MLB is not that easy - For some players it’s all downhill

[frankbmd]

What the hell am I looking for?

There have to be a number of players whose first year in the “bigs” was their best. Obviously all players who only played in one season would qualify, as would a number of obscure players whose ML career was limited to two or three years. However if you scan the lists of ROYs, it is hard to find a candidate. I haven’t.

For purposes of this exercise, players with a year in which they were brought up for a cup of coffee before their true rookie year are disqualified. All years count regardless of rookie status.

Let’s find the player with the best first year, who never had another year that was better. The longer their career the better.

I guessing a prewar player may be the winner as I haven't identified a reasonable post war candidate yet.

And just to legitimize this thread on a baseball card forum, if your nominee has a baseball card show it.

To get the ball rolling I will break this last rule and nominate

MARK FIDRYCH. 5 years

[doug.goodman]

I was going to say Freddie Lynn, but then looked at his 1979 stats.

Oh well,
Doug

[tedzan]

Hey Frank

Do you remember Kevin Maas' rookie year starting off the 1990 season with 10 HR's in just 72 AB's (a new record).

Furthermore, Kevin continued to hit 15 HR's in 133 AB's, which broke Wally Berger's old record.

Kevin hit 21 HR's in 79 games that season and batted .252

His MLB career ended in 1995.


TED Z

T206 Reference
.

[bocca001]

What about 1980 ROY Joe Charboneau. Hit .289 with 23 home runs, and nothing really after that. 3 years

[egri]

I nominate Joe Black, Harry Byrd and Angel Berroa, who all won Rookie of the Year and then never came close to matching their performance again.

[Jason19th]

Position Player - Kevin Seitzer- if he played 8 seasons at his rookie level he would have been a HOFER. He wasn’t a bad player thereafter and he played almost 15 years but he was very average after year one

Pitcher- Cal Eldred - went 11-2 with a 1.79 era and .98 whip over 14 starts. Had a long career as a starter and reliever but was always an average or slightly above average guy for the rest of his career

Pre war- Wally Moses - doesn’t quite fit but one of the odder stat lines you will see

[frankbmd]

Good ones so far.

Perhaps other credentials should be added to support your nominee.

FIDRYCH was in his rookie All-Star game.
He was second in Cy Young voting as well.
He also led the league in Complete Games with 24

[todeen]

1999 ROY Scott Williamson. Appeared in 62 games, 12-7 record, 2.51 ERA, Helped the 1999 Reds to a 90+ win season, but didn't go to the playoffs. They lost to the Mets in a one game playoff. He wasn't the same afterward, but he still had a 9 year career. I believe he won a world series with Boston in 2004.

[rats60]

Russ Ford went 26-6 1.65 ERA .881 WHIP 209 Ks 11.4 WAR as a rookie in 1910. He even has a t205 to commemorate the season.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by rats60

Russ Ford went 26-6 1.65 ERA .881 WHIP 209 Ks 11.4 WAR as a rookie in 1910. He even has a t205 to commemorate the season.

I thought this was the prewar player I was trying to find, but..........


He pitched 3 innings in 1909. My decision to exclude players with insignificant first years was based on not having to determine where to draw the line.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Arguably, Ichiro.

[gonzo]

Ralph Houk

Of his 20 years as a manager, his rookie season helming the 1961 Yankees was easily his best.

As a bonus, his career as a player stretched 91 games over 8 years, and his rookie year as a player was his most productive.

[maniac_73]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Arguably, Ichiro.

U being serious?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Ichiro was MVP his rookie year. Never was higher than 7th after that. Never had as many SB or RBI. Only topped his OPS once. Same with WAR.

[sycks22]

Ichiro can't be serious is it? Led the league in hits 7x's, hit .371, .352 and .351 in other seasons. He also had the most hits in a season with 262 in 2004. I wouldn't call that falling off.

[philliesphan]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Ichiro was MVP his rookie year. Never was higher than 7th after that. Never had as many SB or RBI. Only topped his OPS once. Same with WAR.

I would take Ichiro's 2004 over his 2001 any day - the only meaningful stat that was worse was fewer stolen bases.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by sycks22

Ichiro can't be serious is it? Led the league in hits 7x's, hit .371, .352 and .351 in other seasons. He also had the most hits in a season with 262 in 2004. I wouldn't call that falling off.

The question did not ask about falling off. It asked about which player's first season was his best. I said arguably, Ichiro's rookie MVP year was his best, although one could certainly argue 2004 was better.

[philliesphan]

How do you all feel about Fernando?

It's a bit hard, since 1981 was a strike-shortened season, but Fernando-mania was in full swing. Fernando was an All-Star and had many good years, but I think there's a valid argument to be made that his 1981 season was the best ever. Then six good seasons, and a decade of meh shortly thereafter

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by philliesphan

How do you all feel about Fernando?

It's a bit hard, since 1981 was a strike-shortened season, but Fernando-mania was in full swing. Fernando was an All-Star and had many good years, but I think there's a valid argument to be made that his 1981 season was the best ever. Then six good seasons, and a decade of meh shortly thereafter

I think his 85 season was in the same, pun intended, ballpark, no? 86 was up there too, more wins than 85 (21) but higher ERA.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The question did not ask about falling off. It asked about which player's first season was his best. I said arguably, Ichiro's rookie MVP year was his best, although one could certainly argue 2004 was better.

Wrong again Peter. The player’s best season has to be his first, which is also implied in the title of the thread.

I agree with the public outcry and disqualify Ichiro from further consideration.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If his rookie year was in fact his best, then he fits your question perfectly, although many of his later years may have been very good.

And I quote. Let’s find the player with the best firstnyear (SIC), who never had another year that was better.

I disqualify you as being qualified to disqualify me. LOL.

And I repeat. MVP his rookie year. Never higher than 7th after that.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by philliesphan

How do you all feel about Fernando?

It's a bit hard, since 1981 was a strike-shortened season, but Fernando-mania was in full swing. Fernando was an All-Star and had many good years, but I think there's a valid argument to be made that his 1981 season was the best ever. Then six good seasons, and a decade of meh shortly thereafter

Fernando was untouchable for the first half of his second season, until he saw teams for a second time.

But Fernando also pitched 17 innings in 1980, whic means 1981 should not be considered.

[hysell]

Also Fernando , did came up in the late tail end of 1980 ? So the strike year of 1981 would be season no #2 by Franks rules !

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If his rookie year was in fact his best, then he fits your question perfectly, although many of his later years may have been very good.

And I quote. Let’s find the player with the best firstnyear (SIC), who never had another year that was better.

I disqualify you as being qualified to disqualify me. LOL.

And I repeat. MVP his rookie year. Never higher than 7th after that.

“Best first year, who never had another year that was better.”

Clearly stated in the OP.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

“Best first year, who never had another year that was better.”

Clearly stated in the OP.

Right. So if 2001 was in fact his best year, and he never had another year that was better, he's a valid answer. And I say it's arguable that if he won the MVP that year and never finished higher than 7th afterwards, it was his best year.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Right. So if 2001 was in fact his best year, and he never had another year that was better, he's a valid answer. And I say it's arguable that if he won the MVP that year and never finished higher than 7th afterwards, it was his best year.

Argue with your mirror. Sayonara.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Argue with your mirror. Sayonara.

It may be more perceptive.

[Fred]

Crap, you took the first player that came to my mind with the bird...

Tony Oliva? He set his season "highs" for most runs, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns, OPS, total bases and slugging percentage in this season.

He won a batting title his rookie year, however he won another batting title 7 seasons later with a BA that a little higher than his rookie year (.337 vs .323).

Bottom line, he put up his best season numbers in his rookie year.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Right. So if 2001 was in fact his best year, and he never had another year that was better, he's a valid answer. And I say it's arguable that if he won the MVP that year and never finished higher than 7th afterwards, it was his best year.

I agree that Ichiro is in play and a viable guess. It must be determined whether 2001 is his best year, or whether 2004 is his best year. I would select 2001 because of the ROY, his MVP, making the playoffs (last time in Seattle), and the atmosphere that surrounded not only him, but Albert Pujols. Both jumped into the spotlight and took off racing.

One must also decide if Japan Professional baseball should count for anything.

[howard38]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

I thought this was the prewar player I was trying to find, but..........


He pitched 3 innings in 1909. My decision to exclude players with insignificant first years was based on not having to determine where to draw the line.

Could be Vean Gregg is the pre-war pitcher you were thinking of. For pre-war batters it would be hard to top jimmy Williams.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by howard38

Could be Vean Gregg is the pre-war pitcher you were thinking of. For pre-war batters it would be hard to top jimmy Williams.

Both Gregg and J Williams are excellent candidates with lengthy careers and progressive decline from their rookie years that you don’t need a micrometer to measure.

Both surpass anyone already mentioned and clearly satisfy the criteria. Both also had careers spanning at least 10 years.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by egri

I nominate Joe Black, Harry Byrd and Angel Berroa, who all won Rookie of the Year and then never came close to matching their performance again.

Byrd and Berroa are both disqualified by OP's criteria since they both played before their rookie years.

But Black is a terrific pick.

[brian1961]

Tom Tresh, Yankees, ROY 1962 with a great World Series performance.

Though this pitcher's 2nd year was a bit better than his first, from his 3rd year to his last, Gary Peters never came close to '63 / '64. A year or two later, Gary even led the AL in ERA, but the lousy-hitting ChiSox couldn't seem to give him much support, and he wound up with a 12-10 record that year.

Another pitcher whose first year was easily his best was Brooklyn Dodger great, Joe Black, with a ROY in '52, and 1-2 victories over the Yankees in the Series.

The last player I thought of was Charlie "King Kong" Keller of the 1939 Yankees. I just recall his batting average was really good his rookie year, then tailed off thereafter.

Well, at least these fine players had some strong moments of MLB glory.

--- Brian Powell

[ValKehl]

Satchel Paige: https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...aigesa01.shtml

[frankbmd]

Tresh had a cup of coffee, before his ROY year.

Keller is marginal unless you only consider his BA

Paige was okay as a 41 y/o rookie, and I guess qualifies, but like Ichiro, he had a significant body of work in an alt ML before getting to the bigs.

By the way Ichiro’s first two years in Japan would disqualify him.

And yes, Joe Black is good, much like Fidrych, but both had only 5-6 years in the ML.

I still like Jimmy Williams and Gregg better for their longer number of years to decline.

Thanks to all for their participation. My hunch though is there are still some sleepers yet to be uncovered.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

I thought this was the prewar player I was trying to find, but..........


He pitched 3 innings in 1909. My decision to exclude players with insignificant first years was based on not having to determine where to draw the line.

If not Ford, then Vean Gregg. 23-7 1.80 ERA 1.054 WHIP 8.8 WAR 10th in MVP voting. Led league in ERA, ERA+, WHIP and H/9. He had 2 more productive years, but neither as good as his first and then struggled with injuries.

If you are going by WAR it would be Fidrych, but another prewar pitcher would be Irv Young who had 9.3 WAR as a rookie and negative .8 for the rest of his career. His W/L wasn't that great 20-21, but 41 CG, 7 SH, 378 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.079 WHIP. Led league in WAR for pitchers, IP and CG. 2nd in shutouts, 5th in wins, Ks 6th in WHIP. He was on a really bad team the Braves went 51-103.

[orioles70]

Coco Laboy should certainly be mentioned. You wont stick around long going downhill and his stats show a giant slalom slope as opposed to a bunny run

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Peter_Spaeth]

pat Listach. Hideo Nomo if you don't count pre-MLB.

[chalupacollects]

How about Dale Alexander? 1929 rookie season 25HR, 137 RBI, .343 Avg. Never equaled those numbers again. Career lasted until 1933 though. Did hit .367 one year and another at .372 but never equaled the HR and RBI numbers again..

[rats60]

Here is the best modern era regular player, Mitchell Page with Oakland in 1977. He hit .307/.405/.521 with an OPS+ 154 WAR 6.1. His career WAR is 8.1. 21 HR 75 RBI 85 runs scored. He saw a significant drop his 2nd year to 2.3 WAR and the stuck around for 6 more years as a replacement level player under 1 WAR. Interesting that future Hofer Eddie Murray beat him out for ROY by 3 votes by hitting 6 more HR and driving in 13 more runs, but with much lower ave, obp, slg and only 3.2 WAR.

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

pat Listach.

This was my answer and I was checking the thread to see if anyone else got it. Good call, Peter!

[howard38]

Originally Posted by chalupacollects

How about Dale Alexander? 1929 rookie season 25HR, 137 RBI, .343 Avg. Never equaled those numbers again. Career lasted until 1933 though. Did hit .367 one year and another at .372 but never equaled the HR and RBI numbers again..

.367 & .372 was the same season when he played for two teams. He batted .372 for the Red Sox & .367 overall. His career was derailed when he was burned while being treated by a team trainer.

[frankbmd]

Threads like this can wander a bit. They also garner input from a broad variety of members and are generally well received. I suspect I am not alone in being amazed at what I can actually learn after following baseball for over 66 years.

1. I have never encountered the first name of Vean before.

2. When I noticed that Vean came in 10th in the 1911 MVP voting, I had to look into it. From 1911-1914 the first ever MVP voting was carried out annually for each league. This was sponsored by Chalmers, a new well known automobile company in Detroit and was duly called the Chalmers Award. There were a total of eight winners before the award was discontinued in 1915. Chalmers first filed for bankruptcy in 1917 and ceased all production by 1923. I don't believe I ever knew that Chalmers was responsible for the first MVP Award appropriately won by Cobb in the first year.

3. What stats are today's players going to be evaluated by in 100 years? If you were able to tell Vean that his WAR in 1911 was 8.0, I'm sure his reply would have been a big "HUH".

What was Babe Ruth's predominant Launch Angle and was his Exit Velocity up to snuff?

4. If we casually apply modern WAR to prewar players, other questions come to mind.

Would the Spartans have been more successful in the Peloponnesian Wars, if they had been using drones instead of Hoplites to destroy the olive fields in Attica?

Would the Athenians have been more successful with access to Urgent Care to avoid the devastating effects of the plague that contributed to their early losses?

You'll never know, nor will I.

[brob28]

I believe Ron Kittle would fit your criteria Frank, promising rookie year ('83) and a long slide thereafter.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by brob28

I believe Ron Kittle would fit your criteria Frank, promising rookie year ('83) and a long slide thereafter.

Negative. Cup of coffee.

[Bram99]

Since we are on the Net54, let's look at a player from 1954. Brooklyn Dodgers pitcher.

Not much of a first season - only 2 games. But both games started he pitched a full 9, won two complete games. Had 27 strikeouts in 2 games. 2-0. 2 complete games 13.5 SO/9. ERA 0.00.

First game allowed 3 singles and struck out 15.

Hurt his arm next season during spring training. Went 8-6, pitched in 2 games in 1955 WS and was done.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Negative. Cup of coffee.

Yup, there are a bunch of them. The problem I alluded to is determining the difference between one cup and two cups, which of course is further complicated by the varying volume of the cups.

[sando69]

hi frank-
I fear we have ALL been haunted, at one time or another, in regards to (at least in baseball terms), the volume of OUR cups!
great post!

[ejharrington]

Ed VandeBerg Seattle 1982 led league in games pitched and never had a year as good again.

[frankbmd]

Rocco Baldelli was a top prospect, whose first and second years with the Rays were essentially identically before being diagnosed with a chronic illness which curtailed his career and effectiveness.

Remarkably he has managed to hang around in the bigs this year with the Twins.