Are T213-1 and T215-1 even scarcer than previously thought?

[The Nasty Nati]

I realize the theory on whether t213 Coupon Type 1 and t215 Red Cross Type 1 should or should not be considered T260s is an endless debate on this board, but for the sake of this thread let's pretend that they are T206s.

According to T206 Resource, the T215-1 is ranked around 9th and the T213-1 is ranked around 11th in scarcity. I'm not saying this is exact science as population reports aren't completely accurate and PSA only recently labeled back variations on their slabs, but after looking at the population numbers I was surprised to find just how rare these "pseudo T206s" are to their counterparts.

(Note: PSA doesn't have a pop report on Blank Backs and they weren't ever distributed to the public like other backs so I left them out)


1. Ty Cobb- 16
2. Old Mill Brown- 1
3. Lenox Brown- 14
4. Broad Leaf 460 - 32
5. Drum 350- 130
6. Uzit- 125
7. Hindu Red- 160
8. Lenox Black- 196
** Red Cross Type 1- 34
9. Broad Leaf 350- 287
10. Blank Back- N/A
** Coupon Type 1- 96
11. Carolina Brights- 436
12. Piedmont 350-460 Factory 42- 150
13. American Beauty 460- 110
14. Hindu Brown-1,066
15. American Beauty No Frame- 146

Now when you rearrange the scarcity list by PSA population I discovered that t215-1 is ranked 5th not 9th and t213-1 is ranked 6th and not 11th in scarcity.

1. Old Mill Brown- 1
2. Lenox Brown- 14
3. Ty Cobb- 16
4. Broad Leaf 460- 32
5. Red Cross Type 1- 34
6. Coupon Type 1- 96
7. American Beauty 460- 110
8. Uzit- 125
9. Drum 350- 130
10. American Beauty No Frame- 146
11. Piedmont 350-460 Factory 42- 150
12. Hindu Red- 160
13. Lenox Black- 196
14. Broad Leaf 350- 287
15. Carolina Brights- 436
16. Hindu Brown-1,066

Again I know this isn't the most ideal way to determine back scarcity as the registry isn't always accurate not to mention that I didn't take into account SGC's registry, but it does show that T215-1 and T213-1 are much rarer than was previously thought in my opinion.

What do you guys think, how would you rank T215-1 and T213-1 in scarcity?

[buymycards]

Hi,
That is interesting. The pop report isn't accurate, but that is pretty much the only resource that we have.

You didn't include T215-2. Is that because they were issued in 1912-13?

I wonder how accurate the T215-1 pop is. Does PSA differentiate between Type 1 and Type 2?

If I didn't have to go to work in a few minutes, I would add the SGC pop reports. Maybe later tonight.

Thanks for the interesting question.

Rick

[ullmandds]

i only consider type I's of both t213/t215 as t206 due to the brown print...whereas the others have blue and in my opinion should not be included in t206.

regardless...they are super rare...and tough...and are already included in many peoples runs.

as such I believe the prices should be comparable to the rare t206 backs they mirror.

[darwinbulldog]

I would say for something to be worthy of classification as a T206 it must use some subset of the checklisted 524 white border cards, have been issued within the years 1909-1911 and have the name and team designation in dark brown print along the bottom border. If it was issued later than 1911 or has the text in blue it shouldn't qualify. So yes, that rules out T213-2, T213-3, and T215-2. Otherwise I include the Coupons and Red Crosses, but I'm not knowledgeable enough about T206 backs to speak about relative scarcity of the various backs. It wouldn't surprise me if "T213-1" and "T215-1" are tougher than previously believed, but a difference of, say, five spots in the ordinal ranking in that portion of the list isn't especially meaningful compared to the difference between 1st place and 6th place.

[Jobu]

Here are a few good articles on the difficulty of T206 backs, though they do not mention T213-1 or t215-1:

https://www.psacard.com/Articles/Art...ifferent-backs

https://www.psacard.com/Articles/Art...ifferent-backs

[The Nasty Nati]

Yeah I didn't include the t215-2 because they weren't printed until after the T206 were produced. The t215-2 and the t213-2 also have blue font on the front which definitely don't make it a T206 as well.

Personally I believe the t213-1 and t215-1 should be considered part of the T206, but this thread is less about arguing that point but rather show that these two backs are even rarer than perceived.

That would be great if you could add the SGC pop reports in as well. I didn't know an easy way to do it since their registry isn't the greatest when searching for backs. And yes PSA does differentiate between the Type 1s and Type 2s as they label the different types on the slabs and you can only look up the Coupon Type 1s and Red Cross Type 1s in the population report under the year 1910.

Originally Posted by buymycards

Hi,
That is interesting. The pop report isn't accurate, but that is pretty much the only resource that we have.

You didn't include T215-2. Is that because they were issued in 1912-13?

I wonder how accurate the T215-1 pop is. Does PSA differentiate between Type 1 and Type 2?

If I didn't have to go to work in a few minutes, I would add the SGC pop reports. Maybe later tonight.

Thanks for the interesting question.

Rick

[The Nasty Nati]

I think a difference of 5 spots is pretty big. T206 resource estimated that the T215 Red Cross Type 1 was around Broad Leaf 350 territory and the T213 Coupon Type 1 to be around Carolina Brights scarcity. Now when rearranging the order based off of the PSA population both the T215-1 and T213-1 are considered scarcer than Uzit, Drum, Hindu Red, Lenox Black, and Broad Leaf 350...now all of a sudden the T213-1 and T215-1 are scarcer than some real heavy hitters.

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

I would say for something to be worthy of classification as a T206 it must use some subset of the checklisted 524 white border cards, have been issued within the years 1909-1911 and have the name and team designation in dark brown print along the bottom border. If it was issued later than 1911 or has the text in blue it shouldn't qualify. So yes, that rules out T213-2, T213-3, and T215-2. Otherwise I include the Coupons and Red Crosses, but I'm not knowledgeable enough about T206 backs to speak about relative scarcity of the various backs. It wouldn't surprise me if "T213-1" and "T215-1" are tougher than previously believed, but a difference of, say, five spots in the ordinal ranking in that portion of the list isn't especially meaningful compared to the difference between 1st place and 6th place.

[DeanH3]

Here's a link to SGC pop report for t213-1. They list them under 1910 coupon. Hope it works.

http://www.sgccard.com/PopulationReport.aspx?setid=5243

[The Nasty Nati]

So I took the time to look through the pop report of SGC too and I combined pop reports of both PSA and SGC and I discovered some very interesting results.

I couldn't find an accurate pop report for Lenox Brown, Red Cross Type 1, Piedmont Factory 42, AB 460, and AB 350 No Frame because SGC does not note these designations (or year) so I did a rough estimate by simply doubling their PSA pop report.

Now when I rearrange the scarcity list based off combined pop of PSA and SGC you get this list:

1. Old Mill Brown- 1
2. Ty Cobb- 21
3. Lenox Brown- 28 (*SGC doesn’t note Brown Lenox in pop report)
4. Red Cross – Type 1- 68 (*SGC doesn’t note 1910 Red Cross in pop report)
5. Broad Leaf 460- 73
6. Drum 350- 218
7. American Beauty 460- 220 (*Can’t search for 1911 AB in SGC pop report)
8. Uzit- 242
9. Hindu Red- 277
10. Coupon Type 1- 284
11. American Beauty No Frame- 292 (*SGC doesn’t note No Frame in pop report)
12. Piedmont 350-460 Factory 42- 300 (*SGC doesn’t note Fact 42 in pop report)
13. Lenox Black- 412
14. Broad Leaf 350- 498
15. Carolina Brights- 700
16. Hindu Brown-2,149

Based off these combined PSA and SGC population T215-1 are now ranked 4th in scarcity and T213-1 is now 10th.

Again this isn't completely accurate as we all know that there is a lot of cross grading and for the backs mentioned above I couldn't get an accurate pop number so I 'guesstimated' the numbers by doubling their PSA pop number.

Still, what I've learned is that a few backs were scarcer and some not as scarce as previously thought. The biggest surprises were T215-1, AB 460, Lenox Black, and Broad Leaf 350.

Not As Scarce:

• Lenox Black could be 13th and not 8th.
• Broad Leaf 350 could be 14th and not 9th.
• Carolina Brights could be 15th and not 11th
• Uzit could be 8th and not 6th in rarity.
• Hindu Red could be 9th and not 7th in rarity

Scarcer:

• Red Cross Type 1 could be 4th and not 9th in rarity
• American Beauty 460 could be 7th and not 13th in rarity, making it potentially rarer than Uzit, Hindu Red, Lenox Black, Broad Leaf 350, and Carolina Brights

Spot On:

• Coupon Type 1 is in fact accurately around 10th in scarcity as T206 Resource has noted

[brass_rat]

SGC does break out the T215-1 and T215-2 sets in their pop reports.

Here is a link to the T215-1 set:
http://www.sgccard.com/PopulationReport.aspx?setid=3890

They list 145 graded. There are a number of instances of incorrect labeling, as they sometimes grade Type 2 cards as Type 1, and vice versa. From what I have observed, there's no obvious bias as to which are labeled incorrectly more often, so I think you can take it as a decent number.

Just for additional reference, here's a link to the T215-2 pop report... Currently 135 graded.
http://www.sgccard.com/PopulationReport.aspx?setid=1433

Cheers,
Steve

[The Nasty Nati]

Originally Posted by brass_rat

SGC does break out the T215-1 and T215-2 sets in their pop reports.

Here is a link to the T215-1 set:
http://www.sgccard.com/PopulationReport.aspx?setid=3890

They list 145 graded. There are a number of instances of incorrect labeling, as they sometimes grade Type 2 cards as Type 1, and vice versa. From what I have observed, there's no obvious bias as to which are labeled incorrectly more often, so I think you can take it as a decent number.

Just for additional reference, here's a link to the T215-2 pop report... Currently 135 graded.
http://www.sgccard.com/PopulationReport.aspx?setid=1433

Cheers,
Steve

Thanks Steve, I wasn't too sure whether that was truly an accurate representation of T215 type 1 since it runs into 1912. I wish there were a way to determine which cards came from 1910-11, because obviously 1912 would not make it a t206. Anyway, with this new information the total combined pop report for SGC and PSA for the T215-1 would now be 179.

Readjusted the scarcity ranking would now be this, making it the 5th rarest :


1. Old Mill Brown- 1
2. Ty Cobb- 21
3. Lenox Brown- 28 (*SGC doesn’t note Brown Lenox in pop report so I doubled the number from the PSA pop)
4. Broad Leaf 460- 73
5. Red Cross – Type 1- 179
6. Drum 350- 218
7. American Beauty 460- 220 (*Can’t search for 1911 AB in SGC pop report so I doubled the number from the PSA pop)
8. Uzit- 242
9. Hindu Red- 277
10. Coupon Type 1- 284
11. American Beauty No Frame- 292 (*SGC doesn’t note No Frame in pop report so I doubled the number from the PSA pop)
12. Piedmont 350-460 Factory 42- 300 (*SGC doesn’t note Fact 42 in pop report so I doubled the number from the PSA pop)
13. Lenox Black- 412
14. Broad Leaf 350- 498
15. Carolina Brights- 700
16. Hindu Brown-2,149

I'm still very surprised by the results of the following...

Not As Scarce:

• Lenox Black could be 13th and not 8th.
• Broad Leaf 350 could be 14th and not 9th.
• Carolina Brights could be 15th and not 11th
• Uzit could be 8th and not 6th in rarity.
• Hindu Red could be 9th and not 7th in rarity

Scarcer:
• Red Cross Type 1 could be 5th and not 9th in rarity
• American Beauty 460 could be 7th and not 13th in rarity making it potentially rarer than Uzit, Hindu Red, Lenox Black, Broad Leaf 350, and Carolina Brights...admittedly it's hard to tell though because PSA only recently broke down the different AB designations.

Spot On:
• Coupon Type 1 is in fact accurately around 10th in scarcity as T206 Resource has noted

[Brian Weisner]

FYI.... PSA has graded 1690 American Beauties, but they don't have them broken down by series, because they only started adding that info to the flips a few years ago...

Be well Brian

[The Nasty Nati]

Originally Posted by Brian Weisner

FYI.... PSA has graded 1690 American Beauties, but they don't have them broken down by series, because they only started adding that info to the flips a few years ago...

Be well Brian

Yeah that's very true Brian. My population numbers for the different American Beauties and the Piedmont 42s definitely aren't very accurate because of what you mentioned and so it really is hard to tell where they are in the scarcity scale.

That being said I think the T215-1 without a doubt is much scarcer than was previously perceived. The T213-1 while still very scarce is still around the 10th rarest if we include it in the t206 series.