HOF Future Eligibles

[bcbgcbrcb]

With all of the talk this week centering around the 2015 Baseball HOF candidates and how crowded and back-logged the ballot is, I thought it would be fun to take a peek into the future at the next couple of years. In addition to everyone who does not make it this year and retains their eligibility status going forward, here are the biggest names for 2016 & 2017 IMHO:

2016 - Ken Griffey Jr. (no brainer), Trevor Hoffman (likely) & Jim Edmonds (not sure if he has been linked to PED's at all)

2017 - Ivan Rodriguez (PED's), Manny Ramirez (PED's), Vladimir Guerrero (close to a lock) & Jorge Posada (questionable)

I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on the upcoming ballots.........

[Sean]

I really like Vlad Guerrero, but I don't think he gets in... at least not on the first ballot.
I hope I'm wrong.

[btcarfagno]

Trevor Hoffman? Oh please no. And if Jorge Posada gets more than 5% of the vote Ted Simmons should go apeshit on the BBWAA.

Tom C

[Robextend]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Trevor Hoffman? Oh please no. And if Jorge Posada gets more than 5% of the vote Ted Simmons should go apeshit on the BBWAA.

Tom C

Agreed on Simmons...Posada isn't in the same ballpark as him regarding HOF numbers and the type of hitter Simmons was.

[Klrdds]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Trevor Hoffman? Oh please no. And if Jorge Posada gets more than 5% of the vote Ted Simmons should go apeshit on the BBWAA.

Tom C

Agree with you on Simmons. Posada gets the benefit of the doubt because he was a Yankee. Simmons gets hurt because he was a contemporary with Bench when the Cards were ok to bad and the Reds were one of the best in baseball.

[arc2q]

Are those really the only significant players with first-time eligibility in 2016 and 2017? Things have really thinned out. Even without PEDs to consider, I would consider only Griffey as a HOF lock. Guerrero and Ramirez (my opinion) were historically borderline.

Because I grew up in the 80s I consider every player on what I call the Schmidt-Dawson-Raines-Murphy paradigm (I just made that up). Schmidt was the only lock yet I felt (and still feel) all four were better in their day than the 90's/00's power hitters, including Guerrero, Ramirez, Tejada, Edmonds, Sosa, etc.

[rats60]

Griffey 1st ballot, Vladimir 2nd or 3rd. This will be when Bagwell and Piazza make it. If Hoffman gets in, Billy Wagner should too. I don't want to fill the hall with a bunch of relievers. Everyone else no. We could see a ballot where no one gers 75%.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

Trevor Hoffman? Oh please no. And if Jorge Posada gets more than 5% of the vote Ted Simmons should go apeshit on the BBWAA.

Tom C

Ok, what's wrong with Hoffman? 600 saves, a sub 3 ERA, more than a K an inning. The guy was not only a great closer with one of the highest save conversion percentages, he is an also an incredible humble role model. No, he shouldn't get in because he's a great role model but I tell you what, he's cut from the same type of cloth as Jeter, Mariano, Tony Gwynn and a few other incredible team players. He dominated at his position. Yeah, I'll give Mariano an edge on being the better closer but Trevor was no slouch as a closer.

[btcarfagno]

Originally Posted by Fred

Ok, what's wrong with Hoffman? 600 saves, a sub 3 ERA, more than a K an inning. The guy was not only a great closer with one of the highest save conversion percentages, he is an also an incredible humble role model. No, he shouldn't get in because he's a great role model but I tell you what, he's cut from the same type of cloth as Jeter, Mariano, Tony Gwynn and a few other incredible team players. He dominated at his position. Yeah, I'll give Mariano an edge on being the better closer but Trevor was no slouch as a closer.

He's a closer. Which means he wasn't good enough to be a starter. Someone who played a total of less than 1100 innings in the major leagues does not deserve to be in the Hall. Saying he might be the second best relief pitcher of all time carries about as much weight with me as someone who was the second best pinch hitter of all time.

Tom C

[LincolnVT]

Hoping for 2016!

[bbcard1]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

He's a closer. Which means he wasn't good enough to be a starter.

Tom C

That's not at all what being a closer means. Personally, I would be all for Lee Smith and Hoffman is a no brainer.

[Robextend]

I'm really torn when it comes to closer's. Can they be considered failed starters...maybe, but they are an accepted part of the game these days and there probably should be a place for them in the HOF. With that said, I would think you need to be a completely dominant one to get in, and I am not sure there are any in that I would consider dominant.

Even Eckersley, who is regarded as a top closer of all-time...take a look at his 11 year stretch as closer as far as ERA:

1987 - 3.03
1988 - 2.35
1989 - 1.56
1990 - 0.61
1991 - 2.96
1992 - 1.91
1993 - 4.16
1994 - 4.26
1995 - 4.83
1996 - 3.30
1997 - 3.91

His dominance fizzled after 5 years or so...his starting numbers were good, but certainly not HOF worthy as maybe a Smoltz would be considered.

So why is Eckersley in the HOF?

[Greg Sonk]

Originally Posted by btcarfagno

He's a closer. Which means he wasn't good enough to be a starter. Someone who played a total of less than 1100 innings in the major leagues does not deserve to be in the Hall. Saying he might be the second best relief pitcher of all time carries about as much weight with me as someone who was the second best pinch hitter of all time.

Tom C

Obviously I agree with you wholeheartedly, but please don't even dignify "closer" as a position. He pitches. Relief pitchers are inherently less valuable than equivalent starters because they don't throw as many innings. There's no argument to be made to the contrary.

We have all this evidence that points to the relative value of relievers to starters and we still see media members saying Hoffman had excellent longevity while simultaneously questioning Pedro's. Can't account for willful ignorance.

[Robextend]

I agree, those seem to be the best names out there besides the returning crew.

Griffey no doubt...I had the pleasure of growing up watching him destroy my Yankees time and time again.

Hoffman will get in, although I think his 601 saves is a bit deceiving, as I do not think he was overly dominating. The last few years of his career he racked up an insane amount of saves to help his cause, but his ERA in the span wasn't what you would expect for a hall of fame closer.

Edmonds was never a top 3 MVP vote finisher and only made 4 AS games. These days, 284 AVG, 393HR, under 1200 runs and rbi is def not good enough...not sure he even stays on ballot past a year or two.

Manny is going to succomb to the same fate as McGwire, Clemens, etc...probably even worse since he is a repeat offender in recent years.

I-Rod might get strong support, but he will probably fall shy because of that PED link, although he will probably have a better HOF vote percentage than Manny

Vlad might get in, but he certainly is no lock...wouldn't be surprised if it took a few years.

Posada was a winner and put up good numbers, especially for a catcher, but in my mind he is far from HOF worthy. He was a good player, not great.

[autocentral]

I think Griffey is a no brainer. Hoffman will get in and the only one of the others with a case is Vlad but I think it is a 50/50 he will get it in.

-Nick

[Runscott]

I will offer one tiny bit of potential rubbish: I would trade Mattingly's 1989 for Raines' 1992.

[deadballfreaK]

Pleased with this year's class and I'll enjoy the inductions, but generally the HOF has gotten so screwed up that I'm not that interested. Plenty of guys in because they had high up cronies greasing the skids. Deserving guys who just played in the wrong city don't get a sniff. Now we have PED use. No way to decide who did and didn't. I generally just keep my own HOF in my head.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Not sure why Sheffield's name keeps coming up on MLB Channel all day for HOF. He was a known user, if Bonds & Clemens aren't getting in, no way Sheffield is. People are forgetting BALCO?

As an aside, since we talked all day about how dominating Randy Johnson & Pedro were as pitchers, just a moment to reflect back on 1986 and Mike Scott. You will recall the NY Mets were unstoppable that season, except when they played Houston and Mike Scott pitched. I'll always remember the NLCS, with Scott shutting out the Mets in Game 1 and again in Game 4 and then Game 6 going on forever with the Mets knowing that a loss would mean facing Scott again in Game 7. Of course the Mets ended up winning the longest playoff game in NL history and avoided Mike Scott in Game 7. To this day, both Darryl Strawberry & Dwight Gooden, the team's two biggest stars in 1986 will tell you that there was no way they were going to win a Game 7 against Scott.

[wolf441]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Not sure why Sheffield's name keeps coming up on MLB Channel all day for HOF. He was a known user, if Bonds & Clemens aren't getting in, no way Sheffield is. People are forgetting BALCO?

As an aside, since we talked all day about how dominating Randy Johnson & Pedro were as pitchers, just a moment to reflect back on 1986 and Mike Scott. You will recall the NY Mets were unstoppable that season, except when they played Houston and Mike Scott pitched. I'll always remember the NLCS, with Scott shutting out the Mets in Game 1 and again in Game 4 and then Game 6 going on forever with the Mets knowing that a loss would mean facing Scott again in Game 7. Of course the Mets ended up winning the longest playoff game in NL history and avoided Mike Scott in Game 7. To this day, both Darryl Strawberry & Dwight Gooden, the team's two biggest stars in 1986 will tell you that there was no way they were going to win a Game 7 against Scott.

+1 on Sheffield.

and Scott was clearly scuffing the ball in 1986.

[bcbgcbrcb]

C'mon, Steve, now that would be cheating.............

[Runscott]

Phil - thanks for the 86 memories. What an almost-magic year for Houston. I remember very well thinking "just get us to Scott". He was superman that year.

Regarding Sheffield, I watched mlb channel all day, and I didn't think there was much pro-Sheffield except for the one goober who wanted to ignore peds.

[Runscott]

Ryan - a hearty +1

McGriff definitely makes the HOAF, as does Delgado and many who somehow made the HOF. I also think there should be a HOL (hall of longevity) for some of the guys receiving forum tears.

[Runscott]

Gotcha. I personally do not have a problem with Sonny Jackson getting a vote. It is stupid but it does not put him in the hall.

[earlywynnfan]

Remember after Jim Deshaies retired, he said all he wanted to make his career complete was one HOF vote? He seemed to be having fun, and very down-to-earth. Some voter gave him one.