2025 HOF -- Early Thoughts

[todeen]

I'm very excited for the 2025 HOF voting. First, Ichiro will be on the ballot. I live in WA, and I was here when he debuted. Sodo Mojo.

But the rest of the ballot will be very intriguing as well! Billy Wagner narrowly missed election this year, so there is a chance we could be talking about a class of 4! Wagner, Ichiro, Sabathia, and maybe Andruw Jones.

In addition, I am very interested to see how voters respond to Felix Hernandez. Here is a comment from Jayson Stark and the changing role of starting pitchers. "Speaking of prodigious peaks, King Félix has a fun, big-peak case himself. Check out his seven outrageously great seasons from 2009-15: 104-65, a Cy Young Award, two other top-two Cy Young finishes and a 136 ERA+. Sadly, he was never the same after that. But he has a certain Johan Santana-ish appeal, except with a longer career. He’s also a litmus test of how we’ll look at modern aces in the future. So it wouldn’t shock me if he got elected at some point." You can find the article here in THE ATHLETIC. It's worth a read to see the wandering thoughts of Stark, Gammons, and Rosenthal about the HOF.

And Rosenthal's comments: "Hernández is an interesting case. From 2006 through ‘15, he won a Cy Young Award and finished in the top eight five other times. His ERA-plus in that span was 27 percent above league average. But he also threw the most innings of any pitcher in the majors, and eventually he wore down, his career ending at 33. Should it be held against him that the Mariners rode him too hard?"

https://theathletic.com/5208807/2024...me-roundtable/

I think with the evolving use of starting pitchers, that Felix Hernandez might get in one day with a veterans committee. He played on some teams that were absolutely horrible and affected his counting stats. We've had this conversation about Hernandez before, but IMO with each decade that passes with fewer workhorse pitchers, Felix Hernandez's peak numbers will stand out even more.

[packs]

I actually think Johan was the litmus test for a pitcher like Felix and the result was a one and done appearance.

His body of work is more impressive than Felix on the surface: Two Cy Youngs and a Triple Crown. But even that wasn't enough to garner 5%.

[todeen]

Comparing them on Baseball Reference, Hernandez has nearly two more seasons of pitching than Johan. Looking only at the W-L records, I don't think we would look at Hernandez as less than Johan if the Mariners weren't so gawd awful horrible. His x2 CY runner-up finishes could have been greatly improved if his teammates could have picked him up.
Johan W-L = 139-78
Felix W-L = 169-136

2009 = 19 W, 5 L, 2.49 ERA, 34 GS, 238 IP (ERA leader and GS leader) 2nd place CY
2014 = 15 W, 6 L, 2.14 ERA, 34 GS, 236 IP (ERA leader and GS leader) 2nd place CY


About his career quality starts: Felix Hernandez has 118 career non-win quality starts – one more than Warren Spahn had in his career. He is 0-42 with a 2.19 ERA in those 118 games started.

Had Felix pitched for a team that wasn't a bottom dweller, we could be talking about him reaching 200 wins. Those Mariners teams were awful, and they affected Felix more negatively than they affected Ichiro.

[packs]

I don't disagree. I'm very interested to see how Felix does. I think Johan had a more HOF ready resume with his ERA titles, CYs and Triple Crown and was very surprised at how little consideration he got.

I'm also interested to see if CC is a first ballot HOFer or not. Those 3,000 K's should get him in, but first try? Not sure.

[G1911]

Wagner is almost a sure thing.

Jones and Beltran likely increase and move closer but miss.

Ichiro makes it, possibly at 100%

Sabathia makes it or makes it the next year.

No one else is a serious candidate.

[gunboat82]

I could see Hernandez (and Santana) getting in on Contemporary Committee votes if they look at advanced stats.

Each had a higher WAR total than Koufax, Lemon, Bender, Bill Foster, Wilhelm, Dean, Pennock, Joss, Chesbro, Goose Gossage, Jack Morris. We can look skeptically at imperfect stats like WAR. But if the point is to measure sustained greatness relative to contemporary peers, some of these pitchers don't have anything on Hernandez or Santana.

[Mike D.]

CC Sabathia will be interesting to see. I'm hearing a lot of people talking about him as a potential 1st ballot inductee.

Yet Andy Pettitte, who's pretty close to Sabathia in terms of career numbers, is lingering in the teens in terms of vote percentage.

I actually think they both belong, but will CC get 75% plus while Pettitte doesn't break 20%? There is the PED thing with Pettitte, but again...that's a big gap.

[packs]

Pettitte will be one of the few pitchers with 100 wins over losses that isn't in the HOF and I think only Clemens joins him in that club.

He would be one of the lowest tiered HOFers in but absent his PED scandal, Pettitte was a beast. Definitely one of those "you had to see him play" guys but nobody in New York ever worried about the game if Andy was pitching.

The guy pitched for 18 years and never had a sub 500 record in a season.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

Pettitte will be one of the few pitchers with 100 wins over losses that isn't in the HOF and I think only Clemens joins him in that club.

He would be one of the lowest tiered HOFers in but absent his PED scandal, Pettitte was a beast. Definitely one of those "you had to see him play" guys but nobody in New York ever worried about the game if Andy was pitching.

The guy pitched for 18 years and never had a sub 500 record in a season.

Bob Caruthers comes to mind as qualifying, 218 and 99 record. Can't think of another one.

[packs]

Yeah I wasn't sure whether to count Caruthers or not since he's technically not eligible for the HOF. Or maybe he is? I see he's credited with 9 seasons as a pitcher but has a 10th counted as a batter.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by packs

Yeah I wasn't sure whether to count Caruthers or not since he's technically not eligible for the HOF. Or maybe he is? I see he's credited with 9 seasons as a pitcher but has a 10th counted as a batter.

He appeared in a game in 10 seasons, meeting the qualification for the Hall.

Originally Posted by packs

Pettitte will be one of the few pitchers with 100 wins over losses that isn't in the HOF and I think only Clemens joins him in that club.

And even if he did not, he still qualifies by the statement given.

[jingram058]

Ichiro is, as they say, In Like Flint. Household name in a constant come and go era. If Sadaharu Oh is the Japanese Babe Ruth, Ichiro is Ty Cobb. It's supposed to be a Hall of greatness, not the Hall of very good. Ichiro is a once in a generation truly great ballplayer.

All the rest, we'll see.

[bk400]

Totally agree on Ichiro. I'd argue that he better than Ty Cobb when you factor the level of competition (Noting that it is unfair to compare across eras.)

I'd like to see Pettitte and Clemens in the HOF. I'm not convinced that steroids helps pitchers as much as hitters.

[commishbob]

Originally Posted by G1911

Wagner is almost a sure thing.

Jones and Beltran likely increase and move closer but miss.

Ichiro makes it, possibly at 100%

Sabathia makes it or makes it the next year.

No one else is a serious candidate.

I agree with each of these.

[Seven]

[QUOTE=bk400;2407818]

I'd like to see Pettitte and Clemens in the HOF. I'm not convinced that steroids helps pitchers as much as hitters.[/QUOTE]

PED's shorten recovery time, enhance reaction time and make muscles stronger and more durable. I'd make the argument that chances are the PED users that took them already possessed Hall of Fame talent, PED's just enhanced it.

Especially in cases of guys like Clemens, and Bonds. Steroids gave their careers a new life. Clemens was on a downswing before them. Bonds was putting up MVP caliber numbers still. In the case of Clemens it allowed him to turn back the clock and regain what he lost from his youth. In the case of Bonds, it showed us how an inner-circle Hall of Fame talent, could become a literal god amongst men.

[clydepepper]

Originally Posted by bk400

I'd like to see Pettitte and Clemens in the HOF. I'm not convinced that steroids helps pitchers as much as hitters.

PED's shorten recovery time, enhance reaction time and make muscles stronger and more durable. I'd make the argument that chances are the PED users that took them already possessed Hall of Fame talent, PED's just enhanced it.

Especially in cases of guys like Clemens, and Bonds. Steroids gave their careers a new life. Clemens was on a downswing before them. Bonds was putting up MVP caliber numbers still. In the case of Clemens it allowed him to turn back the clock and regain what he lost from his youth. In the case of Bonds, it showed us how an inner-circle Hall of Fame talent, could become a literal god amongst men.


The two best players of their time, IMO,...were barry bonds and Ken Griffey, Jr. One decided that because mcgwire and sosa were getting all the attention, while he was clearly a superior player already, he would cheat too.

The other one decided to continue to do things the RIGHT way- he got injured and aged like everyone else - on tbe LEVEL playing field.

It did not help that the one who decided to check was an entitled jerk, who stood on the shoulders of greats like his godfather and Hank Aaron and the other one, also a son of a star major leaguer, did things the RIGHT way with a broad smile and obvious joy in playing the game.

IMO, Baseball's greatest draw is that the average-sized person (albeit with hard work and a little self-made luck) could reasonably imagine himself being down in that dugout with the greats of the Game.

Loosing that connection has damaged the Game

[Peter_Spaeth]

Ichiro should be unanimous.
Wagner probably creeps over the line but I don't agree.
Sabathia should not be first ballot although obviously a HOFer sooner not later.
Beltran not yet.
Jones just may keep falling short -- not compelling.
Hernandez -- nah. As packs said, he's Johan Santana all over again.