Juan Soto -- looking like a bust for the Mets

[bk400]

I had my doubts about that signing, and the eye test is beginning to confirm those doubts. It's not just the fact that he's had a slow start to the season. Having watched him play now many times in a Mets uniform, I think he's a loafer on the field and on the base paths. I'm not sure if it is because he is just slow or if he is lazy. Or if he just doesn't care as much now that he will be billionaire if he manages his money properly.

Good take by the Yankees.

[bk400]

And my post above was BEFORE he hit the longest single in the history of baseball by not hustling out of the box.

[D. Bergin]

Not saying Soto hustled out of the box or anything, but didn't Alonso get thrown out at 2nd on a ball off the Green Monster earlier in the game?

Guys hit singles off the Green Monster, literally all the time.

[bk400]

He did indeed. He wasn't hustling either, although he also didn't go into an arrogant home run trot the way Soto did.

[jayshum]

I'm pretty sure the Mets would have plenty of teams willing to take Soto off their hands if they want to trade him.

[tiger8mush]

Originally Posted by jayshum

I'm pretty sure the Mets would have plenty of teams willing to take Soto off their hands if they want to trade him.

Yankees included

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by tiger8mush

Yankees included

I suspect that foolish pride, i.e. admitting that they erred, would stand in the way of such a sensible transaction by the Mets.

[Kevlo17]

Less then 2 months into a contract seems a bit early to be labeling it a bust, especially when the guy carries a 1.6 bWAR and a 133 ops+. Those numbers aren't up to Soto's career standards, but they are far from shabby.

There was a pretty vocal group of folks that labeled Lindor's contract a bust too early in the contract, but would be hard pressed to find someone who feels that way now. I think Soto has earned the benefit of the doubt to let this one simmer a bit as well.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by bk400

He did indeed. He wasn't hustling either, although he also didn't go into an arrogant home run trot the way Soto did.

Maybe if he did, he wouldn’t have gotten thrown out at 2nd base.

[D. Bergin]

Yaz probably threw out 5-10 guys a year whose ego couldn’t handle smacking a ball off the Green Monster and settling for a single.

Jim Rice even got pretty good at it later in his career.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Kevlo17

Less then 2 months into a contract seems a bit early to be labeling it a bust, especially when the guy carries a 1.6 bWAR and a 133 ops+. Those numbers aren't up to Soto's career standards, but they are far from shabby.

There was a pretty vocal group of folks that labeled Lindor's contract a bust too early in the contract, but would be hard pressed to find someone who feels that way now. I think Soto has earned the benefit of the doubt to let this one simmer a bit as well.

A fair, dispassionate challenge. But simmering dispassionately isn't really a thing for long suffering Mets fans like us!

So basically, Juan Soto is producing Teoscar Hernandez type numbers right now, which would be fine, but Teoscar is on a 3-year, $66mm contract, while Soto is playing on a contract that is bigger than that of Ohtani.

Speaking of Ohtani, I also watch a lot of Dodgers games. Mostly to torture myself with envy. Forget the home runs. That guy Ohtani beats out so many infield singles. He turns hard hit balls that don't quite make it to the wall into doubles and turns doubles into the corner into triples. And he goes to the f**king Dodgers on a $700mm contract -- mostly deferred -- and helps them win a ring in his first year. And the way karma for the Mets seem to work, he's probably going to come back just in time to bail out their rotation and pitch in September, make Dave Roberts look like a genius, and ensure the Mets don't make it to the World Series again this year.

Meanwhile, we've got Soto, who looks like (and has even come close to saying it out loud by throwing shade at Pete Alonso) he wishes he still were playing for the Yankees.

And, as if on cue, we've got Carlos Mendoza now trying to explain Soto:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...s-mets-manager

Ohtani was also on a new team and on a massive contract. How many times did Dave Roberts have to justify to the press why Ohtani wasn't hustling?

[wagnerj03]

GepmtHIXIAAarKC.jpg

[Peter_Spaeth]

It's May. Come on.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's May. Come on.

Exactly. Imagine what he's going to be like when it's September and he's tired.

[Snapolit1]

People never tire of saying stupid things based on small samples.

Last May Lindor was the worst contract in baseball history. Now this May it's Soto. Next year it will be some other guy. Probably Pete.

Keeps sports radio going all day and all night.

[packs]

Same guy who says this about Soto would have been calling Judge a bum for hitting 207 over March and April last year.

If anyone needs a reminder, Judge went on to win MVP.

[bk400]

Lindor was never accused of dogging it, as far as I remember. He was accused of sucking relative to his contract value, but that's different.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

People never tire of saying stupid things based on small samples.

Last May Lindor was the worst contract in baseball history. Now this May it's Soto. Next year it will be some other guy. Probably Pete.

Keeps sports radio going all day and all night.

In 46 games in 2020 Shohei hit .190. Obviously he was DOA.

[bk400]

I would love to be proven wrong and see the Mets go on to win the World Series this year. And see Soto evolve into the second coming of Keith Hernandez in terms of fan base love.

But I think Soto is a bad attitude guy. Lindor, Judge and Ohtani have all gone through rough stretches, but they are all good attitude guys.

To be honest, it should have been a giant red flag for the Mets when Soto showed that he was willing to leave the Yankees -- where he seemed to have been loved by everyone and fit in well and made the WS -- for an extra 0.65% and a luxury box for his family.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by bk400

To be honest, it should have been a giant red flag for the Mets when Soto showed that he was willing to leave the Yankees

C'mon this is just silly!

[John1941]

I say this is a bereaved Yankees fan:

I wouldn't give up on Soto so soon. He's a generational talent. His attitude may not be perfect but remember that he's still just 26; he has time to mature. There's cause for concern but this is not a doomsday Soto scenario.

This doesn't address attitude concerns, but I think Soto's been unlucky thus far this season. If you go on Baseball Savant and look at Soto's Statcast numbers, he has an expected batting average of .309 and expected slugging percentage of .595. With his walks, that gives him an expected weighted on-base percentage of .433, which is elite. If he keeps on hitting the ball like that his stats will fall in line.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

C'mon this is just silly!

You cut off the last part of my quote. The part about the reason for his leaving was an extra 0.65 percent and a luxury box for his family.

I can see leaving your job for 0.65 percent more and, say, a partial education stipend for your kids, if you are making $30,000 a year and trying to feed a family while living hand to mouth. But not when it is 0.65 percent on $760 million (plus whatever it costs for a luxury box).

[bk400]

Originally Posted by John1941

I say this is a bereaved Yankees fan:

I wouldn't give up on Soto so soon. He's a generational talent. His attitude may not be perfect but remember that he's still just 26; he has time to mature. There's cause for concern but this is not a doomsday Soto scenario.

This doesn't address attitude concerns, but I think Soto's been unlucky thus far this season. If you go on Baseball Savant and look at Soto's Statcast numbers, he has an expected batting average of .309 and expected slugging percentage of .595. With his walks, that gives him an expected weighted on-base percentage of .433, which is elite. If he keeps on hitting the ball like that his stats will fall in line.

This makes me feel a bit better about it. Fingers crossed...

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by bk400

Exactly. Imagine what he's going to be like when it's September and he's tired.

He saving his energy not running out doubles...

[SyrNy1960]

I’m still pissed Soto didn’t stay with the Yankees, but he will be ok. Months from now, this threat will be forgotten ⚾️

[D. Bergin]

Wish the Yankees could have kept him, but Cohen appealed to Soto's ego better then Hal did...who didn't seem to want to be bothered beyond throwing out the contract at Soto part.

I don't begrudge Soto for leaving. He spent 1 year with the Yankees, and had been used as essentially a bargaining chip multiple times in his young career already.

Not sure why he owed them any loyalty. He was a rental from the get go, and he got them to the World Series, just like they were hoping.

....and then it was the rest of the team who bungled it from there. Soto carried them as far as he could in the Playoffs to.

Wish we had Michael King back, but another upside of that trade is that throw in, Trent Grisham, is now having a bit of a breakout season. Don't know how long it will last (again, it's only May), but if we also get a couple serviceable years out of him, it will make the pitching prospects we gave up for Soto, hurt a lot less.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Until proven otherwise, Juan Soto is a generational talent. It might be proven otherwise -- it's baseball and anything can happen to a young player -- but 7 weeks don't mean a thing.

[packs]

I think everyone has to discount Soto's year on the Yankees too. Hitting in front of Judge is going to make a lot of guys look good. It will be tough for anyone to replicate the same numbers while not hitting in front of Judge. Alonso really isn't in the same class.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I think everyone has to discount Soto's year on the Yankees too. Hitting in front of Judge is going to make a lot of guys look good. It will be tough for anyone to replicate the same numbers while not hitting in front of Judge. Alonso really isn't in the same class.

Not sure how much difference that really makes statistically other than maybe runs scored. I think it may be one of those things that sounds good but doesn't hold up.

[packs]

Or you could look at his statistics. He put up the highest WAR of his career on the Yankees and aside from the strike shortened 2020 season, also his highest OPS+. He also set a career high in home runs.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by packs

Or you could look at his statistics. He put up the highest WAR of his career on the Yankees and aside from the strike shortened 2020 season, also his highest OPS+. He also set a career high in home runs.

Being a left handed power hitter in Yankee Stadium could also have something to do with his stats last year.

[D. Bergin]

The guy walked 129 times with Aaron Judge sitting in the on deck circle, waiting to hit next.

That speaks to a certain skill-set and batters eye that has almost disappeared from the game of baseball.

I'd say Judge benefited from him, just as much as he benefited from Judge. Guys on base already, now you have to pitch to Judge. Not like there were any other guys on that team with a passable OBP, to help Judge drive in as many runs as he did.

[packs]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Being a left handed power hitter in Yankee Stadium could also have something to do with his stats last year.

The guys hitting in front of Judge most often this season are Grisham and Goldschmidt. Many have commented on the starts they’ve gotten off to this year.

Judge is again leading the league in RBIs and leading all three Triple Crown categories without Soto and without batting left handed, and he is good everywhere when you consider his nearly identical OPS at home and on the road. I think it's time to accept that Judge is the X factor. You are going to get better at bats with him behind you.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

The guys hitting in front of Judge most often this season are Grisham and Goldschmidt. Many have commented on the starts they’ve gotten off to this year.

Judge is again leading the league in RBIs and leading all three Triple Crown categories without Soto and without batting left handed, and he is good everywhere when you consider his nearly identical OPS at home and on the road. I think it's time to accept that Judge is the X factor. You are going to get better at bats with him behind you.

How does it help the opponent to pitch to Soto in a way such that he has better hitting stats, if Judge is coming up next? Don't you want to maximize keeping Soto off base?

[packs]

The first inning is the first inning but later in games if there are men on base and Soto is up with Judge on deck after him, the pitcher is thinking about Judge. If he gets behind 2-0 to Soto, he's going throw him an equivalent pitch as if it were 3-0.

Your suggestion also plays into better at bats. You want to get Soto out so you don't have to pitch to Judge. The best way to get somebody out who is known for being patient and walking a ton, is to throw strikes. Strikes are the better pitches to hit. But you're still thinking about Judge.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

The first inning is the first inning but later in games if there are men on base and Soto is up with Judge on deck after him, the pitcher is thinking about Judge. If he gets behind 2-0 to Soto, he's going throw him an equivalent pitch as if it were 3-0.

I guess I just don't see it, and certainly don't see how it's going to make a big difference in the overall numbers. If there are men on base, I'd be sufficiently worried about Soto that I am not going to start thinking about Judge, and I certainly don't see why you would then pitch to Soto in such a way that INCREASES his hitting stats making it more likely he too gets on base for Judge.

[packs]

You don't want to walk Soto and add to the Judge problem. That's why you pitch to him. If a pitcher feels forced to throw strikes, strikes are the pitches you want to be seeing.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

You don't want to walk Soto and add to the Judge problem. That's why you pitch to him. If a pitcher feels forced to throw strikes, strikes are the pitches you want to be seeing.

And yet look how many walks Soto had. AND, I would argue that that rationale might apply to a weak hitter, not a superstar like Soto. Giving him better pitches to hit because you are afraid to walk him seems unlikely to be beneficfial.

[packs]

He is universally known for having a great eye for the ball and he has huge power on top of that. You're suggesting that pitchers were still scared of him. I'd agree.

I think you're also misinterpreting what I mean by getting better at bats. I'm talking about a pitcher feeling pressure to throw strikes because he doesn't want to put Soto on base with Judge coming up. Strikes are the best pitches to hit. If a pitcher feels pressured to throw them, that can only benefit the hitter.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I dunno, if I'm pitching, I'm not worried so much about not walking Soto as I am about making sure he doesn't hit me, in which case I am not going to pitch him any differently just because Judge is on deck.

[D. Bergin]

I think it was a pretty symbiotic hitting relationship that Judge and Soto had. Judge helped Soto and Soto helped Judge.

Neither was exactly a parasite.

Two guys with .400+ OBP hitting next to each other, are only going to help each other.

As far as Goldschmidt and Grisham. Goldschmidt knowing how to hit a baseball isn't news, and Grisham moved up in the lineup AFTER he started to produce at the bottom of the lineup, and has rarely been in the vicinity of Judge's at bats.

[bk400]

https://www.si.com/mlb/juan-soto-did...raight-pitches

Soto last night. Generational attitude.

[bk400]

I also think that this "generational" label is being batted around too casually. Soto has had a great career so far, but generational?

In my mind, this generation's only generational players are as follows:

Pujols
Trout
Judge
Ohtani
Kershaw
Verlander
Ichiro

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bk400

I also think that this "generational" label is being batted around too casually. Soto has had a great career so far, but generational?

In my mind, this generation's only generational players are as follows:

Pujols
Trout
Judge
Ohtani
Kershaw
Verlander
Ichiro

I wouldn't put Ichiro on that list, myself. I think the idea on Soto is that he is a generational talent, not that he has achieved enough yet.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Since it's a card forum, here are my Sotos which are sinking like the Titanic lol.

[sbfinley]

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Since it's a card forum, here are my Sotos which are sinking like the Titanic lol.

I see your Sotos (nice, btw), and I raise you a Strawberry. The glory days in right field at Shea!

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I wouldn't put Ichiro on that list, myself. I think the idea on Soto is that he is a generational talent, not that he has achieved enough yet.

I see the challenge on Ichiro, but the guy had 10 consecutive years of 200 base hits, which beats the next guy (Wade Boggs at 7 consecutive) by a lot. The only other guy with 10 seasons (non-consecutive) of 200 base hits is Pete Rose. So Ichiro, who came over without the benefit of his early prime years, has a case for being the best contact hitter of two generations of players. Him, Tony Gwynn, and Wade Boggs.

As for the distinction between a generational talent and a generational player, I'll just say that Dwight Gooden was a generational talent and Hank Aaron wasn't. But one was a generational player, while the other wasn't. For me, the generational talent label is a bit meaningless.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bk400

I see the challenge on Ichiro, but the guy had 10 consecutive years of 200 base hits, which beats the next guy (Wade Boggs at 7 consecutive) by a lot. The only other guy with 10 seasons (non-consecutive) of 200 base hits is Pete Rose. So Ichiro, who came over without the benefit of his early prime years, has a case for being the best contact hitter of two generations of players. Him, Tony Gwynn, and Wade Boggs.

As for the distinction between a generational talent and a generational player, I'll just say that Dwight Gooden was a generational talent and Hank Aaron wasn't. But one was a generational player, while the other wasn't. For me, the generational talent label is a bit meaningless.

It's meaningful until a player has proven he can't live up to it. IMO Soto is not there yet, not even close. Although he may never get another hit at this rate lol.

[bk400]

Just when you think the Dodgers have that bed-sh*tting, soul-destroying blown save + long extra inning loss that might sap their confidence a bit, the Mets collectively let them off the hook.

I can't say it was Soto's fault, but he certainly didn't help.