"I can't believe what he just paid.."

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Posted By: bruce Dorskind

The Three Whales' Impact On The Prices
For Ultra High Grade Pre-War BB Cards

For the past 36 months, we have tracked every E Bay auction in which
we participated.

Our primary interest is in ultra high grade pre-World War II
cards. We identified three competitors (we will not name
names but many of you know them as "three whales" )

It was particularly interesting was to look at the impact that these three
collectors had on the final sales price.

When one or more of the whales bid, the final price zoomed to more
than 30% over the Vintage Card Prices average. If none of the three
whales bid, the final price was 25% below the Vintage Card
price average.

We also found that if one of the whales bid, there was almost no amount
one could bid to secure the card.

Our belief is that the pre-war ultra high grade card market is
dependent upon less than a half dozen active buyers.

If two or more of the three whales drop out, we can expect to witness
a severe drop in price.

What do you think?


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: peter ullman

Bruce...which whale are you...sperm or baleen? Sorry Bruce...that was uncalled for...not surprising though...when money is no object...the sky's the limit.

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Posted By: Fred C

I agree. It only takes two to drive the market. I've seen this on other types of cards that are lower grade, but tough cards (for us bottom feeders).

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Posted By: Matt

Bruce - perhaps the reason the "whales" may or may not bid on a card has to do with the card in question and therefore the premium for the card has less to do with their involvement then it does with the item being offered. In other words, your experiment has no control.

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Posted By: barrysloate

It takes two or three guys to drive up the market, but when they are done the cards they are competing for will be the ones that will fall. Timing is everything.

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Posted By: Alan

This thread reminds me of the Seinfeld episode when George is talking by phone to those Texas owners calling them sons of.... & ....

LOL

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Posted By: Eric B

That helps confirm what I have always believed. But it's interesting that the average is right smack in the middle of when they bid and when they don't.

The same thing happens to me on one particular non-sports set. If I bid on something I need it usually costs me $150. When I don't the other guy gets it for about $30. So I'm the Grouper of non-sports.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

(Another) Good post Bruce and absolutely true. There are a small number of very wealthy collectors who are big not only into the pre-war cards but also into 52 Topps, 53 Bowman, 53 Topps and a few others. Without exception they are interested in the highest grade possible. The high prices such as the $600,000 for the 51 Bowman Mantle PSA 10 are dependent upon the owner or the auction house successfully playing one of these off against the other.

However, collectors can fight back. Got an e-mail from a whale recently asking me not top be interested in a particular card and in return he would do same on a card that I was intertested in. For me trying to build psa 8 sets it just means I have to step aside frequently and let the whales battle it out and hopefully another copy will surface.

Jim

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Posted By: Matt

Jim - "Got an e-mail from a whale recently asking me not top be interested in a particular card and in return he would do same on a card that I was interested in."

I've always wondered about such arrangements; it's seems like it would be collusion and illegal, but I also see it is a buyer's yin to the seller's yang of potentially shilling.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Bruce is obviously right. It only takes one of the whales to skew the market and make it appear that prices are stronger than they truly are. For example, there was a PSA 7 T206 card I desperately wanted; I sniped very high and lost the card at around $1500; the winner was one of the big guys (a friend of mine who always -- and I mean always -- outsnipes my most outlandishly high snipes). Literally a week later the same card came up in PSA 7 (and there are about 6 examples of the card in PSA 7); I got it for $850.

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Posted By: leon

I thought the term "whales" was used in the gambling industry? Oh wait, sometimes cards are a gamble!! I think the precipitous DROP in higher grade (but not highest grade) PSA cards values have been a real eye opening to some folks. I am glad I don't have a ton of 8's right now... In speaking with the largest PSA auctioneer in the past few days he tells me that he thinks the 8 grade might no longer be the grade that will be highly sought after. It will be the 9 grade. Personally I like to collect cards so it doesn't matter at all to me. As for knowing things within the hobby with respect to large sales I would concur with Jim on that issue. Knowledge is king....he who has the most will be most successful. best regards

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Posted By: dennis

good post, somehow the major players ought to get in touch....i just wonder if that is possible?

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Posted By: JimCrandell

I do not agree with the largest auction house on this one. Every single one of the whales builds sets. In fact the vast majority of PSA vintage collectors are set builders. Although we are dealing with very wealthy people here, building sets in PSA 9 or better could be prohibitively expensive as well as unattainable as the cards in some cases do not exist.

As far as the drop in card values of high end PSA cards I think that this is isolated to a few sets and low pops. For the pre-war and 48-59 sets I am building I do not see any general decline in the prices on high grade cards. Trust me Leon as I building over 100 sets and stay on top of values.

Lastly as to collusion, I have never participated in this but I am not a buyer of the psa 9 Cobbs and Ruths--just give me an 8(or even better an 8.5 upon review) and I will be happy.

Jim

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Posted By: MVSNYC

good post bruce. this is something i've mentioned before when discussing the pricing on high-grade T206. i know the "three whales" that you speak of, and have sold/traded with all 3 of them many times. i am even proud to say that i outbid and won a PSA 9 T206 2 years ago from the biggest of the "whales".

when there is a card up for auction, and 2 or more of them need it...look out. fireworks.

be well.
michael sarno

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Posted By: Rich Klein

For those customers who come into card shops and purchase the modern high end wax boxes of a couple hundred dollars or more

I also realized watching this, of a old story once told me -- Hage's dairy cards when put on EBay were being sought after if needed by 2 very big collectors (one of which was the late Larry Fritsch) -- if these 2 collectors both needed the card, the EBay sale could be up to $500 -- if both had it -- the 3rd collector who had more patience would buy those cards for $30-50.


Regards
Rich

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Posted By: leon

From what I remember you said before it sounds like Joe will be giving you lots of 8.5's very soon. I am sure the thousands of other PSA 8 collectors will be overjoyed......best regards

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Michael,

Nice going--the Dons and the guy with a country named after him can be tough to beat. Also the Cali CEO would be tough to beat if he had to have the card. The whales identities change a bit as get into early post-war but same concept.

Jim

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Leon,

Likely you won't but I am sure many of my collecting friends will be happy for me. Law of averages says that if you submit 20,000 that you will get a fair number of 8.5s. Of course all the big collectors are resubmitting.

Jim

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Posted By: Brian

90% of all people think they are above average

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Steve Novella has been listing a Donlin seated PSA 8 for $4995; it just went in the SCP auction for $1300. Prices are falling.....

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Posted By: Jim VB

"The same thing happens to me on one particular non-sports set. If I bid on something I need it usually costs me $150. When I don't the other guy gets it for about $30. So I'm the Grouper of non-sports."

Shoot me an email when you get a second. Your thoughts echo mine exactly (in non-sports). I want to make sure I'm not your "other guy".

Jim VB

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Posted By: Steve Murray

Jim - "Got an e-mail from a whale recently asking me not top (sic) be interested in a particular card and in return he would do same on a card that I was interested in."

Matt- "I've always wondered about such arrangements; it's seems like it would be collusion and illegal, but I also see it is a buyer's yin to the seller's yang of potentially shilling."

I disagree Matt. We minnows do it all the time. If Patrick is keen on a particular catcher card that he knows that I too may be interested in an exchange of emails will settle it. No need to run up a fellow member. It's a matter of congeniality we all expect from fellow collectors.

Now if a Halla or Bohen comes up, Bob, Ben, Richard, Brian, Peter, and all of the other Z11 collectors just stand back because it will be dog eat dog

As for the whales we all know who they are. When I win one from a whale I know that I just paid at least two times what I would have but for him.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Jeff,

No doubt true for T206 psa 8s and low pops that are no longer but I do not see a generalized downturn--disagree?

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Posted By: Matt

"Jim - "Got an e-mail from a whale recently asking me not top (sic) be interested in a particular card and in return he would do same on a card that I was interested in."

Matt- "I've always wondered about such arrangements; it's seems like it would be collusion and illegal, but I also see it is a buyer's yin to the seller's yang of potentially shilling."

Steve - I disagree Matt. We minnows do it all the time. If Patrick is keen on a particular catcher card that he knows that I too may be interested in an exchange of emails will settle it. No need to run up a fellow member. It's a matter of congeniality we all expect from fellow collectors."


I didn't make the case on way or the other; just said I was conflicted about it. However, respectfully, saying that you do it all the time doesn't logically make it right.

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Posted By: Steve Murray

is that you and I have done it.

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Posted By: Matt

Steve - what we did was entirely different since I decided I wasn't interested at all, even at the minimum bid. I wasn't bowing out so as not to run the price up on you, knowing that you would outbid me anyway. But, even if what we did was the same, I can still be conflicted about it.

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Posted By: Bobby Binder

If auction houses are allowed to place reserves and then bid them up to make the acceptable sale. I see no reason why a group of collectors can not get together and decide who is going to bid on which card they want.

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Posted By: Joe D.

If I ever look to auction off any of my core collection...

I need to take the three whales out to dinner first (individually) and try to get them excited about my items.


With that.... I wonder to what extent the Auction Houses schmooze the three whales.

I am guessing instead of first class postage, heck instead of overnight delivery, the catalog arrives to a whale on horse-drawn chariot with trumpets blaring.
And that is just the tip of the iceberg.

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Posted By: JimCrandell

Joe D,

When the president of the largest auction house graced us with his presence in New York and his no comments when asked about their practices of taking creases out of cards, he had just come from a meeting with one of the whales who lives in a place that is not that easy to get to.

Jim

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Posted By: Bob

Steve: "We minnows do it all the time. If Patrick is keen on a particular catcher card that he knows that I too may be interested in an exchange of emails will settle it. No need to run up a fellow member. It's a matter of congeniality we all expect from fellow collectors."

Absolutely true. I have benefited from kind treatment from fellow collectors who bowed out and have often stepped aside on many cards, myself, when asked.

"Now if a Halla or Bohen comes up, Bob, Ben, Richard, Brian, Peter, and all of the other Z11 collectors just stand back because it will be dog eat dog."

I know It won't be pretty.

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

Jim, on just the T206s, the cards are coming down in value both for HOF and non-HOF players (and I'm just discussing PSA 7 - 8 grades). They're still above where they were 3-4 years ago but they are significantly off prices from a year or 18 months ago.

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Posted By: barrysloate

Want the Sloate pick of the day?

Buy PSA 7 T206's at today's levels. They may still go down a bit but they haven't been this affordable in a long time, and they are classics...and I have a bunch in my next auction.

Now that's objective advice!

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Barry,
Actually I agree... Michael and I had this same conversation last week.
I don't normally buy hi grade T206's already slabbed, but 7's are a bargain at today's prices. However, I recently started 2 new sets, so I'm not sure how many I can buy..... but I will be bidding on some. Be well Brian

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Posted By: Fred C

To prove this theory all we need is for someone to put an uncatalogued K-Bat up for auction. I have the feeling that there will be an audience of whale watchers waiting to see who gets harpooned for another $10K or so...

Edited to add: Yes, uncatalogued K-bats will go high. I meant that each bid increment would be $10K, not the final hammer. I remember a few K-bats on ebay a couple of years ago that started off easy and one ended up over $50K. Two "whales" (one you could call Shamu because he's a "personality" of sorts and the other another big collector of K-bats) flipped their tales and there was a heck of a wake in the collecting waters. Being a rank bottom feeding collector I sat in awe like Captain Ahab in a dinghy in the middle of the collecting ocean.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Fred,
If the KB was un-cataloged.... you better make it 100K....

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Posted By: barrysloate

I just sold a common one in VG-EX for 7.5K. An uncatalogued one would be about where Brian projected.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Barry,
If yours hadn't had the slight paper loss it would have sold for 15k to 20k.... Be well Brian

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Posted By: barrysloate

Brian- why do you think it would have sold for that much? It's a relatively common one as KBats go.

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Posted By: DMcD

Help! I'm stuck on this tropical rock 5000 miles from the action. All I have to do is turn my head away from the keyboard to see whales doing a nifty floorshow in the Pacific waters below. Wrong whales, right? So who da guys anyway? Any names forthcoming for us less in-the-know types? Would be grateful for the information, coconut wireless is fine, e-mail mo' bettah.

"Dons .. the guy with a country named after him .." - tantalizing clues. Don Bangladesh? Zimbabwe? Rhymes with a female body part. Dolores Latvia? Am I close?

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Barry,
Because it looks like it would have graded a 80 or 84... without the back damage,,,

Be well Brian

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

For T206 at PSA, they are #1, #2, and #5 Current Finest:

http://www.psacard.com/set%5Fregistry/display_rsets.chtml?setid=83&set_name=1909%2D11%20T206%20White%20Border

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Posted By: barrysloate

Brian- I'll say you are a tad optimistic on the price, although it did have a great front.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

OK Barry, 12K.... happy? but this means you are not Penske material.... or Play it Now for that matter.... Do you use a Rascal when you go to the Bodega??


PS When is your next auction....

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Posted By: barrysloate

George just recommended Jerry and Elaine invest in a robot butcher...never cared that much for episode 5, "The Stock Tip."

Yes, 12K makes me happy. We've got a deal. Next auction closes May 15.

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Posted By: DMcD

Thank you, Eric B.

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Posted By: Cobby33

I guess this means when 2-3 whales get bored or go broke, there will be a glut of overpriced cards flooding the market and it will re-adjust to normal prices. Cool.

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Posted By: Steve

"Jim - "Got an e-mail from a whale recently asking me not top (sic) be interested in a particular card and in return he would do same on a card that I was interested in."


It is wrong and illegal to do that. Assuming you (Jim) in this case was interested and did indeed back off.

Put yourself in the sellers shoes, 10 yrs from now you decide to sell, 2 or more persons conspire on who bids on what. Now do you still like it? I am amazed that people talk so openly about this. What would you do if a seller came on here and openly made the claim that he shills his auctions? Because basically you are doing that in reverse. The amount does not matter either.

I will now take the beating that surely will come my way.


Steve

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Posted By: bruce Dorskind

Dear Steve:

Whilst you may believe it is :"wrong" to call another bidder and ask
him not to bid on an item which you have an interest, we can not
believe that there is a single state in the United States that has
law forbidding such an action.

In fact, we have attended a plethora of coin and card auctions, where
major dealers sat in the audience and openly agreed that they would
not bid against one another.

We're not even sure if there is an ethical issue here. People across the
United States and the world, for that matter, will agree not to bid in
exchange for some form of quid pro quo in order to lower their price.

Thanks for your attention.


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Posted By: leon

Not taking sides on this one but how is two people conspiring to bid or not bid different than the auction house bidding on stuff to get to a reserve...in essence shilling....openly or not? I am not saying two wrongs make a right (insert any number of jokes here)....but really...I don't see too much difference....regards

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Posted By: Jeff Lichtman

It would just be awful if the auction houses suffered from a conspiracy to avoid bidding wars. Can you imagine if, say, auction houses used fake accounts to run up bidders? Or real accounts in which the owners of the accounts were unaware that they were bidding on lots -- but because they were friendly with the auction houses they were used anyway? Just awful. I'm sure many heads of auction houses will come on here and agree that such behavior is just awful.

<crickets chirping>