Players not yet eligible for the HOF

[Peter_Spaeth]

As my collection is geared in part to the HOF, I never tire of the subject. Here is a list, by rookie year, of players not yet eligible but who would seem to have a chance as well as my assessment. I've arbitrarily cut this off in 2014 because anyone after that seems too new. Additions welcome as well as thoughts.

1995 Beltran (downgraded to maybe)
1997 Beltre (lock)
1999 Sabathia (likely)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely)
2002 Votto (likely)
2002 Mauer (likely)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (too soon to tell)
2011 Altuve (likely)
2011 Freeman (too soon to tell)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (unlikely)
2012 Harper (likely)
2013 Arenado (too soon to tell)
2013 Machado (too soon to tell)
2013 Cole (too soon to tell)
2014 Betts (too soon to tell)
2014 DeGrom (too soon to tell)

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As my collection is geared in part to the HOF, I never tire of the subject. Here is a list, by rookie year, of players not yet eligible but who would seem to have a chance as well as my assessment. I've arbitrarily cut this off in 2014 because anyone after that seems too new. Additions welcome as well as thoughts.

1995 Beltran (likely)

Beltran will be an interesting case study. Will the writers punish him for being a cheat like they have punished Bonds and Clemens? Although he wasn't formally punished, he was the only player named in the report on the Astros cheating scandal. Beltran lied about his involvement and eventually lost the job as Mets manager because of it.

He's also been rumored to be a steroid user like so many others.

Even ignoring all that, is he really a "likely" HOF candidate? 435 homers and 119 OPS+ with 1 top-5 MVP finish. I would argue that Jim Edmonds, who was a better player than Beltran, should get in before Beltran, but he's not getting in anytime soon.

[mrreality68]

Actually Peter that is a really good and most of your comments next to each are close to how I feel.
Injuries being the obvious concern that could derail some of these like Degrom.

Freddie Freeman is not to soon to tell. I would put him as likely but like all others has to continue to do what he has been doing for a few more years. I think the NL MVP in the Covid Shortened seasoned really help his case.

Cano I would not put on the list at all because he was likely until the PED's and now with that and losing the those games to add to his states I would not think he has any chance at all.

Harper with 2 NL MVP's I would put as a lock so as long as he is not hampered by injuries he is young enough to keep piling on.

Stanton to me is a lock or super close and he has an MVP and 2 silver slugger awards. HE is young enough and under contract long enough that as long as he stays healthy he will hit 500 HR's and put up other big numbers

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Beltran will be an interesting case study. Will the writers punish him for being a cheat like they have punished Bonds and Clemens? Although he wasn't formally punished, he was the only player named in the report on the Astros cheating scandal. Beltran lied about his involvement and eventually lost the job as Mets manager because of it.

He's also been rumored to be a steroid user like so many others.

Even ignoring all that, is he really a "likely" HOF candidate? 435 homers and 119 OPS+ with 1 top-5 MVP finish. I would argue that Jim Edmonds, who was a better player than Beltran, should get in before Beltran, but he's not getting in anytime soon.

70.1 WAR, 8th ranked CF by JAWS. But with the controversy I am changing him to a maybe.

[oldjudge]

I think Altuve is a coin flip at this point.Yes, he is a career .300+ hitter with an MVP, but he has not played at HOF levels the last few years. He has the potential to play himself out of a spot in Cooperstown. Plus, he is a member of those cheating Astros which will cost him some votes.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I think Altuve is a coin flip at this point.Yes, he is a career .300+ hitter with an MVP, but he has not played at HOF levels the last few years. He has the potential to play himself out of a spot in Cooperstown. Plus, he is a member of those cheating Astros which will cost him some votes.

He hit 31 HR last year and hit .278, that's pretty damn good for a 2b IMO. His only bad year was the short 2020.

[BioCRN]

2000 Francisco Rodriguez

...if voters get over that "1000 innings" hangup that's keeping down Billy Wagner.

On the manager side of things, Jim Leyland (1986 Traded/1987 base) is probably on the cusp of making it while 1979 Bruce Bochy is probably a sure-thing.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I'm leaning towards DeGrom being "unlikely" and that's generous. He's the same age as Kershaw. I know wins aren't everything, or even all that important anymore, but can you imagine a starting pitcher with under 100 wins making the hall??? Unless he figures out a way to stay on the mound, AND the injuries don't rob him of his effectiveness, it's a real possibility.

[G1911]

This is a good list. I have no idea what statistical general standards will be used for the pitchers after ~Verlander/Scherzer/Kershaw. They play so little that a new bar will have to be enacted to allow them in, but where those lines will emerge and be drawn is a mystery.

I'd call Beltran and Altuve maybe's for moral posturing and not performance. HOF Voting has grown increasingly political over time.

Then there's guys like Tulowitzki, Hanley, etc. that might sneak in via a vets committee some day, that don't beat the HOF average but the almost random dice rolls of the VC's might reasonably encompass.

[oldjudge]

Minute Maid park is a band box with a 315 ft left field line and only 360 to left center. Altuve only hit 12 HRs on the road last year. Playing in Houston is like playing in Boston with a much lower fence.

[dmats33312]

Can’t see how Mauer, Beltran, Votto, Posey, Altuve get in but Utley doesn’t. Might be some recency bias there but non of these players were better than Utley’s prime and most have less counting stats. Add in Utley has a championship that some of these players don’t and was the core for that to me he is as likely as them. If we are talking WAR only one of them is greater and one other has a chance to be.

[oldjudge]

Sabathia is pretty much Andy Pettitte, really good pitcher who falls a little short of being a HOFer. This is coming from a Yankee fan.

[Mike D.]

Chris Sale was a maybe but gets less likely by the day.

Craig Kimbrel? Joe Nathan? If relievers are in, these guys are in the ballpark.

If Utley gets in (and I think he’s got a shot) then maybe Pedroia or Kinsler
? Borderline, but Pedroia has the hardware and championships that may help.

[Mike D.]

Staying on the Red Sox, Xander and Devers feel undervalued and might be good to buy - long way to go for both but good starts.

[G1911]

And can't forget the GOAT southpaw, Hyun Jin Ryu.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I think Altuve is a coin flip at this point.Yes, he is a career .300+ hitter with an MVP, but he has not played at HOF levels the last few years. He has the potential to play himself out of a spot in Cooperstown. Plus, he is a member of those cheating Astros which will cost him some votes.

Could one of the reasons he hasn't been playing at a HOF level these past few years be because he couldn't cheat like he was before, during these past few years? If I had a vote, I would most definitely take that into serious consideration. But as Peter pointed out, his one really bad year was the shortened 2020 season. Still seems to be hitting well despite not always knowing what is coming.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by dmats33312

Can’t see how Mauer, Beltran, Votto, Posey, Altuve get in but Utley doesn’t. Might be some recency bias there but non of these players were better than Utley’s prime and most have less counting stats. Add in Utley has a championship that some of these players don’t and was the core for that to me he is as likely as them. If we are talking WAR only one of them is greater and one other has a chance to be.

Mauer wasn't better than Utley's prime? Seriously? The Gold Glove catcher who won 3 batting titles and an MVP while leading the league in slugging and OPS+ wasn't better than Utley? C'mon. Prime vs Prime, Mauer was better AND played a more important position AND was better at that position. None of that is a knock on Utley, who was an outstanding player for about 5 years and good player for a bunch more.

[G1911]

MAuer, Votto, Posey and Altuve all had better primes than Utley did. Utley and Beltran were largely accumulators (which is not a bad thing and often produces more total value).

[Steve D]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

On the manager side of things, Jim Leyland (1986 Traded/1987 base) is probably on the cusp of making it while 1979 Bruce Bochy is probably a sure-thing.

A couple of other managers to consider are Dusty Baker and Terry Francona. Baker just got his 2,000th win, and Francona is almost at 1,800; and Francona also has the two WS wins with the Red Sox. Every manager who won more than 2,000 games, is in the HOF, except Bochy and Baker.

Steve

[Peter_Spaeth]

Before game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, one of the Red Sox leaders, forget who now maybe Millar, came to Francona and said we've decided to skip batting practice. Francona barely looked up and said, OK. For that alone, he should be in the Hall.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Steve D

A couple of other managers to consider are Dusty Baker and Terry Francona. Baker just got his 2,000th win, and Francona is almost at 1,800; and Francona also has the two WS wins with the Red Sox. Every manager who won more than 2,000 games, is in the HOF, except Bochy and Baker.

Steve

Isn't Francona also the manager to finally beat the "Curse of the Bambino"? For that alone many people feel he deserves recognition in the HOF. Plus, he's from a truly great baseball family.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Steve D

A couple of other managers to consider are Dusty Baker and Terry Francona. Baker just got his 2,000th win, and Francona is almost at 1,800; and Francona also has the two WS wins with the Red Sox. Every manager who won more than 2,000 games, is in the HOF, except Bochy and Baker.

Steve

I'm holding graded RC's of both expecting their HOF to happen (Personal collection + few to sell). Baker is worth having because of it being a short print and sharing a RC with Don Baylor, too.

The 1971 Baker/Baylor is still in that near all-time high price range, but the 1982 Francona cards are still going for near commons prices.

[Misunderestimated]

I know the Closers are problematic but I would add Craig Kimbrel --- Rookie year 2010. I would put the active career Saves leader in the "likely" category. He should pass Dennis Eckersley, and 400 career Saves, this year as the Dodger's closer.
Also as an Executive the recently retired Theo Epstein is a "lock" for breaking baseball's two greatest curses.

[sreader3]

Adam Wainwright just won his 189th game tonight against 108 losses. Not saying he will make it or is deserving but stranger things have happened.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by sreader3

Adam Wainwright just won his 189th game tonight against 108 losses. Not saying he will make it or is deserving but stranger things have happened.

Good player but I do not think even close to being considered

[John1941]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Sabathia is pretty much Andy Pettitte, really good pitcher who falls a little short of being a HOFer. This is coming from a Yankee fan.

Also coming from a Yankees fan, I think 251 wins, 3093 K's, and a 116 ERA+ is a hall of famer.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by John1941

Also coming from a Yankees fan, I think 251 wins, 3093 K's, and a 116 ERA+ is a hall of famer.

Beats the pants off of Jack Morris in terms of how he compares to his contemporaries.

[Peter_Spaeth]

For completeness, just due to some strong counting stats, I will add to the list:
2005 Nelson Cruz (unlikely)

[Gorditadogg]

At first base I would add Goldschmidt and rank them:

Pujols
Votto
Goldschmidt
Freeman

Votto played at an All Star level until he was 35 and has 6 years as 7th or better in MVP voting. Led the league in OBP 7 times and OPS twice. 7-year peak WAR of 46.2. OPS+ of 146. Played his whole career with the Reds. I'd say he is borderline because he "only" has 331 HRs, and it looks like this may be his last year, but he's had a very nice career.

Goldschmidt has 5 years in the top 7 MVP voting and also has 4 Gold Gloves for some reason. OPS+ of 142, 7-year WAR of 42.2. BA is .294 with 286 HRs. I doubt he makes the HOF but he has better advanced stars than Eddie Murray for instance, but with only half the games that Murray played.

Freeman has 4 years in the top 7 MVP voting and 1 GG. His OPS+ is 139 but his 7-year peak WAR is only 33.4. BA of .296 with 274 HRs. He is only 32 years old, 2 years younger than Goldschmidt, so he could accumulate more and he hasn't slowed down yet. Still, while he has been remarkably consistent over his career so far, I'd say it's unlikely he makes the Hall.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Funny y9ou mention Goldschmidt, when I added Cruz I thought of adding him but decided not to when I saw his stats. That said, let's add him.

2011 Goldschmidt (unlikely)

[darkhorse9]

The big caveat I would put in Freddie Freeman is the "Braves Vacating Syndrome" or BVS.

It happened before for non-pitchers. Dale Murphy was a lot ci, until he left the Braves and his career declined.

Andrew Jones was a lock, until he left the Braves and he became questionable

Chipper Jones stayed as he was a first balloter.

We'll have to see if the same thing happens to Freddie.

[G1911]

David Wright hits the ballot in 2024. He’s got fantastic rate stats at an underrepresented position and is a New York favorite.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

David Wright hits the ballot in 2024. He’s got fantastic rate stats at an underrepresented position and is a New York favorite.

Just not seeing it as even a possibility.

Hall of Fame Statistics
Gray Ink
Batting - 88 (331), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 74 (283), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 36 (211), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Third Base (24th):
49.2 career WAR | 39.5 7yr-peak WAR | 44.3 JAWS | 5.0 WAR/162
Average HOF 3B (out of 15):
68.4 career WAR | 43.0 7yr-peak WAR | 55.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162

[BearBailey]

So harper is likely and machado is too soon to tell with better stats? Not to mention the defensive differences... sure Harper has 2 MVPs but Machado has the stats. Machado injuries were early in his career, Harpers are annually.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Just not seeing it as even a possibility.

Hall of Fame Statistics
Gray Ink
Batting - 88 (331), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor
Batting - 74 (283), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Batting - 36 (211), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Third Base (24th):
49.2 career WAR | 39.5 7yr-peak WAR | 44.3 JAWS | 5.0 WAR/162
Average HOF 3B (out of 15):
68.4 career WAR | 43.0 7yr-peak WAR | 55.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162

I don’t support his candidacy, but he’s close enough among 3B that his NY fan favorite status will get him considerable votes.

[rugbymarine]

Really enjoying the discussion, but this thread needs some cards!

1997 Bowman Chrome is underrated as a one of the better looking sets from the era. Love this Beltre RC.

[molenick]

Originally Posted by G1911

I don’t support his candidacy, but he’s close enough among 3B that his NY fan favorite status will get him considerable votes.

Sometimes being a NY fan favorite can help (Rizzuto, Hodges, Lazzeri, Combs, Gomez) but other times it doesn't help (Munson, Mattingly, Posada, Bernie Williams, Pettite, Hernandez). [Not meant as an extensive list...just names that came to mind.]

According to Baseball Reference, the most similar player to Kirby Puckett (first ballot) was Don Mattingly (topped out at 28%). I give credit to Puckett for playing a more important defensive position and for the post season...but Mattingly has an MVP and he was (and remains) a very popular player among Yankee fans.

Edited to add: I think it may help more in the Veteran's Committee where you basically need a favorable balance of people to get you in (like the Frankie Frisch years that got in Jesse Haines and George Kelly). I don't think it helps with the writers, who are from all over the country and where a pro-NY bias may be balanced by some anti-NY votes (or non-votes).

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by G1911

David Wright hits the ballot in 2024. He’s got fantastic rate stats at an underrepresented position and is a New York favorite.

6000 ABs and 242 homers - when your contemporaries include the better Adrian Beltre - just ain't enough for a 3B.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by molenick

According to Baseball Reference, the most similar player to Kirby Puckett (first ballot) was Don Mattingly (topped out at 28%). I give credit to Puckett for playing a more important defensive position and for the post season...but Mattingly has an MVP and he was (and remains) a very popular player among Yankee fans.

They're similar but not. Puckett got in because his career ended in an instant when he was still a great player at a high leverage defensive position. Mattingly hung around for years as a not-great (overall) 1B with little power. Kirby was a great player for 10 years and still going strong at retirement. Mattingly was great for 6 and was below average offensively while playing the easiest defensive position by the end.

[molenick]

Fair enough. I'm not a big fan of Mattingly getting in (I think Hernandez should be in before him)...just that he was a very popular NY player and not a terrible candidate and that never got him over 30%.

I'm guessing Wright tops out in the 20s...the rate stats are good but not good enough to make up for the low counting stats. A Mets HOFer but not an MLB HOFer. Third base is under-represented, but Rolen is creeping up each year and Beltre is a lock.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by molenick

Sometimes being a NY fan favorite can help (Rizzuto, Hodges, Lazzeri, Combs, Gomez) but other times it doesn't help (Munson, Mattingly, Posada, Bernie Williams, Pettite, Hernandez). [Not meant as an extensive list...just names that came to mind.]

According to Baseball Reference, the most similar player to Kirby Puckett (first ballot) was Don Mattingly (topped out at 28%). I give credit to Puckett for playing a more important defensive position and for the post season...but Mattingly has an MVP and he was (and remains) a very popular player among Yankee fans.

Edited to add: I think it may help more in the Veteran's Committee where you basically need a favorable balance of people to get you in (like the Frankie Frisch years that got in Jesse Haines and George Kelly). I don't think it helps with the writers, who are from all over the country and where a pro-NY bias may be balanced by some anti-NY votes (or non-votes).

Munson and Mattingly are good examples of what I'm talking about. Popular captain/leader of a NY team generates more HOF votes than they'd otherwise get. Mattingly is a 42 WAR 1B whose career nosedived at 28. He remains one of the most bought up 'when is he getting in' players though.

I'll bet Wright gets significant voting.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Tabe

6000 ABs and 242 homers - when your contemporaries include the better Adrian Beltre - just ain't enough for a 3B.

See post 35. Yes I agree. He is nowhere near as good as Beltre. Beltre is #3 among all 3B in WAR, 4th in JAWS, 7th in WAR 7. Beltre is not the standard of comparison for guys who may get into the HOF. Nor is Wright good enough statistically and I do not think he belongs. But statistics unfortunately are not the only factor.

[sreader3]

Here are the top 10 active pitchers in terms of wins (with age in parenthesis):

1. Justin Verlander (39) 231
2. Zack Greinke (38) 219
3. Max Scherzer (37) 195
4. Clayton Kershaw (34) 189
Adam Wainwright (40) 189
6. David Price (36) 155 L
7. Johnny Cueto (36) 135
8. Madison Bumgarner (32) 129
9. Gerrit Cole (31) 121
10. Lance Lynn (35) 115

Notice the dropoff after Wainwright.

The highest number of wins among pitchers under 30? Aaron Nola with -- 68.

The 300 win era is over. As is the 3000 strikeout era. The 200 win and 2000 strikeout thresholds are even questionable as requisite credentials.

The Hall will have to adjust unless it chooses to become a "hitters only" place.

That's why guys like Wainwright have a chance.

[Peter_Spaeth]

double post.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Wainwright; don't see it. He'll be judged by the same standards as Verlander etc.

Hall of Fame Statistics
Black Ink
Pitching - 28 (74), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 149 (118), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 88 (135), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 41 (74), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Starting Pitcher (126th):
46.1 career WAR | 36.1 7yr-peak WAR | 41.1 JAWS | 41.1 S-JAWS | 3.9 WAR/162
Average HOF P (out of 66):
73.0 career WAR | 49.8 7yr-peak WAR | 61.4 JAWS | 56.8 S-JAWS | 4.5 WAR/162

[sreader3]

I don't necessarily disagree about Wainwright Peter but I don't think there is a single active pitcher beyond the Top 4 who has any chance to meet traditional HOF standards. So we are facing the "Hall of Hitters" in the next quarter century unless they elevate more Jim Kaats from the eras committees.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by sreader3

I don't necessarily disagree about Wainwright Peter but I don't think there is a single active pitcher beyond the Top 4 who has any chance to meet traditional HOF standards. So we are facing the "Hall of Hitters" in the next quarter century unless they elevate more Jim Kaats from the eras committees.

As you say I think there will be new standards used to judge pitchers from, say, DeGrom on. Maybe the key metric will be games where the pitcher made it to the 4th inning before the manager went to the committee of castoffs and journeymen. I still can't get over Dave Roberts in the 2021 playoffs, who could not wait to yank Max Scherzer, a lock HOFer still seeming to be in his prime, in favor of some mediocre middle reliever. The new baseball I guess.

[RCMcKenzie]

I'd like to see the standards loosened like the NBA. Every player from your list and more, except for maybe Cole, ah heck, let him in too, and Michael Brantley, etc.

Another way to go, is to only allow Verlander and Pujols from that list. Famous players only. The best of the best.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by G1911

I don’t support his candidacy, but he’s close enough among 3B that his NY fan favorite status will get him considerable votes.

never mind point made by others

[eastonfalcon19]

Billy Wagner should be in. Not sure if anybody mentioned him or not.