If you were collecting low grade T206's...

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Posted By: Dave

I've really enjoyed tangling with this set for the past six months. In that six months I've put together about fifty T206's for my personal collection that I haven't planned on turning over. My question if over the next two years, which is the best way to go about the set? As of now, I've only been taking in portrait cards. They seem to sell for higher amounts of money than the non-portraits (or maybe just seems that way to me because I'm buying them). Over the next two years, which direction would be best to go to get further along? Keep going with the portriats? non portraits? HOF'ers? Southern Leaguers? I guess the big question for debate is which sector of the set will jump up most in prices over the next couple years? Obviously whichever sector it is, I should be concentrating on now....

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Posted By: MVSNYC

RARITY!

what would make anyone think that a portrait of ted easterly would jump up more in value than a southern leaguer in the same grade? or ray demmitt, st. louis?

point being, IMO, you want to grab as many rarities as you can, NOW, before they go up in price even further...(i define that by: known rarities: elberfeld, demmitt, etc., but also southern leaguers, and cards only printed in the 150 series, or 460 series, etc.)...get lew lipset's book, bill heitman's book, and scot reader's book...study the team change cards, tuffer commons, etc. look at PSA's pop report, just as a "guide" to see how many of each card were graded, that will give you a reference point for general scarcity.

you can always find ted easterly in a grade of 5, 6, 7, etc. anyday on eBay...but how many george browne, washington cards do you see in those same grades? not many...

sounds like you are off to a good start, but you need to now "infill" with tuffer cards.

obviously it is personal preferene, but, as i have mentioned to you before...chase the rare cards!

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Posted By: Dave

Well, rarities are a given...obviously my budget is not a given. Almost any rarity, be it a Lenox back, be it a Southern Leaguer with hindu back...I'll end up picking those up in PSA 1's. My question is more based on which sector of the T206's will jump the most in prices by percentage..I guess rarities should be put aside.

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Posted By: Jason Carota

Dave,

I also collect low grade T206's. My focus since I began has been to collect the Red Sox and Braves teams and any other card that came along in my budget's range. Although I still want to piece together as much of the set as possible, I have found that my focus has changed slightly. Aside from the Boston teams, I have shifted more to collecting HOF'ers and stars. I feel that with the 100 year anniversary coming up, people who do not collect T206 (or do not collect vintage in general) may want to pick up a couple of pieces just to own a part of baseball and card collecting history. This area (HOF'ers/stars) is where I foresee a spike in prices.

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Posted By: Dave

You could be right Jason... I know with the portrait I collect I really feel the non-portraits are going to take a turn up in prices sooner or later...so the question is should I be picking those up now? Also it seems Southern Leaguers have really went up in value as of late.

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Posted By: Jason Carota

I would try and pick up the non-portraits of bigger names first, such as Johnson, Tinker, etc. I wouldn't worry too much about a steep hike with a non-portrait of Hooks Wiltse, for example.

Southern League cards do seem to be pretty hot. I hope they plateau at some point, so I can add a few to my set.

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Posted By: Darren

I agree that the stars of the day are bargains now, you essentially get them for the price of commons. Players such as Phillipe, Reulbach, H. Davis, Cravath, Donlin, Magee, Dooin, Donovan, etc are great to add to your collection anyway.

HOFers will not always be as available as they are today, get'em if you can.

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Posted By: Jason L

with that last sentence.
Why do you say the HOFer supply will dry up, relatively speaking?

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Posted By: Darren

More collectors less willing to let go of their "goodies" regardless of price.

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Posted By: JimB

I would recommend HOFs. I think with craze of registry based sets, commons in grades vg/ex 4 and above are overpriced in relation to HOFs. And these prices trickle down to the lower grades too. So relatively speaking, I think HOFs are the good deals right now and commons are a bit overpriced - at least in relation to HOFs. It may be strange to think that HOFs still have room to catch up to commons, but I think that is the case. I know you aren't collecting high-grade cards, but I think these values make their way down to the lower grades too. I think that when a common in PSA 8 goes for half of what a HOF goes for in the same grade, there is something off. Don't get me wrong, I understand pop rarity. I have paid high prices for some of my E93 commons in high grade, but as a rule I think HOFs should be significantly more valuable than commons. If an Easterly is worth $2500, then a Cobb bat off should be worth 40k in my book. But it probably sells for closer to 20k these days.
Just my .02.
JimB

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Posted By: Jason L

what if the T206 commons are actually the rarities?-(relative scarcity is higher than that of the HOFer card population)

True, HOFers should be more valuable/desirable, but if the supply is greater and better able to satisfy demand than is the supply of the common cards, then that group would be hard-pressed to keep pace with appreciation of the "commons"...

...I had to leave this post to do some work, and now as I come back, I have no idea what amazingly prescient point I was about to make!

but yes, the commons will remain disproportionately expensive in relation to the HOFers in the same grade, as long as the registry sets remain a popular method of collecting, I think...

And Darren makes a very interesting point as well, regarding perhaps, the demographics of the collecting base...if we are seeing a collector base that is in the "buy" phase of a long-term buy-and-hold cycle, it may be awhile before we see some of these rarer cards return to circulation...or that we see this kind of turnover again....VERY hard to say. I would postulate that EBAY has permanently raised the hobby's turnover, to some extent..,..but I think we have the perfect storm right now...lots of baby boomers with lots of home equity withdrawn, buying up their childhoods...and they may very well hold on until they pass on 20-30 years from now.

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Posted By: Dave

So do you guys see the Southern Leaguers tailing off in the next couple years or continuing an up and up with thier prices? Does anyone remember what a T206 Southern Leaguer in a PSA 5 was selling for two years ago? Now I would safely put them at $400+

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Posted By: MVSNYC

SLer PSA 5, 2 years ago? probably under $150.

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Posted By: Dave

Wow...250% return in two years...

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Posted By: MVSNYC

as i've mentioned before, about 2 years ago, i was buying the following commons:

PSA 6's @ $80-100
PSA 7's @ $150-200
PSA 8's @ $450-600

i have seen the greatest jump in the following:

high grade commons
ALL rare variations
ALL southern leaguers
Top-Tier HOFers (cobb, matty, young, johnson)

i have found that most of the other HOFers have remained "flat"...they have appreciated, don't get me wrong, but only the top-tier HOFers have really become untouchable.

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Posted By: steve

Slightly veering topic - check into PSA 5+ top tier HOF'ers in sets like Colgan's Chips, M116's, M101-4's, 1921/2 E-series, W502's, PX7 Domino Discs and the like. I have realized some very nice profit potential as these sets HOF'ers won't break the bank like T206's can. With some digging and luck, you can still occasionally find pop 1 of 3 or less cards.

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Posted By: Bob

Although it's becoming tougher and prices are rising, I would still look toward an eye with buying groups of cards, i.e. lots of 15 or more T206s, you can always sell your doubles on ebay. Check non-ebay auctions although you can still find some once in a while on ebay. Don't forget to check the category of "lots" of cards once in a while, sometimes sellers will put groups of prewar cards in the wrong category.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

So, Dave,

What approach did you decide to use???


Frank.

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Posted By: Dave

I've been sticking with the same ol' same ol'...low grade portraits for now...so, no change...yet.

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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

I used a buy what I found strategy at the beginning. After a bit I started leaving a second card of a player alone if I already had one of him, going for more different players. Then I decided to finish the minor leaguers. I got the regulars completed first, then the southern leaguers shortly thereafter. Now, I lack 2 Cobbs, 2 Lajoies, Mathewson's portrait, O'Hara with St. Louis, and 2 Youngs. My most recent T206 acquisition (of ones I lack) is Johnson's portrait, which is in the mail, expected in the hills of Kentucky this weekend.

A problem with how I'm finishing is that I perceive, maybe incorrectly, that the Cobbs and Youngs have gone up in value more than the regular cards. So moneywise, I should have bought those sooner. I'm glad I got the southern leaguers when I did. It would have been frustrating to go for a good period of time while I was saving up for one of the big cards. Still, as it now stands, I'll do well to get 2 cards a year the rest of the way. The Monster tames slowly, if at all.