HOF "temporary bumps"?

[MCoxon]

Wondering for long time collectors, do you notice a short-term spike in RCs for newly elected HOFers? Do those spiked prices then revert back to the pre-election levels after a while, for a person expected to make it? Like Griffey? (I'm guessing it's different for someone like, say, Minnie Minoso who if elected would be a surprise)

As an example, for fun I looked at '89 Griffey UD cards on Dec. 30 2015 and yesterday.

I bought a PSA 9 for ~$50 on Dec. 30. There were several other BINs in the $50 range on eBay that day.

On Jan 7-8, eBAY "sold listing" prices were:

$87 (bid)
$80 (bid)
$89 (BIN)
$93 (bid)
$89 (bid)
$78 (bid)
$85 (BO accepted)
$81 (bid)
$102 (bid)
$76 (bid)
$88
$95
$127
....

I had to stop - so many were sold I don't have time to list every one.

Is this price bump typical? And will it stay?

[Beatles Guy]

The prices will get back to normal once the surge of new buyers interested in HOF rookie cards dies down. It's the same when a player dies. I've been holding off on getting a Yogi RC until the prices settle a bit for that reason.

[MCoxon]

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense and was what I was suspecting, but I haven't seen enough of the full cycles (only really started collecting again about 10 months ago).

Seems like there could be a way to time purchases, e.g.,

1) buy a bunch of old-time players on hopes they get elected in the next veteran's committee vote (e.g., Minoso, Oliva, etc.),

2) buy players who are old but not yet dead (e.g., Mays, Aaron)

3) Avoid buying recently deceased, e.g., Banks, Berra, or those who are in the spotlight e.g., Jackie Robinson when his movie came out.

Of course, I say that - but ultimately I (and others) will still collect what they love !

[JustinD]

Perfectly normal.


Worst time to buy any player cards are prior or just after a HOF election or after a death. Usually lasts about 8-12 months. Everyone knew Griffey was getting in and the investors were prepping for awhile. I would assume a 9 will go to normal pricing of about 30-35 dollars by this time next year.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by JustinD

Perfectly normal.


Worst time to buy any player cards are prior or just after a HOF election or after a death. Usually lasts about 8-12 months. Everyone knew Griffey was getting in and the investors were prepping for awhile. I would assume a 9 will go to normal pricing of about 30-35 dollars by this time next year.

I really surprised there is even a bump on an expected HOF guy..its not like 2 weeks ago we didn't think Griffey would be a HOF....if it was someone 5th or 6th down on the list maybe theres something there. (but then again that HOF guy wouldn't be that popular of a guy unless its Bonds or something) ..don't outthink yourself if you are buying and reselling...most potential buyers are buying from the same places as you...and people are paying buyers premium or ebay selling premium...if its something you think a few years from now could go up that's different but quick buck thinking will make you go nuts...

[almostdone]

I think the bump in price isn't from collectors who suddenly want a card but rather those who collected as a kid or remember the 80's and 90's boom. They are usually still sports fans but Griffey,in this case, is suddenly leading the sports shows and guys think "I alwYs wanted that rookie card" go on eBay and bam, sudden price spike. They show it off to family or friends then eventually put it in a drawer and forget about it. A year or two later they find it, sell it for a loss and move on.
I've been a Griffey fan and collector since he came up and everyone knew it but it wasn't until this week when these I knew asked me about him. Makes sense. Suddenly in everyone's mind for a bit then life moves on.
Drew

[MCoxon]

Fascinating. After the bump right after the HOF election, where average eBay sold listings were in the $80-90 range on January 7-8, the sold listing prices on eBay as of Jan 10-11 have fallen back into the $60-65 range:

$61
$63
$53
$67
$59
$63
$64
$65
$61
...

By Jan 15-20 then, I guess the prices will fall back even further. Someone could do their PhD thesis on pricing phenomena like these...

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by MCoxon

By Jan 15-20 then, I guess the prices will fall back even further. Someone could do their PhD thesis on pricing phenomena like these...

Been plenty, look under "group psychosis".

Or as Warhol might say just quick fifteen minutes of fame.

Been happening forever, with everything...check the price on a Princess Diana Beanie Baby now and after her passing. You could have tossed away 2 grand or got it now for a fiver.