Sports Card Dealers on the Triumphs and Challenges of 2024

[parkplace33]

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...enges-of-2024/

More than two years out from the COVID boom sports card dealers are still slinging plenty of cardboard.

“We’ve completely turned over inventory in the last three months,” said Austin Kasarda of Midlo Sports Cards in Midlothian, TX. “It’s been great from a sales perspective.”

Kasarda made the long drive to the final Philly Show of 2024 last week, knowing he’d have a hungry base of customers at an event that traditionally draws customers who are ready to spend.

Interesting article. And the Philly Show was gangbusters on that Friday.

I was wrong about the card market in 2024. I expect to see strong prices on vintage material at shows.

[BobbyStrawberry]

I have to wonder if prewar is doing as well. My sense is that it's not.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

I have to wonder if prewar is doing as well. My sense is that it's not.

The Card Ladder index for pre-war shows a downward trend for the last two years

Comparing that with other categories is interesting

[Exhibitman]

Every index and sample has its internal bias. Even the S & P 500 is way up primarily due to 7 stocks; the Magnificent Seven are 30% of the index by value and their being up 66% this year is the bulk of the index's gain for the year. I quibble with the Card Ladder definition of vintage. Pre-1974 is way different than later and 1983 is full on junk wax.

That said, I keep a running spreadsheet on 100 or so pre-1980 sports cards. Mostly pre-1947, but a good run of big names in mainstream issues before 1970. After inputting the latest data, my 'index' is basically flat for the year. It is down 20% from the crazy COVID sugar high.

The first-tier legends in all sports are hanging in or in some cases going up. Even in lower grades, the Ruths and Robinsons are staying strong and demand for them is unlikely to go down as the hordes of newbie collectors cutting their teeth on ultramodern cards become more sophisticated in their collecting tastes. That PSA 1 Goudey Ruth is an entry point, not a beater, which is why it has staying power.

Ordinary cards in ordinary condition of middle of the road HOF talents are down substantially.

Rare issues continue to do well, as they always seem to do if and when they surface. You come to market with one of those seldom-seen issues, you are pretty much guaranteed to touch off a bidding war.

Mainstream postwar vintage is largely a buyer's market except at the tippy top of the Registry caliber material. Like the 1975 Topps commons in PSA 10 that went for $33,000 each this fall. Nevermind that there were at least two people willing to throw down the Amex black card over a $2 card in a $32,998 plastic holder, look at the power of the Registry to make a $2 card into a treasure. “The illusion has become real, and the more real it becomes, the more desperately they want it. Capitalism at its finest.” Gordon Gekko. I don’t know whether to be impressed or horrified.

Then there is modern. I've tried repeatedly to sell the accumulation of post-1989 cards I have and except for certain players and issues, they are basically unsellable even at shows except in bulk at a fraction of a cent each. Maybe. In 1980s baseball, I can move the big rookies (Ripken, Boggs, Gwynn, etc.) and Bo Jackson, and not much else. In the 1990s, there's Jeter, Griffey and the rest rots. 1980s-1990s basketball actually does better, relatively speaking: more players are sellable. Hockey and football basically do not exist except for a few superstars. Every show I attend is swimming in shiny crap at a deep discount.

[tjisonline]

Great analysis by you and Don.

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Every index and sample has its internal bias. Even the S & P 500 is way up primarily due to 7 stocks; the Magnificent Seven are 30% of the index by value and their being up 66% this year is the bulk of the index's gain for the year.

That said, I keep a running spreadsheet on 100 or so pre-1980 sports cards. Mostly pre-1947, but a good run of big names in mainstream issues before 1970. After inputting the latest data, my 'index' is basically flat for the year. It is down 20% from the crazy COVID sugar high.

The first-tier legends in all sports are hanging in or in some cases going up. Even in lower grades, the Ruths and Robinsons are staying strong and demand for them is unlikely to go down as the hordes of newbie collectors cutting their teeth on ultramodern cards become more sophisticated in their collecting tastes. That PSA 1 Goudey Ruth is an entry point, not a beater, which is why it has staying power.

Ordinary cards in ordinary condition of middle of the road HOF talents are down substantially. Rare issues continue to do well, as they always seem to do if and when they surface. You come to market with one of those seldom-seen issues, you are pretty much guaranteed to touch off a bidding war.

Mainstream postwar vintage is largely a buyer's market except at the tippy top of the Registry caliber material. Like the 1975 Topps commons in PSA 10 that went for $33,000 each this fall. Nevermind that there were at least two people willing to throw down the Amex black card over a $2 card in a $32,998 plastic holder, look at the power of the Registry to make a $2 card into a treasure. “The illusion has become real, and the more real it becomes, the more desperately they want it. Capitalism at its finest.” Gordon Gekko. I don’t know whether to be impressed or horrified.

Then there is modern. I've tried repeatedly to sell the accumulation of post-1989 cards I have and except for certain players and issues, they are basically unsellable even at shows except in bulk at a fraction of a cent each. Maybe. In 1980s baseball, I can move the big rookies (Ripken, Boggs, Gwynn, etc.) and Bo Jackson, and not much else. In the 1990s, there's Jeter, Griffey and the rest rots. 1980s-1990s basketball actually does better, relatively speaking: more players are sellable. Hockey and football basically do not exist except for a few superstars. Every show I attend is swimming in shiny crap at a deep discount.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by tjisonline

Great analysis by you and Don.

+1

Appreciate it, guys.

[Kutcher55]

Really cool charts thanks for sharing. I’d say you can make a case the recent uptick in all categories has to be at least somewhat connected to the crypto bull rush of the past two months or so. In that context, the value gains seem fairly muted to me. That said, it’s good to see prices bouncing maybe slightly up. I wouldn’t say I’m that bullish on vintage (pre or post war) but it is fun as ever to collect and swap etc. plenty of energy at recent shows.

[Kutcher55]

I guess my other takeaway is that there are probably a lot more crypto bros in the Pokeman market than there are in vintage.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

I guess my other takeaway is that there are probably a lot more crypto bros in the Pokeman market than there are in vintage.

Thank goodness for that, pre-war is already too expensive.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Every index and sample has its internal bias. Even the S & P 500 is way up primarily due to 7 stocks; the Magnificent Seven are 30% of the index by value and their being up 66% this year is the bulk of the index's gain for the year. I quibble with the Card Ladder definition of vintage. Pre-1974 is way different than later and 1983 is full on junk wax.

That said, I keep a running spreadsheet on 100 or so pre-1980 sports cards. Mostly pre-1947, but a good run of big names in mainstream issues before 1970. After inputting the latest data, my 'index' is basically flat for the year. It is down 20% from the crazy COVID sugar high.

The first-tier legends in all sports are hanging in or in some cases going up. Even in lower grades, the Ruths and Robinsons are staying strong and demand for them is unlikely to go down as the hordes of newbie collectors cutting their teeth on ultramodern cards become more sophisticated in their collecting tastes. That PSA 1 Goudey Ruth is an entry point, not a beater, which is why it has staying power.

Ordinary cards in ordinary condition of middle of the road HOF talents are down substantially.

Rare issues continue to do well, as they always seem to do if and when they surface. You come to market with one of those seldom-seen issues, you are pretty much guaranteed to touch off a bidding war.

Mainstream postwar vintage is largely a buyer's market except at the tippy top of the Registry caliber material. Like the 1975 Topps commons in PSA 10 that went for $33,000 each this fall. Nevermind that there were at least two people willing to throw down the Amex black card over a $2 card in a $32,998 plastic holder, look at the power of the Registry to make a $2 card into a treasure. “The illusion has become real, and the more real it becomes, the more desperately they want it. Capitalism at its finest.” Gordon Gekko. I don’t know whether to be impressed or horrified.

Then there is modern. I've tried repeatedly to sell the accumulation of post-1989 cards I have and except for certain players and issues, they are basically unsellable even at shows except in bulk at a fraction of a cent each. Maybe. In 1980s baseball, I can move the big rookies (Ripken, Boggs, Gwynn, etc.) and Bo Jackson, and not much else. In the 1990s, there's Jeter, Griffey and the rest rots. 1980s-1990s basketball actually does better, relatively speaking: more players are sellable. Hockey and football basically do not exist except for a few superstars. Every show I attend is swimming in shiny crap at a deep discount.

Great breakdown.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Thank goodness for that, pre-war is already too expensive.

Exactly, we just have to go against Silicon Valley, Wall Street, doctor, and lawyer money in our space.

Thank goodness for that!

[3-2-count]

I sure haven't witnessed this downward trend on the pre war material that I'm buying.

[bandrus1]

low population 19th century sure seems expensive

[brunswickreeves]

There are 100 individual cards I’ve tracked from ‘18-‘24: 32 pre-war and 68 post-war. Excluding 2019, these collectively have outperformed both the S&P and Dow, with cards averaging a 41% return (gross). Of these, pre-war is approx 10% points average greater than post-war.

A good 2024 or any year will depend on volume, turnover velocity, ROI, opportunity cost, and intangibles like goodwill, etc. I hope for dealers to have continued prosperity, because it enables more acquisition opportunities for collectors and investors.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

There are 100 individual cards I’ve tracked from ‘18-‘24: 32 pre-war and 68 post-war. Excluding 2019, these collectively have outperformed both the S&P and Dow, with cards averaging a 41% return (gross). Of these, pre-war is approx 10% points average greater than post-war.

A good 2024 or any year will depend on volume, turnover velocity, ROI, opportunity cost, and intangibles like goodwill, etc. I hope for dealers to have continued prosperity, because it enables more acquisition opportunities for collectors and investors.

Do you mind posting what 100 cards are in this chart?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

I sure haven't witnessed this downward trend on the pre war material that I'm buying.

It only applies to cards we sell.

[brunswickreeves]

Per request for examples, below are some of each for pre and post-war per player. This is a point in time over the ‘18-‘24 horizon, so there may have been better returns outside the scope of this data set (excludes significant outliers such as 52 Topps Mantle and T206 Wagner).

[Rhotchkiss]

From someone who has sold a shit-ton of blue(er) chip, prewar vintage this year (2024), I can tell you almost everything is down from this time last year, and likely 20% from 2022. And I think prices have come down over the course of 2024 (the same card sold for more in February than in November). This includes Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, and other big names. Other than super-high grades, all t206s are down and rare backs are down a ton from 2021-2022; likely thanks first to the David Hall auctions and then from the Brady Hill floods of 2023 in PWCC and Heritage.

Some things are up, however. These include 1914 and 1915 cracker jacks, D304s, super tough backs and/or rare cards of blue chip HOFers (other than t206), and super high grade examples of key sets, like t206 and 33 Goudey.

I think the “white glove collector” is still buying and paying whatever it takes to get what they want. Otherwise, I think things have come down a good deal over the past year. Demand remains strong, which means values remain solid - so hardly a bubble or a crash.

I did very well selling this year, but mostly because of profits made on pre 2020 purchases. I think I took a loss on half the items I acquired in the past two years.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It only applies to cards we sell.

All day long.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

From someone who has sold a shit-ton of blue(er) chip, prewar vintage this year (2024), I can tell you almost everything is down from this time last year, and likely 20% from 2022. And I think prices have come down over the course of 2024 (the same card sold for more in February than in November). This includes Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, and other big names. Other than super-high grades, all t206s are down and rare backs are down a ton from 2021-2022; likely thanks first to the David Hall auctions and then from the Brady Hill floods of 2023 in PWCC and Heritage.

Some things are up, however. These include 1914 and 1915 cracker jacks, D304s, super tough backs and/or rare cards of blue chip HOFers (other than t206), and super high grade examples of key sets, like t206 and 33 Goudey.

I think the “white glove collector” is still buying and paying whatever it takes to get what they want. Otherwise, I think things have come down a good deal over the past year. Demand remains strong, which means values remain solid - so hardly a bubble or a crash.

I did very well selling this year, but mostly because of profits made on pre 2020 purchases. I think I took a loss on half the items I acquired in the past two years.

Ryan, thank you for your insight. Your transparency is a gift for this board. Data, charts, etc. is great. First hand lived experience is unmatched.