Market Manipulation: Can it Happen Again?

[samosa4u]

The boom of 2016 is a subject that has always fascinated me. I have read many posts on here and there are many competing theories as to what caused this. One of the popular ones is that a bunch of wealthy individuals bid like crazy on EX-MT to NM graded cards, and this resulted in the "explosion" of the higher graded examples.

Now here is my question: if it was that simple, in other words, if all it took was a bunch of rich guys to bid like crazy on certain cards, then why wasn't something like this done in the past? The insane prices that cards were bringing in last summer is something that I have never seen before. Also, why have they not done it again since then? Is it possible that these individuals who participated in manipulating the prices of cards will never do it again?

[swarmee]

Still happening, just not on the same cards. It's always going on with Michael Jordan cards. Until Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd team up to stick it to the Duke brothers, it is always a possibility to happen.

My first real investment scheme was with Beanie Babies back in high school, because retired ones went immediately from $7 (store price) to $50-75 the day they were retired. However, we had a store in the mall that would still get shipments of retired beanbags. So we would get there when they put them on the shelf, buy them, and resell them. Had some rare ones as well; I realized we were in a fad market, so when the first price guide (yes, there were beanie price guides) showed a down arrow, I sold all of the ones worth more than $5 for a total of $2000. So if you notice it happening, that's a great time to sell your card and hope to buy on the crash.

Beanie babies lol

[Steve D]

I think they've just moved on to modern-day rookies.

Why are '89UD Griffey Jr PSA 10s going for $600?

Why are Topps Mike Trout PSA 10 RC going for upwards of $500?

Why are Kershaws going for $200+

Same thing with Bonds, McGwire and Clemens RCs.

'82 Topps Traded Ripken Jr PSA 9s are suddenly going for around $200?


Steve

[bnorth]

The card market is always being manipulated. It is very easy because most collectors only care about the card. Just look at all the scum in the hobby and how people line up to buy from them. I have even watched it being done on this forum before.

[drcy]

If the price of, say, a PSA 10 Mike Schmidt rookie card is 'manipulated' to $100,000, it doesn't matter if you don't buy one.

Having never spend $50,000 on a PSA Topps Sandy Koufax or Nolan Ryan, I can't say that I've been manipulated.

[drcy]

"So you've never been shill bid?"
David: "Good point."

[e107collector]

1952 topps mantle's in PSA 8.

One just sold over the weekend for $384,000.

A few over the past year or so in PSA 8 sold for $500 - $600K+.

[WWG]

Originally Posted by e107collector

1952 topps mantle's in PSA 8.

One just sold over the weekend for $384,000.

A few over the past year or so in PSA 8 sold for $500 - $600K+.

One sold for as little as $282K just a few weeks ago.

https://www.huntauctions.com/live/im...=314&lot_qual=

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by WWG

One sold for as little as $282K just a few weeks ago.

https://www.huntauctions.com/live/im...=314&lot_qual=

we will see that one listed again somewhere else.

there is a 100,000+ premium on the better centered cards though

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

yeah why does everyone assume cards in the same grade will sell for the same price? Still big time variations at the sgc/psa "8" grade level

[packs]

Everyone is talking about PSA 8 Mantles so it seems like you'd only have to worry about manipulation at the highest level, which doesn't really have much of an affect on most collectors. If you want to manipulate at the low level, it'll take you forever to do it. In summation, I'd like to posit that it won't ever matter much to most of us.

[Baseball Bob]

Who's to say that the bulk of the money is coming in from individuals? The secrecy of auctions makes that hard to substantiate. There is a lot of cash held in private equity firms, and it may be that they are market participants as they are looking for high rate of return investments. No evidence of collusion to drive up prices, either. I think that, like any market, there will be a severe correction as supply outstrips demand, and even the vaunted Mantles will take a hard fall. When price growth is following an exponetial trend, watch out!

[WWG]

Yes, not all PSA 8's are created equal but pretty big price difference though in a matter of a few months. Both look pretty damn nice to me.

$660K 2/2017

660.jpg

$282K 6/2017

282.jpg

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

could be just the scans but the lower realized priced 8 looks washed out vs. the top one. It's also in an old holder. Why wouldn't the AH reholder it before selling? dumb

[MVSNYC]

The Hunt example was poorly centered, and in an old flip.

The Heritage example was not well centered, and corners looked a little soft.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by ajjohnsonsoxfan

could be just the scans but the lower realized priced 8 looks washed out vs. the top one. It's also in an old holder. Why wouldn't the AH reholder it before selling? dumb

I would be scared to send a 400k card in the mail for a 20 dollar holder...but assuming people with that type of money have their ways

[WWG]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

The Hunt example was poorly centered, and in an old flip.

The Heritage example was not well centered, and corners looked a little soft.

So if both cards have their faults what do you equate the almost $400K difference in price?

[Mdmtx]

Every time I buy a 300k card I look for the following:

Oh wait.... 300k. Lol. Lol.

[Aaron Seefeldt]

Originally Posted by WWG

So if both cards have their faults what do you equate the almost $400K difference in price?

1 less bidder can make all the difference.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

The Hunt example was poorly centered, and in an old flip.

The Heritage example was not well centered, and corners looked a little soft.

The Heritage example was not well centered?? Seriously??

[e107collector]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The Heritage example was not well centered?? Seriously??

I think he was referring to the one sold over the weekend. The one pictured above is extremely well centered, imo.

Aaron, I agree, if one less bidder gets taken from the equation, prices can vary greatly.

Tony

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by e107collector

I think he was referring to the one sold over the weekend. The one pictured above is extremely well centered, imo.

Aaron, I agree, if one less bidder gets taken from the equation, prices can vary greatly.

Tony

Oh, I see.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Mdmtx

Every time I buy a 300k card I look for the following:

Oh wait.... 300k. Lol. Lol.

Just 1-2 less 0's, or so, and I can be there too!!
These guys paying 500k for a '52 Mantle could almost lose a decent "house" of value on the downside.

[Mdmtx]

Originally Posted by Leon

Just 1-2 less 0's, or so, and I can be there too!!
These guys paying 500k for a '52 Mantle could almost lose a decent "house" of value on the downside.

Leon,

I'm nearly a millionaire anyway. I have all the zeroes, just searching for a 1.

[Jobu]

I have the 1 but lack the 0s. Maybe we can get together and make something happen!

Originally Posted by Mdmtx

Leon,

I'm nearly a millionaire anyway. I have all the zeroes, just searching for a 1.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Jobu

I have the 1 but lack the 0s. Maybe we can get together and make something happen!

I have the full 1000000, but it's in binary.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Baseball Bob

Who's to say that the bulk of the money is coming in from individuals? The secrecy of auctions makes that hard to substantiate. There is a lot of cash held in private equity firms, and it may be that they are market participants as they are looking for high rate of return investments. No evidence of collusion to drive up prices, either.

Yes, I agree that no evidence exists, but there are a lot of questions that remain unanswered. For example, there was a popular thread started last summer titled “Changing of the Guard: The Commoditization of Sportscards,” and here is what the OP (Brent) wrote:

Yes, I do believe this hobby is getting pushed hard by a limited number of collector/investors. Not sure exactly how many heavy investors there are, but I’d say the people most responsible number more than 10 and probably less than 30.

This sentence freaked me out for some reason. More than 10 and probably less than 30? Really? I would love to find out who these people are. So in 2016 these guys just suddenly went nuts buying cards and then stopped?

Originally Posted by packs

Everyone is talking about PSA 8 Mantles so it seems like you'd only have to worry about manipulation at the highest level, which doesn't really have much of an affect on most collectors. If you want to manipulate at the low level, it'll take you forever to do it. In summation, I'd like to posit that it won't ever matter much to most of us.

The lower level cards were on fire as well. I think that people just use the PSA 8 Mantle to show how bad this whole thing was. The lower-end stuff dropped in value too.

[egri]

Originally Posted by packs

If you want to manipulate at the low level, it'll take you forever to do it. In summation, I'd like to posit that it won't ever matter much to most of us.

It is doable though. Case in point that (thankfully former) member here who is cornering the market on 1952 Topps Cole Bartirome cards.

[packs]

Everything is do-able but what was the pay off? He'd have to sell only a few a year if he wanted to maintain the value. If he were to sell off his collection he'd dilute the market again. And if he didn't acquire a majority of the copies, he probably helped other people make money who already had the card.