth and Gehrig cards make the 30's sets appealing; likewise, Topps sets will be collected because of Mantle, Mays, Aaron, et al., not to mention the joy people get completing sets.