How many of us are there?

[rdixon1208]

Threads come up from time to time regarding the future of our hobby, and it's got me wondering...how many of us are there? I know of five pre-war collectors in the Houston area, one in San Antonio, and about five in the Dallas area. I've only been in the hobby for about three years, so I'm sure to meet more people in time, but that's not many people for one of the biggest (and best ) states in the Union.

So if you had to put a number on it, how many active pre-war baseball card collectors do you think there are?

[Jewish-collector]

My question is HOW MANY are not members or lurkers of this message board ?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by rdixon1208

so if you had to put a number on it, how many active pre-war baseball card collectors do you think there are?

3143

[triwak]

My guess: 3144
Thanks for the contest, Leon!!

[Matthew H]

If I had to guess I'd say there's more then 12 in Texas.

[sbfinley]

United States estimated population on June 22 2011 - 311,603,000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._by_population

Of that 311,603,000, around 75.7% are over the age of 18. That gives us around 235,883,471 "adults".
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

A PEW Research Center poll show that 46% of Americans follow sports. 28% percent only "somewhat" follow sports, so that leaves up 18% who follow sports "very close." I figure that you have to at least follow sports very closely to invest a fortune in century old cardboard. 18% of 235,883,471 equals 42,459,024 .
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/?ChartID=135

Taking into account that Baseball is likely your favorite sport if you are a pre-war baseball collector- According to the Sports Business Journal, 17% of American sports fans selected Baseball as their favorite sport. 17% of 42,459,024 is 7,218,034. So upwards of 7 million Americans love baseball more than any other sport.
http://www.goal.com/en-us/news/66/un...ns-call-soccer

Although kids aged 7-11 were the focus of this poll, it was the most relevant I could find and the ESPN/TNS Intersearch poll showed that 37% of children aged 7-11 collected sports cards. 49.8% of that 37% collected baseball. I believe it plausible that if 37% of all children age 7-11 collect sports cards then we can ascertain that of the 7 million Americans who "love" baseball at least 37% will dabble in sports cards during adulthood. 37% of 7,218,034 is 2,670,672. If 49.8% collect baseball that gives us 1,305,959 adult baseball card collectors.
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/D...tandclose=true

For the sake of argument, because google is running dry, let's say that one-third of adult baseball collectors "actively collect". 33.3% of 1,305,959 is 434,884 "Adult Americans actively collecting baseball cards".

On ebay there are 2,206,747 results for baseball cards, 34,380 of which were listed under the "Pre-WW2" era. Considering one can now argue ebay is the ultimate market for sports collectibles, 1.5% of the baseball card market is pre-war.
http://sports-cards.shop.ebay.com/Ba...=p3286.c0.m282

If the market is a reflection of the population, a fair argument, then 1.5%, or 19,589, of the adult baseball collector population actively collects pre-war.


That being said, I am feeling a little verklempt. Rhode Island is neither a road nor is it an island. Discuss.

[scooter729]

Kudos to you for all of that math, esp. considering it was posted at 4AM your local time!

[almostdone]

Originally Posted by Leon

3143

This is the first I've seen Leon so far off.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by almostdone

This is the first I've seen Leon so far off.

I want a recount!!! I can't believe there are 10,000+ pre-war baseball card collectors....take out the dealers and count just collectors....I think my number is closer than the other SWAG number that was deduced using the US population.....nothing against that guess, I just politely disagree with it. (not the population numbers, the collector numbers) ...regards

[judsonhamlin]

I think Leon's number is probably not too far off. From what I have seen, at the Nationals and the bigger regional shows, even when they were better (EPSCC, Strongsville, Robert Morris) and there are/were never more than a few hundred people focusing on pre-war cards (as opposed to the 50's/60's crowd). And, presuming that the committed collectors would go out of their way for a big show, I would think that a show like that might attract 5-10% of all collectors, then maybe 3000-5000 is a reasonable number.
Maybe Ted/Bill Z/Mike W or another pre-war dealer can confirm the numbers of customers they see at a typical show.

[deadballera]

how many are registered on this forum ?


I would guess total collectors to be closer to the 3,000 than the 5,000 range. Might even be in the low 2,000 range


Todd