Why isn't Rarity the No.1 factor in determining a card's value?

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Posted By: E, Daniel

What got me started on this thread was seeing a Matty orange borders SGC10 listed currently on ebay for an outrageous BIN price of $2400, not long after the card appeared here in discussions and had been sitting on ebay with a BIN price of $275ish for months and months earlier in the year - with I presume a different owner.
Similarly, a 1921 Oxford Babe Ruth SGC Aut. just got listed with a BIN price of, wait for it, $2995 !!!!!!!

Now, interestingly enough I own both an orange borders - lajoie SGC20, and a 21' Oxford Ruth SGC10, and as a type collector purchased both examples because of their rarity (sorry leon, feel free to be pissed off and call it SCARCITY if you must!) and my enjoyment of the depictions. I felt both sets undervalued at the price (Lajoie $530, Ruth $500) most especially because of the relative rarity of the issues and felt both had good long term investment potential...........

But seriously, I expected and still expect that there is a process to go through; the issues need to get "re-discovered" (and by that I don't mean serious vintage collectors that frequent the board - but the masses that push prices on ebay and auction houses) and with time and an understanding of their relative scarcities when comparing other issues for those players, that they build strongly in value.

So, I guess the question is, why is it such a long process?
Other antiques and collectables owe their values PRIMARILY to rarity, when all other factors are equal....eg. quality of maker, period, etc...
I mean, there are hundreds and thousands of T206's of the hall of famers, yet the prices they command are extraordinary.
Will that all change in the future?
Like all other collectables, will not the prices for similar items (eg. trading cards of players, printed approx. in their playing lifetimes, and with reasonable depictions of their faces or action poses) end up being valued primarily by Rarity.......

And how long will it take?
And how many of you will be sweating with all those high, high priced T206's?


Daniel

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Posted By: T206Collector

...is only half of the curve. Demand is equally important. Price is determined where supply intersects demand.

For example, if I cut my finger nail into a bowl and let it sit there for over 100 years, it will be an antique finger nail. It will also be unique. There will be only one in existence. But it's value will be zero because there is no demand for it.

Now take 50 Honus Wagner cards, and a zillion people that want them. That is why they are more valuable than some other vintage cards that are technically more rare than the Wagner card.

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Posted By: Judge Dred (Fred)

Econ 101 - Supply and Demand.

You can have a one of one type card but if nobody gives a rats butt about it and nobody wants it then the price for the card will probably be minimal because nobody wants it.

Now if the card gets the right hype and there's interest in it then maybe the value of the card would increase in proportion to the size wallets of the interested parties.

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Posted By: E, Daniel

How is a fingernail, an analogy for an orange borders Mathewson Vs a T206 portrait mathewson? The second compares two cards, both printed at roughly the same time, of the same player, with similar image............
And one is disproportionately rarer than the other, and disproportionately cheaper (like how I spelt it correctly both times!!).

So, I get economic theory. Throw as much Keynes at me as you'd like (I studied in University too!!), but where there are similar items available, shouldn't scarcity play a stronger role in shaping demand?

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Posted By: Josh K.

I think generally what has been stated above is very accurate. One needs to look no further than the modern 1 of 1's that are put out every other week by the major card companies to realize that demand and hype are key factors when trying to determine what a card might sell for.

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Posted By: T206Collector

...then you should get the fingernail analogy. Your argument is that supply should fuel demand. My response is that it depends on what you're talking about. With two cards of Matty, one rarer than the other, and the rarer one being cheaper, you have answered your own question -- supply has influenced demand, but not to a point where demand is for the less rare card. It is hardly a surprising phenomena.

T206 cards are much nicer than any other baseball card that has ever been created. My opinion? Sure, but I am hardly alone. And that's the point.

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Posted By: Joe D.

Yes, I listed the Matty at a high price. Perhaps too high for my own intentions. The listed price may be scaring away offers - and if so, some of the intention was wasted.

First let me say I posted the question here on this board - whether or not something like that was frowned upon on N54 (posting a high buy it now to see what kind of offers come in). I didn't want to do anything that would be looked at in a negative light, but at the same time - I did want to see what kind of offers would come in.

The card has frustrated me a bit - mainly because its scarcity is making it difficult for me to pin down a proper valuation.

I could walk into any decent card show and see a Matty Dark Cap T206 at every table -- and often more than one at a table. I could then go up and down the isles and not find a single Matty Orange borders. Not one.

There is no doubt in my mind that this card is many times more scarce than the T206. Could someone else please post a Matty Orange borders in any condition - I would like to see another one... because I have yet to find one (I know there are others out there, I am not suggesting this is the only one, just pointing out scarcity).

Let me go a step further. I personally have owned a D304 Butter Krust Matty, and have seen many more D304 Matty's offered up than Matty Orange borders. A D304 Matty (which I may be mistaken, but I think might be more common) in this condition would go for a higher price than my eBay listing price.

Now... more toward your question:
Rarity by itself is not a driving force toward price. Demand is. Plain and simple.

Rarity can of course effect demand... but sometimes it does not do it in an equitable fashion. So, a card that is more rare but less desired / may price lower than a more common card.



Now... when I see a T206 common in high grade go for $8,000?!?! - I think that was a deciding factor for me to make the listing (it was either that or something similar). If for nothing else the listing was just my statement... A statement that I think this card does not get the attention deserved. It was a "get to know this card, get to know this set" type listing. And I think worth every penny of the $6 listing fee. Anybody with an orange borders card should be thanking me


Edit:
May I also say, a silly thing that holds this card back in valuation - in my opinion - is that it doesn't have a proper designation. If it was called an E115 or something like that... more interest would follow. Sounds silly, but I think it is true.

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Posted By: E, Daniel

Well, while I think it's nice for an orange borders to be listed - they do turn up at intermittent intervals on ebay....so I'm not sure the "advertising" will help my own example in any real measure. I really believe - and I guess here I'm answering my own question/post, that knowledge of the various sundry vintage issues by a broader community feeling and learning it's way around the hobby will have most effect on giving true value to these scarcer isssues.

I guess I really should have titled the post - "WILL Rarity become the No.1 factor in determining a card's value?", as that is my real question for the board to consider and opine on.........I really really really do understand supply and demand, so I don't feel any need to be filled in further on the mechanisms of a free market system.............


Sincerely
Daniel

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Posted By: Darrell

To date there has only been 33 of these cards graded by the top 3 graders.I'm not a hobbiest,but that sounds very rare.I sold 15 of these cards in milehigh's auction.My grandfathers ruth being a 6 sgc the only other ruth graded was a 1-2.Thought it would go for more than $6800,but for what pop paid for it(.0001 cents)not a bad pay day.P.S.Thanks to all on this forum for your help in my research.P.P.S.I think your out of your minds for paying this kind of money for cards,but I pay crazy money for concerts so I have no room to talk.PEACE.D.

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Posted By: davidcycleback

The 1982 Topps Traded set was issued only as complete factory boxed sets, meaning there is essentially the same number of each card. Is anyone shocked to look in the price guide and see that the cards aren't worth the same?

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Posted By: Bob

Don't forget that some sets become "sexy" for lack of a better term. The T207s will probably never be sexy nor will the M116 Sporting Life set (both to my chagrin having completed the one and almost completed the other) but the D304s are definitely a "sexy" set as are the E107s, E92 Croft Cocoas, T210s, etc. Much desired, much lusted after, etc.

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Posted By: Richard

Bob -

No need for you to worry. I think the E94 set is both sexy and much lusted after

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

"WILL Rarity become the No.1 factor in determining a card's value?", as that is my real question for the board to consider and opine on........."

Yes.

And I guess that your next question is: "when?"

The answer which I have for that requires that you honestly appraise the hobby's progress to date (we are now firming up the actual dates which almost all of the sets were produced; having recently completed determining almost all of the cards in each set). And realize that awareness of what is being collected in this hobby is in its infancy. That is: we are beginning to get a grasp on the components of this hobby. The next step will be (through historical records compiled by persons like Bobby Bresdo, Ted Golden and others via their utilities, and other sources) the establishment of the population of each element which we collect.

I anticipate this process requiring decades. At the conclusion of these "decades" there will remain a high degree of uncertainty regarding each cards population, particularly with regard to the less densly populated issues. This is because cards may be stocked away, left to people who have no interest in them, nor any interest in disposing of them; and essentially gone from the hobby - until that fateful day when they return.

How long until this uncertainty disappears? What - ev - ahhh length of time is the interval required for rarity to be established with certainty. At that time, card prices can begin to be based on rarity, recognizing that consideration to demand precipitated by the relative popularity of any set will always be a factor.

But will people ever care that the '52 Mantle is not that player's rookie card?

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Posted By: Gilbert Maines

Of course, my preceeding post represents speculation which follows one hobby development path. Certainly, alternate paths exist. For example, coin collecting developed along an entirely different mechanism of awareness. In that hobby, a brute force approach was employed to deal with their ignorance. Specifically, collectors banded together in discreet study groups to address the grading and population of those coins within their field of specialization.

In numismatics, one of the more advanced groups is called the Early American Coppers (club). These individuals have studied a particularly complex area of coin collecting: the first cents and half cents issued by the US Mint.

The accomplishments of this group include the identification of each individual coin variant in their sector of the hobby, the development of a grading scheme preferred to evaluate those coins within their realm (independent of grading company's opinions), definition of the relative scarcity of each variant, establishment of a condition census which identifies the best condition examples of each variant and tracks the location of each condition census coin (as possible), documentation of the price for each variant in all possible grades, maintenance and updating the above information, as applicable.

Obviously, the foregoing is no small task. In our hobby, the equivalent to the early american coppers may be the old judge set.

A significant team of hobbiests, posessing considerable knowledge, or in some cases, just a willingness to help; was successfully brought to bear to address the need.

Other groups in other study areas have met with similar or lesser success utilizing approaches deemed applicable to the coins in their area of specialization. Some areas remain wanting better definition.

One problem facing the approach I outlined in my previous post is the reliance on database utilities to capture the needed data. In operation, the only data which will be captured is that of graded cards. Important ungraded cards will be ignored with the potential hobby development path which I cited.

There are certainly many possibilities here. I remain curious regarding how we do progress.

Edited to change two "coins" to "cards"

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Posted By: MikeW

... not to interupt the thread... but is your fingernail still available T206 Collector? If so, please send a pic.

joking ... supply and demand = price